mardigras Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 I don't comment on plenty of his posts. But his posts that are supposedly about punting - are all about the use of generic statistics to succeed at punting. It wouldn't matter who wrote it, if you put up a post stating you can use statistics in the manner defined to win, I will respond with why you can't. O'Sullivan is in the business of selling data and horse racing systems based on that data. He writes about ways to apply that data to win. Why wouldn't he, he wants to sell more services from the likes of TRB and GTX. I don't do speed maps, I ignore draws and weight. I agree. See, I don't always disagree. I also don't do wide or unlucky. I don't suggest others should ignore these things. At most, I'd suggest if they wanted to they could try and assess races ignoring weight for example. Track the results versus their analysis including weight and then draw their own conclusion. It doesn't take me time to look at a race and assess it. I use a computer to do that. But it certainly does not use any generic statistical data, only individual horse facts such as times run to compare the horses that are competing in a race. I got a few wrong yesterday. First three races at Riccarton I backed Lady Byron, Picture Me Rollin and Cinto Bay all only to win. You'd probably claim that was bullshit as well. I've put a heap of selections up on this and other sites that don't win, clearly more that lose than win. I have also managed to put plenty up that have won pre race. I've found you can't usually get a bet on after they've won. My methods aren't the only way. There are many many ways to win at punting. But generic stats such as the blue print, is not one of the ways since it is flawed. The writer of it doesn't understand statistics, so doesn't understand why it is flawed. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Fish Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 41 minutes ago, mardigras said: ... My methods aren't the only way. There are many many ways to win at punting. (as a guess) what % you recon have a winning record? 1% 2% 3%.... I am totally locked into my approach! 99% on 'how the horse presents, in the BC, in its prelim! around at the start! The major weakness in my approach is that the so often don't show all the horses! or film them in a way that is not helpful... also, I would bet into about 1% of races that I watch! sigh... lol! I would love to spend a day with ya watching you go about your way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Murray Fish said: lol! I would love to spend a day with ya watching you go about your way! I think you would find it very boring watching Mardi, wouldn't be much going on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 (edited) My opinion is that it would be less than the often stated 5%. Obviously the punter is already working from a disadvantage as the bookies/odds setters have a built in margin - so the punter is already 10-15% behind when trying to profit. And that applies in tote betting also. Even in betfair, you are betting/laying into a market with a 6 - 10% disadvantage across the market. People have criticised me for suggesting it, but my opinion is that you have to be doing something or looking at something the majority of punters are not doing the same way. Such as looking at where punters views cause price changes due to situation x that over-state the importance of situation x. For me, those things tend to include things like weight and barrier. I have a mate that has an eye for identifying and comparing physical differences between runners. Has a very good record at the track, but rarely bets when not at the track - probably due to the issues you mention. Edited November 16, 2019 by mardigras 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 48 minutes ago, mardigras said: I don't do speed maps, I ignore draws and weight. I agree. I also don't do wide or unlucky. I would suggest that if you did consider some of the above in pre-post analysis then your strike rated would improve. Do you not consider wide or unlucky runs because you don't programme for those factors in your computer? I always consider where my runner is most likely going to position in a race and I certainly look at tough wide runs and unlucky runs. Do you do horses for courses? Two obvious ones at Tauranga yesterday for example that won being Nasha Riva and Battle Time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 minute ago, All The Aces said: I would suggest that if you did consider some of the above in pre-post analysis then your strike rated would improve. Do you not consider wide or unlucky runs because you don't programme for those factors in your computer? I always consider where my runner is most likely going to position in a race and I certainly look at tough wide runs and unlucky runs. Do you do horses for courses? Two obvious ones at Tauranga yesterday for example that won being Nasha Riva and Battle Time You are probably right - but the problem for me is I don't do anything subjectively. So I haven't the skill to work out