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Bit Of A Yarn

Melody Belle Trackwork at Flemington 29 October 2019


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11 hours ago, All The Aces said:

 

I look at a horse's times to a certain degree but it is not a main focus. If we only had two tracks in NZ such as Hong Kong does then I would place a lot more emphasis on times. However NZ has 50 or so odd tracks all different.

Let's look at 1200m times for example.

Ellerslie's track record for 1200m is 1:07:73 set back in 1987 by the brilliant Diamond Lover. Te Rapa's track record is slower at 1:08:60. Riccarton 1:07:01 Trentham 1:06:51 and say one provincial eg Tauranga 1:08:69.  Both Trentham and Riccarton are run downhill from a chute and with a tailwind up their backsides horses can run super quick times. 

Take for example the Telegraph this year. 18 starters, the race won by Enzo's Lad a nose in front of Ferrando in 1:06:95. The next 12 runners all broke 1:08:00. 

Going into their next starts and comparing times they would have probably been head and shoulders quicker on paper but they don't race on paper do they. 

Of the 18 starters on 2 managed to win at their next starts Gift Of Power who ran 6th and Melody Belle who ran 16th in 1:08:63.

I look at race video's and trial video's, look at all the horse's details including track and distance stats, whether it is back in grade, up in grade, barrier draw, whether it races well fresh or needs a few runs, look at it's second up record, look at it's winning weights to see what it is capable of winning with, check where the rail is positioned, do speed maps to find out where my runner may position in the running, track conditions of course, look at stipe reports and take note of any gear changes. Also look at rider and take in birdcage looks and preliminaries so basically what I am saying is that I don't put all my eggs in one basket and rely on one dominant feature such as times but use a variety of means to come up with the horse I want to back in a race.

The more work I put in the luckier I seem to get.

I had one bet at Rotorua yesterday for example, (now before you say after the race) I will explain why. Munster in R3 who was having his first start. He was beaten a lip in his first trial by Green Bravo in what was the fastest of the 10 maiden heats and then won his second trial beating Reika in the fastest of the 11 heats. Both Green Bravo and Reika came out and won on debut. Munster drew the ace yesterday and based on his last trial from that draw I expected him to lead or trail and be right on pace. By my reckoning if they run the race 10 times I though he would win 9 times so at $2.90 on opening he was way overs and a top value bet. He jumped, led and won by a half length. And that's all she wrote.         

 

  

Great post ATA

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3 hours ago, mardigras said:

Thanks for your concern over my use of times. Interesting that in your example, you've pretty much used times as the basis for determining the horse you wanted to back.

(Answer: Incorrect, it was only a partial basis, the main factors being the form from the two horses coming out of each trial and winning impressively and that drawn the ace he was more than likely going to lead, so it was a combination all of factors with time not being the major factor)  

As I say, I don't look at race or trial videos (except from wanting to watch a race replay), I ignore track and distance stats, ignore what grade the horse ran in, ignore barrier draw.

(Answer: I consider looking at race and a trial videos a pre requisite when determining any form for a race)   

I do consider whether the race is in line with where the specific horse has shown it's best performances from a fitness assessment. I also ignore what weights it has run with (or won with). I think it is a fair point that a horse may have a maximum weight carrying ability, but I'm happy to err if that arises.

I ignore where the rail is. I don't support the view that the rail position favours forward or back. A wide rail position will only disadvantage back if the track is so narrow, the horses are having to corner outside the crown of the track or if the track is so narrow, there is an issue around having sufficiently clear pathways - in my opinion.

(Answer: I do take note of where the rail is especially when it goes back into the inside rail position as this then exposes fresh even ground as opposed to rougher worn ground that has been in use from prior meetings especially from recent meetings. With a strip of unused ground providing faster footing for a horse if I can determine on pace horse that will get use of that strip especially in the early races before it may get chopped out whereas a back runner, unless ridden for luck through the field on the inside strip, will have to come wide to make it's run in worn, rougher ground. They quite often loom up out wide but the inside horses on the better strip  more often go on to win.)  

I'd consider doing speed maps, purely from the point of view to assist in knowing the conditions of speed where the horse I am assessing has performed best to increase or decrease confidence that the horse will run to its best. I ignore stipe reports and I absolutely ignore any gear changes.

