FeelTheFear

Didn't bet all but made a tidy profit. Your generosity and skill much appreciated by us little punters

https://korearacing.live/ http://studbook.kra.co.kr/neweng/main.jsp FYI

Ferrando looks overs for me and a longshot is Rocanto

still $8 Bet Easy

Volpe Veloce had a 4 month break before her run at Arawa Park where she put in a very good run over 1215m for 4th, 0.4 lengths from winner Volks Lightning. Then another top class effort at Pukekohe over 1400m where she fought gallantly for a 0.1 length second. Looks primed for this and the step up to 1600m will suit.

I tried to run the Open Office version of Access but it would not run because it needs Java. I think the Java was blocked by the Chrome browser. I think I need to have another look at how to enable it again. Cheers

Thanks mate, yes I have wondered about a more efficient way of doing it. Will have a look at those free SQL. Have used Access many years ago. I only recently taught myself basic formulae including vlookup, have data on different sheets that can be brought into main sheet. This was a triumph for me and I know it isn't the best way of doing things but it was my entry into data processing. The information that I have recorded for HK has all the important info. I need though I don't know how to effectively use it yet. I have found that I can read a race quite accurately without even seeing the race (barring interference etc). I can tell where a horse exerted itself, where it saved energy. Each sectional tells a part of a story. I can tell for instance, where a horse has exerted a 104% effort (par = 100%) over a certain sectional, see how many lengths off the leader it was and compare to each runner, particularly the leader. Is the horse gaining or has the field quickened. I can tell if the winner has gained in the straight by accelerating or has it retained its original momentum and the horses ahead of it have started to weaken. Now, all this may turn out to be useless but I don't mind spending the time doing it as I am very patient and always learn something. I'm never hesitant to throw away any research, even if a lot time has gone into it. I want accuracy. I've always loved data. I love the thrill of the 'chase'

At this stage on a good track I am leaning towards Volpe Veloce currently at $8 Bet Easy FO.

Hopefully you will at least come out flush. Good luck

Beats a bog track though.

What is the predicted weather for this? Track condition?

cheers mate. Sounds like I have years of learning ? I did all the Group, C1 and C2 form for Hong Kong until recently as they have all the times/sectionals etc. My data spans 54 columns. It allows me to give a rating based upon times run versus par times for the track/distance/class. Also has all sectionals that I convert to a % for each so I can see where the horses energy was used. Class was defined by Group racing rating 100 and par times for C1 and C2 compared and converted to lengths and taken from 100. A track variant for each day was done by comparing race times against their par times, averaging to produce a + or - figure added to the raw rating. Hong Kong update their data regularly to capture the past 3 years racing. I used to do everything manually. I fairly recently learnt how to use formulae to do the individual calculations, much faster now. I stopped doing it in Sep. because I don't have a connection with Hong Kong. NZ racing I have that. I do all the breeding, have done for over 30 years. Perhaps I should go back to the Hong Kong database and catch up. Haven't had a chance to test it yet.

cheers mate, I am playing around with something at the moment that could be great or a disaster...love it. Keep up the fascinating post, I have my fingers crossed.

No idea what you are doing and yet I follow fascinated.

https://www.punters.com.au/news/tye-angland-update_175794/

Still chewing through all this wonderful information. I will never reach the level of sophistication with regards to your analysis mardigras but trying to settle for something less complicated but still meaningful. Curious and mardigras, you are right. NZ races are difficult due to the reasons stated and the confidence level would be low. Would ascertaining a base time for each track by taking say the winner plus all other runners equal to or within 1 length of the winner help. Less accurate perhaps but may still give some confidence. I am thinking of trying to analyse the UK races. How do I get the historical data and in a form I can use? Are there any particular tracks that are poor for analysis and better left alone? I like the fact that they get their horses ready to run without the need to race them into fitness.

