Win movers. Do you get on-board?

[Joe Kidd]

We don't like to think of ourselves as sheep when punting, but do you follow the money?

I'm a keen follower of form and place as much value of the stable / drivers form as I do the horses form. The form a stable has been one of my best punting guides over the years. As important as form and ability are, I've found betting movements to be very reliable to the point it seems as if you're betting on machines at times, not animals. Runners that get the blows can still win despite the betting drift which in Australia is sometimes described as "alarming" but they are most definitely the exception rather than the rule.

With the next race to go being the priority for many punters, you see a lot of $$ wagered late. This money is invariably very telling. If my wager has drifted from $3 to $4.50, I'm nervous. If the movement has gone the other way my confidence increases considerably. It's uncanny how reliable these movements are which invariably occur very late for differing reasons. The runner that gets the blows, invariably runs accordingly. The runner that the money came for can be wide doing more work than anything else etc etc but still manages to win. It's uncanny to the point it would have almost needed to fall over not to win. You have to wonder why it hadn't easily won it's previous races.  $$$ really does speak all languages. If I have a wager on and I see money has come for another runner, I will always take a saver on that runner which is uncannily almost always the runner that prevails.

With Australian race calls today, you will hear the term "heavily backed. It will almost always refer to the runner that won.

While most betting plunges are above board and understandable, there can aspect to at times that does not sit right. At the end of the days racing, I go back and watch the previous few performances of the runner involved in the betting plunge. I often find virtually nothing to indicate it was a next up winner, certainly nothing to justify the confident betting plunge. I have to ask if that horse had been set up for a punt. Obviously, if the form looks average, the bookies will offer very attractive odds next time up. Some trainers are masters at this but that is where the issue is. That runner will not have been trained / ridden or driven to win it's previous start(s). I don't have a lot of confidence in the authorities tasked with investigating such activity. 

[Happy Sunrise]

Today at the Mot.

Change is Good: Money was on but got nutted for reasons you outline in another thread. I take notice of early movements but don't usually jump on board.

Adam Patron: Didn't move initially but ended up at 7s, in from 12s, all due to the O'Connor talking him in - I never get scared of these movements created by presenters.

Givmewhatineed: 3.10 into 2.70. Without looking into this horse's form it seems everyone is already onto it. Especially off the UR over 2000m. I don't go near these types of movements.

Leading The Way: 51s to 13s all because of one betting syndicate. Leave me out of that type of movement too. The question is do the syndicate have inside knowledge or is it just a bet on their judgement?

Each to their own but you don't often hear plunge bets being mentioned in NZ harness by callers or presenters. Can't remember the last big bet that came in by a plunge either. Maybe I don't pay attention.

[Flagship uberalles]

You see a lot of those plunges come off in Australia........by the same token nothing worse than being on a drifting fav!

[Roman]

Just have to have a look at the Boys Get Paid page on fb to see where all the shorteners come from

[Newmarket]

I tend to ignore most plunges on nz harness. All it takes is someone drunk to offload, wamhoo its on!!

[Joe Kidd]

48 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said:

You see a lot of those plunges come off in Australia........by the same token nothing worse than being on a drifting fav!

100%

 

1 hour ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Today at the Mot.

Change is Good: Money was on but got nutted for reasons you outline in another thread. I take notice of early movements but don't usually jump on board.

Adam Patron: Didn't move initially but ended up at 7s, in from 12s, all due to the O'Connor talking him in - I never get scared of these movements created by presenters.

Givmewhatineed: 3.10 into 2.70. Without looking into this horse's form it seems everyone is already onto it. Especially off the UR over 2000m. I don't go near these types of movements.

Leading The Way: 51s to 13s all because of one betting syndicate. Leave me out of that type of movement too. The question is do the syndicate have inside knowledge or is it just a bet on their judgement?

Each to their own but you don't often hear plunge bets being mentioned in NZ harness by callers or presenters. Can't remember the last big bet that came in by a plunge either. Maybe I don't pay attention.

