The Mandalorian - Serious improvement?

[Brodie]

The question needs to be asked about the improvement of The Mandalorian!

The money came for The Mandalorian first up for Michael House yesterday at Oamaru.

The Mandalorian had 42 starts for Brent Weaver and to be fair was a very poor performing horse and showed very little ability, hardly worth having in work!

The Stipes asked the question yesterday wishy washy and accepted that it was due to a change of training routine, that enabled this poor performer to winning first up in short time from a previous trainer.

Yes we know a change if trainer can improve a horse, but why not kindly explain to the betting public what this so called change of training routine is?

Just a cop out answer that needs a proper answer!

Either Michael House is an absolute genius or Brent Weaver is a hopeless trainer!!

The betting public need to be better informed of how a horse goes from useless to a winner in short time, as we have a Racing Integrity Unit don’t we?

[Gammalite]

2 hours ago, Brodie said:

Yes we know a change if trainer can improve a horse, but why not kindly explain to the betting public what this so called change of training routine is?

Just a cop out answer that needs a proper answer!

Either Michael House is an absolute genius or Brent Weaver is a hopeless trainer!!

well it doesn't really Brodster.

In this case the horse did have a form improvement like you said but nothing serious.  times ran was not serious at all.

The Mandorian won in a slow 2.5 mile rate with a last half of 58 seconds. slower than most maidens. 

A recent thread on here I did showed a horse Improving 40m (about 4 seconds ) in a week. But you can still have to guess how the trainer did it. Getting the horse Bold Medley Jujon  off a leading trainer in Grant Dixon.

Of course JASON GRIMSON was improving old crocks , many times the past few years. Boncel Benjamin and I Cast no Shadow won the Interdominion Grand Final even ?? how ? 

Well there is No way a Trainer has to TELL anyone  ( Even Stewards or Public )  how he trains and treats his horses.

There is NO COP OUT by NOT devulging how you Prepare your horses ??👍

No Trainer tells others Exactly what they do or they would lose their edge. I could tell you how Barry Purdon trains, or how Jimmy won the Interdominion with Lightning Blue or how Vinnie Knight won race after race but we just Don't tell mate.  these are the secrets that stay with each Stable . even as I travelled from stable to stable I didn't reveal anything from previous establishments as that is a SERIOUS BREAK in Confidential and Personal stuff. unique to each stable. and you would lose the participants respect very quickly indeed. 

example : Cullen shifting from Allstars to Telfers was never Gunna work , as would be impossible for him to devulge the Allstars secret to Telfer. so they didn't need him and he departed again lol 🤣🤭

What did you want to know ?

what The Mandolonian had for breakfast ? and how fast Wilson worked it during the week ??  

it didn't do much improving mate really mate . send it to Grimson 's 😁 if you want a fast Win. 

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Gammalite said:

well it doesn't really Brodster.

In this case the horse did have a form improvement like you said but nothing serious.  times ran was not serious at all.

The Mandorian won in a slow 2.5 mile rate with a last half of 58 seconds. slower than most maidens. 

A recent thread on here I did showed a horse Improving 40m (about 4 seconds ) in a week. But you can still have to guess how the trainer did it. Getting the horse Bold Medley Jujon  off a leading trainer in Grant Dixon.

Of course JASON GRIMSON was improving old crocks , many times the past few years. Boncel Benjamin and I Cast no Shadow won the Interdominion Grand Final even ?? how ? 

Well there is No way a Trainer has to TELL anyone  ( Even Stewards or Public )  how he trains and treats his horses.

There is NO COP OUT by NOT devulging how you Prepare your horses ??👍

No Trainer tells others Exactly what they do or they would lose their edge. I could tell you how Barry Purdon trains, or how Jimmy won the Interdominion with Lightning Blue or how Vinnie Knight won race after race but we just Don't tell mate.  these are the secrets that stay with each Stable . even as I travelled from stable to stable I didn't reveal anything from previous establishments as that is a SERIOUS BREAK in Confidential and Personal stuff. unique to each stable. and you would lose the participants respect very quickly indeed. 

example : Cullen shifting from Allstars to Telfers was never Gunna work , as would be impossible for him to devulge the Allstars secret to Telfer. so they didn't need him and he departed again lol 🤣🤭

What did you want to know ?

what The Mandolonian had for breakfast ? and how fast Wilson worked it during the week ??  

it didn't do much improving mate really mate . send it to Grimson 's 😁 if you want a fast Win. 

Gamma, The Mandalorian has over 40 starts for Weaver and in almost every one was not competitive enough to place.

One start for Michael House and the money comes on and it wins.

