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Bit Of A Yarn

Is it too soon to say


Walt

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the All Stars are losing top billing? 

We know Mark rules the roost but now has other ventures etc on his radar. Nathan is a good trainer but he's light years away from being in the same league as his dad. 

Just lately the All Stars no longer look invincible in races they usually dominate season after season. Brother Barry, the Dunn's and the Telfer's have been snapping at the heels of the All Stars for a few seasons and even poking their noses in front. Are we about to see them put more than just their noses in front? 

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1 hour ago, Walt said:

the All Stars are losing top billing? 

We know Mark rules the roost but now has other ventures etc on his radar. Nathan is a good trainer but he's light years away from being in the same league as his dad. 

Just lately the All Stars no longer look invincible in races they usually dominate season after season. Brother Barry, the Dunn's and the Telfer's have been snapping at the heels of the All Stars for a few seasons and even poking their noses in front. Are we about to see them put more than just their noses in front? 

Yep, certainly looks that way. 

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Looks like it Walt with Akuta and Millwood Nike injured they are short of their 2 best stars.

The horse you nominated as class act in Chase The Dream is still going well , and Won the rich Sires Stakes Final last week , and so might be the NZ Derby Favourite for later in the year.

OscarB the defending Dominion winner still might be a Rowe Cup chance.

Don't Stop Dreaming had an incredible season with 2nds in many Big Races in NZ and Oz including the narrow loss in the Grin RACE and Hunter Cup,  and is a chance to go through the Million dollars in prizemoney soon. But as you say Merlin been tipping him over a few times has shown maybe the Allstars Top billing has gone 😪 .

Roy's Silver grey colours are back and Winning more, so they Allstars might be just bridesmaids now with the Telfers and Dunn's in the bridal party looking for a bouquet as well. 😁  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brodie said:

What has changed then, surely changing regime hasn't altered?

 

Thats my view as well brodie.

Nothing would have changed.

On top of that they will still be using the same vets.

The significance of mark purdon not being there,while important, is over rated in my opinion.

nows a new era and theres no denying there will only ever be one mark purdon so we shouldn't expect his sons to start off as if they are as good from the get go.

having said that.

I personally think they had already come back to the same level of playing field that the other top stables have in the last 3 or so years.

It was when natalie rasmussen came along the all star horses got a turbo boost. 

Just look at the udr's.

the stats tell the story and don't have opinions,just facts.

but ,i do have an opinion and think part of the reason would have been her driving as shes so good,but it had to have been only only part of the reason as they consistently produced multiple horses to run top 3 and even top 5 ,several lengths ahead of the rest.She was only driving one of them.

Edited by the galah
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I must admit despite not wagering I enjoyed the racing last night. 

John Dunn put on a driving clinic. He drives with a belief he's on the best and fittest horse and invariably he is. The Welcome Stakes told a powerful story. The more the race progressed the more it looked like the name Dunn would be saluting and the best the All Stars could hope for even with Blair driving was a placing. That is light years from what we've been witnessing for at least the last decade. Have to be impressed with how strong Got The Chocolates is late in races. Dominates them.

John ensures he's not caught blocked in a hopeless position and is acutely aware of where his opposition is. He took a sustained look behind him for the All Star Rubira with a round to go in the Welcome Stakes. This reminded me in absolutely no way whatsoever what Brent Barclay did at Winton last weekend on the hot pot that was a certainty beaten. 

What I especially enjoyed was the authenticity of the races I watched. Great drive by young Carter on Ebury Street and his followers would have been delighted with the price. 

I liked seeing Takeitout not gifting the race to Tokyo Rose. If Sam gets her way in front it's often game over. Takeitout turned it into a race. John Dunn on the winner Ideal Double owes Tim a beer. 

Bet N Win looking the real deal. Great to see. Would love a share in him.

Auckland Trots provided a few talking points.

The betting on Escape Artist and the lack thereof with stablemate Better Knuckle Up was telling. As was the manner in which both were driven. One driven to win.....no comment on the other.

Not sure what to make of the run of Don't Stop Dreaming. Was asked to do the impossible despite the number of big races he's had over many months. The usual dynamic in such races is the All Stars controlling the race from the outset and the result appearing a formality almost from the off. That important aspect was not evident. Is Don't Stop Dreaming a tired horse that has lost his edge? Just asking. Don't want to go the early crow as horses can make a fool of you very quickly. 

