2000 Guineas field

[Freda]

15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

If the choice is race on a Soft 6 or have a horse spend 12 hours in a float because the meeting was abandoned after Race 1 then I'd go for the Soft 6.

However the reported ratings and other rating metrics (or lack of) are a nonsense and ultimately detract from the good efforts of track staff.

Why didn't they upgrade the track rating later to what was obviously a Good 4?  

Beats me.

Maybe no one asked the riders?

 

[Chief Stipe]

16 minutes ago, Freda said:

Beats me.

Maybe no one asked the riders?

 

Or look at the stopwatch?

[Huey]

The winner looks any sort of horse as well , very impressive & picked up at the sales for a very reasonable $400k I heard mentioned on TS. 

How do they keep coming up with these bargain buys?

[Murray Fish]

39 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

f the choice is race on a Soft 6 or have a horse spend 12 hours in a float because the meeting was abandoned after Race 1 then I'd go for the Soft 6.

I recall reading a interesting article/interview (on The Straight??) about unevenness to certain parts of tracks with the watering of the tracks and how that can so play out in the run of the race. He had access and use mass data showing that to be so! That then leading to many races being very misleading into future races!  Personally, it has meant I now watch and watch way more races that I bet into!  Intellectually and practically, more and more my betting focus has shifted to MLB, but way more nickels and dimes stuff to what my horses betting  once was.

40 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Why didn't they upgrade the track rating later to what was obviously a Good 4? 

Perhaps a letter from Trainers Ass asking why?

[Chief Stipe]

33 minutes ago, Huey said:

How do they keep coming up with these bargain buys?

Research and an open mind.

[MattTheHat]

2 hours ago, Freda said:

And that with 'too much water'   ?   what utter bollocks.  For once, the CJC track staff deserve praise for getting the surface as spot on as could be managed - esp given the capricious weather.

There was for sure a fast strip 3 or 4 off the fence where horses could run times. Unfortunately though it wasnt consistent across the whole track, Which I think is always the case when we put too much water on within 48 hrs of our raceday (18mls on Thursday night)

The outside was quite wet and the fence was off to start the day. Have a look at the barrier draws and replays of the first four races.

Did it dry out during the day? Of course.

The aim is to have a Good 4 for the majority of the raceday that is fair racing for all involved, punters and participants alike. Did we get that? No

Yes I think they were a victim of an inaccurate weather report but I also think 18mls is too much to be putting on that close to racing which I have voiced.

Hopefully it gets rectified and everyone gets a fair crack at the rest of the carnival

Alan and the crew generally get it right. I hate how all of a sudden they get hundreds of "experts" at this time of the year trying to tell them how to manage it. I'm sure if left alone they would get it right again

[curious]

18 minutes ago, MattTheHat said:

The aim is to have a Good 4 for the majority of the raceday that is fair racing for all involved, punters and participants alike. Did we get that? No

I think we did and fairplay to the track management team there for achieving that in tricky circumstances on a track that is not easy to manage. I hope they put a good dollop of water back on it last night for Wednesday.

[Chief Stipe]

33 minutes ago, MattTheHat said:

There was for sure a fast strip 3 or 4 off the fence where horses could run times. Unfortunately though it wasnt consistent across the whole track, Which I think is always the case when we put too much water on within 48 hrs of our raceday (18mls on Thursday night)

In my opinion that isn't related to how much irrigation was applied on the Thursday.  It is a combination of a number of challenging factors to manage.

For example - how much do you apply?  5ml?  10ml? 12ml? You don't seem to disagree that am amount should have been applied.

In my opinion the issue goes back before Thursday.  We don't have full access to the daily water budget for the track.  But if smaller amounts had been applied more regularly then that would negate the need for a large dollop all at once.  One of the reasons you need to apply large amounts is when the track is dry you initially get run off and because of disparity in underlying soil and drainage some sections will get wet quicker hence the creation of fast and slow lanes.

So ideally you keep the track and moisture level in a narrow soft range and THEN play the weather forecast closer to raceday.

Perhaps they did that but because the top layer soil structure is stuffed you don't have much buffer to get it wrong.

43 minutes ago, MattTheHat said:

Alan and the crew generally get it right. I hate how all of a sudden they get hundreds of "experts" at this time of the year trying to tell them how to manage it. I'm sure if left alone they would get it right again

Well we did have some trainers joining the hundreds of experts.  

