the galah

i would characterise the above post as being realistic. but what brodie and i and others are saying is we don't believe industry leadership is being realistic. when brodie and i and others comment along similar lines you sometimes call that appraoch as negative.its all because its a negative reality. Money is always such a significant factor,whether it be now or in the future. currently hrnz leaderships thinking is to do what they can to retain the bigger players in the industry by,at this point in time, providing them money rewards via bigger stakes and bonuses. So whats hrnz's strategy when they run out of money to provide the current level of money in the future. Will those decision makers even be around to deal with the consequences of their current decision making? The industry still has a lot of positives going foward. Its just,if we have future administration who come up with a workable plan to maximise those positives, they will be hamstrung by being strapped for cash because of what many believe is the current unsustainable business plan. anyways,we all want to see the indutsry prosper,but we just differ on how that is achieved.

its shaping up as heading towards a close 3 way finish between orange ,hall and mcdonald.. the tab odds are still very short for all 3 and not really worth investing on. even the odd of the drivers who have little chance seem way too short. but looking at the horses the drivers have drawn,it could be any of the 3 i mention winning. Orange has the better upcoming drivers but still is a way off the leaders and mcdonald and hall both have some handy drives and they could keep accumulating the points and hold the lead. the german may keep accumulating,but really the horses he has drawn count him out of any chance of winning. the final heat on tuesday,orange,hall and mcdonald all look like they are on horses who would be unlikely to run in the first 3. That last heat has quite a difference in recent form of the runners and its not really a fitting final race to finish on. You would think hrnz should have programmed something more even on cup day to be fair to the drivers..

watching the racing at cambridge tonight. Those world drivers champs races have really lifted the bar by a long way as far as racing quality goes. Each driver out to achieve the best possible placing with no pre conceived plan to help anyone else,every horse being driven well and all punters clearly able to understand their drivers every moves.Also 10 starters instead of the normal 6 we see at the average meetings up there. It just goes to show that cambridge can provide a high quality product to bet on even with the horses that race mid week and on the track they have.

the flip side to that is what i've always suggested. g dixon is a honest trainer who's horses run on their natural abilities.I'm sure he uses a good vet and the advantages that go with that,like all the big stables with wealthy owners,but thats different from using something that would give you an unfair advantage.Thats why i think leap to fame and his connections are so great and deserve what they win. Thats my opinion gamma.You've always been a dixon fan and followed his horses closely,so i assume that is part of what you respect and admire about him.

i have never been to kaikoura races,but with all the campervans in the middle,i always wonder whether people get to see much of the races anyway. it looks like those leaning on the rail on the inside part of the track wouldn't see anymore than 1/3 of the race at best and the same would apply to those on ground level on the outside part of the track,which i suppose is the majority of people. Do they have a big screen tv or something so people attending can actually see,or is the day more about being there than actually seeing the races..ii like to see the races myself,but thats just me. anyways,the long range forceast for next week has the temperatures for christchurch for the week all around 16-17 degrees with a bit of a wind,as is normal at this time of the year. i watched last year the ausie presenter say just how cold it was and how cold the wind was ,inferring it wasn't a nice day. Well mate,crikey this year looks like it may be colder. i remember when i was a lad the sun used to come out more in canterbury in november,at least thats how i remember it. personally,if i was in charge i would try and get cup week moved to mid december,,then the place would go off like the old days. warmer weather ,christmas functions for both cup and show day. Makes perfect sense to me. i wonder how the pre sales have been going. i just had a look. still available are the $90 per person for an infield ticket,$35 for standing up the straight. No i'm not as young as i once was so don't want to get too cold. maybe i should go for the $485 per ticket on the 2nd floor of the main grandstand where i can have a truly refined hospitality experience or maybe the marquee ,for one of the more prestigious racing and entertainment packages or maybe immerse myself in the vibrancy of the ned lawn for $370 where i can indulge myself in the premier taste of the ned wine. i had originally planned on buying a ticket to the grey goose terrace and planned to take the opportunity to berate robbie close for that mounga drive at westport,but luckliy for the goose my wife talked me out of that. hang on,'ve just checked my bank balance and realise i will have to resort to jumping the fence when no ones looking,just like the good old days. I remeber those days,we would rock up nice and early sneeking a park in a quiet back street not to far from the track.That back street no longer there these days. Then we would walk with the crowd taking in the sunshine,yes the sun used to come out more,back when i was younger,then we would wait and stand around near the gates hoping some giving member of the public would slip us a ticket so we could get in for free. Those were the days. we used to always get one in the end and that way we got to keep our punting money. Mind you the costs these days are too steep for anyone to be giving any tickets away.I also remember getting my licence and getting in for free. then I would go in do a loop of the turnstiles in a different area,get a ticket on the way out,give to my brother and then show my licence again as we both got in for free. No flies on me. oops,i'm slipping back down memory lane. Next thing i will start talking about the day,when i was young,when lord module won the cup ,when the siren went after the race and the whole racecourse,all 20,000 plus immediately burst into chatter, That was about the only time i could say i've exoerienced where you could cut the atmosphere with a knife,the place was so abuzz.

