holy ravioli Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Because we need another Imperatriz thread. NZ TAB...$1.70!!!!...Oh do behave..MV specialist against real talent Everest form in In Secret...@$4.00...pile it like ..brylcreem.😄  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Â Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 8 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Â Â Bit of a meaningless stat...going back 3 years. Um why has Classique Legend got such a high rating...didn't even win a Grp1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Bit of a meaningless stat...going back 3 years. Um why has Classique Legend got such a high rating...didn't even win a Grp1! The rating is based on a number of factors e.g. the competition, time etc. It's just a rating on a race win. I'm surprised you didn't point out the number of The Everest winners on the list. He rates Imperatriz's win at 108 which only 3 horses in the last 3 years have rated higher. Adds weight to the view she is the best WFA sprinter in Australia at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Bit of a meaningless stat...going back 3 years. It's a standard to measure against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 After jumping well, Opie Bosson took the lead on Imperatriz in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, and despite the small field, he still ran along at a respectable early speed... this was no sit-and-sprint race. Imperatriz produced an elite show of sustained speed to win easily, running a 108 rating to match her previous peak. Her three best ratings this preparation of 108, 108 and 106, sit above the 105 that Think About It ran to narrowly win The Everest two weeks ago. Her two 108 ratings rank above I Wish I Win's 107.5 Group 1 TJ Smith win in the Autumn and Giga Kick's peak of 106.7 from the Autumn. By all objective rating measures, Imperatriz deserves to be considered Australia's best Sprinter. In the last three years, only Nature Strip (three times 108.5 to 111.6), Eduardo (110.5), Bivouac (111.2) and Classique Legend (111.7) have rated higher than Imperatriz up to 1200m. Â I Am Me was 3.3 lengths behind Imperatriz, with her 100.4 rating slightly up on the 100 rating she ran to win in Sydney at her last start and a 100.2 win first-up. Uncommon James improved on his 96.5 behind Asfoora at Caulfield to match his 99.7 rating when first-up behind Imperatriz in the Group 1 Moir Stakes over 1000m. He's racing 0.4 to 0.8 lengths off his two peak ratings from last preparation of 101.7 (winning the G1 Oakleigh Plate with 53.5kg) and 100.7 (2nd in the Group 1 Galaxy with 54.5kg.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Dan O'Sullivan rates her Manikato win higher than Think About It's win in The Everest. I guess that puts In Secret's form into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 About WFA Performance Ratings  WFA Performance Ratings (WPRs) are a performance measure for each horse run, normalised to weight-for-age so that they can be directly compared regardless of age, sex, distance or the time of year.  They take into account a range of key indicators such as race times, sectional times, margin spread, previous ratings and weights carried. Subjective factors such as bad luck in running or advantages / disadvantages due to track pattern, pace of the race etc. are not included.  The point scale per length varies slightly with distance, but as a general guide two points is equal to one length. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 45 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Dan O'Sullivan rates her Manikato win higher than Think About It's win in The Everest. I guess that puts In Secret's form into perspective. Dan should change his name to Dud'...preposterous assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 55 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: The rating is based on a number of factors e.g. the competition, time etc. It's just a rating on a race win. I'm surprised you didn't point out the number of The Everest winners on the list. He rates Imperatriz's win at 108 which only 3 horses in the last 3 years have rated higher. Adds weight to the view she is the best WFA sprinter in Australia at the moment. So in your opinion Classique Legend ,who never won a Grp1 ,deserves a higher rating than..Imperatriz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Dan should change his name to Dud'...preposterous assessment. In your opinion why? We all look forward to your erudite analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: So in your opinion Classique Legend ,who never won a Grp1 ,deserves a higher rating than..Imperatriz? You miss the point - as always. The assessment is on the race win - NOT the horses overall rating. The Manikato win rated 108 which wasn't as high as one of Classique Legends wins. Dan O'Sullivan doesn't rate Romantic Warrior's Cox Plate win very high by comparison to previous winners. The Longine rating for that horse (overall) is 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: You miss the point - as always. The assessment is on the race win - NOT the horses overall rating. The Manikato win rated 108 which wasn't as high as one of Classique Legends wins. Dan O'Sullivan doesn't rate Romantic Warrior's Cox Plate win very high by comparison to previous winners. The Longine rating for that horse (overall) is 123. You know very well that Classique Legend won the Everest against an elite field of sprinters,and that is what it is rated on. You want it both ways....on one hand you insist Grp1's are the measure on the other ..these ratings are!! The reality is Imperartriz has been devastating at Moonee Valley against small fields.I Am Me didn't run a drum in the Everest. Good to see Opie didn't 'go too early' in the Manikato!