nomates Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Is there a worse track in NZ for a leader bias , it makes for bloody boring viewing and punting . And they are going to chuck 5 60k races at it in a few weeks , more wasted industry money . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Agree , but have to give them credit at least they now have a winning post and the traffic cone has gone back on traffic safety duty. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeynz Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Huey said: Agree , but have to give them credit at least they now have a winning post and the traffic cone has gone back on traffic safety duty. See the amenities fund is still alive and thriving,,maybe another club might get funding for a new door knob Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 23 hours ago, nomates said: Is there a worse track in NZ for a leader bias , it makes for bloody boring viewing and punting . And they are going to chuck 5 60k races at it in a few weeks , more wasted industry money . I'm curious what makes you think it has a leader bias? If it does, so what? That should be evident to owners, trainers and punters? Why would it be a problem if it's just the nature of that track? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomates Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, curious said: I'm curious what makes you think it has a leader bias? If it does, so what? That should be evident to owners, trainers and punters? Why would it be a problem if it's just the nature of that track? For an intelligent guy that is series of stupid questions . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) Well, I don't see it that way. I actually do quite well betting at Ruakaka I think partly because of that belief meaning horses expected to lead being overbet. I backed 3 winners there yesterday, a good day and only one of the 3 led. I tend to think that so called leader biases are more likely because of the way races are run than anything to do with the track. As to my other points, if you believe that the track has a leader bias, why would you take a horse there that can't lead? That doesn't make sense. It would be the same as taking a horse that doesn't like heavy tracks to race in a bog at Trentham for example or if a punter bet on one. It's the nature of the game to try and race and back horses on suitable tracks isn't it? Edited June 12, 2022 by curious 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 I'm no punter...but perception is everything. West Coast tracks are commonly believed to be 'front runners tracks' and everyone goes hell for leather as a result. Horses can and do come from behind and win for that reason. No walk-and-sprint over there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Freda said: I'm no punter...but perception is everything. West Coast tracks are commonly believed to be 'front runners tracks' and everyone goes hell for leather as a result. Horses can and do come from behind and win for that reason. No walk-and-sprint over there. Exactly. From my data, what tends to happens once that perception establishes is that trainers tend to line up more front running type horses at those venues making it more likely that the best horse in any race is a front-runner. Therefore, it becomes a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. The good thing from a punting perspective is that means that on occasion when the best horse is not a front runner, it is much more likely to be at value while still just as likely to win. Edited June 12, 2022 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 10 races 5 leaders won Deploy, Mistress Minx, Smart Rocks, Golden Hue & Tightlign. Kerikeri led then trailed and got up to beat the horse that did lead. Masetto went up at the 1000m to sit second outside the leader and wore him down to win narrowly. Cakebytheocean sat second on the outer and came away to win. So 8 of the 10 races were won by the leader or the horse in second position. That left On Fifth Avenue who settled a handy fifth and Diamond Girl who settled back but came around quickly turning in as the only two winners who were not in the first two in the running. It is a continuing trend at Ruakaka. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, All The Aces said: 10 races 5 leaders won Deploy, Mistress Minx, Smart Rocks, Golden Hue & Tightlign. Kerikeri led then trailed and got up to beat the horse that did lead. Masetto went up at the 1000m to sit second outside the leader and wore him down to win narrowly. Cakebytheocean sat second on the outer and came away to win. So 8 of the 10 races were won by the leader or the horse in second position. That left On Fifth Avenue who settled a handy fifth and Diamond Girl who settled back but came around quickly turning in as the only two winners who were not in the first two in the running. It is a continuing trend at Ruakaka. Your point? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Your point? I think it creates boring racing , well at least not as bad as AWT. But surely no one with a $ on a horse likes to punt and see their horse get back midfield or worse and know they have no chance 200m into a race and then for me it creates a why bother scenario. Of course that's not going to be the impression expert punters like Curious have, who is far better than most at ascertaining how a race is going to pan out. Be interested to know how the experts go about doing that at Ruakaka? Don't want to seem like I'm moaning as we all know Ruakaka has come along way, I just get a bit emotional at Ruakaka now the traffic cone has gone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 I'm afraid I'm not that clever Huey and don't spend a second trying to figure out how a race will be run, what time, where horses might settle or anything like that. There are other clever punters however who do that very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, Huey said: think it creates boring racing , well at least not as bad as AWT. But surely no one with a $ on a horse likes to punt and see their horse get back midfield or worse and know they have no chance 200m into a race and then for me it creates a why bother scenario. In my opinion this issue is due to our Jockey's not being able to assess pace and not putting their horses into a race or a position to win. It isn't easy on any track to sit back on a Soft or Heavy track and expect to storm down the outside in the last 300m. Yet our riders think they can. I agree with Curious. If there is a track related leaders bias at Ruakaka what aspects of the track causes it? I don't see any. Therefore as Curious suggests it is perception by Trainers and Jockey's that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: In my opinion this issue is due to our Jockey's not being able to assess pace and not putting their horses into a race or a position to I don't see any. Therefore as Curious suggests it is perception by Trainers and Jockey's that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. So how does the prophecy go unfulfilled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 49 minutes ago, Huey said: So how does the prophecy go unfulfilled? Perhaps more Jockeys should consider going forward earlier to put themselves in the race. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Perhaps more Jockeys should consider going forward earlier to put themselves in the race. Ryan Elliot's ride on Masetto the other day a good example. No pace on. Went forward at the 1000 3 wide. Flat from the 700. Best horse wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) 17 hours ago, Freda said: I'm no punter...but perception is everything. West Coast tracks are commonly believed to be 'front runners tracks' and everyone goes hell for leather as a result. Horses can and do come from behind and win for that reason. No walk-and-sprint over there. Only had 4 runners on the coast in my life for a win and 3 placings. Most recent raced on the pace. The other 3 settled last and ran home. That's on 3 different tracks including the cack hander. Edited June 12, 2022 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, curious said: Ryan Elliot's ride on Masetto the other day a good example. No pace on. Went forward at the 1000 3 wide. Flat from the 700. Best horse wins. On winter tracks you have to. You just can't expect to make up heaps of ground in the straight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) Diamond Girl another example last week. Last early. Not much pace. Kept going forward 3 and 4 wide the whole way. Wins well. Edited June 12, 2022 by curious 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: On winter tracks you have to. You just can't expect to make up heaps of ground in the straight. You can if if you are superb judge of pace. https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfo/50593/8/Race-Detail.aspx 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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