Chief Stipe Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 MEETING NEWS Racing Rotorua Sunday 24 September - Cancelled NZTR and Racing Rotorua have decided to cancel the meeting scheduled for this Sunday. The early decision has been made after reviewing the weather forecast which is for severe rainfall in the region over the next few days. NZTR will look at options to add races to other meetings to provide opportunities for those that have missed a run at Rotorua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 The weather forecast for Rotorua doesn't look cataclysmic. Why cancel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: The weather forecast for Rotorua doesn't look cataclysmic. Why cancel? More than 200mm over the weekend and Monday its probably a fair call to make. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Don't be surprised if Gore gets canned as well, rains gone but aftermath lingers on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Huey said: More than 200mm over the weekend and Monday its probably a fair call to make. Which weather forecast says 200mm? The Met Office is predicting 50mm mostly on Saturday. No heavy rain warning for Rotorua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 I see they have added races to the Cambridge Synthetic for Wednesday. 🤔 Will be interested to see what the nominations are. MEETING NEWS Mdn F&M 1300m and Mdn 2000m Races Added to Cambridge Two races, a Mdn F&M 1300m (Pearl race) and a Mdn 2000m have been added to the Cambridge meeting on Wednesday 27th September. Both these races will be run for $18,500. Nominations for the Cambridge meeting close at Midday today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Where are people getting the 200mm forecast from? If there was a forecast like that then the Metservice would have issued a heavy rain warning. The rain is coming from the west and will fall well before the front gets to Rotorua. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 36 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Where are people getting the 200mm forecast from? If there was a forecast like that then the Metservice would have issued a heavy rain warning. The rain is coming from the west and will fall well before the front gets to Rotorua. Check Yr.no weather forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Huey said: Check Yr.no weather forecast. I find it very good too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Huey said: Check Yr.no weather forecast. I never use that - basically it is entirely computer generated based on historical data and European based computer models. The NZ Metservice and the VUW Weather model are the best sources. They are more nuanced and aligned to local conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Freda said: I find it very good too. Probably for Canterbury which is quite predictable but I question its value for areas or regions that have more geographical complexity. I certainly hope that NZTR are not relying on yr.no which is based in Norway to make local decisions on the weather. However the Metservice has updated its forecast and heavy rain is forecast for Sunday for a two hour period 1100 to 1300. But still nowhere near 200mm. Perhaps 75mm from late Friday to late Sunday. I guess with this precedent there will never be any heavy track racing again. Meanwhile Riccarton will continue to throw up hard and fast especially this year with El Nino in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chimbu Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The latest from Stuff Heavy rain could cause 'significant and widespread impacts' in the North Island this weekend Rachel Moore15:31, Sep 22 2023 Videos from flooding in South Island Play Unmute Current Time 0:04 / Duration 1:24 Loaded: 47.34% Fullscreen STUFF AND SUPPLIED The South Island, particularly Southland and Queenstown, have been hammered by heavy rain. People in the North Island are about to get slammed by the rain band that’s causing havoc in the south. The active front is travelling up the South Island, with flooding causing State of Emergency declarations in Queenstown, Southland and Gore. As those conditions settle, the impacts will begin to be felt in the North Island, MetService meteorologist Clare O’Connor said. The heaviest rain was expected in the second half of Saturday and Sunday morning, with the potential for “significant and widespread impacts”. Heavy rain watches had been issued for Northland, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taihape, Whanganui, and Taupō west and south of the lake, Taranaki and the Tararua Range, beginning on Saturday. However, MetService has warned additional watches and warnings could still come. O’Connor said MetService was concerned about the risk of the rain band slowing down and stopping over the north-east of the North Island. While that location hadn’t been confirmed, it would mean “rain, rain and rain over that area”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 42 minutes ago, Chimbu said: Heavy rain watches had been issued for Northland, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taihape, Whanganui, and Taupō west and south of the lake, Taranaki and the Tararua Range, beginning on Saturday. However, MetService has warned additional watches and warnings could still come. Rotorua isn't mentioned. Just not sure cancelling a meeting 2 and a half days out is a good precedent considering NZ’S maritime climate. I believe the rush to make the decision was predicated on the fact that nominations closed for Cambridge at midday today for next Wednesday but they've now kept them open till 9am tomorrow. Now that's interesting in itself - why so far out? They don't have people working weekends? Will Rotorua be compensated for the cancellation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Metservice rain Forecast for Rotorua adjusted downwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Ok I'll call it. The decision to cancel Rotorua was bullshit. Forecast is now rain tonight and none after 8am tomorrow for the day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Ok I'll call it. The decision to cancel Rotorua was bullshit. Forecast is now rain tonight and none after 8am tomorrow for the day! I'm guessing it has a lot to do with their KPIs which might include meeting abandonments? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Well at least Gore will get their day in the sun which is exactly contrary to what they had on Thursday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Less than 25mm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted September 24, 2023 Share Posted September 24, 2023 How much rain in Rotorua today. Anyone know ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 24, 2023 Author Share Posted September 24, 2023 25mm yesterday - most fell before midday. 45mm for the two days prior to midday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 On 22/09/2023 at 1:33 PM, Chief Stipe said: I never use that - basically it is entirely computer generated based on historical data and European based computer models. The NZ Metservice and the VUW Weather model are the best sources. They are more nuanced and aligned to local conditions. NZ Met Service The useless pricks issue heavy rain('Orange' or 'Red') warnings for the Coast every second bloody day. And guess what? - it invariably never arrives(well not heavy for here anyway). They are frigging hopeless. Like most green climate change nutters they know exactly what the weather will be in a hundred years but have no idea what it will be tomorrow. I think my fishermen clients use that Norwegian Service and believe it far superior. When you are out in the Tasman Sea in a tin boat you need accurate info so I would listen to them as to it's reliability before anyone else. However ........ Maybe it was John Oatham doing the head Stipe's job at Rotorua? - he is good at making up 'facts' to justify cancellation decisions 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 20 minutes ago, Reefton said: NZ Met Service The useless pricks issue heavy rain('Orange' or 'Red') warnings for the Coast every second bloody day. And guess what? - it invariably never arrives(well not heavy for here anyway). They are frigging hopeless. Like most green climate change nutters they know exactly what the weather will be in a hundred years but have no idea what it will be tomorrow. I think my fishermen clients use that Norwegian Service and believe it far superior. When you are out in the Tasman Sea in a tin boat you need accurate info so I would listen to them as to it's reliability before anyone else. However ........ Maybe it was John Oatham doing the head Stipe's job at Rotorua? - he is good at making up 'facts' to justify cancellation decisions At no stage were any warnings issued for Rorotua. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 I blame Labour for this weather....happy days...ahead.🙃 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted September 25, 2023 Author Share Posted September 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Reefton said: I think my fishermen clients use that Norwegian Service and believe it far superior. When you are out in the Tasman Sea in a tin boat you need accurate info so I would listen to them as to it's reliability before anyone else. Yr.no use a particular computer model which would be more reliable over a large expanse of water e.g. the Tasman Sea. But as you know weather over NZ's unique geography is harder to predict. Reefton is a classic case where the wider weather pattern gives a general picture but local knowledge refines that further. Rotorua is similar to Reefton in that it is effectively in a basin and the weather is affected by the terrain that surrounds them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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