the galah

No doubt ben hope used all his knowledge and also tapped into the wise heads of those who run and work at the hope stable to get the improvement in pure courage. Certainly was a major improvement but i'm sure it just came down to skill that saw the turnaround in form. I don't know mr james ,the previous trainer,but i think he does a nice job and red harbour has been a star for his stable. I do remember talking to a trainer who once pulled off a similar win with a horse that he bought from mr james,. It too won first up and they pulled off a winning punt. From memory that trainer told me how mr james was a hard working person who he sometimes would see race his horses at night some distance away,then be would see him drive past early in the morning on the way to work. I like seeing people like that do well and red harbour is one of my favorites. i wonder where he is at the moment. Anyway ben hope must have seen something in pure courage that others may not have and has reaped the rewards. Interesting that they put it in the amateur race. Horses just seem to always run for the wigg sisters. Forbury i think your being a tough judge on mr hope's driving. Your entitled to your opinion and i agree sometimes he can be a bit frustrating from a punting perspective,but his record shows he's one of the best when it comes to drivers of trotters in nz,not just the good ones.i think he drives the pacers ok ,just does tend to drive a bit for luck more with the pacers and doesn't always get it. And punters always like seeing the horse with their money on get a run at the right time,even if that isn't a realistic expectation.

i think the dunn stable has dropped off in performance just in the last 3 weeks. Since the 8th of october,in the south island they have had 37 starters. Of those 37 starters, 5 were favorites,4 second favorites and 4 third favorites. They have ran 2 seconds and 2 thirds from those 37 starters. Their current yearly udr is .2566,so the latest 2 weeks results clearly indicate a drop off in form. Personally i think its been noticeable. All stables have there runs,its just this one seems to have seen a slight drop off in most of their teams performances,in my opinion. Prior to that they had been going great,which is the norm for them mostly. Some may say,thats being a bit negative,i don't think so myself,i'm just quoting the stats to make the point i made earlier. One thing about the dunns is they are known for their consistency and because of that are good to follow. One stable i have trouble following is the R Todd stable. Its like about 3 weeks ago,in just a few days he took 9 horses to the races. Only one managed to not run last,or 2nd last if he had 2 in the same race. When the Todd trained horses run well,they run very well,but its hard guessing just when that will be sometimes.

I backed just the one tonight. Jahi race 11. the equal 2nd favorite..I thought he had the perfect draw.I have noticed,in my opinion,all the dunn team have been running about 3 lengths below what they had 3 weeks ago and thought the $2 favorite they had in that race would underperform. Unfortunately as to my pick,well i just can't work out that drive. Bob butt tried hard but couldn't quite make the trail,but still ended up in the perfect 1/1 sit following the other equal 2nd favorite. To my amazement he gave up that position and switched to 3 back the fence after 700m.. In that move it appeared he virtually gave up any chance he had, with the race unfolding as expected from there with him not getting a clear runfrom the position he elected to place it. The horse who was following him originally took his position in the 1/1 and got the perfect run,as you could see would happen, and won. I know i'm talking through my pocket,but what was going on with that drive?

A well written article. terrible decision after terrible decision by those who ran the ATC.Did they ever get anything right? Interesting that they choseto lose tens of millions of $ by not invoking the sunset clauses. Mind boggling that those who ran the ATC would rather have the ATC ruined financially than do that.They must have known that. Ask yourself this. Would the people like the Bruce Carter mentioned,have done the same if it was his money that he could recover. I think he would have. If you were cynical you could say,Oh well,only the ruin of trotting in the north island. Not a big deal. PActually its just realism,not cynicism.

Thats the point isn't it. The current leadership have worked hard and may well be able to continue,but going forward are they going to have the income to match their expenditure,given they have sold the majority of their prized assets that generated previous income. Lets be honest,we need to look back and see the justification they used to proceed with the project in 2014. In media reports from the likes of barry lichter,it quoted kerry hoggard,ATC chairman as saying the justification for taking on the very risky development was... They needed to generate further income to carry on as their income sources were being eaten away. And here we are in 2023 ,with things so much worse. It must be remembered that as well as the latest 100million of assets sold,they also sold other revenue generating assets worth over $50 million a couple of years ago. So the obvious question is,if they couldn't sustain harness racing in auckland when they had all the assets and income back in 2014,then how could they possibly do it now? Actually its interesting to read an article that Barry Lichter wrote in 2014.It was concerning the meeting of ATC members who voted resoundingly in favour of the proposed development. It seems only 6 voted against it. Kerry hoggard said they could indeed pocket $30 million up front and not get into the property development business,but that they were worried the developerm would get close to $25 m and they would only be ledt with $5m.By becoming property developers themselves they would increase their assets by $42m. One member at the meeting,a gavin logan, a former property developer himself,called the decision as MADNESS,saying you simply don't appreciate all the risks until you do it. He said property development is the most dangerous game you can play. He said we all know of the finance companies that went broke in the last financial crisis,well this proposed project is exactly the type of project that sent them broke"... Anyway while they may live to fight another day,for how long is the answer.