Empire City was well driven by Rick. The schoolgirl interview with Phil post race was cringe. Surely we can do better than that? What audience is Trackside aiming at there? School leavers?

Muscle Mountain got it badly wrong in the Rowe Cup last year but still ran huge. Looks like the Hope's are keen to put that right next week. Muscle Mountain looked back to his best but the Aussie raider will be very very hard to beat. Oscar Bonavena looks tired to my eye. He raced on heart last night but didn't have that sharpness in the straight. Ben Hope seemed to shut the gate abruptly on Mark just as he was going for the run between Ben and the horse on the inner. Didn't see the head on but there is real potential there for something nobody wants to see.  

I won't taint my current buzz on harness racing by watching the Invercargill workouts today. 

 

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10 hours ago, the galah said:

I personally think they had already come back to the same level of playing field that the other top stables have in the last 3 or so years.

It was when natalie rasmussen came along the all star horses got a turbo boost. 

Well I think you are dreaming if you say they have lost a wheel in that time frame.

Akuta raced Magnificently winning the last Auckland Cup and 2nd to the Aussie in NZ CUP.

Self Assured won the last TWO NZ FFA's . even as an old horse. and also the Inaugural Grin RACE for a $1,000,000. Millwood Nike won everything she was in. Oscar started winning everything when Sundee retired, including the last Dominion. 

9 (Nine) NZ Derbies in a row !!! before the tragic 2nd place last year by DSD to Brother barry's 'Merlin' ended that staggering run . 8 or 9  x 3 year old Sires Stakes in a row (and still going winning again last week 🏆💰

there ya go mate . there's 8 of your ABsolute TOP Notch Class Races, still ALL being won by the Allstars in the 'last 3 years or so' as you say. 

They've lost nothing mate. Others are still chasing ?  'Chasing The Dream' one might say ? 😄👍

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10 hours ago, the galah said:

but ,i do have an opinion and think part of the reason would have been her driving as shes so good,but it had to have been only only part of the reason as they consistently produced multiple horses to run top 3 and even top 5 ,several lengths ahead of the rest.She was only driving one of them.

So what's the "other part of the reason"?

Although I concur with @Gammalite that your analysis is way off and factually baseless.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gammalite said:

Well I think you are dreaming if you say they have lost a wheel in that time frame.

Akuta raced Magnificently winning the last Auckland Cup and 2nd to the Aussie in NZ CUP.

Self Assured won the last TWO NZ FFA's . even as an old horse. and also the Inaugural Grin RACE for a $1,000,000. Millwood Nike won everything she was in. Oscar started winning everything when Sundee retired, including the last Dominion. 

9 (Nine) NZ Derbies in a row !!! before the tragic 2nd place last year by DSD to Brother barry's 'Merlin' ended that staggering run . 8 or 9  x 3 year old Sires Stakes in a row (and still going winning again last week 🏆💰

there ya go mate . there's 8 of your ABsolute TOP Notch Class Races, still ALL being won by the Allstars in the 'last 3 years or so' as you say. 

They've lost nothing mate. Others are still chasing ?  'Chasing The Dream' one might say ? 😄👍

Only a fool would dispute their achievements Gamma. I don't believe anyone is doing that. The All Stars set the benchmark and set it very high. They will continue winning quality races but there is a change unfolding regarding their once invincible dominance. 

As much as I respect the family and their achievements, I don't feel the same sets of owners taking the cream off the cake season after season is good thing for the game. Perhaps that's why horses like Franco Ice, The Bru Czar, Dillon Dale and Dean etc etc were big favs. They always had to do it the hard way and at times against opposition prepared to use their numerical advantage to nullify them even if that meant deploying a sacrificial lamb. 

Perhaps I'm an idealist at heart. I love a good fight but it needs to be a fair fight

Edited by Walt
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11 hours ago, the galah said:

It was when natalie rasmussen came along the all star horses got a turbo boost.

Well they could have 2  strong chances in Every Major Feature race thereafter I spose. from about 2010 onwards possibly?.  that's when Blacks A fake finished up in Oz for Nat.  (interesting funfact that champ never won in NZ in 3 starts there 🙄

But Mark was fantastic way before that mate. right from the Get-go in the 90's.  

