Chief Stipe Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 30 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said: Sydney summer, Easter blue ribbon, and the QTIS sale are far better options, especially as the QTIS bonus scheme especially for fillies is so lucrative it's a no-brainer. Please provide your quantitative analysis that supports your claim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Why would they target the Blue Diamond or Golden Slipper? Te Akau have built their business on purchasing yearlings that do well as 2yr olds but go on to win Grp races both in NZ and OZ. The longevity of their horses is quite remarkable. Compare that to Gai Waterhouse's 2yr olds - the most successful Slipper trainer. Not only does she burn through a lot of expensive well bred yearlings to get to the Slipper very few go on. Remarkably the 3 best were all Aussie breds Imperatriz, MB & Avantage. Of those only Imperatriz can truly be taken seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Says you and Nomates. Wow that sure counts for something...NOT! Except that he NZ and Asian Pattern Committees and Longines agree with them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Should be more accurately named Episode 1 : Te Akau Infomercial 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 5 hours ago, curious said: Except that he NZ and Asian Pattern Committees and Longines agree with them. You're generalising somewhat. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 7 hours ago, Huey said: Remarkably the 3 best were all Aussie breds Imperatriz, MB & Avantage. Of those only Imperatriz can truly be taken seriously. Again a very narrow minded point of view. What's the point of the OZ bred comment? Melody Belle performed well in OZ. But of course you leave out a very long list very good horses. But then again you don't take anything NZ's top stables do seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Now do you understand what I mean by Tall Poppy Syndrome @Special Agent ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 We love the Kiwi racehorse, always did, always will, but reality is such that so many Kiwi black type races are punted onto our secondary racing channel. The other day they even ran with no sound, a race from Tuncurry took precedence. Maybe, just maybe for a few years ENTAIN might stimulate some interest as they throw bucks your way, nothing would please me more than to see NZ racing back where it belongs, right up there, but it aint gonna happen in my lifetime, sadly, sadly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 well whatever way you look at it . The Te Akau crew are doing a great job and having that much success now in Oz the permanent stable number is doubling for them at their Cranbourne Base. to about 50 in number I think. (so are tiny compared to rivals and with the results achieving are simply outstanding when comparing 'weight of numbers'. ) Quintessa looked great in her 2 runs , and another sprinter was going well lately in Vic too, name has slipped me for the moment (so not just Imperatriz).... so they are doing very well while just setting up still?. Once established , it seems certain they will soon be tackling the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper and having a good crack at it, like fellow kiwi ex-pats Busuttin /Young have done recently with their 2 year olds... and have a crack at beating the Massive Machines that are the GAi, Waller, Goldolphin, Snowdens and others on their elite Sydney turf . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: You're generalising somewhat. Really, how? I thought I had been quite specific. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Again a very narrow minded point of view. What's the point of the OZ bred comment? Melody Belle performed well in OZ. But of course you leave out a very long list very good horses. But then again you don't take anything NZ's top stables do seriously. MB won a G1 & a G2 in Aus. her only wins over there from memory, Avantage I think a G3 in Sydney was it,but both several NZ blacktype races that you like to talk up as being as strong as their Oz equivalents. Imperatriz well take my hat off to her an outright champion mare! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Now do you understand what I mean by Tall Poppy Syndrome @Special Agent ? Not admiring some outfit throwing other peoples $$ at high priced well bred yearlings and seeing the dart hit bullseye a few times is not being a "Tall Poppy" , thats just an easy way to explain away the rationale of it all. