Do you see a connection

[Joe Kidd]

between the value of a particular race and the priority a stable puts on winning that race? The answer is of course a resounding YES.

As a result the $$ value of a race is hugely important betting information for punters. Why then does our TAB leave this vital detail out of the races on it's website / betting platform?

Surely they can work out the significance of this information and put it alongside the race name as they did on the old TAB website? Thank you John Allen.....for nothing. 

[Flagship uberalles]

3 hours ago, Joe Kidd said:

between the value of a particular race and the priority a stable puts on winning that race? The answer is of course a resounding YES.

As a result the $$ value of a race is hugely important betting information for punters. Why then does our TAB leave this vital detail out of the races on it's website / betting platform?

Surely they can work out the significance of this information and put it alongside the race name as they did on the old TAB website? Thank you John Allen.....for nothing. 

Quite right Joe, keeping the stakes secret helps the tab get punters to put their hard earned on any old race, especially Australian races, where I would prefer to have a bet on a $37,000 maiden race rather than a $10,000 maiden race if I so desired......

[TheHorseman]

I read somewhere that the TAB/John Allen stated that this would be added in the future, but I read that a number of weeks ago, guess we have to be very patient.

[Joe Kidd]

19 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said:

Quite right Joe, keeping the stakes secret helps the tab get punters to put their hard earned on any old race, especially Australian races, where I would prefer to have a bet on a $37,000 maiden race rather than a $10,000 maiden race if I so desired......

I think they are shooting themselves in the foot Flag. When I see a meaningful stake for a race I automatically take that race far more seriously and that is almost always reflected in the amount I wager. Most of my wagers are between $50 and $100 but almost all of my 1k + wagers have been on group and listed races with decent stakes. Knowing everyone involved is authentic is vitally important. An important part of the gamble is ironically removing as much of the gamble as possible. I started doing my homework for Friday nights big Easter meeting at Addington on Sunday. Have watched the videos etc of about 320 races this week. We have some of the best races I've seen for some time. Can't wait in fact I'm considering flying down on Friday morning to get up close and personal. Welcome Stakes and the Easter Cup are always favourites but I'm salivating over the Trotting Championship. Will be a huge night for the AS. They will quinella the G1 100K Trotting Derby for certain. No reason Kings Landing can't win the 100k G1 Trotting Championships. Stablemate Winterfell gives it a Game Of Thrones look and feel. They look a great bet to run the first 4 in the 50k G2 Welcome Stakes. I'm confident they will run the trifecta in the 100k G1 Easter Cup and I'm very confident they will run the quinella in the 200k G1 Derby.

I would prefer the spoils were shared around but it is what it is. 

[Flagship uberalles]

You would have thought they had the template for everything on the old website, the seem to have forgotten the basics with the excitement of having $50 million to blow.

[Flagship uberalles]

2 minutes ago, Joe Kidd said:

I think they are shooting themselves in the foot Flag. When I see a meaningful stake for a race I automatically take that race far more seriously and that is almost always reflected in the amount I wager. Most of my wagers are between $50 and $100 but almost all of my 1k + wagers have been on group and listed races with decent stakes. Knowing everyone involved is authentic is vitally important. An important part of the gamble is ironically removing as much of the gamble as possible. I started doing my homework for Friday nights big Easter meeting at Addington on Sunday. Have watched the videos etc of about 320 races this week. We have some of the best races I've seen for some time. Can't wait in fact I'm considering flying down on Friday morning to get up close and personal. Welcome Stakes and the Easter Cup are always favourites but I'm salivating over the Trotting Championship. Will be a huge night for the AS. They will quinella the G1 100K Trotting Derby for certain. No reason Kings Landing can't win the 100k G1 Trotting Championships. Stablemate Winterfell gives it a Game Of Thrones look and feel. They look a great bet to run the first 4 in the 50k G2 Welcome Stakes. I'm confident they will run the trifecta in the 100k G1 Easter Cup and I'm very confident they will run the quinella in the 200k G1 Derby.

I would prefer the spoils were shared around but it is what it is. 

I'm much the same as I figure the bigger the stake the better run you will get for your money so the bigger the purse the bigger the bet.

