FeelTheFear

You are right in believing he will get the 2400m, I think so too. A correction, he is not from the family of Fix or Cure. In fact, his 3rd dam Iwan is a full sister to Marauding. Has a full sister named Australia who won at New Plymouth 23 Nov. 2018. Trained by A Sharrock. She looks like she has real ability as well.

Yes Turny. Has to claim the win and suggest I was backing his flawed BP. Actually, I did my assessment purely on past time analysis with a few tweaks. No class, barrier, track cond., bad luck runs, just pure times run over the distance (ignoring the G3 run over 1800m). Still, he has to get his jollies somehow, the plastic is wearing thin on the Princess

Piss off moron

yep it's in the past but I just had to bring it up because lying is in my genes

If the Chief's party is getting desperate late in the day. Worth a dollar for the place. Race 6 #3 Hvar. Trials 2nd after 10 month spell and slashing run last start at Avondale. Place chance. Race 7 #11 O'Princess.Good run 2nd up after a short spell, 1.9L 7th. Previous 2 runs were after a year lay off. Has ability and could sneak a place.

MASQUE (R Elliot) – Raced wide until improving forward to sit outside the leader passing the 1200 metres.

PINK GRAFFITI (L Innes) – Had difficulty obtaining clear running early in the final straight before shifting out passing the 250 metres. Steadied when crowded passing the 50 metres between SHE’S NOT BAD (O Bosson) which shifted out slightly and LIGHT SHADOW (J Riddell) which shifted in under pressure. Riders O Bosson and J Riddell were both advised to exercise care in a similar circumstance.

SO WICKED (J Waddell) – Slow away. Placed in restricted room 800 metres and reacted poorly losing ground. Eased down by its rider in the final straight with J Waddell reporting that the mare had made abnormal noises. A post-race veterinary examination could find no obvious abnormalities. Lost the left hind plate during the running.

Masque at $29 Put a dollar on Capellani at $51

hope not, had a nice value runner race 7

Has a chance though too short for me. Seems to get in to strife in its races and that doesn't help. I haven't looked at the field closely but I would want $12 if I was betting it. Short on Bet Easy FO at $6.50 Leith Innes should give it a decent run if it runs true

Race 7 #7 Masque is one I have been following. Steps up to 2100m today at Ellerslie, should get the extra distance and currently at $23 & $5 on Bet Easy FO. Not a strong field and justifies at least a place bet.

Only 3 for me at value, don't go longer than $30

my legs have got longer, can't touch my toes anymore

It's a hell of a time improvement. When was the track revamped? Surely checking times run since then will show any anomalies, if any. That's around 12 lengths

Wish I could write software. Have only just taught myself a basic LOOKUP using Open Office. Now I can pull info. from different sheets and even different books. Saves me hours of typing that I did over the years. Just been playing with a spreadsheet that can give me a 7 generation pedigree chart with info I want. The only thing I type in is the name of a horse in cell A1. I'm not that clever with things like this but was chuffed when I did it.

No the large heart theory has been disproved. Large hearts are the result of many genes, not just one and it looks like it can be transmitted to a sire's son. Hard to get a lot of information/research but definitely not the simple large heart x-chromosone theory. ?

My value bets here (Bet Easy FO) Five To Midnight at $7 Maygrove at $21 Excalibur at $15 Kyrie Eleison at $23

Thank you Belle Du Nord $21 is very nice.

Thanks Docker. Thanks The Crucible. I usually focus on maiden fields with little obvious form. I try to get a feel for the horse. Has it shown some sort of ability in its races. Perhaps it is fresh up and I look for something that will lead me to think it might go well. A recent trial perhaps or a top rated jockey on board. What is the breeding, especially over ground. It may also be a horse that I have come across in the immediate past as I keep a database of all NZ runners and spend hours a day looking for potential future performers. I didn't frame a market before curious, mardigras and barryb generously gave us helpful ways to see how that could be vital. This latest market attempt is something new I am trying. It is not based upon so called class of race, weight or track conditions. I have done an analysis to get an average time over the distance of the race that each individual horse has run. I then apply it against a standard time to get a rating. I then add or subtract another 4-5 factors that have a possible influence on the horses ability to perform. These factors are a small adjustment overall. The tightness of the market for the Isuzu Stakes is the result of the closeness of the times between the horses in the field. It isn't great enough to give a wider spread. As I said, this is something I am trying. The shorter the distance, the closer these times between horses will be. I will still continue to 'dabble' in the mire of maiden fields, trying to uncover a gem. I will still continue to try and unearth the 'code' to framing a market and still get it wrong. Hopefully I will receive support and positive feedback on how to do so.

Unknowingly perhaps?

Thoroughbred racing in NZ has gone to the dogs so anything is possible

Still working on my markets. Have the Isuzu Stakes a lot tighter. Te Rapa 15 Dec. 2018 Waikato Cup 2400m Five To Midnight $5.40 Maygrove $6.34 He's Cavalier $18.61 Igraine $8.57 Mongolian Marshal $6.97 Excalibur $6.81 Blue Breeze $18.32 Kyrie Eleison $15.07 Wooden Edge $13.25 Te Rapa 15 Dec. 2018 Cal Isuzu Stakes 1600m Lizzie L'Amour $5.65 Love Affair $7.10 Nicoletta $8.01 Bisou Bisou $8.49 Belle Du Nord $9.62 Caprikosa $8.53 Supera $9.00 Piece Of Kate $9.34

Hi Docker. Had both rated in the $8s. Cha Siu Bao 1.5L from winner outran his chance. Kachhi did about what he was rated 7.6L. Kachhi well back, took the short way home and was making ground well before fading. Cha Siu Bao right in the finish.

Ellerslie Race 5: Both #4 Cha Siu Bao and #12 Kachhi are at value odds. Both have ability. Posted before race. Win or place the go. Not saying quinella but if they do I will claim it and add 20%