You say it didnt improve much, so you are saying the others in the race that would always best it home, had a bad day at the office?

Think it is not worth asking the question by the Stipes, if they are always going to accept the answer as being change of training routine!

Not saying anything untoward here, just saying that what was Brent Weaver doing to have this horse going so nil for so long??!

 

 

[Gammalite]

27 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Think it is not worth asking the question by the Stipes, if they are always going to accept the answer as being change of training routine!

Not saying anything untoward here, just saying that what was Brent Weaver doing to have this horse going so nil for so long??!

probably was the right answer Brodie.  the horse undoubtedly had a change of training routine. 

What else can they say?? . The horse had good drivers before in Orange and that . so the driver wasn't the difference.

The horse placed 4th in 1.57 MR last january as it's absolute best run ever. not that quick , but that's way faster than Oamaru win?.

and finally YOU Know how respected the HOUSE team are already ?? at taking out of form horses to Manawatu for other owners and trainers , and WINNING too. so it's nothing out of the Blue that they have achieved. 

Weaver is no -one i've heard of so probably just a country class trainer , where-as HOUSE team can race at Metro city level at times. They are only moderate performers in town . but don't have the 'Secrets' of Allstars, Dunns and Cullen etc 🤣😂  Wilson needed to work elsewhere to learn some tricks of the trade. (like Crystal and Harrison Orange do) 

[the galah]

i  agree with gamm on this one.

i do accept what brodie has said, in that yesterday there was an improvement in the performance of The mandelorian, on past efforts,but i don't think it was as significant as suggested.

i have my own way of doing the form  and i had The mandelorian rated to run 7th of the 13 starters ,based on its form from the weaver stable.

I had thought logan rock had the superior form for that race ,but it underperformed a tad and  you could also tell with 600m to run that r close,logan rocks driver, had simply left his run far too late, as the race had developed into a sprint home. Horses never ever come from too far back on a sprint home on a fast grass track.They just never do.

so the race evolved in a way where you had to be in the first 4 turning in to be a chance and the mandelorian had received the ideal 1/1 sit early and was still in that ideal position when the sprint went on, due to the other drivers not making moves.

so what i'm saying is the way the race played out was in the mandelorains favour.

i've actually followed the manderlorain a bit and i have formed the opinion he's not the toughest mentally and doesn't have the greatest self belief in his own ablity to win. And you get that from horses who race a lot and only win occassionally or never quite do.

I think that was again evident yesterday,it was like he went up to win the race and was going well enough to win by half a length,but he simply took longer to get to the front because the horse was as surprised as anyone that he may have been going to win and was having a think instead of being totally focussed on winning. W house just sort of kidded to him,sort of as if to say to him,go on son,you can do it,without ever resorting to much whip use.

as to the m house stable improving horses. Yes they do improve horses and it doesn't take long before they can do that.The amount they improve their horses can be around 5 lengths in my opinion.

My theory on how they do that is they work them a bit harder and a bit differently ,where they vary their work to switch them on a bit more when they first get them.I also think sometimes they get the vet to treat their horses in a way that helps any slight soreness issues or something,or they do it themselves. Doesn't m house have shares in a vet clinic,so wouldn't he be able to have his  horses treated much cheaper than other trainers.I'm only guessing,but thats my informed guess..

But i'm realistic enough to realise people can see they improve horses and will wonder how they do it.It thinks its not over complicated,they've just worked out what works for them.I don't think they've ever tried to gain any unfair advantage the way one or two stables used to in the past.I would be nice if there were more stables like the houses..  The house horses have never had the run forever look and they get tired when they should if they have a hard run.

so i don't think the mandelorians run was any big deal myself.

I think the bookies shouldn't have had the mandelorian at 41's given the overall form of the horses in that race and the fact it was having its first start from the house barn.Really it should have opened around $20.

Star on the rocks was an amazing opening price of $41. it was backed into $12. Personally i wasn't betting yesterday,but was just amazed at the price the bookeis  opened that horse,given its recent form. ITs shown its very fast but seems to struggle a bit getting around tracks with tighter bends.But to open at $41 was an early christmas gift to the punters who got on as its price tumbled in .

Edited 17 hours ago by the galah

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Gammalite said:

probably was the right answer Brodie.  the horse undoubtedly had a change of training routine. 

What else can they say?? . The horse had good drivers before in Orange and that . so the driver wasn't the difference.

The horse placed 4th in 1.57 MR last january as it's absolute best run ever. not that quick , but that's way faster than Oamaru win?.

and finally YOU Know how respected the HOUSE team are already ?? at taking out of form horses to Manawatu for other owners and trainers , and WINNING too. so it's nothing out of the Blue that they have achieved. 

