Jan turnover numbers

[curious]

[Shab]

Geoblocking really starting to kick in now. We can stop worrying about Entain guarantees running out soon.

[Murray Fish]

Sport + 53% 

Gallops + 15%

[hesi]

If you pro rata compare with Nov/Dec figs

Thoroughbred NZ is up about 7 mil

Total racing NZ and Overseas is down about 17 mil

Sport is unchanged

 

[Chief Stipe]

31 minutes ago, hesi said:

If you pro rata compare with Nov/Dec figs

Thoroughbred NZ is up about 7 mil

Total racing NZ and Overseas is down about 17 mil

Sport is unchanged

 

Sorry I don't get your calculations.  

[hesi]

The Nov/Dec figs are 2 months, so halve then do a direct comparison with Jan figs

[Chief Stipe]

7 hours ago, hesi said:

The Nov/Dec figs are 2 months, so halve then do a direct comparison with Jan figs

That method isn't a direct comparison.  You can only compare January 26 with January 25.  In that comparison NZ Racing turnover is up $10m.  We don't have a comparison of the overseas component.

If Sports is up 53% (not sure if it is 5.3%) then it is a very good result all round.  

[hesi]

8 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

That method isn't a direct comparison.  You can only compare January 26 with January 25.  In that comparison NZ Racing turnover is up $10m.  We don't have a comparison of the overseas component.

If Sports is up 53% (not sure if it is 5.3%) then it is a very good result all round.  

No, but it is a more recent indication of how things are trending.

The NZ and Overseas figure down 17 mil from Nov/Dec is a blip that can be accounted for by the Melbourne Cup

[curious]

Sports increase looks pretty stable. It has been running about + 50% YOY since last August.

Edited 9 hours ago by curious

[Chief Stipe]

20 minutes ago, hesi said:

No, but it is a more recent indication of how things are trending.

The NZ and Overseas figure down 17 mil from Nov/Dec is a blip that can be accounted for by the Melbourne Cup

How can it be a "blip" when it is UP not down.  Using your logic January 2025 was DOWN on Nov/Dec 2025.  Not every month is the same!  Your comparison is about as useful as comparing January with August!

[Chief Stipe]

8 minutes ago, curious said:

Sports increase looks pretty stable. It has been running about + 50% YOY since last August.

With no evidence that Sport has scavenged anything from Racing.

[Murray Fish]

9 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

f Sports is up 53% (not sure if it is 5.3%) then it is a very good result all round.  

blowing the photo up,  I could not see a DOT between the 5 and 3

 

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Murray Fish said:

blowing the photo up,  I could not see a DOT between the 5 and 3

 

Geez "blowing things up" - Trump needs you!

[Murray Fish]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

Geez "blowing things up" - Trump needs you!

i did it too it was Large, very large indeed... HUGE even!

 

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, Murray Fish said:

i did it too it was Large, very large indeed... HUGE even!

 

Well didn't take 4 weeks or maybe 5 or whatever is needed.

[the galah]

so many factors are at play when it comes to how much the nz racing industry can benefit from sports betting increases.

like for every $ spent on sports betting,what % of profit actually will end up going to racing.

Entain must have a good idea by now,but no one seems to be saying what it is.

its the same with horse racing,just because turnover goes up ,doesn't mean profits are going up.If we only had tote betting yes it would be simple,but because so much turnover relates to fixed odds betting,we need to know what % profit that aspect is returning the industry.

For example,if sports betting goes up 50%,then entain take their cut,the sports organisations take their cut,tax rates,yield rates,etc are  at play.

in other words a 50% increase in sports turnover probably only returns the racing industry  a single digit increase on previouis years amounts,in profit to be distributed to horse racing.I don't know for sure,no one is saying,but i do know for sure people should not get too excited and think a 50% sports turnover increase means a really big windfall for the industry,because we don't have enough information to say that.Its got to be a positive thing,but just how big it really is,who knows.