well dover terrace ran a very nice race after galloping.May have placed had it not galloped. spirit down under beaten fair and square by the other class horse in the field ,scrunch. Just the spreaders and inexperience of scrunch put me off it a little ,but it ran up to its recent form and was simply too good.Spirit down under just a tad disappointing, although the winner has looked good and shouldn't be underestimated going forward. nasana,got a nice run but dropped away in straight. thought it should have run better. you were right about b oranges drive,ohoka cobra.a good run for 3rd.

i like your thoughts on how to make the series not as much down to luck. Dover terrace. Its a former kaikoura horse,but a massive rise in class from a non win wednesday race, to today run against a horse who ran 3rd last start in a $50,000 listed 3yo race. Thats what i was meaning about the huge difference in recent form.

ill have another go in this race. can only go better than the last one. Spirit down under to win and nasana to run in top 3 multi. paying $10.50. i've never taken a multi before,maybe todays the day to start.

great stuff. double crossed at the start as expected , not looking in a good position,but they go very hard and the gap comes in plenty of time and sneaks up the inside to win. That greg o'connor can pick them. Glad i never had a bet in the race as i would never have backed that one.

blair oranges drive,alderbaran crystal finished a long way back as predicted.Should have been 200/1 instead of the 26/1 it was at.. no need for a streak today. actually the 2 heats so far have pretty much played out as expected. Theres was quite a difference in the level of recent form of the runners and they have finished spread out like browns cows. i don't know,but i looked at those fields and i thought,thats unfair for those drivers who had drawn the lesser chances. Why didn't they start the champs at methven on friday in mid grade pacing races. They would have got full fields with ballots and they would have been far more even in quality than what they've got going to kaikoura.. But hrnz chose to discard methven and instead provide the drivers with the big difference in quality of horses at kaikoura instead. Strange that. G hall is doing everything right and so far the 2 hot favorites have performed as expected for him. B orange,well nothing wrong with his drives,he simply was on a couple that were running against far higher graded horses. he managed to get 5th in the first heat,although well beaten off,he passed a couple of gallopers and a couple almost down to a slow jog at the finish. heat 3 coming up soon. Some pacers and a full field. still a huge difference in the recent form of the runners even in this heat. the race about to start. Ruskinoff the favorite. Get on betfair gamma and back it to lose. I don't see it running in the top 3 but its favorite for some reason and one of the trackside presenters bet of the day....i will watch it and see.

that blaze craze ,you wonder how they come up with those prices sometimes.It seemed strahe to me it was so well backed.It looked as green as in its recent trial and the driver is not in the greatest of form and the stable is a stable that i've mentioned hasn't been the same since the usa thing went down. So its a stable that are always unders in my opinion these days.. you get that though as its a low key meeting and there seems a lot of green horses start there sometimes.