The G1 was hard to rate as many did not have any distance times in heavy conditions.

cheers curious. Did a play around with time and other analysis with a market for 3 races today. Lots of work to do I am sure. Have highlighted top 4. Horse Rating % Market FO Howbowdat 16.1 3.0 $26.52 $7.00 Verry Flash 59.1 11.0 $7.25 $8.00 4th Somethingvain 15.4 2.9 $27.74 $18.00 Soroc 56.9 10.6 $7.52 $9.50 O'Angel 49.8 9.3 $8.59 $8.50 3rd Back In A Flash 93.6 17.5 $4.57 $4.60 1st Ruby Love 80.3 15.0 $5.33 $9.00 Bit Lippy 78.0 14.6 $5.49 $4.80 Viktor Vegas 85.7 16.0 $4.99 $8.00 2nd Indecision 106.5 28.3 $2.82 $4.80 1st Rocanto 22.1 5.9 $13.63 $5.00 3rd Santa Monica 89.3 23.8 $3.37 $4.20 2nd Bella Gioia 84.9 22.6 $3.54 $8.50 4th She's A Thief 12.3 3.3 $24.43 $4.20 Short Fuse 56.5 15.1 $5.31 $5.50 Power Dream 4.1 1.1 $73.40 $17.00 Jon Snow 97.9 22.5 $3.56 $5.00 3rd Saint Emilion 52.9 12.1 $6.58 $12.00 Authentic Paddy 115.3 26.5 $3.02 $15.00 4th Meeska Mooska 13.0 3.0 $26.81 $34.00 Lizzie L'Amour 80.4 18.4 $4.34 $4.40 2nd Nicoletta 27.0 6.2 $12.89 $23.00 Danzdanzdance 49.2 11.3 $7.08 $1.85 1st

I don't have that data in my database though I have often read that most winners come from the 14 days or less factor, even 21 days being positive. It is a population stat but one that makes sense. At the very least, it favours the likelyhood of a horse holding it's fitness or indeed improving it. Found this... Nevertheless, a rule is a rule, and there is an overall logic in not backing any horse that has not performed in, say, four to 14 days. You might lower that to three days or raise it to 21 (which seems to be the maximum in most people's opinion), but once you've made your decision it makes things a lot simpler. I dug out an old book by the great Clif Cary because I knew he had some statistics on this subject and the winners panned out like this: days since last start percentage total within 7 30.6 30 ' 6 8-14 36.7 67.3 15-21 18.1 85.4 22-28 5.7 91.1 So it looks, from this survey which covered thousands of horses, as if the big gap is after a fortnight, with less than one third of winners having a break of longer than this. Naturally, this is not the end of the story, and there are numerous other factors to consider, but it is a factor that seems to hold up, whatever survey you look at. It's as consistent as the one that proves favourites win between 30 and 35 races in every 100.

Bugger missed my horse Kacchi in race 1 Ellerslie. Good price too Posted Dec. 13: Ellerslie Race 5: Both #4 Cha Siu Bao and #12 Kachhi are at value odds. Both have ability.

thanks, that is what I like. Info I can now take away and look at/adapt. Much appreciated.

Be very careful though as confirmation bias is massive with many punters I read eveything I can, I always find that bullshit will help reinforce what I know doesn't work and other ideas may trigger a response to study further. I am always looking for that gem amongst the rubbish. It all gets me thinking, gives me ideas.

Cheers for that mate, I have looked at all those but tempo and in running position are two I am trying to get to grips with. Days since last run is an interesting one. Longer than 1600m I think a recent run, say last 30 days or so is important as is fresh up form for shorter distances (population stat). However, if I take it to each individual horse, then how it performs with that last days run is more important I think. A horse may have won fresh up over 2000m say or with a 47 day break. Is this the way you go mate? I have used average prize money for the last 12 months but is it better to take the total career earnings? I'm not sure how far back I should go to make an effective assessment. Thanks for the reply, it is helping me to refine what I do

I'm still trying to nail down times assessment. Do I use the best time run over distance on track conditions for career/last year/2 years? Do I use the average? Do I take the top 2 best times averaged? I have a database of all runs in NZ the past 3 years and a database of all winners since 2012 including Australian Group winners. I want to assess based upon times run at various courses but not enough data, even over this time, to really get a good time based assessment. I find that when I assess a race, my ratings can be close to each other thereby giving a market of a few $7-$10 horses (top rated) with little variation. I presume I have to add other factors to get a greater separation. I would assume I am doing it wrong. I just divide each rating in to the sum of the field ratings then get a market based upon %. This seems to be the hardest area for many to achieve. I have spreadsheets that can do a certain amount of calculating once I input the data. I would be interested in what data is the most important. Best times, career performance, average prize money earned, course or distance? Thought I would throw all that up not only for myself but perhaps many others may have the same/similar questions. Not looking for anyone to give away any secrets, I am willing to do the work with guidance.