Freda Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thomass said: Soz Freda...what part of the Grassi philosophy do you support again? 'Invest' on 'Value' on H11 Whanganui rails runners...ignore Course Specialists...ignore unlucky, wide without cover et el... ...or REDZEL's trainer was wrong that it needs a Hood to perform? Or all of the above? I make up my own mind and don't take advice from ANYONE. And I do ok....apart from the fact that I am very poor, and therefore the amounts I can put on are very small. Hence I have to look for value all the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 It is totally pointless. Your last posts have totally confirmed you are a fraud. You aren't what you claim. You're a sad loser that makes a lot of crap up. A simple screenshot. But you couldn't. There is no point responding to someone that is a fake. Mr fraud. I'm loving putting up all your blue print horses elsewhere. Sharing the facts, not post race mumbo jumbo bullshit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, Freda said: I make up my own mind and don't take advice from ANYONE. And I do ok....apart from the fact that I am very poor, and therefore the amounts I can put on are very small. Hence I have to look for value all the time. And good on you too... ..but you were suggesting I should give up the argument that superior form in inferior races isn't a 'thang'? HK has exactly the same Ratings Based system as we have... ...and as each Band level strengthens...so to do the times Thats almost my whole basis of Form Analysis... Grasi however...works on the basis that he can Benchmark NZ Tracks so well that it's like running every race on the same course... ...and of course fastest times/sectionals win The massive problems with that are too numerous... ..a few weeks back the Hawera track ran on a D5...same as last year...yet the times were out by at least 7L and as far as 12L...big red light right there and indicative of how problematic his 'speed' ratings are... ...oh and then he won't add time for things like unlucky, without cover et rl But by now you know that...and you'll also know that a few unlucky runs where ability is improving as a horse matures... ...won't be recognised in his 'analysis'...but it's in mine... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Thomass said: And good on you too... ..but you were suggesting I should give up the argument that superior form in inferior races isn't a 'thang'? HK has exactly the same Ratings Based system as we have... ...and as each Band level strengthens...so to do the times Thats almost my whole basis of Form Analysis... Grasi however...works on the basis that he can Benchmark NZ Tracks so well that it's like running every race on the same course... ...and of course fastest times/sectionals win The massive problems with that are too numerous... ..a few weeks back the Hawera track ran on a D5...same as last year...yet the times were out by at least 7L and as far as 12L...big red light right there and indicative of how problematic his 'speed' ratings are... ...oh and then he won't add time for things like unlucky, without cover et rl But by now you know that...and you'll also know that a few unlucky runs where ability is improving as a horse matures... ...won't be recognised in his 'analysis'...but it's in mine... Wasnt suggesting you should give up your opinions....just stop ramming them down everyone's neck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 11 hours ago, Thomass said: ...and of course fastest times/sectionals win The massive problems with that are too numerous... ..a few weeks back the Hawera track ran on a D5...same as last year...yet the times were out by at least 7L and as far as 12L...big red light right there and indicative of how problematic his 'speed' ratings are... I thought you might have figured by now that you have dug a big enough hole for yourself with your own ridiculous theories. You should stick with them before you decide you know how others' work. Of course you are correct that the fastest time always wins, but not the fastest sectionals. Two very different things. And if you think that the Hawera example has anything to do with how speed ratings are done, you need to go back to speed ratings 101 once you get through your primary remedial reading and maths classes. I don't know anyone doing them who would compare times based on the official track rating. I certainly wouldn't and I don't know exactly how mardi does his but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't either. As far as I know, all speed ratings are adjusted by the actual times run, not the official track condition, so if they are 7-12l different for the same or comparable horses, then they would be adjusted by that/those amounts to calibrate them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 21 hours ago, Freda said: Wasnt suggesting you should give up your opinions....just stop ramming them down everyone's neck. Oh cheers for that...I was simply returning ramming! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Oh cheers for that...I was simply returning ramming! What's that Mr Fraud. No one else has been insisting on how they have the answers to make money from punting except you. Which you repeat usually with your usual rants including post race winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 12 hours ago, curious said: I thought you might have figured by now that you have dug a big enough hole for yourself with your own ridiculous theories. You should stick with them before you decide you know how others' work. Of course you are correct that the fastest time always wins, but not the fastest sectionals. Two very different things. And if you think that the Hawera example has anything to do with how speed ratings are done, you need to go back to speed ratings 101 once you get through your primary remedial reading and maths classes. I don't know anyone doing them who would compare times based on the official track rating. I certainly wouldn't and I don't know exactly how mardi does his but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't either. As far as I know, all speed ratings are adjusted by the actual times run, not the official track condition, so if they are 7-12l different for the same or comparable horses, then they would be adjusted by that/those amounts to calibrate them. Oh yea "dic theories" Like yours that gave you amazing prices...Harengawe 55/1...wins at 7's...Polly Grey 45/1...wins at 11's...and the Shark 33/1...among other gems How did you arrive at such dic prices?? Of course you're a slave to the Beyer Speed figures...something that's impossible to reference here with any accuracy...hence your amazing prices... So iron stain.... ...to calibrate a 'Speed' rating when a track is so obviously wrong..requires manual input...which isn't about to happen...when you're working to an accurate algorithmic scale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 (edited) 9 hours ago, Thomass said: Oh yea "dic theories" Like yours that gave you amazing prices...Harengawe 55/1...wins at 7's...Polly Grey 45/1...wins at 11's...and the Shark 33/1...among other gems How did you arrive at such dic prices?? Yip. Sometimes my prices are way out though I don't see what was wrong with the Shark 33/1. Never looked like winning. While I am always trying to make the frequency or quantum of those errors less, it's not a big deal to me. All I care is that on average my pricing is more accurate than the market's. There will always be errors and outliers. And I note that those prices were made public BEFORE the races. 9 hours ago, Thomass said: Of course you're a slave to the Beyer Speed figures...something that's impossible to reference here with any accuracy...hence your amazing prices... Sorry. I haven't used Beyer speed figures since the early 90s so that's dead wrong. Not much use using something that is available to all the competition. Pretty easy these days to improve on them. You have to really. Or at least use them smarter. 9 hours ago, Thomass said: ...to calibrate a 'Speed' rating when a track is so obviously wrong..requires manual input...which isn't about to happen...when you're working to an accurate algorithmic scale NOPE. Don't see how you come to that conclusion. Don't pay any attention to the track rating when I do speed figures. They are based on actual times, not penetrometer readings or some other type of track rating. Has no bearing on it and does not necessarily require any manual input either. Just the assessment of times cf. expected times and I do that on a race by race basis. I don't try and attribute the cause of variances to track ratings, blinkers, class of race, whether they've aerated the track, there was a head wind, or that some act of god has occurred changing the elevation of the straight. Track ratings are for the whole day usually aren't they or do you get them and adjust for them race by race? Don't pay anymore attention to them than trainers' or anyone else's opinion. Edited November 14, 2019 by curious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 Yep and my last 4 tips on here of 2 Tris a quin and a winner...IN ONE...were BEFORE the races as well..so don't give me that shit... This is very obvious I would have thought.. So you do Speed figures...one horse has raced on a D5 and another has run an equal speed figure on the same incorrectly rated track...it was an actual S8 to Standard times according to Neil Davis.. ...he adjusts his...You give both horses the same 'speed' rating for the race? My opinion is your 'speed' rating is f'd and it's giving algorithms a bad name... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Thomass said: Yep and my last 4 tips on here of 2 Tris a quin and a winner...IN ONE...were BEFORE the races as well..so don't give me that shit... I thought you didn't try and beat your own drum having selected 2 $2 winners and a couple of $6 saver winners (from 5 other runners). Wow, you're incredible. No wonder you're supposedly NZs most prolific tipper of thoroughbred winners - at value, Mr Fraud, even though on here you claim you don't do tips. Odd. Edited November 14, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 (edited) That's right..9 Horses mentioned adds up to 2 Tris, a quin and a winner in moi's Maths brain..IN ONE 170,000/1 all up wasn't it? Oh I should have mentioned NOT FOR FREE... ...would you like to become a client? Yesterday was just average...until the last... Max units at 18's was very tidy for a drop back horse and TOTAL Course Specialist... ...those AF Heart neddys next up run surprisingly well...why don't you do a search on your stats to see just how well? Im told relly relly well...maybe it's the Quinine they give them that lights a light in the old ticker? Run a check it'd be relly interesting thanks Edited November 14, 2019 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooncoin Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 You Professionals need to get into a ring for charity! I'll supply the tonic water? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 hours ago, Thomass said: Yep and my last 4 tips on here of 2 Tris a quin and a winner...IN ONE...were BEFORE the races as well..so don't give me that shit... This is very obvious I would have thought.. So you do Speed figures...one horse has raced on a D5 and another has run an equal speed figure on the same incorrectly rated track...it was an actual S8 to Standard times according to Neil Davis.. ...he adjusts his...You give both horses the same 'speed' rating for the race? My opinion is your 'speed' rating is f'd and it's giving algorithms a bad name... I didn't know Neil's ratings were speed ratings. So Neil adjusts his speed ratings by the official track condition or by his assessment of the differential based on actual times? I suspect it is the latter and the official track condition has nothing to do with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 12/11/2019 at 3:34 PM, Thomass said: Exactly...without explaining your raisin de tear...moi does and doesn't expect 1000 pats and sycophantic hesi bow wows... My tipping record stands on its own...last 4 selections...2 tris a q and a winner...IN ONE Now believe me...if a neddy has been racing in superior class with distinction.....this directly relates to its superior chance in an inferior race...wtf knew? Nothing is more certain... ...the VALUE component then kicks in...especially in NZ conditions...When said superior performing neddy has been racing in UNSUITABLE circumstances... i.e. ISKANDER...recent racing on unsuitable wet tracks...previously an excellent 3L effort in an MAAT on a Premier day after being used up early from a wide draw...hitting the lead 300 out and weakening slightly...totally understandable Wayyyy over the odds mid weak at 30's Thats what you call investing on VALUE neddys with SUPERIOR form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 (edited) On 12/11/2019 at 3:34 PM, Thomass said: ...the VALUE component then kicks in...especially in NZ conditions...When said superior performing neddy has been racing in UNSUITABLE circumstances... i.e. ISKANDER...recent racing on unsuitable wet tracks...previously an excellent 3L effort in an MAAT on a Premier day after being used up early from a wide draw...hitting the lead 300 out and weakening slightly...totally understandable Wayyyy over the odds mid weak at 30's Thats what you call investing on VALUE neddys with SUPERIOR form Awesome stuff here btw. Just post a screenshot of your Iskander bet to verify please that you came to that conclusion pre-race. Get it from someone else's account if need be. Anything to help you avoid the ongoing fraud label. Edited November 15, 2019 by curious 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 What a surprise, not a farking thing from you Tommy. Everyone on here knows you are a complete bullshit wanker. Stop posting your after the race farking crap, no one appreciates a knowitall after the race wanker which you are. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Sorry Tommy, I know that was a bit harsh for someone whom wont be let out of the ward till Monday Morning. Gives you plenty of time to find Saturdays bets of course, good luck T, looking forward to Mondays winners. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, barryb said: What a surprise, not a farking thing from you Tommy. Everyone on here knows you are a complete bullshit wanker. Stop posting your after the race farking crap, no one appreciates a knowitall after the race wanker which you are. You know what will arrive later. So not for you barry, just for him, pretty easy guineas - and obviously I backed the winner - is that how it goes? I guess I'm allowed to claim the first 4 now. Edited November 16, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 On 16/11/2019 at 10:53 AM, curious said: Awesome stuff here btw. Just post a screenshot of your Iskander bet to verify please that you came to that conclusion pre-race. Get it from someone else's account if need be. Anything to help you avoid the ongoing fraud label. Oh my.... So you're not satisfied that I posted my 2 Hundy into 10k proof either... ....and that "every dog has its day" narrative that your alma mater Massey Uni Don Grassi spins is what gets you excited? ...something tells moi if I continually post my successes you'd never be happy? Suffice to say my BP has continually spruiked form in MAAT races back to mid weak maiden events...it's on record... I gave ISKANDER an allowance for drawing wide and having to be used up early... ..Its energy sapping that...on a PREMIER Day...with the pressure on...they're all trying Not so much on a mid weak day though... Its conterintuitive to think anything else...but you love beating your heart to the beat of a different drum... You stay with every start is the same...no maturing improvement...they're machines... right? next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Thomass said: Suffice to say my BP has continually spruiked form in MAAT races back to mid weak maiden events...it's on record... Certainly has post race. Not sure I've seen any winners pre race. Clearly that isn't important to a fraud like you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Certainly has post race. Not sure I've seen any winners pre race. Clearly that isn't important to a fraud like you. Yes you "low life scum" that 10K was purely the BP... As were the TIPPING MASTERCLASS selections 2 Tris, a q and a winner....ALL 9 selections coming in...a Guinness Record 170,000/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Yes you "low life scum" that 10K was purely the BP... As were the TIPPING MASTERCLASS selections 2 Tris, a q and a winner....ALL 9 selections coming in...a Guinness Record 170,000/1 Just more crap and lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Fact -have a look at Toms Cox plate predictions and stop being a sook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Fred said: Fact -have a look at Toms Cox plate predictions and stop being a sook I don't do sook. And I certainly have no issue with his Cox plate selections. What's your point? I haven't disputed any fact there. The rest of his post is crap and lies. It's what he does very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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