Mick Guerin on Restrictions

[Brodie]

4 minutes ago, Brodie said:

 

You gone quiet MardiGras???

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, Brodie said:

You gone quiet MardiGras???

Quiet about what. I've certainly never stated you weren't restricted. 

What that has to do with the discussion is beyond me.

Edited December 7, 2020 by mardigras

[mikeynz]

Just now, Karrots said:

I don't know. I can see both points of view. I think Brodie is saying it's not fair being restricted. Which quite frankly, I can see why he is saying that. 

MG is saying the TAB is a business which would want to limit losses, which makes sense. And then offered up alternative ways to still get bets on. 

On a positive note, Chief the site seems to be smoking along quite nicely. Lots of different topics to read and contribute to. Nice 🙌

I remember not that long ago I think every fixed odd bet had a limit on them at the TAB website,you just clicked to put your stake/bet amount and it would say how much is the maximum,dont seem to do it now,maybe it's the punter being restricted or maybe everyone is restricted to balance the books,that bet is 6 to1 on a dog race,a hundred dollars winning 600,probably not that much in the total take for this sort of race

[mardigras]

 

1 minute ago, Karrots said:

I don't know. I can see both points of view. I think Brodie is saying it's not fair being restricted. Which quite frankly, I can see why he is saying that. 

MG is saying the TAB is a business which would want to limit losses, which makes sense. And then offered up alternative ways to still get bets on. 

On a positive note, Chief the site seems to be smoking along quite nicely. Lots of different topics to read and contribute to. Nice 🙌

Yes, but being restricted - he might think is unfair. But it is highly likely the same business practice for all punters. If you meet whatever their criteria is, you will face what they deem to be a suitable restriction. So he isn't being treated differently - he's just unhappy that he falls under the process that has resulted in changes to his outcomes when betting. 

It's would be like me saying Betfair treats me differently. I pay different amounts to betfair than other punters. I'm being treated the same as them, but meet some criteria that changes outcomes for me.

[mikeynz]

2 minutes ago, mikeynz said:

I remember not that long ago I think every fixed odd bet had a limit on them at the TAB website,you just clicked to put your stake/bet amount and it would say how much is the maximum,dont seem to do it now,maybe it's the punter being restricted or maybe everyone is restricted to balance the books,that bet is 6 to1 on a dog race,a hundred dollars winning 600,probably not that much in the total take for this sort of race

Taking same bet in melbourne cup,with bigger pool probably fine

[Brodie]

8 minutes ago, mikeynz said:

I remember not that long ago I think every fixed odd bet had a limit on them at the TAB website,you just clicked to put your stake/bet amount and it would say how much is the maximum,dont seem to do it now,maybe it's the punter being restricted or maybe everyone is restricted to balance the books,that bet is 6 to1 on a dog race,a hundred dollars winning 600,probably not that much in the total take for this sort of race

$100 is not the way I want to wager.

Fact is that the TAB do not want me wagering and yet their wastage of the punters money on themselves is Ok!

 

 

 

 

[Mehe]

31 minutes ago, Brodie said:

The photo clearly shows my restriction or are you going to continue to call Brodie a fraud?.

Anyway I have wasted enough time on you as you are just a troller!

So go put your money on the tote and you will get more 

Don't say thats silly idea as you will get more money wont you

[mikeynz]

Brodie if you are restricted what's the max you could bet fixed on a race at Manawatu today,are you restricted betting on sport,could you stack a lot on a soccer game over 1.5 goals with 20 to play?

Or head to head a game of rugby,basketball,what about the gallops.

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, mikeynz said:

Brodie if you are restricted what's the max you could bet fixed on a race at Manawatu today,are you restricted betting on sport,could you stack a lot on a soccer game over 1.5 goals with 20 to play?

Or head to head a game of rugby,basketball,what about the gallops.

Mikey, $200 and then they slash the odds so  not worth having another go even if I could get on!

Not sure about Sports betting currently as I dont generally bother.

At the stage where it just isnt worth the effort.

Yes I go on about it, but there is a reason for that!

As for betting on the tote as some say, it is not feasible if you are wanting to put a reasonable amount on.

Been there done that years ago.

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Yes I go on about it, but there is a reason for that!

As for betting on the tote as some say, it is not feasible if you are wanting to put a reasonable amount on.

Been there done that years ago.

So you seem to be suggesting that before fixed odds was introduced, you couldn't operate in the manner you wanted to. Then along came fixed odds, and you thought they shouldn't have any rules around what they would accept and what they wouldn't. And now you're aggrieved. 

Poor poor Brodie - doesn't seem to like the rules of the game. 