Winning the Interdomion for his dad and Barry with Mark Hanover at home in Auckland around 92' , and then going out on his own , winning an enormous amount of NZ Derbies , had Il Vicolo , trotter Pride of Petite winning everything. And a whole heap of great trotters like Buster , etc...The list of 100 horses I could reel off for you winning Feature races,  before Natalie came along is just through the ceiling 'Incredible'. 

Most Trainers can't even get horses into these races , let alone WIN them all the time . Mark is the 'Usain Bolt' of harness. Always been in front of the field.

Shame about American Me stopping him Winning the ROY PURDON Memorial' last night , but handicaps are designed to even up the contest. so it worked I spose . as it has in 100+ years of trotting history in NZ

 

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Yes, stable had some fantastic horses…. But let’s get real. 
 

Around the so called blood 💉 era, well it seems nothing was illegal? But come on, some of those performances 3 wide, real quick times by their good nags, but also their 2nd tier nags was hard to believe. Is the stable still involved with it??

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Posted (edited)

AllStars just arent as dominant as they were a year or so ago!

Mark has got other things on his mind, he has clearly stated this!

You can not really blame him for losing a bit of interest as just like male stallions they lose interest in racing at some stage and therefore retire from racing !

You need to be so dedicated to be getting up very early in the morning and finish late, 7 days a week and to the scale that MArk and Natalie and co. have been operating under.

Without Mark on the scene there is no doubt they will not be operating at the same level and if the current owners are not getting the same results they have been over the last few years, they will spread their horses around to other trainers!

This has already started to occur as most of us know that the training costs to have a horse trained at the AllStars is not chicken feed!

Personally wish Nathan and Michael all the best with the training at AllStars as they have massive boots to fill!

Edited by Brodie
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Gammalite said:

Well I think you are dreaming if you say they have lost a wheel in that time frame.

Akuta raced Magnificently winning the last Auckland Cup and 2nd to the Aussie in NZ CUP.

Self Assured won the last TWO NZ FFA's . even as an old horse. and also the Inaugural Grin RACE for a $1,000,000. Millwood Nike won everything she was in. Oscar started winning everything when Sundee retired, including the last Dominion. 

9 (Nine) NZ Derbies in a row !!! before the tragic 2nd place last year by DSD to Brother barry's 'Merlin' ended that staggering run . 8 or 9  x 3 year old Sires Stakes in a row (and still going winning again last week 🏆💰

there ya go mate . there's 8 of your ABsolute TOP Notch Class Races, still ALL being won by the Allstars in the 'last 3 years or so' as you say. 

They've lost nothing mate. Others are still chasing ?  'Chasing The Dream' one might say ? 😄👍

Ok. just top prove nothing was a dream i will quote the udr's.

This isn't opinion,just fact. 

so in the last 25 years mark purdon has trained on his own,in partnership with greg payne,hayden cullen,natalire rasmussen and now his son nathan.

In those 25 years,8 were in partnership with natalie rasmissen.

Of those 8 years,7 of the 8 were when m purdon had his best udr's.

his partnership with nathan purdon last year,from the remaining 17 years,was the only other one to score in the top 8..

 2020/21  was the year that the purdon/rasmussen saw a drop in the udr and their last year in partnership. Of course the impacts from covid would have been had an effect not just on the racetrack but off.

mark purdons worst udr ,if you can call it that,was in 2007 (.2836).

hence my comment about rasmussen being a factor in the boost in performance.

As to your refering to top performances in the last 3 years.

quite right to point those out,but you probably know i have started a handful of posts on here questioning how the all stars horses are able to lift their performances for the big days.

And i have given the reasons why i believe that.

They were,i  had a rating system which i did for a few  years,although no longer bother this year.I gave eevry horse a rating every time it ran.

what i had was a system which consistently horses would run at. Obviously some would improve and some drop off,but one pattern that emerged and was the significant improvement( normally 5-10 lengths) the all stars could come up with 90% of their horses on the big days. that was always there,even in the last 5 years .

people can argue why that is or whether they agree.

so thats parts opinion,but i trust my judgment. 

 

 

everyone has their own opinion and i have just given mine.

