Flagship uberalles Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Brodie said: When there is a stinking hot favourite take them out, Then frame it from there! They can do anything with a bit of thought, That's exactly what most overseas bookies would do, they always run a book without a red hotpot in the market alongside the full field variety, unfortunately nztab 20yrs behind the times. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 35 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said: they always run a book without a red hotpot in the market alongside the full field variety It is not hard, is it? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 4 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said: It is not hard, is it? seems too hard for brodie so let me open it to anyone reading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Rangatira said: seems too hard for brodie so let me open it to anyone reading Resort but I believe it has gone through to the keeper with you , on this one! Notging too hard for Brodie! To get money invested on the Drivers Challenge all they had to do was take Dex out of the market, Blair as favourite and then whoever else that had a few drives in and then any other driver. Doubt whether there would’ve been that much invested on the challenge initially! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 14 hours ago, Brodie said: Resort but I believe it has gone through to the keeper with you , on this one! Notging too hard for Brodie! To get money invested on the Drivers Challenge all they had to do was take Dex out of the market, Blair as favourite and then whoever else that had a few drives in and then any other driver. Doubt whether there would’ve been that much invested on the challenge initially! which would make blair say 1.12 is that really that much more attractive than the dexter in option 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newmarket Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rangatira said: which would make blair say 1.12 is that really that much more attractive than the dexter in option True, Many would have taken DD to bolster all ups, another 6%. But as Brodie said, NOTGING TO HARD FOR BRODIE! ? He must be a red head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 6 hours ago, Rangatira said: which would make blair say 1.12 is that really that much more attractive than the dexter in option Are you sure about that Rangatira? There were other drivers who had good books as well like Robbie Close etc. He wouldn’t have been anywhere near as short as that!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 6 hours ago, Newmarket said: True, Many would have taken DD to bolster all ups, another 6%. But as Brodie said, NOTGING TO HARD FOR BRODIE! ? He must be a red head. Are you keen on redheads?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brodie said: Are you sure about that Rangatira? There were other drivers who had good books as well like Robbie Close etc. He wouldn’t have been anywhere near as short as that!!!!!!!!!!! i am extremely sure but feel free to show me the math behind your doubts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brodie said: Are you keen on redheads?? providing the carpet matches the drapes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 I would have had orange at $1.25 without dd, that's a decent multi booster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 49 minutes ago, Rangatira said: providing the carpet matches the drapes Always hate the old shagpile carpet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 57 minutes ago, Rangatira said: i am extremely sure but feel free to show me the math behind your doubts I obviously do not set the odds, but Blair would not have been as short as $1.12 Nathan and Matthew Williamson both had a good book of drives and there were others as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brodie said: I obviously do not set the odds, but Blair would not have been as short as $1.12 Nathan and Matthew Williamson both had a good book of drives and there were others as well. what odds would you have had close nathan matty and any other individual driver at brodie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said: I would have had orange at $1.25 without dd, that's a decent multi booster using the original market as a guide any other individual driver was 5 times less likely to win than blair so having blair at 1.25 would have any other individual driver at 6.25 and would enable brodie to back both options and win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 With respect Rangatira, I do not set the markets for fixed odds for harness racing. It is not an exact science and most of the time the Bookies are just guessing and if there is a big punt then they either restrict the amount and then adjust the price. The fact that any other driver may have been 5 times less likely to win than Blair has nothing to do,with it as the market was framed around Dexter clearly winning. Matthew Williamson had a very good book of drives. He had 2 wins which have him 6 points as to Blair’s 11 I think! Matthew also had 4 fourths so he was close up several times but no points. Had the fourth placed horses tried a bit harder then he would have finished very close to Blair even at least drawn. Matthew Williamson and brother Nathan have won numerous drivers challenges over the years including a Forbury and I would be sure that there is no way that Blair would’ve been as short as $1.12 or thereabouts. Only semantics anyway as it never happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rangatira said: using the original market as a guide any other individual driver was 5 times less likely to win than blair so having blair at 1.25 would have any other individual driver at 6.25 and would enable brodie to back both options and win I'm clearly no expert rangi, but that was my dusty view, absolute piss poor option by the tab to run a fav at 1.06 without giving other options in that particular market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, Brodie said: With respect Rangatira, I do not set the markets for fixed odds for harness racing. It is not an exact science and most of the time the Bookies are just guessing and if there is a big punt then they either restrict the amount and then adjust the price. The fact that any other driver may have been 5 times less likely to win than Blair has nothing to do,with it as the market was framed around Dexter clearly winning. Matthew Williamson had a very good book of drives. He had 2 wins which have him 6 points as to Blair’s 11 I think! Matthew also had 4 fourths so he was close up several times but no points. Had the fourth placed horses tried a bit harder then he would have finished very close to Blair even at least drawn. Matthew Williamson and brother Nathan have won numerous drivers challenges over the years including a Forbury and I would be sure that there is no way that Blair would’ve been as short as $1.12 or thereabouts. Only semantics anyway as it never happened. are you sober Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said: I'm clearly no expert rangi, but that was my dusty view, absolute piss poor option by the tab to run a fav at 1.06 without giving other options in that particular market. I am no expert either i was just using the tabs opinion and some maths i would not consider backing dexter at 1.06 or blair at 1.25 with dexter out just not my kind of odds nor would i back someone or their brother for that matter based on their drivers challenge history some of which happened at the track as its just not my kind of logic not saying is logic at all Edited July 22, 2018 by Rangatira Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rangatira said: I am no expert either i was just using the tabs opinion and some maths i would not consider backing dexter at 1.06 or blair at 1.25 with dexter out just not my kind of odds nor would i back someone or their brother for that matter based on their drivers challenge history some of which happened at the track as its just not my kind of logic not saying is logic at all Who brought up drivers challenge history? All I'm saying is why bother with a 1.06 shit odds, why not run a parallel book like a reputable bookie would do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Just now, Flagship uberalles said: Who brought up drivers challenge history? All I'm saying is why bother with a 1.06 shit odds, why not run a parallel book like a reputable bookie would do. brodie but you will have to ask him why haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Flagship uberalles said: Who brought up drivers challenge history? All I'm saying is why bother with a 1.06 shit odds, why not run a parallel book like a reputable bookie would do. the point i am making is it would not look a hell of a lot different on this race and while fave out has merit this race may have been better suited to fave and second fave out based on the tabs original offering 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rangatira said: the point i am making is it would not look a hell of a lot different on this race and while fave out has merit this race may have been better suited to fave and second fave out based on the tabs original offering There is an answer? Don't just take one, take both. It would be more interesting. If the the 3 Williamsons' had reasonably similar books you could have just those 3 or you could do a drivers challenge for those drivers south of the Waitaki so Dex n Blair miss out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Just now, Rangatira said: the point i am making is it would not look a hell of a lot different on this race and while fave out has merit this race may have been better suited to fave and second fave out based on the tabs original offering Maybe, not hard to do a few different markets rather than kill the option from the start... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Rangatira said: are you sober Totally Rangatira, but you could probably drive me to drink! The fact is that Blair’s book of drives was not a helluva lot better than Mathew Williamson’s book of drives on paper. The fact is that Blair is a gifted and talented reinsman, The fact is that the Williamson’s would never have been at $5 in the Drivers Challenge if Dexter was taken out of the Fixed Odds market!! The fact is that both of the Williamson’s drive the Forbury track very well and are often favourites to take out drivers challenges when they drive down south, that is the point I was trying to make. As I say semantics only and got nothing to do with the original posting! Edited July 22, 2018 by Brodie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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