curious

It could be. You still have to have some criteria for pricing the race so that you can know whether the available odds exceed the horse's chance. Not that I would use those above, nor can see how to adjust my pricing based on them and Tommo has been reluctant to share how to do that.

Well, I get speed maps, but don't really know how to use them in pricing a race, so don't. I don't use weight in my ratings so can't help with weight ratings. You could calculate kinetic energy ratings easily enough provided you knew the weight of the horse, which you don't in Australia/NZ. He didn't really have much chance to explain any of these things. It seemed he was really just being rushed through the list of 11 without expanding on any detail.

It seems a bit odd if that is the case. The square patch was already well browned off when the news was announced and it appears the damaged area extends beyond that in places.

Sorry TC. Can't help. I got lost at #1.

And after Trauma won. "Did they rate it's chances after the nice trial?" "I don't know". Has she been getting lessons from Dummy on handling the inane media questions?

A nice run with a spray boom and round up or similar instead of weedkiller or fertiliser?

Do you think it's actually any easier to win a mdn or rating band race in the SI or is that a myth?

What?

Gold Coast Magic Millions hinges on 'drop-in pitch' about an hour ago by Trenton Akers The Gold Coast track has deteriorated further Image: Supplied The fate of the 2025 Gold Coast Magic Millions hinges on a radical drop in pitch to replace a section of damaged grass on the new track, as officials face a race against time to get it right for next Saturday. Punters can reveal heavy machinery is being floated in from interstate to dig up the section of turf at the 500m mark that has been severely damaged by chemicals and will be replaced by existing unaffected grass that is already on the Gold Coast track. READ: Sunshine Coast Preview & Tips - Magic Millions Sunlight night The procedure will be similar to how many venues now use drop-in pitches for cricket matches. The 25m x 10m section of grass first started showing signs of deterioration on Wednesday, with the issue coming to a dramatic head on Friday afternoon when stewards stepped in after two horses galloped over the affected turf. Pictures obtained by Punters reveal the track had further deteriorated by Saturday morning after the decision was made to shift Saturday's meeting to the Sunshine Coast. READ: Millions shock: Gold Coast meeting moved to Sunshine Coast after track poisoning The rich meeting, which acts as the kick-off point to the Magic Millions carnival, has the $3m Sunlight slot race and the $500,000 Wave. The Gold Coast Turf Club and Racing Queensland have taken samples of the affected turf to send off to specialists to determine what has caused the area to become so badly damaged in a short period of time. The turf club notified police at 7pm on Friday night of the possibility the track was vandalised. Investigations are ongoing, with Gold Coast police urging witnesses or anyone with relevant information to come forward. Officials began work to take out the huge damaged section of turf on Saturday, with hopes to have the new grass in place as soon as Monday. Any work will be dependent on when the huge equipment is able to be trucked into Queensland. Pictures on Saturday morning reveal the Gold Coast track has further deteriorated. Picture: Supplied Punters understands Gold Coast and Magic Millions officials are confident of racing next Saturday's Magic Millions meeting at the track, however the new section of grass will need to be given the tick of approval by jockeys prior to the meeting. More than $14m in prizemoney will go on the line next Saturday, with the $3m Magic Millions 2YO Classic and $3m Magic Millions 3YO Guineas the highlight races. The club and Magic Millions will work on contingency plans over the weekend and into early next week in the event the Gold Coast track is not able to be brought up to speed. MORE: Gold Coast Magic Millions Carnival - Full Guide With Eagle Farm already racing next Saturday with a secondary meeting, the track is available to host the Magic Millions should it be required. It is the latest in a list of track dramas which has haunted the Gold Coast, after it was put offline for almost nine months after a diabolic meeting in March. The 2023 Magic Millions was also washed out after just two races with 14mm of rain after a rogue sprinkler waterlogged a section of the track. The state government recently spent $63m on redeveloping the track at the Gold Coast and installing lights.

Move to Gore then. That might help your chances. 1965.

Confirms what above?

There is reasonable evidence that even horses that go through yearling sales have lower injury rates and more career longevity. That is presumed to be due to the managed exercise involved. Horses that go through more than one sale, even better. Generally, the socialisation would likely have occured during the weanling period, before colts need to be separated from fillies etc. A large number of very good horses have gone through yearling sales. Bramlage said recently, members of the Jockey Club’s Thoroughbred Safety Committee have analyzed data on starts and auction appearances and found that each trip through a sale ring – yearlings and 2-year-old sales – increases a horse’s probability of ultimately making a start.

Not sure it helps much in the context of the above. That requires managed speed work. Larry Bramlage cited in the article above concludes that turnout conditions horses to turnout, not to speed work. Bramlage said it means that turning a horse out until its third birthday and then beginning race training will adapt the skeleton to turnout for a year, but not to training or racing. The bone modeling system will largely atrophy. The horse is then introduced to training and will have to recreate the vascular supply and cell population devoted to remodeling. By contrast, the horse who trained at two only had to repurpose the vasculature and cells already present for growth.

It's up the same day for Oz racing.

Yes. In this day and age, it's hard to understand. With the supposed focus on providing better punter information, you'd think these would be up the next day, if not the same day and in much better quality. At the moment, with the south island circuit the way it is at this time of year, many of these horses start again before the stewards' vision of their previous run is available. It's very poor.