A very good point mikeynz. I'm guessing you've got tabman on the ropes with that point. there could be 3 possible answers i can think of. 1)north island punters prefer what tabman calls "the boring as bat shit south island grass track races" to bet on, over tabmans auckland high class/high quality peoples races... or 2)south island punters find auckland races so unappealing punting wise,they stick to betting on south island harness and hardly bet on the auckland races at all. or 3)what tabman said about the north island punters betting much of the canterbury turnover,isn't as significant as he infers. all 3 possible answers are not what tabman wants us to think. but my guess is all 3 contribute to the low turnovers the auckland meetings continually get. your point is something someone should ask mr steele to answer as well.

hey,thats what we all do. have you not noticed thats what everyone does on social media. So i'm not denying that. Tag team,i i don't mind tag teaming with brodie actually. Being associated with someone who's "always on the money" and.... "just telling it as it is" sounds good to me. i guess your either ernie leonard or steve rickard,giving your commentary of the action through your atc one eyed glasses. It used to be only canterbury people who had those,but now not so much. Anyways,.Sunday afternoons ,On the mat,great tv in the 1970's when i was a kid. Well today is sunday. you seem conflicted . you state "harness racing in nz has been in serious decline for some time"...then explain part of your thought process is the ATC "is still in a good position to reap the benefits of any lift in harness interest in nz,should that ever occur". did you type that last bit with a straight face.. the tag team knows you weren't serious with that last bit. but hey,having said, that last bit is the line hrnz and mr steele are trying to sell. Have you ever thought you should tell him whether you believe thats a good or bad thing for his overall credibilty to be putting that out there.. Just saying. And you've gone to the gammalite comment of "scrub em and cut them loose and sink their ship faster" Come on tabman,you know that is just emotive language and has never been what the tagteam has said.. ....The tag team has always talked about the need to implement a viable,sustainable future for northern harness racing. polar opposites from what you say we say. you got a bit side tracked in parts there tabman. Yes we have said the racing can be boring when you have very small fields,you know why we said that,...becuase we find some of the racing boring. but much of the boring racing comments ,you should know also apply to cambridge,the learner driver comments defintely apply to cambridge and that relates to the lack of judicial oversight,and the nick name thing....tabman you've bumped the controls and switched the channel by mistake,this is the premier tv channel, not the other channel and we don't talk about the A white's favorite nick names on this channel. oh,when you say you find it funny that brodie said people only go to auckland for a feed,i'm not sure where he said that,but funny thing is the last time i went to alexandra park,which was 20 years ago,i wandered the whole complex ,watching half the races from all the different stands ....and do you know what,the 2 most significant conclusions i came to were.... by far the greatest % of people on course were their to eat a meal and showed no interest at all when the races were run.. and the other conclusion was just how smart the people were that had set up the ATC to be run in a way that generated so much income for themselves. ...but that was 5 years befiore the fatal apartments decision. the tag team has never said anything negative about the quality of the facilities and the overall quality of the horses and horse people. We agree with you there.Its really,really sad that the ATC has made past decisions that will eventually take away what you have just pointed out. really sad. as to closing the tab,what are you on about there. Are you saying auckland can pick and choose which parts of their complex to sell ,e.g. the latest being the businesses under the apartments...but when it comes to the tab,that is excluded from their choices. .....i sense you may slipping into the, exaggerating a tad ,there tabman. as to racing on south island grass tracks being boring as bat shit. Thats a bit sad if you think that tabman,to say that when you know it is the most heavily supported part of the sport in canterbury ,both from particpant numbers and punter participation numbers at normal meetings. I say,come on down tabman to methven,geraldine,oamakau,gore..get amongst the crowds,you may just change your mind. Another thing i agree with you on tabman. The weather in the south is a major issue. i personally think they should close southern racing down for at least 10 weeks over winter as southland don't have the numbers or the climate to justify all year racing... kaikoura and addington on nz cup day are so reliant on good weather. Not having indoor facilities to cater for the crowd size on a wet day is just playing russian roulette with profit margins ,but those clubs have no choice . but one day they will pay a big price if the weather does what it can do. Just a few days ago it was snowing where i live for over an hour. thats why i advocate for a grass track in the northern region as part of any new auckland complex. Marketed properly over summer and it would be a real plus for northern harness racing. And i'm not talking using some galloping clubs grass track either.i've seen how dual purpose tracks work and a club is best to control its own destiny. i like your idea about brodie and i taking over the ATc 2 top positions. I think it would have to be a co president,ceo thing. Auckland really would get back on track. Now your talking tabman. We would bring you into the fold as well. I can tell,you are realistic under all the pro auckland comments and we would need a man with local knowldege and contacts. Maybe we could take 4 month turns in the top job.... i'm sure you would like to be part of the "always on the money "team.it would grow on you. enjoy your league game and the ellerslie races. As to you saying overall attendance at ellerslie and the growing population,i hate to burst your bubble,but attendances have been in steady decline at ellerslie for years as well. you would know that, while the auckland population has grown.. Sure they still have their big days,but don't you remember the christmas ellerslie crowds or thwe northern jumps crowds.And you would know the strength of the sport in canterbury was once all the trainers that dotted the canterbury landscape,unlike the galloping trainers. So you would know the codes requirements are diffrent. And how about next time you fly over christchurch,get a window seat and look out the window and you will notice just how many of those training tracks have disappeared due to population growth. Now,i will bounce back off the ropes and happily tag my team mate brodie for the next installment ,i'm sure he "will always be on the money" again.