 

All we can do is rely on what has been our own experience with what we witness. Win movers are so reliable to my eye that they have become a critically important betting tool. To be honest, I wish that wasn't the reality. I can watch hundreds of race replays, compare all the form and ability of horse, trainer, driver / rider and find the winner only to have that all go out the window by very late betting movements. It can be very frustrating especially if it's too late for whatever reason to unload on a saver.

 

Where ever I've punted around the world the one fact that always remains a constant is that money speaks all languages. 

 

There is no single set in stone way of interpreting that money in relation to wagering. Some connections prefer to get their investments on early. They may drop the price from $20 to say $6. Punters notice this and invariably follow like sheep. As the race gets nearer to start time the pools increase and early wagers can become diluted. Punter see that $6 drift to say $10 and from appearances sake, it appears the horse got the blows but that is not the case at all.

 

You can have a small pool on a chook raffle type race a relatively small bet can send that pool into meltdown. That bet could mean nothing so is best ignored.

 

The best win movers in my experience are in fields with decent pools and when the moving happens in the last 10 minutes before race start. If the betting is relatively steady and then one starts to come in sharply, that is invariably a great indicator. If on the other hand no money comes for another leading contender, that is also usually an excellent guide. Those two situations often work together. Connections of the horse being punted have expressed their confidence while the connections of the horse getting the blows have likely expressed their reservations etc. It's uncanny just how reliable these numbers are.

 

People bet late for any number of reasons. They may just like having as much time as possible to see the whole picture. Prelims, stable and driver form and that of rivals etc etc. Some of the big punters I've crossed paths with bet late very deliberately simply to avoid attracting the sheep.

 

Reading win movers can be almost an art form. Without blowing my own trumpet I feel I''m ok at it.

 

Most important factors will always be ability and form of the horse but I will not touch a horse EVER if the stable / driver / rider are not in form.

 

Predicting patters is helpful. Say a stable have three runners engaged on the day. The one you're really interested in starts late in the day. If the earlier runners are expected to perform but don't, I will pass completely on my intended wager later in the day. If the earlier runners are rough but go well then get onboard bigger and better later. If they run a quinella early on my confidence rises considerably for my intended wager later in the day.

 

I was a professional punter for just over three years on both sides of the ditch but especially in Australia. There are syndicates operating that I watched in action. Their activities can be eye opening to say the least. In my experience, Speaking in general terms, Australian punters are onto it more than Kiwi punters. 

 

Punting can be as easy as falling off a log. It can also do your head in. I gave up a modestly successful business to take my punting full time but eventually returned to a more conventional and reliable method of earning. Needs must and I saw more than enough to satisfy myself the game can be as bent as a dogs hind leg. Good luck with whatever method you choose to use. Must be fun. Coincidentally, the more often you win, the more fun you have

[the galah]

From your experience win movers are obviously a factor in predicting correctly the eventual outcome. I accept they are a factor,as obviously you have observed that.

Personally I only bet on nz harness,and win movers or betting plunges with the bookies  or on the tote have no relevance to me. I prefer to see my selections drift in their odds,simply because it means I get more back if  I get a collect.  

I trust my judgment.

I get what you say about in form stables on the day, and I sometimes do factor  that into the amount I wager.  

There are a couple of high profile drivers that I will reduce the amount I bet ,however it is only very rarely I think they were not trying. I simply believe some drivers just make poor decisions consistently because they can't judge pace or form that well. You mentioned one of the drivers in another thread. Horses run for them but tactically they are a bit average.  On the other hand some drivers always seem to do the right thing in every race.

 

[Furlong]

Over the last few years I have not bet on the gallops because there didn't seem to be any rhyme nor reason as to why so many horses with good form etc didn't come in. False info on track conditions also didn't help. However recently I have been watching the win movers and particularly any change close to start time, and have had quite a good run of luck especially place betting wise. There is less chances in the harness but they are there just the same from time to time. It is still called gambling and losses will always appear. Thanks for your posts Joe Kidd, I enjoyed reading them.