what impact to a horse's performance being wide or unlucky had on that performance. But I do expect that a horse is not going to always be wide or unlucky and therefore at some point I will be able to make an assessment of the horse overall. How do you decide what impact wide or unlucky has on a performance? Why do you think wide is worse than not wide? Covering more distance? Wind? What about those things versus free running and no impact to momentum? A wide horse coming around the turn level with an inside horse, is already running faster than the inside horse so has greater momentum and then at the point of wanting to accelerate, is already at a faster speed. So many variables and some on here go on about pi as if it is important. I can't work out if being wide is a disadvantage. When watching a race, I like it. Loire was wide before settling two wide, came wider well before the turn and then came around the turn nearly the widest. Had the best momentum and won the race. What do you add on for that performance for when she starts next? No, I don't consider horses for courses. In the case of Battle Time, I don't think he is a Tauranga course specialist. His wins there have been against lesser competition than some of his runs elsewhere where he hasn't won. I haven't seen his performances there being consistently superior to his performances elsewhere. I priced him at the top of my pricing yesterday at $3.20 and that had no extra consideration of his course specific results. If you think a horse is a course specialist, how do you adjust the other horses racing against that horse. They must all be less likely due to racing a course specialist? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 (edited) 30 minutes ago, All The Aces said: I would suggest that if you did consider some of the above in pre-post analysis then your strike rated would improve. Do you not consider wide or unlucky runs because you don't programme for those factors in your computer? I always consider where my runner is most likely going to position in a race and I certainly look at tough wide runs and unlucky runs. Do you do horses for courses? Two obvious ones at Tauranga yesterday for example that won being Nasha Riva and Battle Time I'm reluctant to enter into what appears to be becoming a rational discussion, however, I'll risk it. I doubt that mardi has not done as you suggest re weight and barrier draws at least. The impact of wide and moreso unlucky is harder to quantify. On the latter, I tend to assess ability based on other runs, not just the unlucky or wide one, so if it is a factor, then that run based on time is likely to be not up to best ability which is what I am after. I don't think wide generally affects chance negatively on average. For some horses at least, it is preferable. As to barrier (and weight), my comparative analyses here, Oz and in the US suggest their effect is over estimated by most markets making horses with wider barriers likely to be at better value, thus a disproportionate number of my bets are horses with wide barriers and higher weights. Please note, I am not saying that weight (or barrier for that matter) don't make a difference, just that they do not have a significant assessable impact on chance, again across those three jurisdictions. Edited November 16, 2019 by curious 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 (edited) 37 minutes ago, All The Aces said: I would suggest that if you did consider some of the above in pre-post analysis then your strike rated would improve. Do you not consider wide or unlucky runs because you don't programme for those factors in your computer? I always consider where my runner is most likely going to position in a race and I certainly look at tough wide runs and unlucky runs. Do you do horses for courses? Two obvious ones at Tauranga yesterday for example that won being Nasha Riva and Battle Time The problem is ATA & the bit that Thomass can't understand is how much weighting to you apply to that unlucky run?. Its unquantifiable so for me it can't be considered as a factor, I can't compare 1 unlucky run to a wide run with any sort of accuracy so then it just becomes a guesstimate. In an activity like betting which is full of uncertainty placing any real emphasis on a factor like wide runs, 3yr olds after Xmas, Blinkers on & a number of the other blueprint ideas only adds to the uncertainty. You & T has criticised Myself, Curious & Mardi for putting up prices miles out of whack with the market on many runners, that comes down to what Mardi stated above that we are not looking to match what the general consensus is but to differentiate from it, following the pack doesn't win you a cent long term. Edited November 16, 2019 by barryb 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 On 16/11/2019 at 10:46 PM, All The Aces said: Touchy aren't we...clearly embarrassed I would think and so you should be. . ? I find it rather ironic that anything Thomas puts up including other people's articles such as Dan O'Sullivan's you use to have a go at him. I bet that if one of your mates has posted it you would have