And if say the harness racing code,is spending beyond their means,well they most likely are going to struggle even with a bit of help from sports betting returns.I mean,the racing codes have been spending based on what?How could they possibly know for sure how much they are likely to get.They had to have been guessing until a year of the geo blocking has played out..

then with sports betting you have the variable that played out in the usa a couple of years ago relating to the nfl. The betting agencies all took big hits to their profits because the nfl had a run of favorites win. I mean ,the oppposite could happen of course,but again looking at something and saying 53 increase,its too vague to get too excited.

I was reading yesterday how entain shares have fallen 25% this year and that was down close to half on itspeak price in the last year.i think they are publishing their yearly results soon,but they have revised their profits down for this year and for next year.Apparently the prediction markets are taking off in some countries which is effecting betting on the likes of sports. E.g.in the USA you can bet on the likes of whether zelensky will wear a suit to the white house. Because that type of betting is more profitable % for the betting agencies who focus on it,they are able to offer better odds than you may get on the likes of sports betting. Of course what they can bet on in the usa is different from here or the uk.

But does entains global profit have any effect on nz racing.Probably not,but then again it may do down the track,who really knows.

Edited 3 hours ago by the galah

[curious]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

But does entains global profit have any effect on nz racing.Probably not,but then again it may do down the track,who really knows.

No. Only the NZTAB revenue does.

[Shab]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

For example,if sports betting goes up 50%,then entain take their cut,the sports organisations take their cut,tax rates,yield rates,etc are  at play

What tax?

[Shab]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

Apparently the prediction markets are taking off in some countries which is effecting betting on the likes of sports. E.g.in the USA you can bet on the likes of whether zelensky will wear a suit to the white house.

The government has moved to cut us off from that line of income

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/what-you-need-to-know/587993/why-betting-on-top-online-prediction-markets-is-now-illegal-in-new-zealand

[Chief Stipe]

7 minutes ago, curious said:

No. Only the NZTAB revenue does.

That can't be correct in the transition phase where the ENTAIN shareholders are funding the purchase and I note the rather large writedown of the NZ Businesses Value. 

[curious]

28 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

That can't be correct in the transition phase where the ENTAIN shareholders are funding the purchase and I note the rather large writedown of the NZ Businesses Value. 

That's true that the shareholders are funding the purchase costs but from the end of the guarantee period, it will only be the NZ business contributing to racing.

[Chief Stipe]

50 minutes ago, the galah said:

And if say the harness racing code,is spending beyond their means,well they most likely are going to struggle even with a bit of help from sports betting returns.I mean,the racing codes have been spending based on what?How could they possibly know for sure how much they are likely to get.They had to have been guessing until a year of the geo blocking has played out..

I agree both remaining codes are spending beyond their means - thanks to the ENTAIN shareholders.  However old habits die hard and the industry as a whole has been doing that for decades and previously have been bailed out by the taxpayer.

The industry is gambling on ENTAIN getting the NZ operation on a better footing that it was before.  The signs are that it has at considerable cost to ENTAIN but not enough to maintiain the current level of funding - yet.  My assessment is that the returns from the NZTAB are greater than when it was run entirely by TABNZ.

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, curious said:

That's true that the shareholders are funding the purchase costs but from the end of the guarantee period, it will only be the NZ business contributing to racing.

Which is basically what I said.

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, the galah said:

I was reading yesterday how entain shares have fallen 25% this year and that was down close to half on itspeak price in the last year.i think they are publishing their yearly results soon,but they have revised their profits down for this year and for next year.

The analysts still have a BUY notice on the stock.  I know at least one BOAY member who bought in at the last low and sold on the last high.  

The biggest threat to ENTAIN and indeed the whole wagering industry is Government seeking a return in the form of taxation.  I imagine  both Australia (Federal and State) and the NZ Government are looking to get a positive return from racing rather than having to subsidise it continually.

 

[the galah]

1 hour ago, curious said:

No. Only the NZTAB revenue does.

it depends what we are discussing.

i was thinking along the lines of what we saw when entain reduced expenditure on certain things last year.

like any business,if profits aren't as high as they want globally or say in australasia,they  look at ways of cutting costs.

That played out last year in nz with some job losses in areas that service the industry for entain and for example, the tab racing club which was a promotional tool for entain,was stopped and that 2.5m annual spend on the industry disappeared.

thats the type of thing i'm thinking of.