Chief Stipe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 25 minutes ago, Gammalite said: Mrs McCArthy did a year out DQ once . Currently the other big stable at Menangle has it's figurehead Kerryann Morris out for 6 months DQ with a positive. bad girl Mrs Morris. How very Lucky for Luke McCarthy and Robbie Morris that they both conveniently put the Trainers Licence in theirs wives names over the years, so they take the Disqualification should the need arise 😄. ....no divorce offered as yet.. 😂. Wonder if Grimson and/or Trainor are getting married soon ?😂 Belinda Mcarthy's case was similar to Morris's case where she had the horse for only 20 days and was inconclusive that she administered the prohibited substance. Boldenone was the detected substance - anabolic steroid for treating injured horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gammalite Posted August 28, 2023 Author Share Posted August 28, 2023 (edited) 50 minutes ago, the galah said: I do think you have mentioned the reason that will most discourage wagering on harness racing in parts of australia. That is races where short priced favorites dominate the betting. Emma stewart stable certainly does that in victoria.Who bets on those races with three or 4 emma stewart trained runners in with one paying $1.30. There's just too many good galloping races and football to bet on. that stops the harness racing interest in Aus for a lot of punters. Punters Love Emma Stewart and Allstars runners in the harness world . Because they run true to form. Can't go wrong with Millwood Nike , Akuta etc... lol. Ladies in Red has won 22 (and 5 x 2nds) from 27 starts for Emma. you would be WELL in Front if followed her through. The LOST Storm i'm terrified might beat my mate Queensland horse ' Leap To Fame' in the $2,000,000 Eureka soon next week . He won the QLD derby for Emma by 6 lengths untouched in July . (now 11 wins from 13 starts) think he gets the Pole draw in the Eureka from being the only 3 year old in it !!!. hard to beat.. Emma likewise has many 'picket fence' runners. Serious punters aren't gunna back Country Vic runners mate, and just hope for the best . They're gunna back the good horses in the city . Like Emma's or Allstars. I'm already putting Nz Cup bets on. !! 😉💰🏆 Edited August 28, 2023 by Gammalite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Gammalite said: There's just too many good galloping races and football to bet on. that stops the harness racing interest in Aus for a lot of punters. Punters Love Emma Stewart and Allstars runners in the harness world . Because they run true to form. Can't go wrong with Millwood Nike , Akuta etc... lol. Ladies in Red has won 22 (and 5 x 2nds) from 27 starts for Emma. you would be WELL in Front if followed her through. The LOST Storm i'm terrified might beat my mate Queensland horse ' Leap To Fame' in the $2,000,000 Eureka soon next week . He won the QLD derby for Emma by 6 lengths untouched in July . (now 11 wins from 13 starts) think he gets the Pole draw in the Eureka from being the only 3 year old in it !!!. hard to beat.. Emma likewise has many 'picket fence' runners. Serious punters aren't gunna back Country Vic runners mate, and just hope for the best . They're gunna back the good horses in the city . Like Emma's or Allstars. I'm already putting Nz Cup bets on. !! 😉💰🏆 The betting figures in nz harness show turnovers are nearly always greater on the sunday low key meetings, than the high class meetings at the likes of addington,where you see many all star horses compete. Thats what the turnover figures show . For example a couple of weeks ago the ashburton sunday meeting turned over more for their 8 races than addington did for 9 races ,where you had 3 all star runners start hot favorite. The Nz cup meeting is the exception to the rule,but thats partly because the betting fields then are more even. Edited August 28, 2023 by the galah 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 54 minutes ago, the galah said: The betting figures in nz harness show turnovers are nearly always greater on the sunday low key meetings, than the high class meetings at the likes of addington,where you see many all star horses compete. Thats what the turnover figures show . For example a couple of weeks ago the ashburton sunday meeting turned over more for their 8 races than addington did for 9 races ,where you had 3 all star runners start hot favorite. The Nz cup meeting is the exception to the rule,but thats partly because the betting fields then are more even. Easy fix. Get Entain to run the Fixed Odds book with All Stars excluded. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 (edited) Personally havent bothered to have a go for four weeks or so. Addington fields at the moment are pretty much the same week in week out without the racing at many other tracks! I believe since Entain took over that the Fixed Odds opening prices on the first four or five favourites are far shorter than they used to be especially the place odds! What serious punter is going to be investing $ on harness when you have four or five paying under $1.50 for a place?????? We also dont seem to be hearing on Trackside anymore of any BIG BETS!!! When it was announced these so called big bets, it was a bit weird because I was putting on a helluva lot more than these big bets and yet not announced lol Edited August 28, 2023 by Brodie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 16 hours ago, Brodie said: Personally havent bothered to have a go for four weeks or so. Addington fields at the moment are pretty much the same week in week out without the racing at many other tracks! I believe since Entain took over that the Fixed Odds opening prices on the first four or five favourites are far shorter than they used to be especially the place odds! What serious punter is going to be investing $ on harness when you have four or five paying under $1.50 for a place?????? We also dont seem to be hearing on Trackside anymore of any BIG BETS!!! When it was announced these so called big bets, it was a bit weird because I was putting on a helluva lot more than these big bets and yet not announced lol I have been looking at the fixed odd prices lately and they do seem to be keeping all the favorites a lot shorter than they should be. For example i noticed in that last race at rangiora on trackside the top 5 favorites were all paying a couple of $ less to win on fixed odds, than on the tote as they came up behind the mobile.Thats quite a difference to see every one of the top 5 well under the tote price. It has become a more noticeable pattern and i think the bookies may be working on the theory that keep the horses with any winning chance much shorter than they should be and blow the others out with not much winning chance and who don't get support ,in the last 2 or 3 minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 hours ago, the galah said: I have been looking at the fixed odd prices lately and they do seem to be keeping all the favorites a lot shorter than they should be. For example i noticed in that last race at rangiora on trackside the top 5 favorites were all paying a couple of $ less to win on fixed odds, than on the tote as they came up behind the mobile.Thats quite a difference to see every one of the top 5 well under the tote price. It has become a more noticeable pattern and i think the bookies may be working on the theory that keep the horses with any winning chance much shorter than they should be and blow the others out with not much winning chance and who don't get support ,in the last 2 or 3 minutes. Not sure whether they have a new harness Bookie setting the odds, but whoever it is doesn’t appear to want to attract money to be wagered! when so many are unders on opening, there is just no point even bothering. Easier and more profitable ways of making money without having to do the serious homework. What I do know is that it is not on the best interest of harness racing if they don’t have punters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 9 hours ago, the galah said: I have been looking at the fixed odd prices lately and they do seem to be keeping all the favorites a lot shorter than they should be. For example i noticed in that last race at rangiora on trackside the top 5 favorites were all paying a couple of $ less to win on fixed odds, than on the tote as they came up behind the mobile.Thats quite a difference to see every one of the top 5 well under the tote price. Been like it for years. If you keep an eye on the tote odds you will notice that they reduce closer to the Fixed Odds after the horses have started. Many theories why - time lag to balance overseas bets and or the bookies/computer lay off at the last second. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Exactly Chief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 (edited) 22 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: Been like it for years. If you keep an eye on the tote odds you will notice that they reduce closer to the Fixed Odds after the horses have started. Many theories why - time lag to balance overseas bets and or the bookies/computer lay off at the last second. Its been more noticeable recently in my opinion,thus i think there may have been some change recently,either in method or amounts. But if we assume you are correct and you may well be,then its just another reason why punters are turning their backs on betting on the tote on nz harness racing. Personally i don't believe the overseas bets part of your possible explanation because the amounts invested overseas would not be high and would not effect all 5 favorites in the example i gave. But lets assume your correct about the tab bookies laying off bets held on fixed odds is a possible cause. Why should a punter place a bet when he is doing so knowing that the TAB bookies, by laying off fixed odds bets,can manipulate the tote dividends in the last minute so substantially, that the punter in reality has placed a bet on a horse at a dividend that can change 25% in the last few seconds.A punter who bases his returns on receiving for example a 12% profit overall per $ invested,is now having to factor in a variable of 20% which in all reality may make his betting unprofitable. You have 3 choices currently if you want to place a bet on nz harness. 