the galah

There's a really good story on neil brady that Duane Ranger wrote,written 2 weeks ago. Its well worth the read . I don't know how to post such things on here but if you google duane ranger harness racing,he has a website. His latest story is about riley butt . Perhaps someone smarter than me on how to post stuff may put it up for everyone to read?

i can understand why you say that,but personally find the whole thing a bit surreal and hard to get a handle on. so much history,so complicated,each side placing self interest above everything else. I suppose thats how things work though and its the innocent who have no control over these things who pay the heaviest price,as always. i have followed it and it seems the timing of the hamas attacks was related to israel making recent peace deals with other arab countries without having to make concessions in its conflict with the palestinians in those deals. Seems they have been negotiating along those lines recently with saudi arabia,irans arch enemy. So it seems the hamas attacks were a way of derailing those agreements. Lets face it,its not Israels fault for trying to want more stability defence wise in the region. I read a poll recently,and i have just looked at it again and took a few notes which i think are interesting in helping understand it all. The poll was of people who live in gaza and the west bank and was taken just a couple of months ago. heres some things the poll said which you may find interesting. Support for hamas,the ruling party in gaza,spikes during armed conflict,but even now most palestinians do not back hamas. Gaza residents are more critical of hamas than those in the west bank.44% in the west bank support hamas and 42% in gaza. But depsite all that,57% in gaza and 82% in the west bank believe hamas was justified in lauching the october attacks on israel. A large majority believed hamas claims that the attack was to defend a major islamic shrine in jerusalem against jewish extremists and to win the release of palestinian prisoners. Only 10 % believed hamas had commited war crimes in israel,although the majority had not seen the videos. Seems the palestinian media have fixated on the war in gaza and the suffering of civilians while giving little coverage of the results of the hamas attack. The poll found the level of anti america/anti west was huge,driven by what they viewed america and the west were allowing to be done in gaza. They haven't had elections since 2007 in gaza or the west bank and the palestinian authority don't have the same goals as hamas.It was 2007 that hamas gained control of gaza. The Palestinian authority used to run both the west bank and gaza until 2007.The PA have been heavily criticised for working with israel in coordinating security in the region. So it all appears Israel will be stuck with running gaza when this latest conflict ends.

I like it.The three wise men who have traveled from afar. Brought together ,not by christ,but by bit of a yarn. Who would have thought that...... Then again,maybe that might be overtstating it.

I think you should watch anything professor John mearsheimer,from the university of chicago has said. Hes an expert on the history of ukarine and is someone i followed when they first started talking about the possiblity of war. Hes the fellow who for years has been saying that the wests policy,primarily driven by the USA, of pushing ukraine to join NATO was inevitably going to end up in destroying Ukraine. Hes the fella who consistently has been able to predict what later has unfolded in ukraine. He said the war stems from a huge mistake in 2008 the west made,which was to openly say and pursue policies that would enable ukraine to join NATO. He said putin has been saying since then that unless ukraine remains neutral,that russia had no choice but to wreck and weaken ukraine. He has consistently said the idea russia wanted to conqueror ukraine was a nonsense. He said russia have worked into their strategy of having a neutral ukraine,to include conquering the more natural resource rich part of ukraine,but that putin and russia never wanted a war to start with. He said it was the bidens administration policies which pushed the matter of ukraine joining nato with more active rhetoric and policies,which pushed the russians even more into a corner so they saw a western backed,nato joining ukraine as an existensial threat. the professor insists the west is directly to blame for the war. like i have said ,he has consistently been right on predicting what will and has happened.His views on ukraine and where it was heading have been accurate for years if you look at when and what he has said. He has recently said that the usa and the british did intially think ukraine may win the war but through 2023 they now realise the russians clearly have a good chance of winning the war if they want to commit the necessary resources. The professor was heavily critical of the USA,saying even when it became obvious ukraine was going to be destroyed,the biden administration doubled down . Of course so many establishment republicans have supported the policies that have destroyed ukraine. So when chief you say Putin is a nut case,you are just ignoring history.

golden bays an interesting one. I would imagine whoever first bought it from nz would have paid a reasonable sum. I remember it went ok at the trials here,then showed what i thought was big improvement when it had its first and only nz start on nz cup day,running under a 1.55mr itself when running about 7th after a wide run. They said on trackside it had tossed its driver out beforehand and run around the track but they still started it.Maybe getting all spooked up had helped it,who knows. So i've occasionally watched it when its run in australia and its gone like its trials form. Handy but not the horse that ran on nz cup day. It did win first up in queensland though. So will be interesting how it goes for grimson.

Currently there have been 24 Junior drivers have a drive in 2024. Of the 24, 14 are young women. The 3 leading juniors are all men. It has become an industry where women have a possibilty of being quite sucessful career wise, as well as having a job that is enjoyable and i think thats an area which is not promoted enough myself. Although i'm with you forbury in thinking men will always havea slight advantage just because they have that bit more natural aggression in them. Sometimes that may not be the best thing,but it is a thing. As far as the junior driver premiership goes it will end up being between wilson house,carter dalgety and sam thornley.That should be a good battle.