found it great and very informative. So, you don't do speed maps, you don't do draws, you don't worry about weight, etc etc....gosh it must take you ten seconds to look at a race and find the winner and just about every time it seems. Where did you buy your lucky darts from? ? Good on you ATA...for bringing some decorum onto the front line...it's like....Ive got a twin....I'm a lurva not a fighter as well...brother And you got rid of the "dirty low life scum" as well...big ups But we get it now don't we? Grasi's a modern day Magoo...refuses to do intuitive stuff that requires eyesight and 'cop the f on'... ...just lumps a shit load of 'stats' into a PC program and 'arbs' the shit out of it..... In fact who knows... ...he could be THE Modern Day GALILEO...nobody believed him either....hell, the Sun might even revolve around wee Grassi for all we know?? A 'Punting God'? ...but let me tell you... I knew GALILEO...and he's no GALILEO... ...I'm betting a 'flat earther'?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Talk about a long winded way of saying - I don't listen to hearsay, I don't consider guesses. And I don't use stats. Simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, Thomass said: Good on you ATA...for bringing some decorum onto the front line...it's like....Ive got a twin....I'm a lurva not a fighter as well...brother And you got rid of the "dirty low life scum" as well...big ups But we get it now don't we? Grasi's a modern day Magoo...refuses to do intuitive stuff that requires eyesight and 'cop the f on'... ...just lumps a shit load of 'stats' into a PC program and 'arbs' the shit out of it..... In fact who knows... ...he could be THE Modern Day GALILEO...nobody believed him either....hell, the Sun might even revolve around wee Grassi for all we know?? A 'Punting God'? ...but let me tell you... I knew GALILEO...and he's no GALILEO... ...I'm betting a 'flat earther'?? Yep Thomaas immediately throws a rational discussion out the window. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 On 17/11/2019 at 9:36 AM, curious said: I doubt that mardi has not done as you suggest re weight and barrier draws at least. The impact of wide and moreso unlucky is harder to quantify. On the latter, I tend to assess ability based on other runs, not just the unlucky or wide one, so if it is a factor, then that run based on time is likely to be not up to best ability which is what I am after. I don't think wide generally affects chance negatively on average. For some horses at least, it is preferable. "On other runs"? So you give zero consideration to 'maturing' horses and they're all like machines...from the get go? I most certainly open the eyes...believe in improving maturing horses...to where some get to top class Black Type races..trying their hearts out... ...whereupon.... remarkably...some are unlucky, caught without cover, on unsuitable tracks, while being slow... All considerations I take into account and grant time considerations... ...you don't....Theres the stark difference ...and why you're trying out "Maiden races to 'invest' on in NZ" next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Thomass said: "On other runs"? So you give zero consideration to 'maturing' horses and they're all like machines...from the get go? I most certainly open the eyes...believe in improving maturing horses...to where some get to top class Black Type races..trying their hearts out... ...whereupon.... remarkably...some are unlucky, caught without cover, on unsuitable tracks, while being slow... All considerations I take into account and grant time considerations... ...you don't....Theres the stark difference ...and why you're trying out "Maiden races to 'invest' on in NZ" next Can you try that again in English that I can understand. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 The STARK diff. is that you're BLIND...ok Magoo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Just now, Thomass said: The STARK diff. is that you're BLIND...ok Magoo? Happy to be blind. Better than being a fraud, Mr Fraud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Thomass said: The STARK diff. is that you're BLIND...ok Magoo? OK. Thanks for the help. From a blind standpoint it appears to me that I'm not the one that is blind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 I'm frankly surprised that being a self confessed 'Horseman'... ...you find it impossible to admit horse's aren't machines and as they mature some become even faster...no matter how that occurs... I can and do...maturing into Black Type or superior quality racing...that includes neddy's being UNLUCKY We get it... YOU and your mates...IGNORE it... You're all happy to be ignorant...good on you Big ups to ignorami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 It's a bloody shame for this site that this thread for example which had evolved into a reasonably intelligent discussion has been wrecked as soon as they let you out on Monday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thomass said: I'm frankly surprised that being a self confessed 'Horseman'... ...you find it