[the galah]

I

3 hours ago, Flagship uberalles said:

I'm much the same as I figure the bigger the stake the better run you will get for your money so the bigger the purse the bigger the bet.

I don't factor in the stake money when having a bet.I do agree it should be on the  tab website

I work on the theory that everyone is trying. You may get let down sometimes,normally in the north island , which can be very annoying.

I think the best value comes in races with full fields,and not dominated by one stable. Therefore I would much rather have a greater spend on a maiden at forbury or methven,than say the easter cup. And that is what I do,and it works for me.  

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by the galah

[Brodie]

38 minutes ago, the galah said:

I

I don't factor in the stake money when having a bet.I do agree it should be on the  tab website

I work on the theory that everyone is trying. You may get let down sometimes,normally in the north island , which can be very annoying.

I think the best value comes in races with full fields,and not dominated by one stable. Therefore I would much rather have a greater spend on a maiden at forbury or methven,than say the easter cup. And that is what I do,and it works for me.  

 

Totally agree.

Generally don’t bother at all on Premier Meetings, as fields always have too much form.

Also, would rather offload on a maiden or loose class field!

Punting on Premier meetings will send you broke long term, especially with the one stable dominating and there being such restricted odds, not worth offloading!

 

[Joe Kidd]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

I

I don't factor in the stake money when having a bet.I do agree it should be on the  tab website

I work on the theory that everyone is trying. You may get let down sometimes,normally in the north island , which can be very annoying.

I think the best value comes in races with full fields,and not dominated by one stable. Therefore I would much rather have a greater spend on a maiden at forbury or methven,than say the easter cup. And that is what I do,and it works for me.  

 

I enjoy betting on the grass track races at Methven etc but stopped believing every runner in every race is there to win about 20 years ago. Why would connections bust a gut in a 10k race when there is a 50k race on it's menu two weeks later? That is especially so if said horse will be penalized for winning lesser value race.

There are a % of horses in almost every race that are not fully nailed down. They could win if everything dropped in their lap but that will be the exception rather than the rule. One of the best guides you will ever get is not just form. It's money. If the money comes, get on board. If a runner gets the blows it usually runs accordingly which is why good judges describe big betting drifts as "alarming". "Educated money" comes from punters who know the horse is ready to work and win and this race has been targeted.

There are a % of horses in almost every lower grade race who could be reasonably competitive in that grade but hopeless in the next grade up. They just can't run the time needed. It's not in the connections best interests to win in that grade too early so many of those horses are "managed". They will milk stake money for a season or two and keep the owner paying the bills. I'm sure there are several good judges on here that know several horses that fit this category and are routinely driven accordingly.  If the horse gets stronger you will see these horses go after the win but this is almost always reflected in the betting. Fact is, it is not in the best long term interests of every runner to win. When you focus in on these sorts of horses, you learn the signs and those signs become VERY reliable.

There can be dozens of reasons why a horse is not out to win a certain race. A common enough example can be where a horse is owned. Take horses racing at the Nelson -Blenheim circuit. They race at Nelson first and then over the Whangamoas to Blenheim. If the horse is owned in Blenheim they will want to see it win there but if it wins at Nelson, some horses will have far less chance to win at Blenheim. That situation is invariably reflected in the betting.

As a younger fella I remember the coat pullers say bla bla bla is trying on Saturday so get on. If the person was reliable, knowing that information was almost akin to having a Back To The Future "Grays Sports Almanac". 

High value G1 races are the same as a reliable coat puller. You know the horse is fit enough to win and you know the connections have targeted it to win that race. All that's left then is form, ability and luck in running. If punting on low value races at Forbury works for you then good luck to you. I prefer knowing every runner is at least there trying to win a targeted race. The form and ability in G1 races is almost always more exposed than in low grade races that have so many question marks.

That aside, I don't just get excited about elite races from a betting perspective. I love watching the best go up against the best. Even if I'm not having a bet I will always do my best to watch a G1 race where as I don't feel I will be missing much if I don't watch a low grade race from Forbury. Each to their own but 20 low grade meetings are still not as good to me as a Premier meeting. 