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wingman Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 I have looked at 6 premier/book 1 sales, 2015-2020 with the view that this should give a decent insight of the reality of David Ellis buying success. 2015- 25 lots purchased, 3 million spent, 122K average. Best buy Heroic Valour, 400K, nearly won back his price in prize money and sold to stud which would have given syndicate a profit. No other notables, top priced buy 800K, no good. 2016 - 15 lots 3.5M/232K . One gem, Melody Belle 57.5K/4.2M. Top buy 500K, no good. 2017 - 27 lots 4.6M/171K . One top horse, Avantage 210K/2.1M, one VG horse Pris de fir 100K/938K and Sword of Oman paid his way, 165K/287K. Highest purchase Al Hasa 625K/200K. No others that I saw of note. 2018 - 27 lots (again). 7.6M/282K One gem, Probabeel, 380K/4.5M. Two other decent racehorses, Aotea Lad, 200K/425K and Aromatic 160K/419K and the sold as a broodmare. Amongst the also rans were some expensive failures. Lethal, 1 Million and 25 thousand to return 6K as a placed maiden, Fall of Joy, 900K, unraced/deceased, Laureate 625K, placed 5K, Equinox 750K, 4 wins, 94K and Exaltation, 900k purchase, 5wins, 57K return. 2019 - 38 lots 7.7M/203K No gems, Amarelinha 300K/600K, Cool aza beel 150K/700K and Fashion Shoot 320K/to date 300K. Campionessa passed in at 70K, purchased later and to the delight of her syndicate, to date 1.2M. A poor buy was Conquistador 775K, placed to return less than 1K but the 'howler' is No Limits which Ellis went to 1.4Million to secure for a maiden win at Wanganui and a return of 6K. 2020 - 28 lots 6.6M/235K, no gems. Best was Noverre, 800K, won 2000 Guineas, 355K stakes and now at stud. On the bubbles 90K/953K, another KM winner. Highest price paid Espionage 875K/22K (1 win) and 'Ouch' an unnamed I Am Invincible colt $625,000...zip 160 lots purchased over 5 years/six Premier/Book 1 sales. 2 top class, 10 very good profitable horses gives a strike rate of; 7.5% 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Thank You Wingman, love your work. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 48 minutes ago, Wingman said: I have looked at 6 premier/book 1 sales, 2015-2020 with the view that this should give a decent insight of the reality of David Ellis buying success. 2015- 25 lots purchased, 3 million spent, 122K average. Best buy Heroic Valour, 400K, nearly won back his price in prize money and sold to stud which would have given syndicate a profit. No other notables, top priced buy 800K, no good. 2016 - 15 lots 3.5M/232K . One gem, Melody Belle 57.5K/4.2M. Top buy 500K, no good. 2017 - 27 lots 4.6M/171K . One top horse, Avantage 210K/2.1M, one VG horse Pris de fir 100K/938K and Sword of Oman paid his way, 165K/287K. Highest purchase Al Hasa 625K/200K. No others that I saw of note. 2018 - 27 lots (again). 7.6M/282K One gem, Probabeel, 380K/4.5M. Two other decent racehorses, Aotea Lad, 200K/425K and Aromatic 160K/419K and the sold as a broodmare. Amongst the also rans were some expensive failures. Lethal, 1 Million and 25 thousand to return 6K as a placed maiden, Fall of Joy, 900K, unraced/deceased, Laureate 625K, placed 5K, Equinox 750K, 4 wins, 94K and Exaltation, 900k purchase, 5wins, 57K return. 2019 - 38 lots 7.7M/203K No gems, Amarelinha 300K/600K, Cool aza beel 150K/700K and Fashion Shoot 320K/to date 300K. Campionessa passed in at 70K, purchased later and to the delight of her syndicate, to date 1.2M. A poor buy was Conquistador 775K, placed to return less than 1K but the 'howler' is No Limits which Ellis went to 1.4Million to secure for a maiden win at Wanganui and a return of 6K. 2020 - 28 lots 6.6M/235K, no gems. Best was Noverre, 800K, won 2000 Guineas, 355K stakes and now at stud. On the bubbles 90K/953K, another KM winner. Highest price paid Espionage 875K/22K (1 win) and 'Ouch' an unnamed I Am Invincible colt $625,000...zip 160 lots purchased over 5 years/six Premier/Book 1 sales. 2 top class, 10 very good profitable horses gives a strike rate of; 7.5% And that is my point , most people with decent knowledge and a decent sized purse can buy a number of well bred horses and pick out a few extra good ones , it's the law of averages . They all do it . Otherwise they would all be scrapping over the same few lots , which they often are , but then they all spread their ammo out because as everybody knows there is no sure fire formula so the more tickets you buy the more chances of winning . The rest with limited budgets buy what they can and hope like hell they got lucky . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 20 hours ago, Gammalite said: A great question ! .. 