Thomass Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Sensational chase down by TAS on Saturday...but who wins in a hth?? Not much doubt by the looks Winx's 2018 Turnbull Stakes win off a slow tempo was electric (Image: Racing Photos) Winx vs The Autumn Sun, who wins? Nic Ashman@Nic_Ashman 10 March, 2019 , ( Note: The IVR number you see is essentially a measurement in lengths. For example: Winx might return an IVR figure of +11.5 for winning the Cox Plate. This means Winx ran 11.5 lengths above benchmark standard. The purpose of IVR figures is to line up performances across different tracks at different points in time. In this example Winx's +11.5 rating is an overall figure. For more than 20 years, Daily Sectionals has applied various algorithms to determine the correct adjustments required between tracks given each course plays differently. Saturday’s Group 1 Randwick Guineas provided one of the highlights of the 2018/19 racing season. The Autumn Sun chalked up his fourth Group 1 in just eight starts leaving the racing public to question: after four years and a winning streak that now sits at 31, have we finally found a horse that can beat Winx? The knockers will say Autumn Sun failed to break 11 seconds for any 200-metre split in his Randwick Guineas victory. He wore down a tough filly in Fundamentalist, who paddled to the line in 12.48s for her final 200m, which ranked 74th on a day where 80 horses raced. But the response from his fans will draw attention to what unfolded seven days earlier over at exactly the same track and distance. Winx only broke 11 seconds for one split (600m-400m) wearing down a tiring Happy Clapper in the Chipping Norton Stakes. The public want the pair of Waller-trained gallopers to clash in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill on March 23. Let’s analyse the historical sectional data of each horse to ascertain the likely outcome. FAST PACE: When the pace is on, Winx has displayed the ability to run +16.3 lengths above the IVR benchmark standard when winning the 2015 Cox Plate. This is her peak IVR figure. Let’s join most people and subscribe to the theory the Moonee Valley track was hot on Cox Plate day in 2015 and take this peak figure out of the equation. The great mare has multiple performances in the +12 range and last start ran +10.1 in the Chipping Norton Stakes. WATCH: Winx's win in the 2015 Cox Plate The Autumn Sun’s best figure off a hot tempo is +7.9 in last year’s Golden Rose. These numbers suggest Winx comfortably has somewhere between two and four lengths on the colt off a fast tempo. SLOW PACE: Now let’s assess what would happen if they clashed in a sit and sprint race. The Autumn Sun hasn’t broken 11 seconds for any of his closing sectionals since his debut on April 25, 2018. Here’s Winx’s last 600m sectional breakdown for the Turnbull Stakes in 2018 – 10.64 seconds, 10.6 seconds and 10.88 seconds. The Autumn Sun’s fastest sectional ever is 10.94 seconds – let’s give him a chance in this exercise and say he could hold that for three consecutive 200m sections even though he’s never done that. That would give him an overall 600m time of 32.82 seconds, clearly inferior to Winx’s 32.12 seconds in the Turnbull Stakes. WATCH: Winx's 2018 Turnbull Stakes win This means in a sit and sprint race from the 600m, and assuming they’re alongside each other, Winx has 4.2 lengths up her sleeve over The Autumn Sun. And that’s assuming he can hold the fastest 200m split he’s ever ran for three consecutive sections. It’s also worth noting Winx’s 32.12 seconds was at the end of 2000m whereas The Autumn Sun’s 10.94 split was in a 1200m race. WATCH: The Autumn Sun wins the 2018 Caulfield Guineas CONCLUSION: FAST TEMPO – Winx has between two and four lengths on The Autumn Sun. SLOW TEMPO – Winx has at least four lengths on The Autumn Sun MOST RECENT RUN: The Autumn Sun returned an IVR of +6.1, Winx +10.1. PEAK IVR: Winx +16.3, The Autumn Sun +7.9 NOTES: Both horses settle off pace and their overall figures are dictated to by lead speed. Winx has been in faster run races, therefore has been afforded a better opportunity to run faster overall times in relation to benchmark figures. However, if we look at races where the lead speed is similar for both horses, Winx still has at least two lengths, and in most cases three lengths plus, on The Autumn Sun. On sectional times, The Autumn Sun profiles more as a middle-distance horse than a miler. There is an argument to say his