curious Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 You are so full of S%#T Thommo. I'm not talking about HK. We are talking about NZ. Yes, there is a clear difference in HK but where is your data/analysis showing that there is a difference between tiers in NZ. I can't find any evidence and evidently neither can you or you'd surely just post it, if it existed, wouldn't you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Thomass said: Alors...burp...if our best trainers with their best steeds target the bigger money races ipso f in facto they'll be going faster than midweek shit races. Ipso facto, of course they'd do that since it's no harder to win a 22k race on Saturday than a 10k one mid week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, curious said: You are so full of S%#T Thommo. I'm not talking about HK. We are talking about NZ. Yes, there is a clear difference in HK but where is your data/analysis showing that there is a difference between tiers in NZ. I can't find any evidence and evidently neither can you or you'd surely just post it, if it existed, wouldn't you? Onya mate...it's taken you years but you've finally admitted a'population' of C 3's will beat a 'population' of C4's in HK on average Imagine if you can, like moi, benchmarking across grades in NZ, the fact some like certain courses, wet/dry tracks, unluckys et el... ...and ending up with a 'Benchmark' rating for moi... You must have rocks in your noggin if you think a 30k maiden on Premier day will have the same Benchmark standard as a mid week maiden... And the same goes for an R65 mid weeker... Its called Tiered racing...and it works here... 10k R65 has a weaker Benchmark than a Prem R65 where all the gun trainers target their faster horses Who knew they'd do that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 (edited) I don't give a stuff about your benchmark ratings and where did I ever say that there wasn't a difference between C3s and C4s in HK? So you have no data, analysis or evidence that a Prem R65 is any stronger than a 10k R65 in NZ? It's just your distorted opinion. Who knew? Edited December 11, 2020 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, curious said: I don't give a stuff about your benchmark ratings and where did I ever say that there wasn't a diffence between C3s and C4s in HK? So you have no data, analysis or evidence that a Prem R65 is any stronger than a 10k R65 in NZ? Who knew? Hilarious stuff.... You and your bf constantly stated "population stats don't work" Whats a population of C3's called then? A gaggle and C4's a giggle? A gaggle beats a giggle....ok? The same goes for a Group of black type 3yo's racing back to a mid week Benchmark...or an MAAT now in a mid weak maiden A 'population' of MAAT's will on average be FAR better benchmarked than a mid weak Maiden Who knew? If the HK data shows a diffence between Class's....ipso f in facto the same happens here... Its simply counterintuitive to come to any other conclusion...therefore the only proof I need to share with you are my betting accounts... Which I've done previously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 (edited) I didn't say there was no difference between classes. Can't you read? I said there was no difference between the same class, e.g., an R65, whether it's Wednesday or Saturday and 10k or 25k which you claimed there was. Edited December 11, 2020 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, curious said: I didn't say there was no difference between classes. Can't you read? I said there was no difference between the same class, e.g., an R65, whether it's Wednesday or Saturday and 10k or 25k which you claimed there was. You are wasting your time Curious. Thomass has never understood this. An R65 is an R65 on any day of the week. You don't have a 'B' Grade R65 on a monday and an 'A' Grade R65 on a Saturday. Certainly the handicapper doesn't see it that way otherwise the system would be even more stuffed up than it is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: You are wasting your time Curious. Thomass has never understood this. An R65 is an R65 on any day of the week. You don't have a 'B' Grade R65 on a monday and an 'A' Grade R65 on a Saturday. Certainly the handicapper doesn't see it that way otherwise the system would be even more stuffed up than it is! Yes. It just pisses me off to see fraudulent claims made about a myth that may mislead readers. So Thommo, please stop it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, curious said: Yes. It just pisses me off to see fraudulent claims made about a myth that may mislead readers. So Thommo, please stop it. Seems the word "fraud" has expanded in its definition! However Curious Thomass isn't alone in his belief. I'm sure some breeders, owners and trainers also adhere to it. That in itself explains some of the problems we see in the industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Seems the word "fraud" has expanded in its definition! As far as I'm aware it means false or untrue. That's what this is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delta Bro Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 9/12/2020 at 1:00 PM, Chief Stipe said: Oh sorry you should have used the sarcasm font - I took you seriously! Quite frankly facilities for punters on course is over rated. Some of the best race meetings I've been to never had them. A choice of two types of beer and either a mince pie, steak pie or a hot dog. The key is providing a good consistent surface to race on and good even fields to encourage the punter to bet more. So what did they serve up at New Zealand's premier thoroughbred racing venue on 5 Dec 2020? A Group 3 race for a stake of $70,000 which had three maidens in a field of 8 runners. Stephen Marsh Cambridge and Graham Richardson Matamata provided two of the maiden runners. They didn't come from Pongakawa farmer Bob McCosh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 hours ago, curious said: I didn't say there was no difference between classes. Can't you read? I said there was no difference between the same class, e.g., an R65, whether it's Wednesday or Saturday and 10k or 25k which you claimed there was. Pffft...this is about basic training knowledge 101 of how to place a horse as well... Its like saying a North Is R 65 horse is the same benchmark as a Sth Islander Absolute rubbish... Lets say a mid week 10k has exactly the same field as a 27K at HQ...btw it never happens Can you imagine a top trainer like Jello Williams having his horse at it's peak for the mid weeker? Of course not...it'll be peeking for the big day...ipso f in facto Itll be going FASTER for its main event...i.e. The 27k race will almost always rate higher than the 10k... who the f knew Jello would do such an audacious thing? FYI When analysing a mid week R 65 after racing in a Prem race I'm using a 0.25 seconds differential Keep the dunces posts coming though guys I love spanking morons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Where is the data supporting the .25 second differential? That's all I'm asking. So since you haven't provided it and I can't find it, I assume it's not there. Just a wrong assumption of yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 The empirical evidence suggests my bank accounts doing very well... ...empirically speaking every trainer knows the next stop for form tailing off as age