Weaver is no -one i've heard of so probably just a country class trainer , where-as HOUSE team can race at Metro city level at times. They are only moderate performers in town . but don't have the 'Secrets' of Allstars, Dunns and Cullen etc 🤣😂  Wilson needed to work elsewhere to learn some tricks of the trade. (like Crystal and Harrison Orange do) 

Brent Weaver has been around for decades, Gamma.

Used to live up in Marlborough and campaigned horses in Wellington and Palmerston North, and is a driver as well.

Has had some pretty reasonable horses and not an inexperienced trainer.

Someone knew the horse was improved due to the shortening but on previous form you just couldnt have it, although grass tracks are a leveller!

[Brodie]

2 minutes ago, the galah said:

i  agree with gamm on this one.

i do accept what brodie has said, in that yesterday there was an improvement in the performance of The mandelorian, on past efforts,but i don't think it was as significant as suggested.

i have my own way of doing the form  and i had The mandelorian rated to run 7th of the 13 starters ,based on its form from the weaver stable.

I had thought logan rock had the superior form for that race ,but it uderperformed a tad and you could also  you could tell with 600m to run that r close,logan rocks driver, had simply left his run far too late, as the race had developed into a sprint home. Horses never ever come from too far back on a sprint home on a fast grass track.They just never do.

so the race evolved in a way where you had to be in the first 4 turning in to be a chance and the mandelorian had received the ideal 1/1 sit early and was still in that ideal position when the sprint went on, due to the other drivers not making moves.

so what i'm saying is the way the race played out was in the mandelorains favour.

i've actually followed the manderlorain a bit and i have formed the opinion he's not the toughest mentally and doesn't have the greatest self belief in his own ablity to win. And you get that from horses who race a lot and only win occassionally or never quite do.

I think that was again evident yesterday,it was like he went up to win the race and was going well enough to win by half a length,but he simply took longer to get to the front because the horse was as surprised as anyone that he may have been going to win and was having a think instead of being totally focussed on winning. W house just sort of kidded to him,sort of as if to say to him,go on son,you can do it,without ever resorting to much whip use.

as to the m house stable improving horses. Yes they do improve horses and it doesn't take long before they can do that.The amount they improve their horses can be around 5 lengths in my opinion.

My theory on how they do that is they work them a bit harder and a bit differently ,where they vary their work to switch them on a bit more when they first get them.I also think sometimes they get the vet to treat their horses in a way that helps any slight soreness issues or something,or they do it themselves. Doesn't m house have shares in a vet clinic,so wouldn't he be able to have his  horses treated much cheaper than other trainers.I'm only guessing,but thats my informed guess..

But i'm realistic enough to realise people can see they improve horses and will wonder how they do it.It thinks its not over complicated,they've just worked out what works for them.I don't think they've ever tried to gain any unfair advantage the way one or two stables used to in the past.I would be nice if there were more stables like the houses..  The house horses have never had the run forever look and they get tired when they should if they have a hard run.

so i don't think the mandelorians run was any big deal myself.

I think the bookies shouldn't have had the mandelorian at 41's given the overall form of the horses in that race and the fact it was having its first start from the house barn.Really it should have opened around $20.

Star on the rocks was an amazing opening price of $41. it was bhacked into $12. Personally i wasn't betting yesterday,but was just amazes that the bookeis got open that horse,given its recent form. ITs shown its very fast but seems to struggle a bit getting around tracks with tighter bends.But to open at $41 was an early christmas gift to the punters who got on as its price tumbled in .

Michael House’s wife I believe is a Vet?

Still maintain it was a big form reversal from what it had shoen in 42 previous start's snd the Bookies agreed!

Grass tracks wouldve helped and going to be interesting go see if it can win again?

[Newmarket]

3 hours ago, Brodie said:

Michael House’s wife I believe is a Vet?

Still maintain it was a big form reversal from what it had shoen in 42 previous start's snd the Bookies agreed!

Grass tracks wouldve helped and going to be interesting go see if it can win again?

I reckon she is a good Vet🫣. 
Plenty of form reversals with this trainer, from battling nags. I suppose as a punter, we all are wary of any stable change, especially those that go to the beach and start fav next start…. for myself, i stay well clear of those having first start at another stable, usually saved me 💰 

[the galah]

 

3 hours ago, Brodie said:

Brent Weaver has been around for decades, Gamma.

Used to live up in Marlborough and campaigned horses in Wellington and Palmerston North, and is a driver as well.

Has had some pretty reasonable horses and not an inexperienced trainer.