If you can't get excited about Friday night's Easter meeting at Addington then we are light years apart. To me, Friday night is what keeps me in the game after 45+ years. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Joe Kidd

[the galah]

2 hours ago, Joe Kidd said:

I enjoy betting on the grass track races at Methven etc but stopped believing every runner in every race is there to win about 20 years ago. Why would connections bust a gut in a 10k race when there is a 50k race on it's menu two weeks later? That is especially so if said horse will be penalized for winning lesser value race.

There are a % of horses in almost every race that are not fully nailed down. They could win if everything dropped in their lap but that will be the exception rather than the rule. One of the best guides you will ever get is not just form. It's money. If the money comes, get on board. If a runner gets the blows it usually runs accordingly which is why good judges describe big betting drifts as "alarming". "Educated money" comes from punters who know the horse is ready to work and win and this race has been targeted.

There are a % of horses in almost every lower grade race who could be reasonably competitive in that grade but hopeless in the next grade up. They just can't run the time needed. It's not in the connections best interests to win in that grade too early so many of those horses are "managed". They will milk stake money for a season or two and keep the owner paying the bills. I'm sure there are several good judges on here that know several horses that fit this category and are routinely driven accordingly.  If the horse gets stronger you will see these horses go after the win but this is almost always reflected in the betting. Fact is, it is not in the best long term interests of every runner to win. When you focus in on these sorts of horses, you learn the signs and those signs become VERY reliable.

There can be dozens of reasons why a horse is not out to win a certain race. A common enough example can be where a horse is owned. Take horses racing at the Nelson -Blenheim circuit. They race at Nelson first and then over the Whangamoas to Blenheim. If the horse is owned in Blenheim they will want to see it win there but if it wins at Nelson, some horses will have far less chance to win at Blenheim. That situation is invariably reflected in the betting.

As a younger fella I remember the coat pullers say bla bla bla is trying on Saturday so get on. If the person was reliable, knowing that information was almost akin to having a Back To The Future "Grays Sports Almanac". 

High value G1 races are the same as a reliable coat puller. You know the horse is fit enough to win and you know the connections have targeted it to win that race. All that's left then is form, ability and luck in running. If punting on low value races at Forbury works for you then good luck to you. I prefer knowing every runner is at least there trying to win a targeted race. The form and ability in G1 races is almost always more exposed than in low grade races that have so many question marks.

That aside, I don't just get excited about elite races from a betting perspective. I love watching the best go up against the best. Even if I'm not having a bet I will always do my best to watch a G1 race where as I don't feel I will be missing much if I don't watch a low grade race from Forbury. Each to their own but 20 low grade meetings are still not as good to me as a Premier meeting. 

If you can't get excited about Friday night's Easter meeting at Addington then we are light years apart. To me, Friday night is what keeps me in the game after 45+ years. 

I understand where you are coming from. However I would say those competing at forbury tomorrow night would be trying just as hard to win as those running at addington on Saturday.

I do enjoy watching good horses race, however I get just as much enjoyment out of watching a good keenly contested race,no matter who it is competing. 

I only factor in the money coming if it relates to north island races. For example if it is a runner from the green stable,where they have 2 runners,you can almost guarantee the one without the money on will underperform,.normally due to the driver. That's my opinion anyway.

Pulling horses happened more in the past,than it does now days.  If you've had a bet on one that has not been driven to win,you never forget and you do feel that you have been taken for a ride by those concerned.

For me the biggest turn off from a punting perspective is having small fields dominated by the one  or two stables,no matter what the quality.    

[Joe Kidd]

8 hours ago, the galah said:

I understand where you are coming from. However I would say those competing at forbury tomorrow night would be trying just as hard to win as those running at addington on Saturday.

I do enjoy watching good horses race, however I get just as much enjoyment out of watching a good keenly contested race,no matter who it is competing. 

I only factor in the money coming if it relates to north island races. For example if it is a runner from the green stable,where they have 2 runners,you can almost guarantee the one without the money on will underperform,.normally due to the driver. That's my opinion anyway.

Pulling horses happened more in the past,than it does now days.  If you've had a bet on one that has not been driven to win,you never forget and you do feel that you have been taken for a ride by those concerned.

For me the biggest turn off from a punting perspective is having small fields dominated by the one  or two stables,no matter what the quality.    