So Barry lichter has just written an informative story on the state of finances at the ATC.Good on him for actually informing people.No one else in nz media or hrnz seems to have thought the future of harness racing in the north island deserved any coverage. Although he doesn't actually say it,reading between the lines what he has wriiten,it appears the ATC can indeed continue operating at alexandra park in the future. This seems to be conditional on the settlement of the sale agreement of the current training facilities at pukekohe which they sold for $100million.It seems it all comes down to whether the sale proceeds and according to J mackinnon,ATC president,its expected it will do so.The hold up has been things like council and evironment court consents,but they have now come through. Should the sale not be confirmed as expected,then it will get trickier as the club is paying $100,000 a week interest on their borrowings from the failed developments.The ATC owe $78 million and will pay over $5 million more before the balance of the purchase price is settled(in 12 months). Its unreal to think just how bad a decision makers that the ATC had on their board previously, to have put their club in such a terrible state from the development decision,but you can't change history and the ATC may still have a bit of life left in it. They obviously aren't out of the woods totally as they have sold the training facilities so many auckland trainers use and now have just a couple of years and only 15-20 million dollars to find somewhere and develop it in the next 2 years as a training centre. Jamie Mackinnon obviously is a pretty single minded person who seems to have unnecessarily annoyed a few people ,but if you look at his achiebement to bring the club back from the brink,perhaps he deserves a lot of credit should the club be able to continue. Also the ATC now want HRNZ to contribute $ towards the new facilities. That seems a bit rich that the ATC would expect the likes of south island clubs and trainers/drivers/owners to pay for their incompetence.Then again maybe HRNZ may end up doing that. My suggestion if they do consider that,would be to cancel the extra $8000 they will be paying to the winners of 2yold races next year. In other words some of the decision makers at hrnz would be benefitting from the 2 y old bonus,so make them have a consequence to a decison t provide the ATC funds,should they do so.

Not really.I know he is a good reporter though. I find ray green may be a very good trainer but i don't rate him as a tipster going by the comments he makes about his runners each week. Maybe mr greens tipping has got better since i stopped reading what he had to say? I do check into the lincoln farm website if they have one of their horses running in queensland. Their trainer over there,M DUX seems very accurate with his predictions.

I once talked to a consultant from auckland who was in town giving advise to the local council. He had many years experience in that field. This was at a time when the development had just started and there were inital delays. At the time a couple of other similar projects in auckland were reportedly in trouble. When i asked him about the ATC development his comments were along the lines that yes they can make good money but that he found it surprising the ATC were taking on such a venture outside their wheelhouse given all the pitfalls that could occur and given there were many examples to prove that such a big project could easily fall off the rails for several reasons. I remember him smiling and saying something along the lines that we will just have to wait and see how that turns out for them. At the time i thought that he doesn't sound very positive and he says hes an expert in giving advice on such projects. By the way gammalite. I just watched a race at albion park. I noticed the number 2 horse almost doubled its dividend in the last 2 minutes. A horse called Archilles driven by matt elkins. To me it looked like a clear case of M elkins getting a good run through good luck as the race unfolded,then with 400m to go the driver realising he may actually get somewhere unless he steers it to the inside so to ensure it ran nowhere. i watch things like that and think why do people bother betting on racing in queensland when you have drivers seemingly fixing races.

How come it takes an australian to inform new zealanders about what may be happening in nz harness. Is the auckland trotting club just another of those no go topics that the nz harness media don't talk about? According to the peter profit headline which anyone can read if they google it...it quotes the auditors report ...as at 31 july 2023 the ATC lost another $6.8 million for the year ended 31 july 2023 and that as at that date, its liabilities exceed its assets by $47.3 million....and that the auditors had signiicant doubt that it should continue as a going concern. several times before i have pointed out the lack of and subsequently proven inaccurate information that some racing journalists have peddled in relation to the ATC in the past.Nowdays they don't do that,they just ignore the subject and say they can't talk about it because its sensitive business infromation. Is this not further proof that people should be skeptical of much of what the harness media say around sensitive subjects and that certain media have a..Head in the sand ...attitude.. Also,if the auckland trotting club continues to rack up the massive losses and the auditors are saying they should stop trading,then why are they still going. Shouldn't they just accept the inevitable and fold before the debt goes even higher.. And given all that why no comment from hrnz to stakeholers about what,if any plans there are to enable harness racing in the north island to continue. Does the silence mean that they have no credible plans ?