[Mikie]

I’m not calling you a fraud Brodie, but I’m beginning to doubt that you are indeed a Restricted Punter

It appears you think that getting a message like you have screen shot makes you a Restricted Punter

It doesn’t, if it did nearly everyone I know is a Restricted Punter

Thats merely a bet that the TAB won’t take and is common if you are having a Fixed Odds bet early on

A Restricted Punter, for example Mr G.Beirne, is someone who has got a letter from the TAB telling them that they are a Restricted Punter

If you don’t have that letter Brodie you may not be a fraud, but you may be full of crap

Mikie

Edited December 8, 2020 by Mikie

[Mikie]

1 minute ago, Brodie said:

Ok Mikie,

I do not give a rats what you think, especially considering your history!

It is not a status that I want, that being restricted, I would prefer otherwise.

Anyway, better things to do than discuss things with people that are not honest!

You are missing the point Brodie

Most posters on this thread don’t appear to believe that you are restricted

Please prove it

Mikie

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, Mikie said:

No, I suggest the screen shots are the same as lots of other people get

Oh ok that supports the theory that there are punters (plural) that are restricted.

7 minutes ago, Mikie said:

Hr must have got a letter correct?

Otherwise how does he know he is a a Restricted Punter

Why would the TAB send him a letter?  When they can convey the message through the system?  We all know TAB NZ is stupid but I doubt even they would expend unnecessary overhead.

 

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, mardigras said:

don't recall commenting on this.

I was referring to your reference to standard business practice not letters per se.

However I don't think sending a letter would be standard business practice in this case.

Why would you when you can convey the restriction through the system and create the impression that it is pool or risk related rather than individual.   Otherwise you would have people on forums comparing letters.

[Mikie]

17 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Oh ok that supports the theory that there are punters (plural) that are restricted.

Why would the TAB send him a letter?  When they can convey the message through the system?  We all know TAB NZ is stupid but I doubt even they would expend unnecessary overhead.

 

If the TAB hasn’t sent him a letter then he isn’t a Restricted Punter

He is just one of the thousands who try to bet too early on Fixed Odds and can’t get as much on as they want

Brodie has held himself out to be a Restricted Punter, note the capitals, who has a limit set on what he can win with any and every bet

Since I don’t know who Brodie is I can’t judge the veracity of his assertion, so I’d like to see proof

The screen shots aren’t proof, if I post a screen shot tomorrow that has a winning component of $300, would you then just accept I am restricted to that amount of potential winnings on every bet?

If so I’ll fix that assumption by posting a second screenshot

Mikie

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

It's all very well suggesting people think for themselves. It's likely delusional thinking that some organisation that doesn't know you from a bar of soap has decided to treat you differently to everyone else.

NZ isn't that big.  I would say it would be delusional to think that they didn't know him.  Afterall they have his name, date of birth, address and TAB wagering history at their fingertips.

Not only that they have the ability to data match across other industry records e.g. horse ownership.

[Mikie]

45 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

So you are assuming that someone is misinforming?  Ask yourself what benefit is it to the misinformer?

Ask yourself, given that it is universally agreed that some punters are restricted, why wouldn't Brodie or Fat Freddy down the road be one of them?

Sadly we are living in an era where we have stopped thinking for ourselves.

Fat Freddy might be Restricted. If he comes on this Forum and says he is Restricted then I ‘ll read his other posts and form an opinion as to whether to accept his statement as a fact or not

I’ve read Brodie’s posts. I’m not prepared to accept his assertion as a fact. I think that he can’t remember some days which side of the fence he is on in some topics

Mikie

 

[curious]

14 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Not only that they have the ability to data match across other industry records e.g. horse ownership.

Really? Can they legally do that?

[Happy Sunrise]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

So if it happens for other punters that doesn't discount Brodies assertion that he is restricted.

I have no doubt Brodie is restricted. I also have no doubt Brodie is (was) at the top of the TAB hit list because of his past performances where he took them to the cleaners on a consistent basis. This was validated years ago on Channel X in a discussion where his claims were supported by a very respected poster who knew of Brodie.

I just think a lot of punters are restricted these days to varying degrees. It gets very frustrating trying to get a bet on sometimes and this is why I called Mick Guerin's claim out last week as a cash bet at the TAB does not entitle you to have the bet of your choice. Far from it.

[NZRacing]

Sadly the NZ TAB over the past few years and today are so for behind knowing how to operate a successful betting Agency it's a joke. As a monopoly they should be offering a better service than what they do. Mate of mine is restricted and was told if he bets 1 or 2 minutes out from a race he will get more on, no bookmaking firm that knows how to operate well does that. You offer a restricted punter larger bets on opening when your book % is at its highest point and then you adjust your market to compensate the price change to help and balance the book on the restricted punters bet. Basically if you think he is restricted because the punter is a smartie use his betting knowledge to re-adjust what might be a pricing error eg opened too long. You don't give the punter a shit return then use his info to right your pricing stuff up. I think any smart punter knows fully well the management of the TAB as far as punting experience and knowledge go is laughable.  The silly bastards don't want nz punters betting overseas yet treat them like imbeciles yeah that will work.

