Strategies for punters: Mark Read

[Thomass]

4 minutes ago, curious said:

Yes. If I'm there to track that but I'm not routinely.

Maybe when someone convinces me that horses that shorten are more likely to win than those that drift.

Often a horse will shorten when it comes to the attention of punters that connections are serious about "going forward" this start

A few months back Sweenz told trackside that "Berg told me it was his intention to lead with blinkers on today"

This info is required to be notified in Australia but only those watching Trackside were privy

it duly went to the front and bolted in

[curious]

13 hours ago, The Centaur said:

I virus can mean low blood count. Look at it that way.

You mean a low WBC count? It can also be high with viral infections. That hasn't really answered my question though with respect to an injectable treatment for a virus. What treatment?

[Freda]

1 minute ago, curious said:

You mean a low WBC count? It can also be high with viral infections. That hasn't really answered my question though with respect to an injectable treatment for a virus. What treatment?

Hmm....I've been wondering too.  And, wrt blood count,  I've assumed the reference is to hemoglobin levels?  If not, what exactly?

[Thomass]

On 5/01/2025 at 7:26 PM, Chief Stipe said:

Value.  Nothing to do with 3yr olds wearing blinkers for the first time after Christmas aka @Thomass.

Missed this missive

Of course it was a general throw away line albeit with a great deal of substance

The 'Dan O'Sullivan' of NZ ratings based form analysis Steph Hunt often talks about 'profiles'

Part of his recent analysis was the 'profile' of 3 yo form and where it stands against inferior opposition, namely R 65's and lower

That's the basis of 'form analysis' and also life

Bart Cummings...you may have heard of him

"I keep my horses in the weakest of company and myself in the best of company. It's the best recipe for success that I know."

 

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, Thomass said:

"I keep my horses in the weakest of company and myself in the best of company. It's the best recipe for success that I know."

Oh that's the reason why you are on BOAY.

[Thomass]

14 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Oh that's the reason why you are on BOAY.

Too true, you win by default

The other places were full of psycho...phantic thom ass lickers where I refused to be used

the 'chief wallah' even reads personal/private messages there

How rude is that?

 

[Murray Fish]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

58 minutes ago, Thomass said:

"I keep my horses in the weakest of company and myself in the best of company. It's the best recipe for success that I know."

 

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

Oh that's the reason why you are on BOAY.

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.

Groucho Marx

also,

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.

Mark Twain

 

[The Centaur]

8 hours ago, curious said:

You mean a low WBC count? It can also be high with viral infections. That hasn't really answered my question though with respect to an injectable treatment for a virus. What treatment?

For god's sake Curious that would take up an encyclopedia. Every situation is different, every horse is different what might work one day may not work another and also on another horse. I'm sure  Freda would be able to fill you in but when the subject is treatments, injections etc. its a taboo subject as far as open forums are concerned for any trainer.

[curious]

36 minutes ago, The Centaur said:

its a taboo subject as far as open forums are concerned for any trainer.

Why would that be? trade secrets? Surely effective treatment of sick horses is something that should be shared? Especially if there's an effective injectable treatment for viruses. Simple question. You brought it up and I have no idea why it would take an encyclopedia to answer the question.

Edited yesterday at 02:02 AM by curious

[The Centaur]

12 minutes ago, curious said:

Why would that be? trade secrets? Surely effective treatment of sick horses is something that should be shared? Especially if there's an effective injectable treatment for viruses. Simple question. You brought it up and I have no idea why it would take an encyclopedia to answer the question.

1. People like Thomas straight away assume injection = something dodgy. Thats why the subject doesn't enter into discussions.

2. So you assume I must also be an authority on COVID19 and the various injections for that virus. Sorry its not that simple.

So the easiest way as I said is to look at it as a low blood count or disorder e.g. red versus white cells out of kilt. Any vet or trainer who doesn't know how to fix it shouldn't be in business.

[Thomass]

15 minutes ago, The Centaur said:

1. People like Thomas straight away assume injection = something dodgy. Thats why the subject doesn't enter into discussions.

2. So you assume I must also be an authority on COVID19 and the various injections for that virus. Sorry its not that simple.

So the easiest way as I said is to look at it as a low blood count or disorder e.g. red versus white cells out of kilt. Any vet or trainer who doesn't know how to fix it shouldn't be in business.

"Like Thomass"??  lol

It's the way you phrased it apart from anything else

Now the 'bloods' are normal and trainers "just know it's going to run well"??

Like any horse in a race with 'normal' bloods...but your "injected" horse has that something a bit better??

As i say give me a blinkered up horse who a top trainer like Larny has trialled with rather than a previously sick horse 'injected' up

[curious]

24 minutes ago, The Centaur said:

1. People like Thomas straight away assume injection = something dodgy. Thats why the subject doesn't enter into discussions.

2. So you assume I must also be an authority on COVID19 and the various injections for that virus. Sorry its not that simple.

So the easiest way as I said is to look at it as a low blood count or disorder e.g. red versus white cells out of kilt. Any vet or trainer who doesn't know how to fix it shouldn't be in business.