Millions shock: Gold Coast meeting moved to Sunshine Coast after track poisoning The Gold Coast track has suffered a major setback at the 500m mark prior to the Magic Millions. Picture: Supplied By Trenton Akers 06:28pm • 03 January 2025 The start of the Magic Millions carnival has been turned on its head, with Saturday's Gold Coast meeting sensationally moved to the Sunshine Coast after their new track was poisoned. In unprecedented scenes, Queensland racing officials have been forced to move the rich twilight meeting, which includes the $3m Sunlight slot race and $500,000 The Wave after jockeys raised concerns about the state of the track at the 500m point. Officials were left stunned on Friday afternoon when they discovered part of the new track had suffered significant chemical damage. Two senior jockeys galloped on the Gold Coast course proper on Friday afternoon, with the Queensland Jockeys Association saying they "weren't 100 percent happy" with the damaged section. The affected area is about 25m x 10m in size and on the point of the home turn. It's understood representatives from a leading turf farm in New South Wales have been engaged to oversee urgent works next week to ensure next Saturday's bumper Magic Millions meeting can proceed as planned. The Gold Coast track on Friday Picture: Supplied "The advice from turf experts was that next Saturday's Magic Millions meeting will be fine to proceed," Racing Queensland chief executive Jason Scott said. "They believe the track will be able to be fixed up." It was determined it was vital to run the meeting on Saturday sticking to the planned twilight schedule, with the card having significant Magic Millions ramifications, through a pair of two-year-old races that shape as last chance saloon opportunities to get into the Magic Millions 2YO Classic next week. It means participants and horses will need to make the two-hour trip from the Gold Coast to the Sunshine Coast to race on Saturday. Betting on the meeting was left in limbo, with different bookmakers having different rules regarding bets already placed. It also throws Channel 7's coverage of the much spruiked twilight meeting into disarray, with the network going to great lengths to broadcast it on free to air TV. It's understood the Brisbane Racing Club offered their services to host the meeting on Saturday at Eagle Farm, however the decision was ultimately made to move it to the Sunshine Coast instead, with the club already hosting a meeting on Sunday. It is the latest drama for the track, which was put out of action after a diabolical meeting in March saw it sidelined until late last year. In 2023, the Magic Millions was washed out after just 14mm of rainfall on race morning, when a rogue sprinkler was to blame for a wet patch on the track.

Yes. That article and the underlying study are nearly 5 years old. The NZVA policy published 2018 reflected the same knowledge. Policy Type: Policy Status: Current Manual Reference: 10b Date ratified: November 2018 Position Statement The NZVA considers that the racing of two year old horses is acceptable provided the horses are adequately developed and are free of significant conformational faults. Explanation There is good evidence that exercise at a young age advances tissue maturity. Adult levels of tissue maturity have been shown to have been attained in horses before two year old racing usually commences. There is good evidence that racing as a two year old does not reduce the length of a horse's racing career. There is evidence that horses trained or raced as two year olds may have a longer racing career and a greater number of starts. The NZVA recognises that training and racing of horses is inevitably associated with some risk of injury. The NZVA recommends that the minimisation of these risks should be the responsibility of the racing industry as a whole. There should be close attention paid to the diet, training and racing schedules of young horses to minimise the incidence of exercise-induced injuries. Measures to decrease injuries to all racing horses should include improvements in track design and educational programs for industry personnel. References Patterson-Kane JC, Parry DAD, Birch HL, Goodship AE, Firth EC. An Age-Related Study of Morphology and Cross-Link Composition of Collagen Fibrils in the Digital Flexor Tendons of Young Thoroughbred Horses. Connective Tissue Research 36: 253-260, 1997. Perkins NR, Reid SWJ, Morris RS. Effect of training location and time period on racehorse performance in New Zealand I: Descriptive analysis. New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 52:236-242, 2004a. Perkins NR, Reid SWJ, Morris RS. Effect of training location and time period on racehorse performance in New Zealand II: Multivariable analysis. New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 52:243-249, 2004b. Perkins NR, Reid SWJ, Morris RS. Profiling the New Zealand Thoroughbred racing industry. 1. Training, racing and general health patterns. New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 53(1): 59-68, 2005a. Perkins NR, Reid SWJ, Morris RS. Profiling the New Zealand Thoroughbred racing industry. 2. Conditions interfering with training and racing. New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 53(1): 69-76, 2005b. Perkins NR, Reid SWJ, Morris RS. Risk factors for musculoskeletal injuries of the lower limbs in Thoroughbred racehorses. New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 53(3):171-183, 2005c. Perkins NR, Reid SWJ, Morris RS. Risk factors for injury to the superficial digital flexor tendon and suspensory apparatus in Thoroughbred racehorses in New Zealand. New Zealand Veterinary Journal, 53(3):184-192, 2005d. van Weeren PR, Firth EC, Brommer H, et al. Early exercise advances the maturation of glycosaminoglycans and collagen in the extracellular matrix in the horse. Equine Vet. J. 40: 128-135, 2008. Rogers C, Bolwell C, Gee E. The racing of two-year-old racehorses – the facts in relation to welfare. Proceedings NZEVA Equine Conference, 2015.

Posting this has been a lot better but how do they get it up for Wanganui and Kurow but not Rotorua and Timaru run 2 days earlier?

Yes thanks. I saw it earlier after Thomass posted that same info.

It would have the margin from third for both horses though so no zero margin required. It would only be a problem in a DH for first wouldn't it?

I did see that figure somewhere. From memory it's somewhere like 70% though I stand to be corrected. Important for clubs to encourage and facilitate though, as you suggest, since it gains them an extra 2.5% on turnover.

Agree. Though she nearly let up a couple of strides too soon.

I suppose you could look back at previous DHs and see if it's the same. Pretty delinquent if that is the case.