(Answer: I do speed maps to assess where my horse will most probably likely to position in the race and determine what sort of run it is likely to get from there. So I will also look at any early pattern. Craig Williams and other top riders most certainly place a huge emphasis on doing speed maps so who am I to argue with them. I always look at stipe reports following meetings as you don't always pick up everything looking at video's especially if you don't have a head on and it is another tool for picking up information.)  

I largely ignore the rider - except there is the odd rider I simply will not back. I don't adjust the horse's chance, I just don't bet. (I also ignore who the trainer is).

(Answer: Just like any sport there are those who are consistently better than others and I like to see a top rider and top trainer combining especially when they have a very strong winning strike rate together.) 

If I am at the track, I will look at the horses and form an opinion. I'm not skilled enough to alter my assessment from that. But when I am at the track, I will bet for entertainment purposes. So could back anything based on what I see or the colours as the horse does its prelim past me. I also like those that start with the letter M, has a nice ring to it. Like Mardi Gras - a reasonable performer in Queensland in the past. Doing that is not something I would suggest to be the secret to profiting from punting.

(Answer:  I would say to that then you need to upskill. I go to the track regularly and will make changes after looking at them individually. By going regularly you get to see them and can spot changes in them and learn to recognize if they are ready or not. This can save you or make you money depending on the scenario. As to saying the letter M has a nice ring to it I think you will find that the letter O is far better in that regard.) 

Each to their own. But that is a far different scenario to when we are discussing the blue print. Since the blueprint is a set of population based rules. Which are flawed. I wish they weren't for then this discussion wouldn't have taken place. But I don't make the rules. My points for when I am at the track is a bit like the blue print. Flawed - but OK just for entertainment purposes.

(Answer: Agree, each to their own as you put it, but when I go to the track I seek to get the best outcome I can get by combining all my processes to hopefully determine the best horse or horses on the day. After all that and they do get up then the entertainment kicks in.) 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Murray Fish said:

that makes sense to me re mostly win...  though gee! the Place can be the way to 'paying the rent!'!

I only bet place if the place odds are significantly above the odds I think the horse should be paying to win. So if I have a horse at 10% win chance, then place odds of $12+ are appealing to me. That doesn't happen often which is why I don't bet place often. The chances of winning versus the chances of placing are generally not reflected in the prices available in my view.

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Good luck to you ATA. Sounds like a lot of work to me and I'm not convinced it would make any difference to my end result. I certainly couldn't look at strike rates of jockeys/trainers.

30+ years ago I used to do many of the things you describe. Back then I was a losing punter. How long does it take you to analyse the 100 odd horses for a meeting for all their starts to see what you need to do about any element of wide or unlucky? Do you record the alterations you make for every race a horse has?

And if a horse was 3 wide for a race, what do you actually do with that knowledge. If you hadn't known it was 3 wide for a race, and you thought it had a 20% chance based on that, what chance do you give it after you've watched the video? And then what do you do with the chances of the other horses?

Or do you not work out what you think the chances of winning each horse has in a race?

Edited by mardigras
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30+ years ago most of the information wasn't at your finger tips such as trial video's race videos just for starters. Now a vast majority of the information I look at is easily located on the NZTR website.

If you did want to look at a strike rate for a jockey/trainer combination one click will provide that for you.

Eg; Look at R2 at Taranaki tomorrow ridden by Opie Bosson and trained by Jamie Richards

Click on Opie Bosson and the stats come up. Firstly with all his rides on the particular horse, 1 ride unplaced. Then rides for trainer (in this case Jamie Richards) 156 rides for 43 wins and 40 placings with a winning strike rate of 3.6. It will then show you Opie's stats at New Plymouth  291 rides for 71 wins and 67 placings with a winning strike rate of 4.1.

 I would spend about 4 to 5 hours (not at once) doing analysis for any one meeting.

As to whether I am successful...….well I do majority of my betting in cash which is one of the main reasons I go on -course.    Take what you will from that, I won't be expanding any further other than to say my betting bank funds a number of things.  ?