The NZ TAB has never been that quick to catch on to how wagering operates in the real world. The only thing they seem to catch onto is when they think "ohh its 10:00am morning tea time, then ohh noon lunchtime, then ohh 3:00pm afternoon tea and finally ohhs its  5:01pm I should have left work 1 min ago.

If you want a monopoly situation act like you know how to opererate as one firstly by servicing your customers better.     

Probably would rate as one if not #1 the worst betting organisation in the World. A $50,000,000 betting platform  plus $17 mill a year to operate then $#^ off your customers yes that will help get a return on the platform costs and help profit, yeah right muppets.      

[Happy Sunrise]

10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

So what is "untrue" about these facts:

1. You co-wrote one chapter of 15 pages in a 400 page book;
2. At the time you were an IT consultant specialising in SQL databases;
3. Your co-writer was a Senior Lecturer in Finance i.e. a specialist in the subject of the book;
4. There were 31 "co-writers" (contributors).

As I said I'll leave it up to others to decide whether or not you have embellished.  In my opinion it is clear that you have.  Just like you posted "I often bet on horses paying 50's and 100's" and make a profit!

What are you doing? Is this necessary?

 

[NZRacing]

Quote

Co-wrote. 

Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets (cambridge.org)

Are you going to ask for proof of every statement I have made. Going to be a long day.

Surely when you made the statement, you would have some proof. No? Nothing?

I call bullshit on that claim with the proof that anyone who had any input into a paper like that would know the NZ TAB is Clueless in fixed odds wagering. Co wrote ha ha yeah right.

[Chief Stipe]

3 minutes ago, NZRacing said:

Sadly the NZ TAB over the past few years and today are so for behind knowing how to operate a successful betting Agency it's a joke. As a monopoly they should be offering a better service than what they do. Mate of mine is restricted and was told if he bets 1 or 2 minutes out from a race he will get more on, no bookmaking firm that knows how to operate well does that. You offer a restricted punter larger bets on opening when your book % is at its highest point and then you adjust your market to compensate the price change to help and balance the book on the restricted punters bet. Basically if you think he is restricted because the punter is a smartie use his betting knowledge to re-adjust what might be a pricing error eg opened too long. You don't give the punter a shit return then use his info to right your pricing stuff up. I think any smart punter knows fully well the management of the TAB as far as punting experience and knowledge go is laughable.  The silly bastards don't want nz punters betting overseas yet treat them like imbeciles yeah that will work.

The NZ TAB has never been that quick to catch on to how wagering operates in the real world. The only thing they seem to catch onto is when they think "ohh its 10:00am morning tea time, then ohh noon lunchtime, then ohh 3:00pm afternoon tea and finally ohhs its  5:01pm I should have left work 1 min ago.

If you want a monopoly situation act like you know how to opererate as one firstly by servicing your customers better.     

Probably would rate as one if not #1 the worst betting organisation in the World. A $50,000,000 betting platform  plus $17 mill a year to operate then $#^ off your customers yes that will help get a return on the platform costs and help profit, yeah right muppets.      

On the nail with that post.  Also it doesn't help that there is ample evidence to show that they are selective in who receives good customer deals and those that don't.  A forensic investigation should be forthcoming.

[Chief Stipe]

I've moved the BS to this Topic in The Vent.

If some wish to continue to engage off this Topic then do so there.

 

[NZRacing]

If the average win fixed pool on gallops is 20k give a punter 10% bet of that hold to win, same applies to trots and dogs relevant to their individual pools. The deal is they have to bet within 4 -6 hours of book opening.

If as a bookmaking operation you can't balance your book to reduce liability on an opening book % of around 130% (15-10% over-run in closing odds) move on.

If your odds are near enough on a 130% market and you offer a customer to bet early 10% of average pool hold that should be good wagering practice. Sack your pricing team if your running scared thinking punters are smarter than them. Running scared on a 15% early market overrun early is a bad look.

Mate of mine rung the other day to say his bet got cut he is a mug punter, bookies would be lining up to take his betting and that's for anything he wanted on.   

As you would I have given him a bookie to phone overseas who will look after him as he should be. I got him some good service organised only loser is the NZ Racing  Industry who will lose around 300k a year in turnover. Ha no wonder they want a fee from aussie bookies they are getting all their customers.  

Just as a sideline I have read over the years Brodies posts re his betting cuts (i don't know the guy at all) where people dont believe his treatment re bet cuts I believe him 100% as I know too many in the same situation. Remember as my comment above points out you dont need to be  a winning customer to get your bets cut (jesus that sounds stupid but then again we are talking the NZ TAB) 

Ha ha a losing customer gets bets cut do they want to make money or just keep making themselves look so out of depth in the wagering world. Either

 that or the NZ TAB are making enough money aleady.

Edited December 8, 2020 by NZRacing