IVR could elevate if he stepped up to 2000m, a distance where Winx’s optimum figures appear. To compete with Winx at 2000m, The Autumn Sun would have to elevate between 4-5 lengths on his current best figure over the shorter trips. Over 1500m, there is no evidence The Autumn Sun could beat Winx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 Nic Ashman is one of the worst tipsters you’ll ever come across He used to be on form line with Greg Radley and Ron Dufficy ..he talks it definitely doesn’t walk it now on Racing.com in Melbourne. Chris Waller said the Autumn Sun is still immature which casts huge doubts on a campaign to Royal Ascot I listened to Kieran McEvoy on radio Sunday he said 1600 is short of TAS best The Queen Elizabeth Winx,s last ever start, this would be the only possible clash, but this will be avoided as Messara is not keen on clashing with the champ, had Winx retired this would have been the ideal race for TAS The Waller camp and owners are very mindful now of Winx finishing unbeaten so this clash will not eventuate You know the public want it!! Winx could easily win a 5th Cox Plate but you can bet Chris Waller has had the 2019 Cox Plate in the back of his mind since last year with another star from his stable I wonder who that could be????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 (edited) Winx isn't unbeaten. P.S. - TAS doesn't stand a chance against Winx. The Autumn Sun only narrowly defeated a moderate filly on Saturday. Edited March 11, 2019 by SLB2.0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted March 11, 2019 Author Share Posted March 11, 2019 Oh Ashman...ya gotta love this... "yea that's what I thought" haha of course https://mobile.twitter.com/GetOn78/status/1098689010233307136 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 3 hours ago, SLB2.0 said: Winx isn't unbeaten. P.S. - TAS doesn't stand a chance against Winx. The Autumn Sun only narrowly defeated a moderate filly on Saturday. No Winx got beat a few times earlier in her career I probably should have said they want to finish with her winning run intact BTW Fundamentalist is far from moderate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 She's a two-win filly..... We're talking about some of the best horses in the world here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Thomass said: Oh Ashman...ya gotta love this... "yea that's what I thought" haha of course https://mobile.twitter.com/GetOn78/status/1098689010233307136 Jesus, he's not too bright nic Ashman, might pop round and fix his leaky roof! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 2 hours ago, SLB2.0 said: She's a two-win filly..... We're talking about some of the best horses in the world here... She is only 3yo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Well I think TAS is a show, that run on Saturday was absolute 1st class, not worried about his times, to wear down the front runner and blitz NJ in the manner in which he did was just incredible. Having said that I don't think this campaign is the right time to be taking her on but if she kicked on to the next CP he'd have to be a show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Winx will/would not be beaten by TAS this season.. Her sectionlas and ringcraft/maturity leave him for dead. Al lthis talk about him taking her on is just emotional nonsense - typical of human nature ...we all WANT something to seriously challenge her but not beat her..she is so much better than anything else going around in Australasia. TAS is a phenomenal 3yo but even he would have trouble matching her turn of foot, stride length, will to win, and power under all conditions and distances (well, 1400-2200m) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 I'm not even sure TAS would have defeated Happy Clapper in the Chipping. Taking on age-group opposition simply isn't the same. That being said, TAS has a race like the Arc in his future. Lets hope they travel with him before going off to stud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Exactly..why can't we just enjoy watching class thoroughbreds? I have watched with joy, and awe, the likes of Show Gate, Bonecrusher, Sunline, Black Caviar - from a distance Frankel - and now Winx...The Autumn Sun looks a super racehorse in the making - but why does any one of them have to be 'the best'..? what is the point ? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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