I don't disagree with all you say. I'm sure a horse nailed down will try just as hard to win a low value race than a serious horse will try to win a serious race. The difference being that 100% of the field in the high value race have targeted said race and are there to win. The same % most definitely does not apply in the lesser races. Picking a winner can be easy at times and very difficult at other times. I routinely get it wrong for one reason or another. It's rare however that my wager fails due to it not targeting the race. What would annoy the shit out of me is a horse that has lost the race before the race has even started. Obviously, it's in punters best interests to be on to those runners before placing their wagers?

I have a list of pet hates. One is insincerity. Horse is driven like the connections have not got a brass razoo on their horse. Comes off the gate like it's a trial with no stakemoney. Is not looking for a prominent position. Driver ambles around later to sit parked but makes no real attempt to lead despite the driver knowing their charge will be farked before turning in if it stays parked. Another one is drivers that are 3 or 4 back on the outside but when the train moves they don't even bother to look despite knowing they are now trapped and will likely not get a run until the race is all but over. This is a fairly typical way of masking not being there to win. The actions of that driver were invariably reflected in the betting. The comparison of course is when the driver is alert to the train like a far king Meerkat. He knows if the train goes past his chances are over. That drivers actions are also invariably reflected in the betting. Another pet hate is the horse that is going well toward the rear and has done very little work but the driver won't move. When he finally sets off he will almost need to be Cardigan Bay to get up. It runs on very strongly to pick up some minor stakemoney but was full of running at the end and is ready for the targeted race next week.This is normal and also almost always reflected in the betting. I dislike inconsistency with the way horses are driven especially in the home straight. One week the driver looks to be having a picnic and his actions are perfunctory. The following week he / she drives almost like the life of his child is riding on them winning. They are virtually beating the horse up. Most drivers have become masters at going through the motions. No need to be so blatant to pull a horse when you can mask the equivalent so it appears credible. Truth is it does not need to be that authentic for Stipes to accept the drivers justification on the rare occasion they are quizzed. I have virtually no confidence in this area which is one of the main reasons I go after premier racing.  

Another pet hate for me is seeing the same family name appear numerous times in the drivers list for a race. The potential for small favours that can make a huge difference at the finish is considerable. It can be akin to insider trading. I'm not saying they are rorts as invariably they are there to win on their own behalf but I feel a lot more comfortable when I see only one example of a surname in the drivers list. Two family names that I pay close attention to in Australia when I see the their name appear multiple times in the same race are Turnbull in NSW and McMullen in Queensland. 

Some years ago I gave up a modestly successful business to pursue a career as a professional punter. I did so on both sides of the Tasman and maintained it for just over three years. It opens your eyes to certain things such as insincerity and authenticity etc. My pet hates became aspects I would budget on and profit from until ultimately I flagged it away and returned to conventional business.  

I now almost exclusively only target races to wager on that I feel the trainer has targeted. The most straightforward and authentic method I've found is sought after high value group and listed races. This is why the TAB leaving the all important $ value of the race off the race description on their betting platform irks me.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Joe Kidd

[Furlong]

Agree with you Joe Kidd regarding stakes values missing, but you can get these values on the Harnessracing.co.nz web site. Only takes a minute or two to check them out.

[Rangatira]

15 hours ago, Brodie said:

Punting on Premier meetings will send you broke long term, especially with the one stable dominating and there being such restricted odds, not worth offloading!

with that stance old brodster the betfair bookie would be inundated with funds

[Joe Kidd]

1 hour ago, Furlong said:

Agree with you Joe Kidd regarding stakes values missing, but you can get these values on the Harnessracing.co.nz web site. Only takes a minute or two to check them out.

I appreciate what you're saying Furlong and was aware of that detail. Many can recognize most races that are listed or group on name alone but that's not always the case and this lack of race value is with all codes. Much easier just to have the race value on the betting platform than start cross referencing for every race you're looking at. I hope they attend to this sooner rather than later. 

[The Centaur]

On 3/04/2019 at 4:11 PM, Flagship uberalles said:

You would have thought they had the template for everything on the old website, the seem to have forgotten the basics with the excitement of having $50 million to blow.

I think some of that $50m has ended up on the waterfront at the Viaduct. One stern critic on another site drastically changed his tune and now only bashes NZTR.

[retarded driver]

joe kidd are you broke.did the rotten crims get your money