Well, I'll just say that I've looked after 100s of horses with viruses around the world, and never known a vet anywhere recommend an injectable treatment for a virus. As a trainer, I guess that means I shouldn't be in business.

[The Centaur]

13 minutes ago, curious said:

Well, I'll just say that I've looked after 100s of horses with viruses around the world, and never known a vet anywhere recommend an injectable treatment for a virus. As a trainer, I guess that means I shouldn't be in business.

Virus => Bad Blood =>Injection => happy horse  

[The Centaur]

Back to the #'s

#8 Cast out unqualified races. i.e, don't bet every race. Quite logical.

#9 Consistent betting strategy .... has to well researched.

 However don't agree with "back testing" what it usually means there will always be a successful strategy when you back test. Tests should be made going forward.

[curious]

I don't really see why you wouldn't back test when you have years of data to do that with. Forward or prospective testing takes years to get reliable results.

Edited yesterday at 05:49 AM by curious

[Rangatira]

On 6/01/2025 at 1:40 PM, Chief Stipe said:

That's an interesting point.  If you determined the value price of a horse and it suddenly is better than that price do you bet?  Or does the "market know better"?

You bet based on the price you valued the horse at.

[Wingman]

Most, 95% do not put values against the horse they back however they do subconsciously apply a value. Then there is the herd mentality whereby the drifter is the equivalent of the plague. I was at Randwick 15 or so years ago and in the ten minutes or so to the off (mid card) a 8 to one shot started drifting in price 'alarmingly' to 26 to one. It lead from the opening of the gates and was never headed. My attitude is if you have done your homework, am sure this is a good bet then you will be fine as long as you take a price you think is value. And there is the conundrum and the beauty of betting on thoroughbreds, we all have our opinions. 

[Thomass]

It certainly wouldn't be 95% of the more serious 'investors' ??

Australian markets are far more sophisticated than ours and it's hard to imagine a a horse defying that sort of drift these days.

Circumstances like sweating up, birdcage accidents requiring a vet check at the start and, as previously mentioned, going back from a wide draw as opposed to it's normal pattern of on pace can have these sort of impacts on the market

Recently Guerin remarked "you can no longer trust a drift on the NZ market"

Didn't hear the entire reason but I think I heard algorithm's mentioned

Would you still bet the 'value' drift if it was showing signs of behaving differently to normal i.e sweating up, change to it's normal racing pattern et el that you hadn't factored in before finding value?

[curious]

5 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Would you still bet the 'value' drift if it was showing signs of behaving differently to normal i.e sweating up, change to it's normal racing pattern et el that you hadn't factored in before finding value?

For me, most of the time, I'm not there to see that and the bet has long been on so I don't generally account for any visual observations like that.

[Wingman]

22 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Recently Guerin remarked "you can no longer trust a drift on the NZ market"

Didn't hear the entire reason but I think I heard algorithm's mentioned

I would like to know more about that if anyone can elaborate. I suspect there are now paid 'birdcage watchers' who report back to the bookies. That perhaps would in part explain late drifters  

[The Centaur]

20 hours ago, curious said:

I don't really see why you wouldn't back test when you have years of data to do that with. Forward or prospective testing takes years to get reliable results.

With back testing say 2 years you will always come up with a system/strategy that has been successful. If testing a particular strategy is showing big loss most people quickly forget about it. Just because something has been successful over the past 2 years does not mean it will successful over the next 2. Thats the problem most people don't realize.

Far better to have a sound strategy and do testing to make slight improvements.

[The Centaur]

2 hours ago, Wingman said:

I would like to know more about that if anyone can elaborate. I suspect there are now paid 'birdcage watchers' who report back to the bookies. That perhaps would in part explain late drifters  

I doubt the bookies would have birdcage watchers. However there does seem a considerable reaction by punters to the paddock. Go back 20 years and there was virtually no comment or importance placed on paddock tips. It even took the million dollar betting syndicates in Hong Kong quite sometime and testing before they accepted paddock information into their pricing.

[Wingman]

The other 'thing' is one has to know what is 'normal' for every horse, which really is only going to be known with the better performed horses that are seen regularly. Many a time good horses have scratchy preliminaries but gallop fluently once racing.

[The Centaur]

23 minutes ago, Wingman said:

The other 'thing' is one has to know what is 'normal' for every horse, which really is only going to be known with the better performed horses that are seen regularly. Many a time good horses have scratchy preliminaries but gallop fluently once racing.

I'm a fan of Jenny from Hong Kong but I just can't wrap my ahead around her "scratchy walkers" but she still places lot of importance on it. One of the things I find is the correlation of trainer to horse appearance in the ring. Lately I've seen similarities in the way Robbie Paterson and Bill Thurlow horses are presented. I note the long time association of the two so maybe somehow they are on the same page.

Edited 7 hours ago by The Centaur

[Chief Stipe]

If I'd seen Without A Fight walking before I put my bet on at odds to win the Caulfield Cup I would never have backed it.  Backed up on the Melbourne Cup too.