You did well to analyse the form and recognise that a win may come soon for that horse. It started at 60/1 i think.I know when you do the study and have one of them come home and pay a big place dividend like portelli did,that it can be very satisfying. Horses that start at those prices and end up running somewhere are getting harder to find these days. I think the punters that are still betting these days mostly have good knowledge of the form.The number of uninformed punters betting is dropping and that is why its getting harder to find a horse at a good price that actually delivers. I also know that when you do spot one at long odds like portelli,that your hoping it gets the right run and pays a dividend before others recongnise its potential and its future potential dividends are significantly shortened.

Nice picture to make your point. But that picture is at the 200m just as the horse in the trail has moved into the passing lane . 50m later the gap is closed and unlikely portelli could have picked up the 2 lengths to take the gap in such a short distance.Also i'm not sure pulling the hood earlier when he was still on the back of the trailing horse would have achieved anything. Sure it may have perked him up a little but he also may have had to take hold and lose momentum just prior to the passing lane had the horse got keen. I just think being an inexperienced non win trotter its hard to see how the driver did anything that cost him a chance of a closer finish.Also he did break the previous start in the home straight and the driver would have been aware of wanting to keep him in a nice rhythm to ensure he didn't this time as well..We will have to agree to disagree,but i can see your point.

I agree with your comments about the cameron drive.Just following a horse who's form indicated it would not take it into the race. But as you say she was driving a horse that always seems to be driven for one late run at them,so maybe just following instructions. As to the portelli drive.In my opinion I don't think it had a clear run at any stage and didn't see anything wrong with the driver taking a couple of seconds to see if a gap would appear before he pulled the earplugs. Not much point in driving into a non existant gap.

I accept everything you say there but believe their are many successful trainers who take those steps.Obviously the willingness of owners to pay costs associated with what you say is a factor.But many of those trainers once viewed as top trainers simply are not able to match a couple of stables when it comes to the big races. So the dominance of a couple of stables in the big races and the perceived improvement seen on those big days leads people to lose hope of ever owning or training a big race winner.Many people used to once have hopes and aspirations of owning a big race winner but thats not todays reality. That has been a factor in the industries base of participants diminishing in numbers. Not the only reason but certainly an important one.

It doesn't upset me in any way that stewart dominates over there. .Personally i would prefer to see someone else that i don't think uses performance enhancers,even if stewarts horses won't return positives. But the reality is the more sophisticated and the more resources stables have to use the latest thing to enhance performance,even if they are legal,simply put is the difference between winning or not. Like i have said before,people go on about how a couple of trainers are simply way ahead of everyone else because they have the best horses,training facilities,latest training techniques,simply way more skilled,etc,etc. Then claim that hey,they are better than everyone else at everything except when it comes to knowledge and resources to use the latest performance enhancer,legal or not testable or not. I think that part is just ignoring the obvious . Thats why i prefer seeing someone other than stewart win the likes of the victoria cup with the horse she admitted giving an illegal treatment to a couple of weeks ago.But just because it doesn't really float my boat,its just my view of what i think is an obvious reality.but i accept it is what it is and no point getting annoyed about things like that in another country. I watched the everest yesterday. looked a great occasion. And when i was watching trackside last week a 1.3 million dollar dog race was on. Amazing how much money they can run for over there.

Its working now

I know since the races started at least. HRNZ website not working either at the moment. Must have gone out in sympathy. Betfair and Australian TAB websites working just fine .. Welcome back forbury.

I blame global warming myself. Either that or the russians or kim jong un.Is it just me,or do others think Kim jong un always sound like hes having a bowel movement when he speaks? Instead of betting i read a news story about the trial in auckland of 6 indians trying to murder an indian radio broadcaster in 2020 .I see luke radich was the crown prosecuter in that case. Or maybe the crown pros..akuta is a better way of putting it since hes a racing fan. Talking about internet connections. It reminds me of a joke. Chris luxon and chris hipkins were both looking at ways of cost cutting when they visited a school last week. One chris said to the other,we can save money here as the lunches are too big and they have too many computers.They then went to a pre school. One chris said to the other. The lunches are too big here as well and they have too many toys.They then went to a prison. They both looked on in agreement. We need to increase the size of the meals,get faster broadband and more comfortable beds. One member of their staff who had travelled with them piped up and said,are you crazy,we won't get votes if the public know we are cutting education spending to give it to prisoners. To which the both chris's replied in unison,yes but we may end up in here one day when the public find out about all the false promises we are making. Tab website still not working.

I say keep it up the tab,as i would have lost anyway.Funny thing is while it didn't seem to be working from the start of the races,it actually worked for a few seconds just before race 2 as i managed to get a place bet on Lucky Mum. The $60 to one shot broke when looking likely to run 2nd.Typical.How come the system was working then? funny thing is i have been sending emails to the tab for the last 3 weeks trying to get an answer out of them about something. All i have got back so far is one email from them saying.... "Sorry for the delayed response,we have had a system error stopping us from replying". They somehow managed to send that email to me,but still no answer to my original email.