The track managers should be blamed the least for these issues.  They are trying to manage tracks that have had no substantial renovation or annual maintenance investment for decades.

[Wingman]

30 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

The track managers should be blamed the least for these issues.  They are trying to manage tracks that have had no substantial renovation or annual maintenance investment for decades.

Correct. When we get to summer racing Dec - Feb the the problems magnify as the NZTR management insist on watering protocols that in many cases just make tracks anything but summer tracks . Think Otaki in Feb when they were coming down the outside fence. When the new CEO is announced there is a final opportunity (As long as the appointment is not internal) to once and for all sort this out. They fluffed about for more than a decade with Hastings before doing what should have happened last decade and it is obvious that Trentham and Riccarton need to get the same intensive renovations. Also do it once do it right. Ellerslie and Te Aroha both glaring examples of how not to go about it.

[Freda]

6 hours ago, MattTheHat said:

There was for sure a fast strip 3 or 4 off the fence where horses could run times. Unfortunately though it wasnt consistent across the whole track, Which I think is always the case when we put too much water on within 48 hrs of our raceday (18mls on Thursday night)

The outside was quite wet and the fence was off to start the day. Have a look at the barrier draws and replays of the first four races.

Did it dry out during the day? Of course.

The aim is to have a Good 4 for the majority of the raceday that is fair racing for all involved, punters and participants alike. Did we get that? No

Yes I think they were a victim of an inaccurate weather report but I also think 18mls is too much to be putting on that close to racing which I have voiced.

Hopefully it gets rectified and everyone gets a fair crack at the rest of the carnival

Alan and the crew generally get it right. I hate how all of a sudden they get hundreds of "experts" at this time of the year trying to tell them how to manage it. I'm sure if left alone they would get it right again

A well -reasoned post, Matt.    I think the Chief has answered most of your concerns however, better than I could;  I for one thought the track raced fairly and I didn't hear any adverse comments from riders while I was there.   The times certainly indicated that as well

I don't agree that the track crew nearly always get it right.  We had a rough and hard track last month - and Cup Day two years ago, as a couple of reminders...now I'm not pointing the bone here, there is no way that trackmen want to make a cock up, they will be doing their best.

But with a compromised soil structure and possibly pressure from elsewhere they are between a rock and a hard place.  If the track had NOT been watered Thursday, it would have been very hard.

Again the Chief has answered your thoughts on that.  But I think we all agree that perfection is the ideal, it's just bloody hard to get.

 

[curious]

Monday Morning 

Weather: Fine

Track: Soft 5

Moisture Meter: 41.9%

Rail: True

Rainfall: No Rain Last 24 Hours | No Rain Last 7 Days

Irrigation: 12mm Saturday Night

Weather and Track updated at 9.03am Monday 11 November

[MattTheHat]

Agree with a lot of what has been said above but I just don't agree at all with watering within 48 hours of a meeting here in Canterbury as I feel our track dries out inconsistently and therefore ends up with obvious faster strips and track biases.

I don't protest to water being put on but do think we should put enough on, early enough to cover your bases and let mother nature handle the last couple days leading into a meeting.

I'm no expert and don't claim to be but do feel like that's when our track races best and fairest.

I see they are watering again tonight. Just hope not too much and that it's a more consistent surface than what it was on Saturday

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, MattTheHat said:

I don't protest to water being put on but do think we should put enough on, early enough to cover your bases and let mother nature handle the last couple days leading into a meeting.

That is close to what I think given the constraints facing the track manager.  However it wouldn't be that hard if the track was renovated.

However when you have 3 big meetings in 8 days you don't have many options if you are not going to irrigate within 2 days of a raceday.

Looking at the forecast this week you probably wouldn't want to irrigate again.

[MattTheHat]

12 mls put on last night, Now back to a Slow7

[curious]

15 minutes ago, MattTheHat said:

12 mls put on last night, Now back to a Slow7

Should be about right at current evaporation rates by race time tomorrow?

[MattTheHat]

6 hours ago, curious said:

Should be about right at current evaporation rates by race time tomorrow?