i actually started this topc a year ago,same month,october.Then just added a post last night to point out how my original post is still relevant. So i think tab's post would have applied at the time.

lepers.Abandonment and neglect.. i think you may have exaggerated things just a tad . The rest of your post made some good points.

the other puzzling thing,is we continue to hear the emotive claims from one side,that people want northern harness racing to shut down.I suppose its not that puzzling given people who claim that are not going to base their argument on the financial realities. People need to take that emotive aspect out of their argument. The argument is about what is the most prosperous path forward. It should not be interpreted as meaning closing northern harness racing.

Its not over complicated is it. you have a business,the atc ,which can't survive on their own due to past poor financial decisions,now requiring being propped up with significant financial support from hrnz. Hrnz does that by redistrubuting money they have received from the entain deal ,cash reserves held,and from money from clubs whose meetings consistently generate profits. the money from entain was a one off, so once spent,is gone,the cash resevrves which hrnz are currently merrily spending, will be placed under even greater demand and therefore the revenue generating meetings will be required more and more to carry the loss making parts of the industry. so its inevitable there will come a time when the industry can no longer carry the ATC and the ATC will be required to sell all their assets,including alexandra park and will have to make future plans based around a different venue.That seems to be a given. So everyone is asking why don't they do that now when it seems such a sensible thing to do? Why would the atc, hrnz and their supporters ,still insist the best strategy is to put money into a failing business model ,knowing by doing that,they will continue to eat into their asset and income base,meaning when the inevitable move has to take place,it will place them in a very weakened state to move forward. the whole thing is bewildering.Hrnz,the atc and their supporters are in reality sabotaging the quality of their own northern particpants future,seemingly because they want to look after their own short term self interests. and the short term self interests of some of the major players. its all rather baffling really. HRNz and mr steele seem to justify their decisions based on population,even though anyone with any thinking abilty can see the popualtion size hasn't helped auckland.

that race just run at auckland.Race 7. a 6 horse field.So a poor betting race because of field size. That was reflected in the win,place,quinella and trifecta pools. All pools were lower than you got on any of the previous 6 races run. but what did race 7 have. It had a jackpotting first 4. race 6 had a carry forward jackpot of $3688.That first 4 was not struck which resulted in a pool 4x the norm for the night in race 6,eventually being $18,292. Well that first 4 was not struck and the $18,292 was carried forward into race 7. So what did the first 4 on race 7 end up as $80,155. Thats on a race with only 6 runners. The first 4 pool for that 1 race was about the same as the other 15 harness first 4's on races run in nz combined today. imagine if race 7 at auckland had 8 to 10 runners. How much would it have got to then? winton today had a $2600 first 4 jackpot carry forward turn into over $18,000. both the jackpot races i refer to had timeslots in what i call the ideal timeslot window to capture australian punter participation.Its that australian market that is your target audience to maximise what is invested on jackpotting first 4's(and jackpotting trifectas). Its over a year since i posted my original topic. if harness racing worked with entain to implement changes to enable them to do as i suggested, i calculate its reasonable to expect they could easily generate an extra 5-10 million in turnover in first 4's alone annually. That would mean they could recieve from the takeouts,an extra 1.2-2 million in revenue. as i have said ,they could also do the same with a targeted trfecta jackpot race in the right timeslot each week. Then if they did what i said as far as directing the starters to make sure they eek an extra 30-seconds to 1 minute after they have been given the all clear,before they turn them in,(i have suggested how they should do that previously to ensure they don't lose any trackside coverage -in effect getting more). so if they did that as well,they could increase all their normal pools easily by between 5-10% on every race. i'm not talking rocket science,its so simple to, just do as i suggest. Then you would get several million more in revenue for the industry from turnover.

