the galah

Interesting that the above comments illustrate that there are some people who actually like it. As i have said earlier,ithink its a total turn off myself. The person who i happened to watch a couple of races with earlier today moaned about it every time they went to the drone coverage. I was discussing the races at ashburton last week with someone,and guess what,they were moaning about the drone coverage before i said anything. So each to their own.

Personally i think its quite rare that you get overs for favorites when the markets come out. What you do get,in my opinion,is some market movers who are favorites and you could say well if only i had got on earlier. Personally i think that approach greatly oversimplifies things and misses the big picture. If you want an example of what i mean.Just look at the whales selections. 100% of the time they are market movers inwards. If you want to lose,back the whales selections.Its guaranteed.Its not because he is a poor judge,he is a very good judge,but his selections are exactly the ones the tab wants you to bet on.That is,horses with a good winning chance who they open at shorter than realistic odds,then can create them as win movers in,and attract even more betting at reducing odds,which are even greater in the TAB's overall favour. Your guaranteed to lose overall because you don't make money betting on horses that open up paying about 70% of what is a realistic dividend,let alone at the further reduced price. As proof of what i have just said,on another forum they have been keeping a record this month of his selections,because like on here,most believe the tab promote him,because he is their biggest asset to sucker punters in to backing on horses at unrealistic prices.. His strike rate is 33 selctions for 8 winners and 11 placings. Pretty good really.That is until you look at his returns.For a $1 e/w hes losing about 18% of his money. 75% of the horses hes selected ,who have placed ,have paid $1.50 or less for a place.5 of his 8 winners have paid under $2.30. So for the whale to have broken even,he would have to be getting on at odds at least 18% higher than what other punters are mostly getting on at. Maybe he is,but if you think you are going to beat the TAB by betting on FF on most races,trust me you won't . I recently was told by a bookie that i returned a profit 16 months in a row,so thats why they have a system set up which will see anything i back,reducing in odds. Now i used to be a person who bet on every harness race run in nz every year. Well i have come to the realisation that while i could still make money,since the bookies target my account,it will never be at the rate i did before,and now i simply find that the level of profit no longer justifies the amount of time needed to achive that. So i simply have all but given up betting on most races. And i'm a punter who used to put 90% of my betting on the tote. I had more and more changed to fixed odds as the tote prices were being reduced because the tab was monitoring my account and reducing the ff odds,thus reducing the tote odds as they always follow. Now i believe you can still make money,but for me i believe no more good sized tote betting. I believe the the way to make money now is,as nowornever has suggested,recognise what horses are over the odds when the initial markets come out. Now i've been watching,and i would say that on average there is only 1 or 2 of those at most a day,that can win.Some days none at all. I do agree with nowornever that roughies blow out in price near the end,but i have also been keeping a close eye on how the tab bookies operate in that respect. Most of the times that only occurs in the last minute or two and interestingly,sometimes after the markets seem to have closed. For example nowornever last week you discussed the horse portelli. Well i van tell you i actuallly tried to back that horse a place as they were lining up. The price that came up jumped to $9 as i tried to get it on,but the tote closed as they staryed before i could confirm it. Well when i looked at the website it had portelli closed at $11 ff place. Well, to me it was jsut another example of the ff odds being adjusted after people can no longer get a bet on.

Some tracks do have rough crossings but i think motukarara's is pretty good. I often wonder whether the occasional horse that breaks there is as much about horses noticing the change in colour of the grassed surface of the crossing. Personally i don't worry about whether horses come from the back anywhere myself. I only worry about where they finish.If they are good enough to come from well back but not quite get there,then its up to the driver to make a move a bit earlier. I also think harness racing,like any out door sport is best on warm days. I guess some peoples plans for the day may be effected,but i'm sure the majority who intended going today will look forward to going on a warmer day next week. The only down side would be if it impacted the size of the fields for other meetings next week. Also,i think taking into consideration how a track will hold up if it did get rain on the day,is a valid thing to consider. Grass tracks that get cut up due to racing on wet ground effectes the future quality of that tracks racing surface. Methven gets a lot of use with their trials and workouts as well.So why wouldn't it be a consideration when they can run the meeting a few days later and not cause that issue.

Did you think he was throwing a dummy pass? I see he has only been training the winner for 2 or 3 weeks. Maybe it just went better than he thought it would. B barclay who drove it also elected to stay on the pylons at the 1200,but got off near the 700m. The winning of the race was when he made his move and he got around them while the pace was still just average.i think B barclay just made better tactical moves. That was a strange race where it looked like the drivers all expected the p williamson trained favorite would win,and they all just drove a bit negatively. Seemed a strange move for b williamson,driving the 2nd favorite, to give the lead away to his stablemate with 1000m to go after setting a rather slow pace. I guess he must have thought the favorite would be too good,but it just stopped.