I think you haven't been as fair minded as you normally are brodie with that comment and he should always continue to say whatever he thinks.

I don't think people are knocking her natural ability,just the one drive. And for that type of thing,thats all it was,a one off. I'm just saying some drivers go through the odd slump in form,just like they do in other sports.And just like in other sports,those that follow whatever particular sport it may be,notice it and often comment it on. I'm sure being a top driver requires the same as being good at any sport,a large part is natural abilty and a significant part is the mindset. Confidence is a big thing. I'm also sure horses perform best when their mindset is good. Also horses can also sense the mindset of a driver and perform accordingly.

Your right about the drive she got suspended for. But its not her that imposed the light penalty,so can't blame her for that. in my opinion she was not driving at her best prior to that suspension,but since that expired and she resumed driving, she has been driving very well.So she obviously has already come back a wiser person. Going overseas sounds like a real adventure. Mind you with technology today you can still stay in close contact with all her friends and family.

Unhinged did an interview with gemma thornley where she said she was going to work with the three day event type horses,i think. Its on his unhinged harness facebook site. She has been driving with confidence again in the last month and is a talented horse person.

Heres another one. On the 10th of january tom nally was suspended for 7 days. Tom nally is the southland junior driver who drives drives in southland/otago. I'm guessing you could count on one hand the number of times he drives in canterbury. each year. He had not driven in canterbury in the month prior to his suspension. So what did the adjudicaator do. well it appears they spun the chocolate wheel and it landed on the 2 of february. So there are 4 meetings in southland or otago in the time frame he was suspended.. Then there were 3 days meetings in canterbury on days where there was no southland meeting. So therefore it seems the adjudicators now will include any meeting from southland to canterbury as days included in someones suspension,irrespective of whether you drive in those areas. In nallys case you can't even argue that he may have driven in junior driver races programmed,because one of the meetings included had no such race. Besides he hadn't driven in the canterbury junior races the month prior to his suspension. I don't really follow this stuff,but when i do look at them,its obvious how farcical the penalties are and how totally inconsistent those that hand them out are. Its just like the scratching penalties. Anyone who follows those must realise they are so inconsistently applied. Harness racing seems to be riverting back to the days of inconsistency in judical penalties. Surely its time canterbury drivers start insisting they have southland meetings included in their days suspended.

Do you think people are going to breed more horses because of an initiative that in 3 years may pay dividends for them. An initiative that i would confidently predict will not exist in such generous terms in 3 years time.You do realise there is no guarantee the bonus will be around in the same form next year,let alone 3 years time.There may be no bonus whatsoever in 3 years. That would be like a car importer buying up electric cars in japan just before the last election,due for delivery next month,thinking at the time he bought them he can get a top price onselling them because of the clean car rebate. There may be people who breed horses who think the same as the car dealer,but no i would not be one of them. I'm not that stupid.

personally i think the level of the subsidies is so high that it makes it the most hair brained/discriminatory scheme to ever come out of HRNZ. Have you ever asked yourself why the owner/breeders of a 2 year old are prioritised with $12,000 bonuses at the expense of owners of 3 year olds and above. Have you ever asked,who are the people who came up with this scheme and do they have self interest. i.e. will the decision makers fall into the cateory of owners/breeders who will benefit from the bonuses. I thought they are supposed to have a handicapping system designed to race like against like to generate turnover. Given 5 horse races will generate next to no turnover,why have they guaranteed the running of these programmed races with only 5 acceptors? If Entain came up with the idea,what type of idiots are running that place,if they think 5 horse 2 year old races will generate turnover and are good for the industry. All those races at places like auckland and cambridge and manawatu and southland. They will not get big numbers. There is only so much of the pie stakes wise to go around. Give a bigger slice to one group and whats left of the rest of the pie is smaller. Even some of the conditions in the scheme are a bit odd. for example.. if a breeder/breeding entity ceases to exist ,only the owner portion of the bonus will be paid.... breeder/breeding entity ceases to exist if they have not bred in the previous 5 years. I mean why do they need that 2nd part of the conditions. After all,2 year old s will not have been bred over 5 years ago. Also,what happens to people who have say a 2 year old trotter up and running early. Given they can't race anything but 2 year olds,do they just run around at the trials for months on end. Thats going to happen in the areas where there are small numbers like southland and auckland. And who do these winners of 2 year olds race. Are they going to run more small fields for 2 year old race winners? I think its a poorly thought out scheme which will just accelerate resentment and disillusionsment amongst many who think their degree of participation is not valued simply because they have a horse older than 2.

4 wins and a 3rd from 6 picks ok. Bennie and the jets didn't go as well as i thought it might when running 3rd,while the one that missed,Watch that man would have won had it got a clear run. So as per normal these days,there always seems one that misses and the multi misses.Bugga.