You say,"HRNZ obviously wants the ATC to become strong again". Thats fair enough. We all want the ATC to become strong again. but wanting the ATC based at alexandra park and wanting the club to become strong again,seems like a contradiction in how to achieve that,to most except hrnz and the ATC. Its as simple as that. So,who really is it,that has the future best interests of northern harness racing at heart. also the argument that northern harness would not retain industries stakeholders if the atc moved from alexandra park. Where can you point to the evidence of that.I guess there would be a marginal impact but the level seems to be overstated. Then you have to factor in the overall impact of heavily subsidizing racing at aleaxandra park,has on the future rest of nz 's participation levels. i've wondered myself why they don't sell both cambridge and alexandra park and come up with a new complex somewhere not far from either.But i don't know the landscape up there ,but you would think maintaining 1 complex would be better than 2 and pooling the resources of 2 clubs would make both stronger. . personally i think cambridge racing lacks any variety and the over saturation of racing there leads to a boring presentation of the harness racing product. Its not the horses or the participants that are boring at cambridge,but the racing is. I personally don't believe the atc and cambridge combining to race at cambridge makes any sense either.They need a new complex with a grass track for summer racing as well as an all weather track. The stables and grandstand need to have one track on one side and the other track on the other side of it,in other words in the middle.

alderbaran crystal,if it wins i will do a streak down the main street at luchtime . But that won't be happening as its no chance of winning. its been going ok lately,but is simply racing out of its grade. ohoka cobra,well maybe it can run 4th at best with a top drive . I know your a positive thinker gammalite ,so i hope they do go much better than i rate their chances. interesting observation about the trotters for g hall,maybe it is a factor,but they are both horses that normally are pretty safe to trot all the way.both very hot favorites. Semba at $1.80 does seem a bit short and as you say,its draw is not ideal as it may get stuck on inside,but he should look to get it off the inside early you would think as if it runs up to its best form it can still go close after doing a little work. munroes mate halls other horse,yes it looka a roughie and can be moody,depending on who drives him. Hes capable of running top 4 or 5 ,but hes has a couple of hard runs fresh so you would be hopeful rather than expectant,of him running much good.your point about the g hall not having driven as many trotters,i suppose applies to several of the other drivers having driven pacers. it will be interesting to see how they all go. good luck to the aussie.

They've boxed themselves into a corner by the sounds of it. had they had a plan b like having the process of changing the land use well underway then they would have had better options.,but they haven't by the sound of it. the strange thing about that is,why haven't the atc,hrnz or the media reported the need for a change of land use before? has anyone read that before? the answer i guess is it didn't suit the purposes of any of those mentioned to inform people. to do that you would think it would have cost a lot of money but when you read they are paying $450,000 a month in interest then that puts some perspective on that cost. also,without that in the pipeline prospective buyers of the land at franklin would be aware of how desperate and out of other options the atc is to sell,so you would think that would be reflected in the level of any future offers.they would have had greater bargaining power had they had the other options. the most disappointing thing about the auckland club is not what the auckland club is doing. Even though the current lot seem to be only interested in themselves,you can't blame them for that or trying to hang in there and hope HRNZ will bail them out. Its the people at hrnz who are enabling the auckland club to do what they are doing that is most surprising. Surprising being a kind word.. and after all this time since the debacle has played out,still no one has the ability to put forward a vision that people can see will work. Theres a real lack of leadership all round in my opinion. And i would also say,the other harness clubs and racing participants,sort of deserve the future that they seem very likely to live in.. Sure ,there are many pointing out the lack of common sense thinking,but there efforts have seen no change in the heirachys thinking,which indicates the level of apathy and disengagement fro the majority of clubs and harness particiapnts. So in a way,the harness racing throughout nz will reap what they sow,sp to speak.

