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Bit Of A Yarn

Melody Belle Trackwork at Flemington 29 October 2019


Chief Stipe

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36 minutes ago, curious said:

True. The evidence suggests that most horses do not improve on their best 2yo performance. Thommo is probably the same. A promising or maybe unpromising 2yo and hasn't improved. Hopefully he'll be better once he graduates from his remedial reading classes.

How do you quantify it and what adjustment do you make to the chance of the horse in the current race? I tend to assume that its ability is assessable from its more "lucky" runs. I certainly know that wide can be essential for best performances. I can give you first hand examples.

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9 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Thats the WHOLE argument...I CAN quantify it ...you can't 

That's a tiny piece of the discussion.

Good on you if you can quantify it. Haven't see a single time when you have done so pre race.

Given you are a fraud, I don't believe you can. Whatever you come up with is likely just more of your usual dribble.

Edited by mardigras
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36 minutes ago, curious said:

True. The evidence suggests that most horses do not improve on their best 2yo performance. Thommo is probably the same. A promising or maybe unpromising 2yo and hasn't improved. Hopefully he'll be better once he graduates from his remedial reading classes.

How do you quantify it and what adjustment do you make to the chance of the horse in the current race? I tend to assume that its ability is assessable from its more "lucky" runs. I certainly know that wide can be essential for best performances. I can give you first hand examples.

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4 minutes ago, Thomass said:

A 'orse could have matured into Group company...as 'orse's do...wtf knew...not you...

I open my eyes...who knew I'm not deaf or blind?

And I quantify that new 'rating'...they can't...and you're cluless

OK. Please educate me. Give us an example of how you adjust chance or price in accord with an unlucky run. A prospective example would be good.

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6 minutes ago, curious said:

How do you quantify it and what adjustment do you make to the chance of the horse in the current race? I tend to assume that its ability is assessable from its more "lucky" runs. I certainly know that wide can be essential for best performances. I can give you first hand examples.

A number of ways...but essentially I open my f in eyes...

Without cover throughout...could be as much as 1 sec or 6L...depending on how many corners....

For you going around and round in circles...

C= π*d = 2*π*r.

Being a Horseman I know some 'Orse's require 'width' to keep out of trouble...and slower 'Orse's'...or slower people

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Thomass said:

And you're CLULESS when it comes to this

A 'orse could have matured into Group company...as 'orse's do...wtf knew...not you...

I open my eyes...who knew I'm not deaf or blind?

And I quantify that new 'rating'...they can't...and you're cluless

As for Blinkers...and which you're also cluless

The connections of The Shark, Melody Belle, Catalyst and Loire just love them...

...even the neddys may like them...perhaps they go 'faster'?

ffs

 

That's the best you can come up with?  In between the personal insults I don't see any logic or rational thought process from you.  What I have learnt from reading your garbage is that I know a lot more than I thought I did.  Certainly Mardigras and Curious have added to that knowledge.  

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7 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Without cover throughout...could be as much as 1 sec or 6L...depending on how many corners....

For you going around and round in circles...

C= π*d = 2*π*r.

The point is, which you fail to understand, is you can't predict if that horse will be "unlucky and wide" in the next race.  You still must go back to assessing the horse's ability relative to the field and then look for price value.

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4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

That's the best you can come up with?  In between the personal insults I don't see any logic or rational thought process from you.  What I have learnt from reading your garbage is that I know a lot more than I thought I did.  Certainly Mardigras and Curious have added to that knowledge.  

Look you " low life scum"...

opps soz...that's me...

What don't you get about maturing neddys racing into career best form and your new bff's being unable to quantify a new 'best speed rating'?

I couldnt insert any more sense into something so basic unless I wrote it on a carrot and let you do what you want with it...

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3 minutes ago, Thomass said:

What don't you get about maturing neddys racing into career best form and your new bff's being unable to quantify a new 'best speed rating'?

 

So where do I get the information about "the maturing neddy" from?  How do I relate that to predicted performance?  How do I differentiate one "maturing neddy" from another in the same race?  

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10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

The point is, which you fail to understand, is you can't predict if that horse will be "unlucky and wide" in the next race.  You still must go back to assessing the horse's ability relative to the field and then look for price value.

Because it's a stupid hypothetical load of b/s that's why...