I would give the driver good marks for consistency.

yes it should be deidre franco. I just put total of $60 on it and its price immediately dropped from $5 to 4.80 to 4.50 to 4.20. All in the one price move because thats how their algorythms work when i have a bet. Funny thing is every time i put an each way bet on these days,whether it be the day before or 2 hours before or whatever,there is 3 immediate price alterations in one go and i only place 2 bets(win and top 3). Honestly,i think its a good chance but $4.20 is not a good price.

My tips would be race 1 royal diedre- 3. mileys ace 5.bennie and the jets 6.watch that man 8 .muscle bank 11. milwood indie. all should win easy.I will take a multi and retire from the profits and never to be heard of again on bit of a yarn.

I remember the jim smith who was a trackside presenter was a very good presenter who often used to tip jim smith the trainers horses. He seemed to take pleasure out of his name being the winning trainers name. I remember it being amusing.

I would assume part of the reason the $2k limit isn't available for top 2/3/4 bets is because they can't lay off on the tote, large amounts to limit their losses on those type of bets you mention. The reason being any lay off bets the ff bookies would make on the place tote would be pointless because how a large place bet would greatly influence the place dividend.

i never said divert peoples spend from ff to the tote. That wouldn't work and i don't come up with suggestions that won't work. What i said was encourage resticted punters to take advantage of the rewards they would get if they spent X amount of $ on the tote.. The reward being allowing those punters to win higher amounts on the ff. The tab covering the cost of the higher risk to their ff book with the levies the tab receive from the higher tote spend. Besides even winning punters have the odd lean run so if the tab implemented my policy,then they would make more money at the same time as increasing turnover. Neither of which they do with their current policies.. Its not a scheme that would appeal to all winning punters ,but i know it would work for many. ill take a note of a few roughies prices tomorrow and give you a few examples.

I agree,you wouldn't ,hence the bookies policies are discouraging people from betting on the tote. So maybe you can see why i have been saying that for over a year now. My point is the closing prices displayed on ff for roughies is not the price you could have bet them at. Its all an illusion.

thats because the tab bookies do not offload into those pools. Also you have to factor in the levies per $ invested taken out on exoctic bets can be up to 10% higher than those invested on the win totes. I think if you were going to have a punt on a horse the way to do it would be to start with the exoctic ff pools then put your ff win and place on last. Of course you can only get on with a return of x number of dollars potential return before it triggers a notification to the bookies so i had thought a drawback would be it is time consuming as you would have to place many exoctic bets to get to a point where you have a possible large return. But as you say,it is one way to go. All the complications of it all just discourages punter participation at the end of the day.

Spending 10 k a week isn't too hard if you follow the horses with all the harness meetings they have. About $150 a race which you could spread over all bet types. If your a serious punter able to win $5000 a month off ff then you should have no problem getting close to your tote spend back or making a profit on the tote as well. If you don't want to take that option well the tab can just say,well we gave you an option where we increased your restriction levels and you didn't take it. If you don't want to make your $5,000 or $10,000 or whatever a month then stop your moaning. It may or may not suit you brodie,but there would be a lot who are restricted who it could help.

I think i can answer that one for you as well. Punters need to assume the tote prices will close similar, for the favorites or win movers, that they see being offered on ff. In other words,if you back a win mover paying $3 on the tote as they start that is at $2.30 on the ff,you will see the tote dividend adjust and close to be the same or very close to the same as the $2.30 ff price after you can no longer bet.. Say you punt late on a horse on ff and you drop that in from $20 to $8 on the ff.Well expect the horses tote dividend of $20 to close at around $8 even though you didn't back it on the tote. The tab bookies will have. It took me a while to work it out but that is what i have observed time after time after time. Thats why these days the tote win pools are always higher than the place pools. Its the tab bookies system offloading after when punters no longer can. Also,another observation is never believe ithe ff dividends on roughies at tote close are what you could have got on at. The bookies lengthen the odds of the roughies right at the end. personally i have tried to back some roughies in the final seconds,been shut out due to the race starting,and then had a look at the odds and seen they have gone up even more than what i tried to get on at but couldn't. Its all just a big game.

I give up trying to explain to you real life experiences of how it effects peoples spend. I can tell you one way for the TAB to never have any punter who has an account that does not yield a profit for the tab. Link the amount of the tote spend to there possible winning ff returns. for example they have identified a punter who is spending mearly all of their spend on ff and making say $5,000 a month off them. Well say to that punter,there is a way where you can avoid being restricted. That is you spend $40,000 a month through the tote and well will allow you to make up to $5,000 a month on ff, Spend $80,000 a month through the tote and you can make $10,000 on ff a month. The levies from the tote spend will always be greater than what they pay out in ff losses. Win/win There i have given you a simple solution to the tab no longer having punters who win off them and who they need to restrict. I'm a genius.