'No mates' or Joe Bloggs have been connected to galloping stables and may have a rough idea of what percentage of their stable was bred by v how many purchased by their stable owners. Haha I wish Gamma' , everything I bought I bought for myself . Bought a Per Incanto weanling filly at Karaka for $500 once , for someone else who asked me to find something for him , when his first crop were about to hit the track and they went BOOM , he left it in the paddock for a few months then got offered 30k but refused to sell for anything less than 60k . It returned nothing on the track and he's breeding from it and so far nada . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 6 hours ago, Huey said: Not admiring some outfit throwing other peoples $$ at high priced well bred yearlings and seeing the dart hit bullseye a few times is not being a "Tall Poppy" , thats just an easy way to explain away the rationale of it all. David Ellis buys all his yearlings upfront THEN syndicates them. If he can't syndicate them he owns them outright. Now if owners cough up $20m every year to join a syndicate then they do so because they want to and with their eyes open. The Te Akau syndicate contracts are the clearest I've ever seen. The majority of Trainers don't even bother with contracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 33 minutes ago, nomates said: And that is my point , most people with decent knowledge and a decent sized purse can buy a number of well bred horses and pick out a few extra good ones , it's the law of averages . They all do it . Otherwise they would all be scrapping over the same few lots , which they often are , but then they all spread their ammo out because as everybody knows there is no sure fire formula so the more tickets you buy the more chances of winning . The rest with limited budgets buy what they can and hope like hell they got lucky . What point? I can't see that you've made any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: What point? I can't see that you've made any. 🥱🥱🥱 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 25 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: What point? I can't see that you've made any. There are none so blind as those that cannot see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 54 minutes ago, nomates said: Haha I wish Gamma' , everything I bought I bought for myself . Bought a Per Incanto weanling filly at Karaka for $500 once , for someone else who asked me to find something for him , when his first crop were about to hit the track and they went BOOM , he left it in the paddock for a few months then got offered 30k but refused to sell for anything less than 60k . It returned nothing on the track and he's breeding from it and so far nada . You're too modest, didn't you buy into only three horses these past 3 seasons and from those 3 get two stakes horses? One in particular a Gr1 horse? Chief would give his left testicle for a record like that.......and from what I can see your third horse can gallop pretty fair too....... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bloggs Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 43 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: David Ellis buys all his yearlings upfront THEN syndicates them. If he can't syndicate them he owns them outright. Now if owners cough up $20m every year to join a syndicate then they do so because they want to and with their eyes open. The Te Akau syndicate contracts are the clearest I've ever seen. The majority of Trainers don't even bother with contracts. Ever seen their accounts? some are mind boggling, one I've seen matches the GDP of a third world country...FFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said: There are none so blind as those that cannot see. Some things never change mate , the obtuse one hasn't changed his colors , as we knew he wouldn't . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said: You're too modest, didn't you buy into only three horses these past 3 seasons and from those 3 get two stakes horses? One in particular a Gr1 horse? Chief would give his left testicle for a record like that.......and from what I can see your third horse can gallop pretty fair too....... As I said buy enough then lightening can strike and occasionally more than once . I haven't got enough time tonight to list the failures . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: The majority of Trainers don't even bother with contracts. What? All owners and trainers have a training agreement don't they? It is pretty clear to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.