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1 hour ago, the galah said:

so thats parts opinion,but i trust my judgment

But you haven't justified your opinion and thus your judgement.

Your UDR analysis is clearly inaccurate.  We've argued this before however you continue to push an opinion that isn't backed up by the numbers.

For example you don't take into consideration stakes earned per number of starts.

Not to forget that there is still over 7 months of the season to go yet.

Early crow you lot.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

But you haven't justified your opinion and thus your judgement.

Your UDR analysis is clearly inaccurate.  We've argued this before however you continue to push an opinion that isn't backed up by the numbers.

For example you don't take into consideration stakes earned per number of starts.

Not to forget that there is still over 7 months of the season to go yet.

Early crow you lot.

Well my comments about what the udr's have been in the last 25 years, were to justify why i said purdons results got a major boost when rasmussen came along.

I've just looked up the stakes won and when rasmussen came along mark purdon went from having mostly about double the nearest trainer to being treble with rasmussen.

so that again just confirms what i said.Rasmussen brought to the partnership .

also i haven't gone the early crow.

i actually said earlier i can't see much changing at the all stars and from that i would assume they will still be at or near the top of the ladder.

they will still have the systems and techniques in place to boost performance for the big days.

Mark purdon was undeniably the benchmark for nz trainers,but personally i think the media over hyped the gap between his training abilities and other top trainers.

 

Edited by the galah
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20 hours ago, the galah said:

having said that.

I personally think they had already come back to the same level of playing field that the other top stables have in the last 3 or so years.

 

3 hours ago, the galah said:

As to your refering to top performances in the last 3 years.

quite right to point those out,but you probably know i have started a handful of posts on here questioning how the all stars horses are able to lift their performances for the big days.

Mate you were the one who said the comment about the last 3 years. as you can plainly see here in your personal opinion.

So I gave many examples of the races that Mark Purdon has won in the past 3 years. He still is a feature player. and the one to beat (on most occasions) 😉

You should remember the 'Official' Allstars brand of 'Mark and Nat ' was retired on new years Eve 2020 when Amazing Dream smacked out that brilliant Auckland Cup win. What a finish !!! 

and as you say the 'patchwork of Cullen (All-triangles) , Nathan and whoever since is probably not quite as strong overall anymore. (John Dunn even got the 'chocolates' in the Welcome Stakes Friday )🤣😂 defeating them (Mark and Nathan horses)  comfortably.  so as Walt is asking perhaps the tide is turning. Weight of numbers gets results. How many do Dunn's work there on the beach ? seems a lot of runners at times. there was 20 starters at Addington 2 weeks ago 😳  .

also some Payne bloke trained with him for a while .was he any good . or just All-squares ? 😅😎

Yes when the REAL Allstars partnership started (Mark and Natalie 🥰) they had 2 strong chances every feature race nearly from 2010 on for a while so am not surprised of the increase in Stakes Won that you have mentioned for Mark Purdon . With Smolda and Lazarus and a few awesome performers in those years we were given a treat of the best on the Planet ! well done to NZ harness 🏆(and the little QLD lass joining in to help it along )

 

 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

 

Mate you were the one who said the comment about the last 3 years. as you can plainly see here in your personal opinion.

 

to which you replied .

And in that reply you replied referencing my comment about the last 3 years. see below.

10 hours ago, Gammalite said:

 

there ya go mate . there's 8 of your ABsolute TOP Notch Class Races, still ALL being won by the Allstars in the 'last 3 years or so' as you say. 

They've lost nothing mate. Others are still chasing ?  'Chasing The Dream' one might say ? 😄👍

.

then i replied.

4 hours ago, the galah said:

as to your refering to top performances in the last 3 years.

quite right to point those out,but you probably know i have started a handful of posts on here questioning how the all stars horses are able to lift their performances for the big days.

 

So,the start of your last reply is a bit bemusing..

 

but anyway, i know you love the all stars.

i acknowledge their undeniable abilities as well, i have great repect for them in many ways,but given my views,don't put them on the pedestal you do. 

Edited by the galah
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10 hours ago, Newmarket said:

Around the so called blood 💉 era, well it seems nothing was illegal? But come on, some of those performances 3 wide, real quick times by their good nags, but also their 2nd tier nags was hard to believe. Is the stable still involved with it??

So how do you explain that the horses that are winning now are running faster than during your so called "blood era"?