Someone knew the horse was improved due to the shortening but on previous form you just couldnt have it, although grass tracks are a leveller!

i agree that weavers horses have always gone ok and are consistent enough.No champs,but good enough to keep going and earn a few dollars and have a bit of fun type horses.Hes had the odd nice horse,i remember ultimate desire was a nice mare for him not that many years ago.

i just had a look and hes trained 121 winners so he knows what hes doing.

your right about grass tracks being a levelller,i think part of that is getting onto the inside and handy seems to help some horses more on grass.

3 hours ago, Brodie said:

Still maintain it was a big form reversal from what it had shoen in 42 previous start's snd the Bookies agreed!

Grass tracks wouldve helped and going to be interesting go see if it can win again?

it was an improvement in form,no doubt about it,and its natural to be curious about what house had done with the horse in the couple of weeks he had it.

It should be able to win again once it gets to run in similar fields.Yesterdays race wasn't an over strong form race  and jumping 5 rating points means it will be in tougher races in the short term. 

Edited 14 hours ago by the galah

[Nowornever]

13 hours ago, Brodie said:

The money came for The Mandalorian first up for Michael House yesterday at Oamaru.

Opened way over the odds. If the horse was racing at Manawatu it would have been sub $5.00.

Bookies simply got it wrong like they do a lot of the time these days.  Take those opportunities while you can. A few of the Aussie bookmakers are using AI now for their Aussie harness opening prices, I got told by someone working at one of the main ones.  Not long before it happens here. They open them at any old price but don't let anyone on for any big amounts until there is liquidity in the pools and by that time the market has sorted it self into something close to true odds. Yes there will be overs on many runners early but the catch is you cant get much on at those prices. I am picking 3-6 months before AI pricing is introduced here.

[the galah]

1 hour ago, Nowornever said:

Opened way over the odds. If the horse was racing at Manawatu it would have been sub $5.00.

Bookies simply got it wrong like they do a lot of the time these days.  Take those opportunities while you can. A few of the Aussie bookmakers are using AI now for their Aussie harness opening prices, I got told by someone working at one of the main ones.  Not long before it happens here. They open them at any old price but don't let anyone on for any big amounts until there is liquidity in the pools and by that time the market has sorted it self into something close to true odds. Yes there will be overs on many runners early but the catch is you cant get much on at those prices. I am picking 3-6 months before AI pricing is introduced here.

i'd never heard of the ai thing doing the pricing,but i've just googled what you said and am surprised just how common it already is becomming around the world and how common it is for people to use ai programmes to do their betting..

i suppose its a bit like what the tab already does with its algorythms on certain peoples accounts.They have for a few years now been immediately reducing the odds of any runner that receives support from punters who are identified as winning punters.i can imagine it wouldn't be hard for the tab to identify all the winning punters,have all the betting information from those peoples accounts input into  some sort of programme and the odds  be set accordingly from there.

Really thats why they have tried to push everyone into betting over the internet,so as to identify the winning punters ,so the tab can reduce the amounts that they will potentially lose.

its a bit like all those punters who have computer programmes which trigger betting for them on the win movers.

thats been around for some time. People that don't follow racing,but are computer smart,making their living out of having a  computer programme which analyses win movers and how the computer would make the decisions of when to bet. Theres was lots of people who use betfair that seem to be doing that and i'm sure it would be happening in australasia,especially australia.

i also had a theory that the best way to make money was simply identify who the winning punters are,hack into their accounts and have a computer programme replicate their betting. SImple as,your in the money.

Actually when i was making money not that many years ago i actually complained to the tab that i believed that was what someone was doing. There was a consistent pattern of every horse i backed dropping in price  and i had concluded it had to be that.I actually complained to the tab and asked them to investigate whether anyone else was accessing my account other than me,but they just seemed to think i was paranoid,but thats  i believed..

If i was smart in how to hack and a little dishonest,thats what i would do.Simple as.. 

anyways,back to the ai thing. I can imagine what nowornever says about having an advantage of betting as soon as the markets come out,but of course not many can be bothered to do that,i never ould be bothered when i used to bet, even though i knew that was a way of increasing profit.I suppose those that do will make a bit of more money and those who have the same selections ,but bet after the prices have dropped will win a bit less.

thats why the whales are such dumb bets,Of course people are going to say,well he turns a profit,because he would based on getting on early,but because he ruins the odds with his early bets,those that follow are never going to make much.Then again,maybe they are happy almost breaking even.

so it sounds like its not going to be ai that will make it harder for punters to make money from racing,its the fact ai will use the information they gain from winning punters that will give ai the winning edge.

Edited 8 hours ago by the galah