Ive assessed superior Black Type form...back to inferior mid weak...then as informed...ad nauseomly...incrementally increased the stake invested as the price increases...

Your hypothetical b/s is like saying you know the winning Lotto numbers...but what if they don't come out like that..

doh

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4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

So where do I get the information about "the maturing neddy" from?  How do I relate that to predicted performance?  How do I differentiate one "maturing neddy" from another in the same race?  

Im saying your new bff's have totally blocked ANY improvement into their 'speed ratings' by ignoring ANY recent starts that have been unlucky...

apparently according to wee c, they show their best ability as 2yo's and don't improve from there

ffs...Ive NEVER heard of ANYTHING so preposterous 

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4 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Because it's a stupid hypothetical load of b/s that's why...

Ive assessed superior Black Type form...back to inferior mid weak...then as informed...ad nauseomly...incrementally increased the stake invested as the price increases...

Your hypothetical b/s is like saying you know the winning Lotto numbers...but what if they don't come out like that..

doh

Funny because that is exactly what you've been doing. Saying what the lotto numbers are after the lotto result.

And you expect people to believe your crap.

I've put up pre race, hundreds of horses to have raced well in a higher grade/black type, back to low grade/mid week. The results were horrific. But they do look good when you just pick the winners out of them all and state you have the answers.

We all have the answers after the race has been run Mr Fraud.

 

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19 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Your hypothetical b/s is like saying you know the winning Lotto numbers...but what if they don't come out like that..

 

It is nothing like Lotto at all.  However this comment reinforces your lack of understanding.  The probability of any one number being drawn in Lotto is the same.  The price (value) of those numbers are the same.  

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4 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Oh ffs...are you American and have no concept of the word IRONY?

Theres no such thing as winning Lotto numbers BEFORE the event...

Just like there's no such thing as being "unlucky" BEFORE the race

Why do you keep giving us the winning numbers after the race then? Certainly they are just drawn from a very large set of numbers and you just pick out the winning ones. After they've been 'drawn'.

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29 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Funny because that is exactly what you've been doing. Saying what the lotto numbers are after the lotto result.

And you expect people to believe your crap.

I've put up pre race, hundreds of horses to have raced well in a higher grade/black type, back to low grade/mid week. The results were horrific. But they do look good when you just pick the winners out of them all and state you have the answers.

We all have the answers after the race has been run Mr Fraud.

 

Oh what's that Mr. Hypocrite??

At least I put my MULTIS up BEFORE the event....

You put your Guineas thugnail...AFTER

Your 'stats' are laughable though...they're DEFINITELY not mine...

My concept of 'racing well' and yours are as removed as a penis and a vagina...

...you simulate...I do the opposite

Edited by Thomass
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14 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Oh ffs...are you American and have no concept of the word IRONY?

Theres no such thing as winning Lotto numbers BEFORE the event...

Just like there's no such thing as being "unlucky" BEFORE the race

I see a pattern when you get spanked you say the word "irony".

Of course there is no such thing as being "unlucky" before a race.  You may apply the term subjectively AFTER a race.  However the point is you can't predict what will happen next time in terms of "unlucky" or "lucky" so why bother about it at all?

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Just now, Thomass said:

Oh what's that Mr. Hypocrite??

At least I put my MULTIS up BEFORE the event....

You put your Guineas thugnail...AFTER

Your 'stats' are laughable though...they DEFINITELY not mine...

My concept of 'racing well' and yours are as removed as a penis and a vagina...

...you simulate...I do the opposite

If you're referring to when you put up some Woodville selections and your multis lost money as prescribed, then good on you for doing that. That's the only time I've seen you put up and multis before the races. You did better than expected, though only about as good as a dart thrown at the form guide.

I don't do multis so I'm not likely to put any up pre race.

I have though, put up massively more selections than you have. And massively more winners as well. 

But not when I've put up the horses that match your blue print. That's when the winners dry up with no value to be had.

The reason for that (which is not subjective at all, just fact), is because your blue print is flawed and you're a fraud.

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The way you use standover tactics...

...you could be a minty as a gang prospect?

The Minty Gang aka Sniftas...

But seriously i'll give you the opportunity to resurrect any semblance of 'gravitas' you may have had left by running us through the "2yo form is the best it'll ever produce" b/s...

...is that verbatimly correct??

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