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1 hour ago, the galah said:

i acknowledge their undeniable abilities as well, i have great repect for them in many ways,but given my views,don't put them on the pedestal you do. 

You don't because you believe they cheat yet have provided zero evidence that they do.  Mind you given like @Newmarket you are a poor student of form analysis I guess you need fo clutch at straws.

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1 hour ago, the galah said:

So,the start of your last reply is a bit bemusing..

 

but anyway, i know you love the all stars.

i acknowledge their undeniable abilities as well, i have great repect for them in many ways,but given my views,don't put them on the pedestal you do. 

hahaha sorry old mate i'm always a bit bemused by it all so didn't mean to create same for you lol.

I put quite a few on a Pedestal really. Currently Leap To Fame, Just Believe, well generally ANY Interdominion Grand Final winner gets my upmost respect as the Champion of both Nations. So they are my Ultimate favourites on the Winning Pedestal . 🏆🏆  yeah Allstars I guess, Emma Stewart stable , Phil Williamson with trotters, probably Dean Shannon lol for bringing the money to NZ and giving Barry and Phelan a lot of horses that have really taken it up to the Allstars stable with Merlin and Co lately. (makes the racing even better) 

Just can't come to the Grimson /Trainor/Seaton  'Improvement party' though.  and am bemused they ruined my Interdominion Pedestal by winning with battlers Boncel Benjamin and I cast No Shadow and then the Nz Cup with Swayzee so I'm very bemused by All that crap 😅😂.

NZ quinella again just now in the fast class at Menangle . Northerners TAIPO and SIMPLY SAM. We're lucky Dean Shannon (and also Herlihy clients) are repopulating those northern stables or they would run out of horses . Boom and Classy Operator won tonight as well. Classy Operator won last 3 of 4 starts now and is just jumping out of the ground. Very Bemusing

Classy Operator that horse the Dylan Ferguson team drive with that time at Auckland that you noticed . One of those suicide drives on the young horses 3 years ago to the day . When he drove for the stable-mate MeetmeinSorrento to win. think Classy was just a 2yearold then to against the older horses. Ferguson should of got months DQ for that drive. One of the most Bemusing things I've ever seen😅🤣   whatta shocker that was. 

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Been watching a bit of Harness lately , up close and live , so will put my tuppence in re the Purdon domination which has been obvious and outstanding for decades.

Of late ,Barry Purdon has enjoyed outstanding success and as well as heaping praise on his co-trainer Scott Phelan he admits that he now has the owners who will pay the big money to get the best horses from the yearling sales. He said this has made a big difference to his results and again in 2024 his stable and clients have been among the top buyers. Of course Dean Shannon is among the biggest , and he has others as well[some paying $200k plus in 2024]. He is also getting some of the hghest priced trotters as well. Last nights Auckland trot for 2 yr old [Group 3] was won by Higher Power [ $120k as yearling in 2023] from Mean't To Be [$145 k yearling]. This syndicate incl Barry also bought the top lot in 2024.

Of course Mark Purdon has always had big spending owners who have enjoyed amazing success incl Aussie June Feiss and one buyer who only buys one horse a year with amazing success.

Some of his big owners have ,I believe seen the downside of one-stable domination and in past few years spread their horses around more ,plus Mark declines some !

I doubt the sons can achieve their Dad's success. He had an eye for a horse , was a master horseman and is a great driver. When he joined with Natalie their firepower and qualities doubled cos like him she too had master qualities , possibly even a better driver and they both worked incredibly hard.

That team can't and won't be matched. In recent years they decided to concentrate on horses who could achieve results at Premier and Group meetings and they ruthlessly cut any horses who did not meet these standards. These would be the years of their standout UDR.

I know this cos a couple of my syndicates got horses into the stable and even before they had trialled they were sent packing. One well bred horse won a trial and raced at Addington for a handy second but was sent packing even though the main owner had a few in the stable. Their standards were high. That horse won about 4 races from 40 starts afterwards!

Years ago I had been in Syndicate horses with the All Stars which made the original cut. One raced in early 2yr old races ,when clearly not in their top two cos it driven by David Butt or Jim Curtin and it won a big Group 1 race. Then as a 3 yr old it won another G1,Mark took a liking to it so even when it got a very serious structural injury he rehabbed it and it came back and won a few more races before being cut loose !.