impossible to admit horse's aren't machines and as they mature some become even faster...no matter how that occurs... Where did I say that? I agree some do but I'm unclear what that has to do with the discussion. And it is rare. Most horses' best performances don't exceed that demonstrated in their first few runs. Not that we were talking about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Thomass said: I can and do...maturing into Black Type or superior quality racing...that includes neddy's being UNLUCKY You are becoming tedious and certainly you are not maturing. Can you predict if the "neddy" is going to be unlucky again in its next race? No you can't. Can you predict if another horse will be "luckier"? No you can't. So the point is it is a waste of time worrying about something as subjective as "lucky" or "unlucky." Likewise with blinkers and every other aspect of the BS BP. You can't predict what will happen in the next race therefore, and this is the point you fail to understand, you need to determine value on previous facts relative to that horse's ability relative to the field it is racing against. The TAB loves types like you as you continue to lose hence you assist revenue collecting. Keep on doing the industry a favour - it needs you! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: You are becoming tedious and certainly you are not maturing. Can you predict if the "neddy" is going to be unlucky again in its next race? No you can't. Can you predict if another horse will be "luckier"? No you can't. So the point is it is a waste of time worrying about something as subjective as "lucky" or "unlucky." Likewise with blinkers and every other aspect of the BS BP. You can't predict what will happen in the next race therefore, and this is the point you fail to understand, you need to determine value on previous facts relative to that horse's ability relative to the field it is racing against. The TAB loves types like you as you continue to lose hence you assist revenue collecting. Keep on doing the industry a favour - it needs you! True. The evidence suggests that most horses do not improve on their best 2yo performance. Thommo is probably the same. A promising or maybe unpromising 2yo and hasn't improved. Hopefully he'll be better once he graduates from his remedial reading classes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, curious said: Hopefully he'll be better once he graduates from his remedial reading classes. Depends if he wears blinkers to class or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, curious said: Where did I say that? I agree some do but I'm unclear what that has to do with the discussion. And it is rare. Most horses' best performances don't exceed that demonstrated in their first few runs. Not that we were talking about that. And 'most' don't win a race either... But FFS it's just errant nonsense you're talking....and we're talking NZ here btw Not the European O'Brien standard This b/s "On the latter, I tend to assess ability based on other runs, not just the unlucky or wide one, so if it is a factor, then that run based on time is likely to be not up to best ability which is what I am after. I don't think wide generally affects chance negatively on average." Of course an unlucky run be it wide or on unsuitable ground won't be " best ability" Thats the WHOLE argument...I CAN quantify it ...you can't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 33 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: You are becoming tedious and certainly you are not maturing. Can you predict if the "neddy" is going to be unlucky again in its next race? No you can't. Can you predict if another horse will be "luckier"? No you can't. So the point is it is a waste of time worrying about something as subjective as "lucky" or "unlucky." Likewise with blinkers and every other aspect of the BS BP. You can't predict what will happen in the next race therefore, and this is the point you fail to understand, you need to determine value on previous facts relative to that horse's ability relative to the field it is racing against. The TAB loves types like you as you continue to lose hence you assist revenue collecting. Keep on doing the industry a favour - it needs you! And you're CLULESS when it comes to this A 'orse could have matured into Group company...as 'orse's do...wtf knew...not you... I open my eyes...who knew I'm not deaf or blind? And I quantify that new 'rating'...they can't...and you're cluless As for Blinkers...and which you're also cluless The connections of The Shark, Melody Belle, Catalyst and Loire just love them... ...even the neddys may like them...perhaps they go 'faster'? ffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 How do you quantify it and what adjustment do you make to the chance of the horse in the current race? I tend to assume that its ability is assessable from its more "lucky" runs. I certainly know that wide can be essential for best performances. I can give you first hand examples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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