Good luck with what you do, I couldn't leave out the host of things you don't look at or don't include when looking at a horse and expect to be as confident that's for sure.

Here endeth the topic from me.  

 

  

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36 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

30+ years ago most of the information wasn't at your finger tips such as trial video's race videos just for starters. Now a vast majority of the information I look at is easily located on the NZTR website.

If you did want to look at a strike rate for a jockey/trainer combination one click will provide that for you.

Eg; Look at R2 at Taranaki tomorrow ridden by Opie Bosson and trained by Jamie Richards

Click on Opie Bosson and the stats come up. Firstly with all his rides on the particular horse, 1 ride unplaced. Then rides for trainer (in this case Jamie Richards) 156 rides for 43 wins and 40 placings with a winning strike rate of 3.6. It will then show you Opie's stats at New Plymouth  291 rides for 71 wins and 67 placings with a winning strike rate of 4.1.

 I would spend about 4 to 5 hours (not at once) doing analysis for any one meeting.

As to whether I am successful...….well I do majority of my betting in cash which is one of the main reasons I go on -course.    Take what you will from that, I won't be expanding any further other than to say my betting bank funds a number of things.  ?

Good luck with what you do, I couldn't leave out the host of things you don't look at or don't include when looking at a horse and expect to be as confident that's for sure.

Here endeth the topic from me.  

 

  

Thanks for your well written and reasoned contribution Aces.

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17 hours ago, mardigras said:

 

And if a horse was 3 wide for a race, what do you actually do with that knowledge. If you hadn't known it was 3 wide for a race, and you thought it had a 20% chance based on that, what chance do you give it after you've watched the video? And then what do you do with the chances of the other horses?

 

Oh my...this shows just how ignorant you truely is...

Its about 'compensatory consideration' when analysing form such as this....

A maturing improving horse could have 3/4 unlucky, without cover runs et el and you've missed those vital KPI races in your 'speed' portfolio 

Of course any form analyst worth their salt compensates for such events...

...just as they do for COURSE SEPECIALISTS....

Some find it hard to believe that certain surfaces, surroundings, left/ right are what animals prefer...

....but they'd be in denial of basic Thoroughbred behaviour 

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32 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Oh my...this shows just how ignorant you truely is...

Its about 'compensatory consideration' when analysing form such as this....

A maturing improving horse could have 3/4 unlucky, without cover runs et el and you've missed those vital KPI races in your 'speed' portfolio 

Of course any form analyst worth their salt compensates for such events...

...just as they do for COURSE SEPECIALISTS....

Some find it hard to believe that certain surfaces, surroundings, left/ right are what animals prefer...

....but they'd be in denial of basic Thoroughbred behaviour 

I didn't ask for a stupid response. I got one though. I'll know better from now on.

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The massive problem is you and your wee mate cee are in denial about maturing horses performing to a higher degree...

Especially in NZ...perhaps wee cee's right about the " they don't improve from their peak 2 yo race"?

Maybe he's got stats for 1/4 horse barrel racing??

Hes closed up on that now...

..maybe he's massively embarrassed by it just as you and Bazz were about finding value on Whanga H 11 Rail huggers?

Or REDZEL's trainer's wrong...

Amazingly ignorant, arrogant brain farts you guys light the sky with...

Any farts today?

 

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11 hours ago, Thomass said:

The massive problem is you and your wee mate cee are in denial about maturing horses performing to a higher degree...

Especially in NZ...perhaps wee cee's right about the " they don't improve from their peak 2 yo race"?

Maybe he's got stats for 1/4 horse barrel racing??

Hes closed up on that now...

..maybe he's massively embarrassed by it just as you and Bazz were about finding value on Whanga H 11 Rail huggers?

Or REDZEL's trainer's wrong...

Amazingly ignorant, arrogant brain farts you guys light the sky with...

Any farts today?

 

Do some homework. I'm not going to feed you anymore.

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34 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Cant work out a "140%'" market includes Emergencies....

Call 111 mate you've been had....

Not sure what this has to do with the discussion but could you explain the above in a bit more detail please?

I tried 111 but they didn't seem to know much about it.

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As with most threads you and your cohorts enter...they detour off track and remain there...