creeps in is to send them to the South...in the same grade The same requirements for trainers targeting bigger money...instead of piddling 10k races they try harder and keep their best for Premier days.... I.e. they're required to run faster to win in bigger fields This is basic shit C.... Oops, did you think I said EXACTLY .25 every time? It varies, taking into account wide without cover, unluckies et el field numbers of course..as previously stated Now you said you have the Formpro data base as proof... Go ahead and debunk the empirical evidence that Jello is wrong when you say a 10k race is just as hard to win as a Prem race in the same grade... Cant wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 11/12/2020 at 8:27 PM, curious said: Where is the data supporting the .25 second differential? That's all I'm asking. So since you haven't provided it and I can't find it, I assume it's not there. Just a wrong assumption of yours. Where are yee C? So you've got formpro's data base...and I'm guessing why you ain't fronted is due to the fact.... Well we all know why don't we... Its shows you getting PANTSED and Prem days relly relly are faster than Industry days for the same class...wtf knew? You see as a Uni Don you'd know when something is accepted as Hoyle...that it's up to the maverick....YOU...to debunk the accepted hypothesis.... ....or in this case FACT Over to you again McDuff We're all waiting...in fact we can't wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Thomass said: Where are yee C? So you've got formpro's data base...and I'm guessing why you ain't fronted is due to the fact.... Well we all know why don't we... Its shows you getting PANTSED and Prem days relly relly are faster than Industry days for the same class...wtf knew? You see as a Uni Don you'd know when something is accepted as Hoyle...that it's up to the maverick....YOU...to debunk the accepted hypothesis.... ....or in this case FACT Over to you again McDuff We're all waiting...in fact we can't wait Thomass are you that silly that you compare times from different tracks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I don't know why this debate has gone on for soooo long , doesn't matter how fast a horse can go as opposed to another , the single biggest leveler in NZ racing is the jocks . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Huey said: Thomass are you that silly that you compare times from different tracks? This is standard faire amongst the pros now Hue... Each track has a certain standard time for each track condition to end with an overall rating after calibration... Personally I don't do this...I take it as read superior races produce superior horses as long as they've run to my standard taking into account unlucky, wide without cover et el Curious and her boyfriend can't quite get their head around that preferring instead to raw rate it... They're either too lazy or too stupid to make allowances of 0.25 for Premier class back to Industry class...pffffft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Thomass said: This is standard faire amongst the pros now Hue... Each track has a certain standard time for each track condition to end with an overall rating after calibration... Personally I don't do this...I take it as read superior races produce superior horses as long as they've run to my standard taking into account unlucky, wide without cover et el Curious and her boyfriend can't quite get their head around that preferring instead to raw rate it... They're either too lazy or too stupid to make allowances of 0.25 for Premier class back to Industry class...pffffft Thomass you are repeating the same shyte over and over again. Do you have any other songs in you play book? But before I close these repetitive crap down AGAIN can you give us some examples of where North Island horses have moved to the South Island and performed above their rating in comparison to the horses they were racing against? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 hours ago, Huey said: Thomass are you that silly that you compare times from different tracks? Why not? How else can you compare performances? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 hours ago, curious said: Why not? How else can you compare performances? I thought you did your performance assessments within the race? How can you compare times between different tracks when you have no idea what the condition of each track when it was raced? That is you cannot rely on penetrometer readings. For example where do you rate the performance of the maiden that ran 1:07 in a trial at Riccarton versus any other race course in the country? Thomass will tell us that the maiden that runs 1:07 at Riccarton is not as good as any North Island maidens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I thought you did your performance assessments within the race? How can you compare times between different tracks when you have no idea what the condition of each track when it was raced? That is you cannot rely on penetrometer readings. For example where do you rate the performance of the maiden that ran 1:07 in a trial at Riccarton versus any other race course in the country? Thomass will tell us that the maiden that runs 1:07 at Riccarton is not as good as any North Island maidens! Because I can assess the expected times the horses would run and then assess the variance from that. Different tracks are no different than different track conditions to me. I pay no attention to penetrometer readings in that assessment. They are pretty much useless except as one indicator of what is likely. Edited December 14, 2020 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, curious said: Because I can assess the expected times the horses would run and then assess the variance from that. Assessed against what parameters? Benchmarks? I accept different tracks are no different than different track conditions but you must compare performances within each track population. Easy to do in Hong Kong but in NZ? Wouldn't you be stuffed if horses moved entirely randomly amongst all tracks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 hours ago, curious said: Why not? How else can you compare performances? Hang so youre saying you'd compare two runners in the same race last start performances at different tracks based on time i.e. if one ran last start at Trentham and the other at Tauranga as an example and this strategy works for you on the punt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Huey said: Hang so youre saying you'd compare two runners in the same race last start performances at different tracks based on time i.e. if one ran last start at Trentham and the other at Tauranga as an example and this strategy works for you on the punt? Huey - Curious and the ex-DBA rely on processing comparatively large amounts of data and adjusting their algorithms based on what must be subjective assessments of track conditions. They then look for value by pricing fields themselves (most probably automatically using an algorithm based on their assessments) and looking for where the price is overs. Then playing small %'s. For example if a horse they value at 25 to 1 is paying 50 to 1 they will back it. Sounds as boring as bat shit to me. But the ex-DBA tells us he makes money doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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