1) on fixed odds knowing the bookies are running the book based on offering returns which % wise heavily favour them,in other words horses at odds shorter than they should be. Also knowing that if you are one of their customers who has an account they have identified as being able to regularly make a profit,that they are reducing the odds of any horse bet on in that account through their algorithms or notifications their bookies get, of placed bets,even for example that a $20 place bet can cause the tab to reduce the ff win dividend of a horse bet on. 2)you can spread your bet on the tote and fixed odds,knowing there is a pattern that for reasons discussed earlier,which can see dividends change so drastically at the end on the tote portion. 3)There is the option of betting solely on the tote. But just think about how small tote pools are at say a thursday meeting in southland,or say one of those poor turnover,hot favorite dominated races at a higher class meeting at addington. Work it out. If there's say a $4000 total place pool and you,in the last minute put $200 a place on a horse paying $3.If you do the maths your $200 place bet will reduce the tote odds from $3 to $2. Or if you only put $100 a place,your causing the dividend to drop from $3 a place to $2.40. In other words nz harness racing provides punters with many races where its foolish to bet any reasonable amount on the tote,because the pools are that small that any reasonable amount invested is having too great an impact on reducing the returns. Thats why looking to the future,turnovers will not improve. The tab,through there bookies,is operating in a way that is improving the $ return for them,but at the same time driving down the total amount being wagered. Now some may argue that the bookies have every right to do this,as there job is to maximise returns. Anyone who argues that is not seeing the big picture. As i have explained above,the big picture is hastening a cycle in reduction of wagering on nz harness. If people don't believe me,just ask any punter who used to make a reasonable profit out of betting on nz harness. They will tell you 2 things,1)its much harder now than say 2 or 3 years ago to turn a profit and very importantly 2) their total wagering on the tote has dropped significantly. People may say,well thats not me,who cares. Well if you don't care about turnover on harness racing in nz,then in reality you haven't thought about having a sustainable harness industry going forward,whether you realise it or not. Edited August 30, 2023 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 10 hours ago, the galah said: Why should a punter place a bet when he is doing so knowing that the TAB bookies, by laying off fixed odds bets,can manipulate the tote dividends in the last minute so substantially, that the punter in reality has placed a bet on a horse at a dividend that can change 25% in the last few seconds.A punter who bases his returns on receiving for example a 12% profit overall per $ invested,is now having to factor in a variable of 20% which in all reality may make his betting unprofitable. It's worse than the odds changing in the last few seconds. I've seen gallops races run 600m before the tote pools are adjusted. I can't understand why with modern computer systems the odds don't adjust in real time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 (edited) On 28/08/2023 at 7:55 PM, the galah said: The betting figures in nz harness show turnovers are nearly always greater on the sunday low key meetings, than the high class meetings at the likes of addington,where you see many all star horses compete. Thats what the turnover figures show . For example a couple of weeks ago the ashburton sunday meeting turned over more for their 8 races than addington did for 9 races ,where you had 3 all star runners start hot favorite. The Nz cup meeting is the exception to the rule,but thats partly because the betting fields then are more even. According to the hrnz website,the betting figures for last week saw a change in the recent pattern,just to confuse things a bit. Addington on friday night,even with its run of hot favorites,had a higher turnover last week when compared to rangiora on sunday. In fact rangiora on the sunday,with similar fields to ashburton ,couldn't even turnover as much in 10 races as ashburton did with 8 the week before. Edited August 31, 2023 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 3 hours ago, the galah said: According to the hrnz website,the betting figures for last week saw a change in the recent pattern,just to confuse things a bit. Addington on friday night,even with its run of hot favorites,had a higher turnover last week when compared to rangiora on sunday. In fact rangiora on the sunday,with similar fields to ashburton ,couldn't even turnover as much in 10 races as ashburton did with 8 the week before. There were very few patrons on-course apparently last Sunday at Rangiora. The cost of living for many will mean that they haven’t got the discretionary $ to punt or the $ to drive out to Rangiora! To be fair unless you own a horse racing or work in the industry you probably wont bother going out unless it is a beautifully fine day and warm, when you can watch on TV or record and watch later! The TAB also are also not making it worth the while with their restrictions and AML BS that hopefully National/Act will ease up on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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