Then another syndicate horse who I liked , Mark won 4 races quite quickly and it could run 4th or 5th in group 1 races. Mark said "I recommend you sell it" .The Syndicate voted 'no way'.....over about 3 more seasons it won one more lowly race.

Mark had said at the time he had 6x better horses same age in his stable......he was right !

Master horseman !

 

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As Meatloaf sang.....I would do anything for love.

But love of what? a woman, success, $$$, Glory ?

The All Star domination of harness racing has set new benchmarks. At times I looked on in awe and seized the opportunity to make some very easy money. If the money was up, it was going to the All Stars and their owners. At times the awe turned to curiosity. How does a horse work harder than everything else in the race yet still easily dominate them? How do Cardigan Bays keep rolling off the production line? Despite the Light and Sound, John Seaton "situation', I've never suspected skullduggery. 

Like Gammalite, we remember the early days of Mark Purdon. He's been standing out with excellence at what he does for a long time. I've doffed my invincible cap to him many times. He's also got a great eye for picking out a potential star. This will not go unnoticed by owners with deep pockets. I've never actually met Mark but he strikes me as an affable guy easy to get along with. This will also appeal to owners.

You add a driver like Natalie Rasmussen to that mix, a proven training and nutrition method along with a team in the background all on the same page you have the perfect recipe for success. 

Mark and Natalie obviously know exactly how to get the best out their charges. That would all be pointless if they didn't also know how to control the outcome of races as quickly as possible from the off. They were near unbeatable. This was even more so when Natalie took the drive.

Along the way I haven't embraced this domination. Some owners / trainers routinely come up with a star on the track. For most others it's the dream that keeps them in the game. Imagine finally breeding or buying a horse capable of winning G1's but having virtually no hope of doing so in your home country. Would you become disillusioned? Call me old fashioned but I love watching the jubilation and joy of people winning their first Group 1. They remind me of Dick Tayler winning the 1974 Commonwealth Games 10,000 metres Gold medal in Christchurch. That never stopped me being in awe of the All Stars but it did present a personal quandary.

When partnerships come to an end and a different love comes into play for the captain, how can a stable continue on with the same domination? That sort of domination needs a 100% full time commitment and passion.  What Mark has said publicly does not marry up with that. It's one thing to oversee the goings on from a far careful not to undermine the next generation and to be living that day in day out. I believe Mark will likely always have some involvement leading up to the biggest days on the calendar but not the month in month out dynamic. As a result, asking the question about the end of the All Star domination is a reasonable question rather than going the "early crow". For the record, I'm happy to share my perspective prior to the event rather than be a Monday punter after the fact. I don't ask the question based on the Welcome Stakes alone but instead factor in multiple dynamics I've been witnessing.

I believe The Galah makes some valid points and does his homework. Some I agree with, some not so much. He has a good eye, a good brain, a ton of experience and a perspective I enjoy reading which is what this site is about....Right?  

Anecdotal evidence and factual number crunching are obviously two different things. Some times the anecdotal evidence is contradicted and sometimes the stats are contradicted. I value both. 

I have a catalog of anecdotal evidence that I won't share with you at this time as my good lady is waiting for me to bring in her cup of tea with a smile. I'll collect my reward later :) 

I will say this. I've made a small fortune over the years from anecdotal evidence that wasn't always backed up by the stats. My advice is ignore anecdotal evidence at your peril. 

To close, I have always admired the Jones / Butt dynasty. I know some of them personally and you'll struggle to meet finer people anywhere in life. They are Gold. I believe the Purdon Dynasty deserve equal admiration and respect. 

 

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1 hour ago, Walt said:

I will say this. I've made a small fortune over the years from anecdotal evidence that wasn't always backed up by the stats. My advice is ignore anecdotal evidence at your peril. 

Anecdotal evidence by its very definition is unreliable and often untrue.  Frankly it's a more sophisticated term for gossip.  Harness Racing is full of that gossip and most of it is malicious.

As for the All Stars falling off their pedestal it hasn't happened yet.  Their performance is still within their normal seasonal variance.

Yes I'm saying early crow and wishful thinking by those who have often been their biggest critics.

Time will tell if the Purdon dynasty continues.

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