The market was always 125% without the Ballots, as per a normal race with the TAB bookies..but you sycophants were too scared to question the ignoramous about it...

Lets agree MB was always going to be competitive after previous excellent form trips over there...

..who knew Blinkers a TT and Nasal Strip, to stop her bleeding,  are universally recognised as performance enhancers?

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29 minutes ago, Thomass said:

The market was always 125% without the Ballots, as per a normal race with the TAB bookies..but you sycophants were too scared to question the ignoramous about it...

Ignoramis is what they are.

And they were questioned, can't they read the posts about it? And you defended them. Because you are ignorami also. You couldn't even work out that when they do that, the true percentage of the market is the full %. How stupid are you? No need to answer, we already know.

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Too late Mardi and as I have said previously I don't tip.

The reason I mentioned it was on the basis of what I posted earlier in this thread on as to how I do analysis re video's (which you said you don't do) and how an example like this can help someone for the future.    

That way you could find it yourself and back it prior to the race and at value as the opening odds were very good. ?

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1 minute ago, All The Aces said:

Too late Mardi and as I have said previously I don't tip.

The reason I mentioned it was on the basis of what I posted earlier in this thread on as to how I do analysis re video's (which you said you don't do) and how an example like this can help someone for the future.    

That way you could find it yourself and back it prior to the race and at value as the opening odds were very good. ?

I might have watched the videos and found 30 horses just as unlucky. I don't even know which horse you are referring to since I don't know what 'just outside the track record' means.

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1 minute ago, All The Aces said:

I am sure 99.9% of most people would be easily able to figure it out.   

Oh ok. My bad.

I had been thinking you must have been referring to Free To Shine. Though up in grade, up in distance, had had some wide runs previously (so must have been further enhanced from those according to some), and great value at SP 50s on betfair. I priced it at 6.80. 

It didn't seem to fit your comments about down in grade or unlucky particularly etc. But does fit in with being about the closest to the track record. Maybe you can correct me. But that was a beauty I agree. I hope you chose betfair rather than the TABs/corporates.

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Just did another check and yep, it certainly looks to me like Free To Shine was the closest to the fastest time at Awapuni for distance of race yesterday. 

Maybe you can help me understand how you decided this horse was unlucky last start or down in grade? Good bet though, but I didn't need to see any video to find it.

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2 hours ago, mardigras said:

Just did another check and yep, it certainly looks to me like Free To Shine was the closest to the fastest time at Awapuni for distance of race yesterday. 

Maybe you can help me understand how you decided this horse was unlucky last start or down in grade? Good bet though, but I didn't need to see any video to find it.

Wasn't close at all Mardi, over a full second off the track record. 

Try again. 

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7 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

Wasn't close at all Mardi, over a full second off the track record. 

Try again. 

I don't want to sound dismissive. But I think you may have some facts wrong. Free To Shine was 1.01 seconds outside the record for 1300m. Nothing else was even within 0.3 seconds of that variance. Maybe you should just tell us your answer, and then I can tell you why 'not'. 

The reason I mention that horse is that it was on the basis of what I posted earlier in this thread as to how I do analysis re times (which you said you only partially consider) and how an example like this can help someone for the future.  And a horse that before Saturday was a maiden. 

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1:01 is a full second over the record as I stated Mardi so no fact wrong there.

According to the Race website the track record for 1200m at Awapuni is held by Red Cent set on 17/12/1994 at 1:08:69.

The horse I am referring to ran 1:08:84 yesterday which is less than .3 variance.

Perhaps it is you who should be checking his facts. 

 

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4 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

 

1:01 is a full second over the record as I stated Mardi so no fact wrong there.

According to the Race website the track record for 1200m at Awapuni is held by Red Cent set on 17/12/1994 at 1:08:69.

The horse I am referring to ran 1:08:84 yesterday which is less than .3 variance.

Perhaps it is you who should be checking his facts. 

 

I think my facts are fine.

Maybe you should look up Gift Of Power. 

Are you sure you are not Thomass's brother? 

The good news is that you said 99.9% of people would have worked that out - which is what I work to. I'm betting that most people I bet against are doing what every one else does.

The race website has a number of times that are simply out of date. At least 3 and possibly more are incorrect.

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