curious
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Everything posted by curious
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Ouch. Glad I didn't go again today. Had to work to replenish the bank. Guess we have some more refinement to do to get this sorted. Might be because we didn't have a heavy track today and couldn't use the 3kg claim factor? The -23/24% ROI is seeming consistent though. I hope it wasn't too windy up there in Northland Wally. The Armourguard van could have blown off the road with so little weight on. At least you would have been able to second a toddler to push the barrow from the back of the tote.
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I'd say get on when the blinkers go on and if it has a claim as well add another 20%.
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First race at Del Mar less than an hour away. NZTAB showing no odds. Are the bookies having a Sunday sleep in or have they all gone out for brekkie? What gives?
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I assume that's because it's down in class from being beaten only 3.5 lengths in a Class1 Listed race 2 starts back, to a Class 2 race? Veered out and covered extra ground last time but Pi wouldn't have helped you allow for that. Might benefit from blinkers?
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Yeahhh will still be value on Monday.
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Oh and I forgot to mention the 3kg claim ... gold!
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I think once we get the Pi factor worked into it, we should be right. By Monday, at least one of those winners, I'm picking Amun Ra, a blind man would have seen. I mean down from finishing less than 4l from the winner in a Group 2 less than 4 years ago, to an R72, plus racing with blinkers on, you could hardly go wrong. I probably should have quit after that one but I was getting excited.
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Not a disaster. $1310 back from my $1720 investment. An ROI of -23.8%. Might have just been a bad week.
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Delmar R4 #11 Rockantharos Delmar R5 #2 Noble Contessa
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I'm thinking if we can get this system a bit more fine tuned we should be able to sell it. Your post gave me an idea barryb. We could call it the TBG system (Thommo's Bloody Guess). He obviously works on weekends to fund his betting account, so he won't know we've stolen it. Of course, we'll need to establish some track record data for marketing purposes but if we place all bets the day after the races, then I think we can come up with something quite impressive for that.
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OK. I'll just added 20% to the ones with blinkers on then.
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That's not a bad idea barryb. I could get a better estimate of value then too.
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Still trying to work this out FTF. Are we supposed to measure the distance travelled by the inside of the horse, the centre or the outside? Because by my calculations the outside will have travelled several meters further than the inside in most cases unless it's a figure 8 course and they do one complete circuit.
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OK. The only real way to test this is with real money so I might have a lazy $50 to win on them all and see how we go. I assume I just ignore price?
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Did you do all those selections without using Pi?
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Don't know what the n is here but looks like my bank would at least last considerably longer if I backed all Hayes runners EXCEPT those with blinkers on first time?
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Crap, this is getting complicated. We should have a serious advantage if we can work it out though. I guess you'd have to add in whether or not the jockeys were wearing speed silks or not as well in calculating the wind resistance factor. Is that reported anywhere?
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I'd just go with C = 2 x π x √((a2 + b2) ÷ 2) + (1 x barrier draw) for now.
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I suppose that would depend on whether the start is on a bend or in a straight and if the latter, how close to the first turn and if the former, how close to the next straight? I think you'll need quite a few more variables in there to get a good approximation. Thommo will probably be able to help though.
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Great news that someone in the family passed primary school maths. Why don't you ask her to explain the ecological fallacy to you. I've given up.
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And also preferably one that raced 3 wide without cover in its last start, so we can apply the PI formula.
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FTF, I'm wondering if we could get him to divide 22 by 7 and keep going till he reaches a rational number. The odds of success would be similar to the chance of him producing any rational ideas but it might keep him occupied for a few days.
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No it's not. Pi is a constant.
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How are you going with that remedial primary school maths Thommo?
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Well done Weasel. Claim on heavy 11 obviously got it in the money.