I can't understand them ignoring the tab terminal when the staff aren't doing anything anyway a lot of the time.. I've noticed the service at the couple i occasionally vist seems to be getting worse in the last year. I've also noticed that the older staff at some bars occasionally try to serve the tab terminal and the younger staff just couldn't care whether you stood at their tab terminal all day gathering dust and cobwebs. Wouldn't you think the the TAB had some sort of system in place to monitor how their product was being handled by those with tab outlets.It seems the TAB couldn't care less how bad the things have gotten . Ring the TAB and complain,then go back to the same bar a month later and i will gaurantee nothing will have changed. It reminds me of my wife going into ballantynes and buying a handbag last year. The store says you can return them within so many days. Well my wife had bought about 7 or 8 handbags there and had returned 2 of them within the time frame allowed. Well when she went in to get another one they told her she wouldn't be able to return it even if the store had a policy that said she could. She was treated so poorly by the ballantynes staff that a customer who was waiting to be served behind her complained to management and management somehow tracked us down and gave her a nice voucher and an apology. Well my wife went in the following week to get that handbag that she had wanted the week before and was firstly ignored by their staff,then again told she couldn't return the handbag,which she wouldn't have anyway.My wife just left and told them to stick it and their voucher. I had spent about $5000 buying clothes,shoes,and a small appliance at ballantynes in the previous 6 months,but now will never ever step foot in any of there stores ever again. Provide poor customer service and customers just won't come back. No I don't use their app much because the reception is normally poor even though i live in a populated area..My wife does a bit and says the app's shit anyway.I think part of that is the poor reception. I have spoken to others who have said the same thing.

The restrictions thing is part of the puzzle,but there are other just as importantreasons as well. The lack of access to tab's that place any emphasis on customer service is a major problem. From my recent experiences,Go to any christchurch tab and its either one of those self service machines and it generally takes about a minute or two for someone in front of you to put on a bet and like brodie has said ,doesn't pay out in cash anyway. I used such a machine a couple of times in the last month and both times had to then work out with a fella ,how much i owed him because he hadn't cashed out. I think the problem there was this fella was the only one in the tab both times and no one else was using the machine and it caught him by surprise that anyone else would come in and have a bet. The customer service at these tab's is a joke. Every time i go into any tab and try and use the terminal where there are operators i am completely ignored by their staff. I just stand there for 5 minutes while the staff just chat to each other,not serving anyone at the bar. Its pathetic customer service. Every time,guaranteed,i have to go to them and ask them to walk 10 steps down the bar to serve me. I either get an apolpogy,which i know is fake as they had already seen me, or i get a grumpy look. Tab customer service at tab outlets is a joke and very frustrating. No wonder theres hardly anyone using them.

John allen once said the top 1.5% pf their customers produce 56% of turnover. Its just logic that the top 1.5% are more likely to be the successful punters given they can afford to create the higher turnover. From that it justs logic to conclude that if you implement policies that make it less attractive for that top 1.5% to spend and return profits,then you will directly impact the overall spend on the tote as well. There are several ways that the tab has made it unattractive for winning punters.Some of it has been fair play and others it has not. So when people say that its as simple as reducing the winning returns of winning punters on the ff....and that will lead to the tab giving larger returns to the harness racing industry,well that is over simplyfying things.That completely ignores the impact that has on tote betting turnovers. In fact,i believe it is a direct cause of reducing tote turnovers. I know people who can point to the amounts that they have reduced their tote turnovers as proof.

Are we allowed to laugh at the comments about drivers laughing pre race? I can understand where they are coming from but i think they are well off the mark if they think punters care at all about that. Over the years i've never heard anyone ever comment about that occuring in a prelimanary. I think someone should actually be saying,hey,this is going a step too far fellas.

O thornley actually drove millwood nike to win its first couple of races. I'm not sure No matter what was a headcase. It always ran like something was bothering it. Somehow it was able to race like that. They actually reported at one stage it was sold for big money which seemed surprising someone would try and buy a horse with a problem that even the all stars with all their skill and vets couldn't fix.Then they reported the sale fell through because it hadn't passed the Vet. It was a horse that o thornley's quiet style seemed to suit better than any other driver.

I agree. All their silence does is lead to speculation. Its counter productive in many ways. Who drives what horses in races with markets open is information they have a duty to research and inform people. I think they most likely do know. i think they knew why last time as well.Maybe last time they thought the reason was none of anyones business and maybe the reason is not something they can discuss. Still,even if that is so,this topic is proof that silence hasn't been the right strategy.

So why didn't they mention it? On one hand those that present that show make out they are out to inform people and ramble on each week about the nz cup,and who's paying what, but they would know that people are interested in who will be driving which horse. Having said that,it doesn't surprise me they haven't said much. They may or may not know,like last time she took a break...