i was just reading the latest article by m guerin g on the ATC. now ,i read the article and several questions came to mind,which you would have thought should have been answered in the article. for a start,who really will end up paying for the interest that is accumulating at apparently $450,000 per month. Its the ATC debt,but it seems it will be HRNZ(in reality all nz harness racing), that actually will end up paying the $450,000 per month. why,well mr steele from HRNZ has said hrnz are committed to contributing and helping source the extra money needed for a new training centre,by redirecting funds that HRNZ could have used for other purposes. So if the ATC only had x amount to contribute and nothing has changed for them,then the shortfall due to the increasing interest debt,for funding the new training establishment,won't be coming from the ATC,because they have no more, it can only come from hrnz(mr steele) so its ATC only in name, In reality its hrnz who have to come up with each extra months $450,000 interest debt,not the ATC . m guerin seems to go along with the ATC's ,almost propoganda,that now the latest $70m franklin park sale has fallen through,they will go to the strategy of selling commercial property under the apartments they own. But hang on there fellas,whats new about that as when you wrote your article 3 months ago you said the atc was intending to do that anyway and that the funds from that had already beeen factored in at that point. so ,why mr guerin and the atc and HRNZ are you trying to infer that the commerciial building sales is something that is a new positive. these people that write these articles and run the ATC and run HRNZ really do think everyone is stupid. And another question. If the ATC has to go through a long process to have the land use of alexandra park redefined before it can be sold,well,duh,why haven't they already started the process. I mean,on the face of it,it seems these people have totally relied on the sale of a property that has never eventuated ,and not even started the process of giving them a possible plan b. Like wouldn't that have been the obvious thing to do as ,like it could save them millions and millions down the track by keeping the option of selling alexandra park.How did hrnz not understand that either. I mean,these are the people in charge. Then theres other questions. if the ATC sells its revenue generating assets like the commercial buildings,then why do they not explain ,where are they going to make up the shortfall in income in the future. So,my take on the m guein article and the box seat segment on the ATC,is why don't they have the brains to ask the obvious questions.Well i think they do have the brains,but just think they think their viewers don't. personally i think m guerin deserves little credilbity at all when talking about the atc. I remember him,year after year,often around the yearling sales time,waffling on about how there was never a better time to get involved because the atc was doing so well,even at times when it was obvious they were in big trouble. I remember starting topics on this forum pointing out ,does anyone believe what m guerin says about the ATC.You know some people have what they call memories. i saw m guerin,a few months back expressed his supposed anger over what had happened with the atc. I mean,there he was saying the complete opposite of what he had been saying publically for years.We can only judge him on what he says,and thats why i say,why should he be shown much credibilty when he talks about the atc. anyways,the atc is stuffed,we all know that,hrnz is doing their best to hitch their boat to the sinking ship,we all can see that.The reporting and the comments from those at the ATC are fudging the true story,everyone can see through it. Whats new. Nothing actually.Other than another chapter where people on social media get to point out the holes in the latest atc story.

looking at the horses orange has drawn,it would be a surprise to see any of the 5 horses he's drawn at kaikoura run in the top 3. so you would think his chances have already taken a real dive. I guess all he can hope is he draws some of the better chances thereafter. G hall jnr has drawn what you would expect to be the 3 hot favorites in all 3 heats on the sunday and another likely favorite in one of the 2 heats on the monday. he clearly has been the luckiest from the draw of horses,by a long way. thats why the tab now have him a clear favorite.They have him at $2.50 ,which actually seems rather good given he should end up a clear leader after the kaikoura meetings,it just a matter of how far he is in front if his horses run up to their recent form.

It just highlights the conflicted thinking of HRNZ. Last year they had just as many horses start at the one methven meeting on the friday, as they did on the 2 days of kaikoura meetings. So the clever people at hrnz said,we need more at kaikoura,so lets do away with methven ,that way we will get more numbers at kaikoura. Yet when it comes to the north island,the same clever people think doing the opposite,i.e. running more meetings is the answer. Its just another in a long line of examples of thinking that is all over the place from hrnz.

maybe its because they have reduced the odds as a result of the big bet. Just a time lapse thing at a guess.