Back to a 6 now, hopefully get more drying before the first tomorrow or we could have a a bit of bias again to start the day

[Special Agent]

On 11/11/2024 at 8:12 PM, MattTheHat said:

I don't protest to water being put on but do think we should put enough on, early enough to cover your bases and let mother nature handle the last couple days leading into a meeting.

I think you have hit the nail on the hatted head.

Whatever is done it has to be vastly different to what was done in the year of the abandonment.  That embarrassment cannot be repeated.

[curious]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/racing/mick-on-monday-savaglee-owners-turn-down-big-australian-offer/WVWGTFQA7ZCHXLMCGP7LFS62K4/

Mick on Monday: Savaglee owners turn down big Australian offer

By Michael Guerin

NZ Herald·

25 Nov, 2024 06:00 AM4 mins to read

---

Save

 

 

Savaglee winning the 2000 Guineas.

Savaglee is now New Zealand’s most valuable racehorse after his connections turned down a huge offer from Australia for the 2000 Guineas winner.

But while the 3-year-old colt isn’t going anywhere just yet, that doesn’t mean he is going to start either of our two richest races this summer.

Elite thoroughbred colts become mini-businesses in their own right these days, as major studs attempt to buy them, with the ultimate goal of a Group 1 win in Australia to thrust them into the A$15 million-plus value bracket.

Savaglee isn’t there yet, but a major Australian stud made his owners The Oaks Stud a multi-million dollar offer for Savaglee after his Guineas win at Riccarton but it was turned down.

“We are going to roll the dice on him at least through until the autumn,” says Oaks Stud general manager Rick Williams.

“It was a lot of money but our ultimate goal is to try and win an Australian Group 1, the most likely target being the Australian Guineas.

“The form and ratings guys we’ve spoken to suggest he is up to winning a race like that, and if he was able to pull that off, we think he’d double in value from the offer we just had.

“So that’s our plan, if of course he comes back as well as we hope, so we’ll start planning backwards from the [Australian] Guineas and go from there.”

The Australian Guineas is at Flemington on March 1, and if Savaglee heads there, it will rule him out of the inaugural running of the $3.5m NZB Kiwi slot race at Ellerslie on March 8.

“We love the NZB Kiwi concept and what Entain are doing for New Zealand racing, and if he was a gelding, he’d be heading there for sure,” says Williams.

“But being a colt, an Australian Group 1 has to be the major aim for his future stallion value, so we’ve already turned down a couple of NZB Kiwi slot holders who were keen to negotiate. We wanted to be fair and tell them upfront what our aim was.”

Williams says if Savaglee suffered a minor setback, even one missed race, that caused him to miss the Australian Guineas, they could re-route to the NZB Kiwi a week later.

“If something like that happened, then of course the Kiwi could become an option, if there was a slot that hadn’t be filled, as I imagine we would still be in demand.”

While racing plans are rarely set in stone, Williams’ transparency is likely to see Savaglee drop out of his $6 equal favouritism for the NZB Kiwi and punters should also avoid backing him in New Zealand’s second richest race, the $1.5m Karaka Million Three-Year-old at Ellerslie on January 25.

It is possible to race over 1600m in the Karaka Million in January and win the Australian Guineas five weeks later, as Legarto proved last year, but Williams says that is almost certainly not the path Savaglee will take.

“Obviously everything will depend on how he comes back, but so far, he looks great.

“He was 481kg when we put him in the paddock after Riccarton but has come back in weighing 500kg and is only getting stronger.

“So one target could be the Telegraph [Trentham, January 4] because it’s weight-for-age but more likely would be a race like the Almanzor Trophy on Karaka Millions night, then into possibly a BCD Sprint at Te Rapa [February 8].”

That would give Savaglee races at 1200m, then 1400m into the 1600m of the Guineas, which most trainers favour as a natural progression, so while he is not being ruled out of the Karaka Million Three-Year-Old, it looks unlikely and punters should steer clear until they hear otherwise.

Whether Savaglee eventually joins an Australian stud or stays in New Zealand could depend not only on whether he wins that Australian Group 1 but also on whether The Oaks Stud is sold.

The 200ha property on the outskirts of Cambridge has been placed on the market, as Australian-based owner Dick Karreman looks to free up some cash, and Williams says they would love to see the land stay in the racing industry.

But if The Oaks property is not sold, they would have the option of retaining Savaglee to stand at stud there when his career ends.

