FeelTheFear

Exactly

At least we all put up the bets before the race.

I am learning heaps from you both. Thank you

Hey Chief, the damned comment wouldn't post. Now it is overdoing it...then again, probably appropriate

Yes, if everybody stopped responding then the thread would make great sense.

Yes, if everybody stopped responding then the thread would make great sense.

Yes, if everybody stopped responding then the thread would make great sense.

there goes the neighbourhood

Yep, knew that was coming. Good while it lasted

we will do our best

no but a special guest (emphasis on special) will no doubt appear soon

Popcorn ready...waiting...5..4..3..2..1

Not a great ride. Behind the leader but wide the whole way, drifted out in to the straight and the jockey didn't persevere with ride. Better than that.

I rated Beeharry on Hoofbeat in race 10 today as a positive factor. Not because of the allowance of 60kg but because he is riding very well this season. I liked the horse without him.

Exactly. As I said previously, I may factor it as a positive if previous use showed improvement but still can't quantify with a figure. It is one of many variables I add in my head to get an overall sense of the horse and possibility of improvement. Adding 10% or 20% because of blinkers is fantasy. It's a minor factor among a sea of other minor factors that may add weight to an overall asessment. What the horse has done previously is the main dish, what it does today is the dessert. The rest a bit of garnish.

I never use blinkers or other gear as such though if a horse shows erratic tendencies in its races and the trainer is astute, I may factor it as a positive in my mind to add to the overall picture. It is never a strong factor as it is still an unknown, unless it has been used successfully before.

I have a spreadsheet that will calculate and let me know the % over. I was using 120%+. I am not an entertainment punter at all, I want to make money ?

I have seen punters write that any price about a winner is good. They don't take into account long term.

yes you wrote it a while ago. I will have a play at barryb's link and see how I go.

One of yours... (i) Assess chances in each race you wish to bet on. (ii) Give runners a % chance of winning (iii) Correlate that % chance to a price (iv) Compare your prices with the prices available for the runner (v) If the price is 10%+ higher than the price you have calculated, write the runner down, with your price and the price available or use a computer. (vi)Do this for 1 month. If after 1 month, you could not back each runner to either win a certain amount or on level stakes and show a profit, then (a) Refine how you assess chance because you have it wrong (b) Repeat points (i) to (vi) until your recorded results result in a profit. I would suggest of at least 5% ROI over the month After you have reached point (b) successfully the first time, repeat the process for another 5 months. As soon as you reach any month that your records do not show a profit. Go back to (a) because you still have the assessment process wrong. Once you have an assessment approach that has won for 6 straight months, you could trial it with real money. A conservative approach would be my suggestion. If after a long period of success, potentially increase stake (within reasonable limits with consideration to the total won to date).

Thanks mate. I have been doing something similar and rating based upon % to field% converted to a market. I have a spreadsheet that then does the work and even tells me how much (%) over the market is. I guess it is getting my market as accurate as possible. I hate not betting a horse that was a dollar under my market when it wins. Will have to take a new look at it.

Thanks mate, appreciate your insight. I never chase losses and have a betting strategy that allows for wins and losses automatically, based upon the bank. I look for the horses that have ability and try and assess current likely fitness. I also look at low mileage maidens. I try to get a feel for what a horse might do. Does it race on the pace? Does it race well fresh? Has it had a recent trial to prepare if fresh? Does it show fighting spirit? Can it finish off races? etc. Blinkers, weight etc I don't worry about. I may take notice of track conditions if enough runs show a preference. Three wins from 5 starts on a good track means bugger all if a horse hasn't raced on other track conditions. Twenty races down the road, that 3 wins (60%) is now 15%. Many things I make a mental note of to get an overall appreciation of the horses profile. I am working on times. Comparison between tracks and track conditions are a challenge. Official class of race I ignore. A Group 3 may be the same group of horses running around in a B82 or less. How the horse raced in that G3 is far more important. Did it race up to it's ability? I am still struggling to frame a market and the best way to go about it. Just some quick thoughts.

Only one for tomorrow at Cromwell. Race 10 #1 Hoofbeat. Three wins from 17 starts and distance will suit. Can race on pace or lead. Finishes off race well. Went out for spell Apr. 2018. Ran 3rd at trials 01 Oct. before racing 20 Oct. at Ashburton. Right hand plate needed to be removed at barrier, tough run wide before fading 15.1 lengths from winner. Next and latest start, back of field 15th before looping field and finishing on well, 4.5 lengths from winner. Extra 200m here will be perfect. Trained by the Parsons, to be ridden by R Beeharry who has been in great form, no negatives there. Drawn barrier 6 so should be able to take a nice position. Improved with racing. $5.00 plus for me.

It seems letter P combined with a grey, spotted horse is best

Great idea, I sure could learn much more and apply to my betting. Over the years, I have come to a conclusion... I don't need to back more winners but back less losers....and hence a better ROI. I bet very selectively, perhaps only a couple per day. I don't expect to win every race. My goal is to win long term. Look forward to some sharing on this thread.