😄  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, holy ravioli said: Bit of a meaningless stat...going back 3 years. Um why has Classique Legend got such a high rating...didn't even win a Grp1! What does the pattern status of the race have to do with any performance assessment? You've lost me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) 46 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Dan should change his name to Dud'...preposterous assessment. I don't always, but in this case I agree with Dan that Imeratriz's Manikato performance was 2-3 lengths better than that of the Everest winner. If you don't agree as it seems, what is your assessment of the two relative performances? Imperatriz may or not be the best sprinter in Australia. Not in Black Caviar league, but still very good and for the most part achieved largely untested. Edited October 30, 2023 by curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 20 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Good to see Opie didn't 'go too early' in the Manikato!😄 He hardly moved on her. If you are making a smart arse reference to my opinion of JMac's ride at Randwick where she got nutted into second then I'd point out to you the situation was different. She was coming back to 1300m on a Soft 5 shitty Randwick track. In my opinion, which hasn't changed is that JMac went too soon on her.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Well they can Rate whatever they like . who cares. It's WINS on the board that count !! Black Caviar won a string of races . that's the inportant thing . who knows who she beat or what she rated. it doesn't really matter. she got the wins and the money. Imperatriz has won a string of races. that's the Important thing . the rating or other runners are just 'also rans' . wins and money 💰 Nature Strip has won a string of races . His rating ? never knew It . he didn't care...lol  😆 Any chance Imperatriz can get the Crown of Crowns in front of the King at Royal Ascot next year ? (Like Black Caviar and Nature Strip did) >>>> to become the Best on the Planet for a moment in time !!!! wouldn't that be something Special ?.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 41 minutes ago, curious said: What does the pattern status of the race have to do with any performance assessment? You've lost me. It's a reference to the Chief's noted, disdain for the Everest. Performance assessments are subjective,regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, curious said: I don't always, but in this case I agree with Dan that Imeratriz's Manikato performance was 2-3 lengths better than that of the Everest winner. If you don't agree as it seems, what is your assessment of the two relative performances? Imperatriz may or not be the best sprinter in Australia. Not in Black Caviar league, but still very good and for the most part achieved largely untested. Well imo....Imperatriz beat a horse who didn't figure in the Everest finish. She smashed a small field...no track record this time like her prior 1000m triumphs at M.V. Think About it beat IWIW , Private Eye,In Secret i.e far superior opposition. If Imperatriz wins at Flemington,I would rerate her.The Classique Legend rating suggests the Everest is an excellent...measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: The Classique Legend rating suggests the Everest is an excellent...measure. I'm starting to think you are really quite thick. The ratings Classique Legend was given for that specific race on that specific day i.e. that specific performance. It enables a comparison of races. You seem to pick and choose what race suits your argument or bias. On the one hand you say The Everest is an excellent measure but apparently not this year when Imperatriz's performance is rated higher. You've picked a horse or something else to beat Imperatriz everytime she has been to the races. You might get it right one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Performance assessments are subjective,regardless. Well as a punter and owner, I have to try to quantify them as best I can. So, I don't agree. I am asking you to quantify your assessment. You have said you have done that by claiming that Imperatriz is poor value at $1.70 for the Champion. I make her $1.60 chance. Then you say that In Secret is great value at $4.00. I have it at $6.00. I am asking you to quantify your claim with your pricing for the race and your assessment of each of their last 2 runs. with your pricing for the race, at least for those two runners. Edited October 30, 2023 by curious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 16 minutes ago, curious said: Well as a punter and owner, I have to try to quantify them as best I can. So, I don't agree. I am asking you to quantify your assessment. You have said you have done that by claiming that Imperatriz is poor value at $1.70 for the Champion. I make her $1.60 chance. Then you say that In Secret is great value at $4.00. I have it at $6.00. I am asking you to quantify your claim with your pricing for the race and your assessment of each of their last 2 runs. with your pricing for the race, at least for those two runners. Really...so the race is nearly 2 weeks away and you rate her $1.60...! As mentioned I rate the Everest form over 1200m as better than the Manikato form over 1200m. In Secrets run in the Everest was a monster...flying out wider for 4th.She has also won at Flemington.You make her a $6...chance...love to have some of that. Some people may decide the Manikato was a stronger form race...I am definitely not one of them. Now you quantify your assessments and pricing given the pertinent factors available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Really...so the race is nearly 2 weeks away and you rate her $1.60...! What has 2 weeks got to do with rating/pricing the chance of horses at this point in time? You think $4 is good value for In Secret - at what price would you stop backing it? Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: What has 2 weeks got to do with rating the chance of horses at this point in time? Alot can change in 2 weeks...acceptances ,weather,plenty of variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 19 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: What has 2 weeks got to do with rating/pricing the chance of horses at this point in time? You think $4 is good value for In Secret - at what price would you stop backing it?  As I think it is a winning chance...it actually depends on who the opposition is on the day,track conditions,draw...to be definitive. As an example I backed the Boks to win the W.C before the Semi...@$2...by the final they were out to $2.25....I got concerned about a very wet pitch...and did not go again at the better odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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