[Doomed]

5 hours ago, curious said:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/racing/mick-on-monday-savaglee-owners-turn-down-big-australian-offer/WVWGTFQA7ZCHXLMCGP7LFS62K4/

Mick on Monday: Savaglee owners turn down big Australian offer

By Michael Guerin

NZ Herald·

25 Nov, 2024 06:00 AM4 mins to read

---

Save

 

 

Savaglee winning the 2000 Guineas.

Savaglee is now New Zealand’s most valuable racehorse after his connections turned down a huge offer from Australia for the 2000 Guineas winner.

But while the 3-year-old colt isn’t going anywhere just yet, that doesn’t mean he is going to start either of our two richest races this summer.

Elite thoroughbred colts become mini-businesses in their own right these days, as major studs attempt to buy them, with the ultimate goal of a Group 1 win in Australia to thrust them into the A$15 million-plus value bracket.

Savaglee isn’t there yet, but a major Australian stud made his owners The Oaks Stud a multi-million dollar offer for Savaglee after his Guineas win at Riccarton but it was turned down.

“We are going to roll the dice on him at least through until the autumn,” says Oaks Stud general manager Rick Williams.

“It was a lot of money but our ultimate goal is to try and win an Australian Group 1, the most likely target being the Australian Guineas.

“The form and ratings guys we’ve spoken to suggest he is up to winning a race like that, and if he was able to pull that off, we think he’d double in value from the offer we just had.

“So that’s our plan, if of course he comes back as well as we hope, so we’ll start planning backwards from the [Australian] Guineas and go from there.”

The Australian Guineas is at Flemington on March 1, and if Savaglee heads there, it will rule him out of the inaugural running of the $3.5m NZB Kiwi slot race at Ellerslie on March 8.

“We love the NZB Kiwi concept and what Entain are doing for New Zealand racing, and if he was a gelding, he’d be heading there for sure,” says Williams.

“But being a colt, an Australian Group 1 has to be the major aim for his future stallion value, so we’ve already turned down a couple of NZB Kiwi slot holders who were keen to negotiate. We wanted to be fair and tell them upfront what our aim was.”

Williams says if Savaglee suffered a minor setback, even one missed race, that caused him to miss the Australian Guineas, they could re-route to the NZB Kiwi a week later.

“If something like that happened, then of course the Kiwi could become an option, if there was a slot that hadn’t be filled, as I imagine we would still be in demand.”

While racing plans are rarely set in stone, Williams’ transparency is likely to see Savaglee drop out of his $6 equal favouritism for the NZB Kiwi and punters should also avoid backing him in New Zealand’s second richest race, the $1.5m Karaka Million Three-Year-old at Ellerslie on January 25.

It is possible to race over 1600m in the Karaka Million in January and win the Australian Guineas five weeks later, as Legarto proved last year, but Williams says that is almost certainly not the path Savaglee will take.

“Obviously everything will depend on how he comes back, but so far, he looks great.

“He was 481kg when we put him in the paddock after Riccarton but has come back in weighing 500kg and is only getting stronger.

“So one target could be the Telegraph [Trentham, January 4] because it’s weight-for-age but more likely would be a race like the Almanzor Trophy on Karaka Millions night, then into possibly a BCD Sprint at Te Rapa [February 8].”

That would give Savaglee races at 1200m, then 1400m into the 1600m of the Guineas, which most trainers favour as a natural progression, so while he is not being ruled out of the Karaka Million Three-Year-Old, it looks unlikely and punters should steer clear until they hear otherwise.

Whether Savaglee eventually joins an Australian stud or stays in New Zealand could depend not only on whether he wins that Australian Group 1 but also on whether The Oaks Stud is sold.

The 200ha property on the outskirts of Cambridge has been placed on the market, as Australian-based owner Dick Karreman looks to free up some cash, and Williams says they would love to see the land stay in the racing industry.

But if The Oaks property is not sold, they would have the option of retaining Savaglee to stand at stud there when his career ends.

I take it you are indicating that the 2,000 Guineas may well attract a stronger field than the Karaka and Slot this season, especially if Savaglee goes on to do well in Australia.

Same might happen with the 2yo Karaka if that impressive Te Akau 2yo goes on to do well in group races.