I noticed it couldn't be accessed for about 3/4 an hour at one point. As to todays races. Southland has become a lot like auckland or addington on some friday nights. So many favorites and hard to find anything worth betting on these days. smaller size fields than there used to be seems to be a major contributing cause.. Then in some races you have the ferguson trained runners and you know no point backing against them as they generally win easy and can often run unheard of fast times. They had a non win horse run 2.54.4 for 2400m last week. Must be pretty demoralising for the locals having to compete in races like that and if you were thinking about racing a canterbury horse down there,you would think twice. 7 winners today paid under $3.90. 1 did pay $20 but it was a first starter and had only ran at oamaru trials where there is no video coverage. Missile paid $11 but he was a risk as he went awful the start prior. He's a meister at $6 was one you could have backed. The whale had tipped nutcracker in that race so was no value and life of art,while looking a standout on recent form,you had to be weary because the well backed hoffman runner in the previous race had been a flop.Its a stable i find hard to predict myself so generally look for something else,if anything. The whale did get the one winner today,the coaster. It opened at $2.70 which seemed a nice price but only the whale would have got on at that price as it immediately dropped when he backed it yesterday,like everything he tips does. But the point is,it was only a year or two ago that i used to look forward to southland meetings as it was a place that still had some winners that paid reasonable dividends. But i don't even bet in half the races there anymore. I would only spend about 1/20th of what i used to at southland meetings not that long ago. I would say the bookies seem pretty on to it with some of their favorites. Sea fury only paying $2.50 seemed well under a realistic price,but it won easy. Falcons watch at $2.70 was a crazy one given his recent form,but he actually managed to run 4th so they weren't far away with there price. I noted there was only about 21 different drivers who drove today,of which a handful were owner trainers who drove there own.Maybe thats where the drop off in participation has been. At least we have methven tommorow. Sounds like it will be very cold. The mile racing is a bit different,but its just a matter of factoring that in when making selections i suppose. I've just looked at the ff dividends.It seems only 1 i like is paying slightly more than it should,but its off ur and not sure whether the driver will make a move early enough,so a risky bet. i did like americano,but hes only paying $3 which seems too short even if i think he may win. Apatchoffold only paying $2.50 another i like that really is too short to be worth backing. Stephs boy may look a top chance,but at $1.90 not worth betting on. I have just looked and the whale has tipped americano and stephs boy,so thats probably why they paying such silly prices. Anywat thats my ramblings about todays racing.

I have been reading the weekly trial updates from a form analyst that they have on the HRNZ website. Whoever does it is doing a good job. It must take a bit of time to watch them all but whoever it is seeems to be able to recognise potential winners. I think its been a good innovation.

i see the caufield cup winner was only passed fit to race 3 days prior to the race. Apparently the trainers said hes just lazy when being trotted up for inspection. You should watch aardies express warming up next time you see it run.Obviously it races fine and i'm sure they would have had the vet go over it thoroughly to see if it has a problem. Hopefully it doesn't effect its longevity.

I see it hasn't taken long before some clubs have gone back to reducing their stakes to the same as what they were before all the hype about increased stakes because of extra funding. For example ,all the methven races this week are for only $10,000. Isn't methven one of the richest clubs asset wise? then at winton they even have a non win race for only $8,000. Southland used to be a province that said non win races were a priority and should always have good stakes.Thats obviously no longer the case. I guess some of these clubs must be struggling just to get by, as they don't appear to be paying out the full prizemoney that HRNZ supposedly are funding them.Can't figure out why methven so stingy though. Was it all just smoke and mirrors? Stake increases over hyped yet again. we've seen it all before ,which is why the above was predicted,unfortunately.

I agree that Aardies express is a huge talent.Surprising they didn't leave it in the nz cup as it would have been a top 3 chance.I think its the most talented horse that stable has had so far. The only thing is everytime they show it warming up, it looks sore to me. It must be one tough horse or maybe have some sort of treatment to help it overcome that. I agree akuta has 3 or 4 lengths on the best of the others. Yesterday it was surprising that the driver didn't have it anywhere near the tape and that lead to it settling towards the back. The one thing you can say about standing starts is 90% of horses who start behind the others in the middle of a field,will nearly always be slow away. Vice versa applies. The horses up on the tape have a far better chance of beginning well and normally do. The only time there is an exception to that rule is when a horse has drawn wide and it gets some space early. That race was yet another example of what i have just said. Nathan williamson had his horse right up on the tape and his horse was 1st away,o thornley and s o'reilly had their horses back from the tape and they were the slowest away apart from the ur horse.Thats where races often are won and lost and the likes of blair orange and sam ottley are experts at having their horses well positioned at the start.Obviously the horses manners are a factor,but the likes of american me and akuta are safe beginners. Having said that ,olivia thornley made the move on akuta at just the perfect time and handled the pressure well. good to see muscle mountain back in winning form.Ben hope let him roll earlier yesterday and Oscar bonavena had to maintain his sprint longer.Oscar bonevena may be able to match muscle mountain for speed over 250m,but obviously muscle mountain can go another 300 at that speed when oscar can't. The drone coverage being shown after the race as you suggest, does make more sense if they are to keep using it. That way people who don't like it can do something else without missing anything when the race is actually being run.

For an example look at the coverage of race 10. In particular look at the drone coverage down the back straight. What you can tell is all the drivers are wearing white pants. One horse has a red dust sheet,another a blue. Thats it,the drivers colours can't be picked up.

A top days racing at ashburton today,but the trackside coverage of the first part of many races was ruined for me by the drone coverage.It just makes it so confusing. If they are to persist in showing something that i know many viewers hate,can they at least split the screen and show the normal coverage so people like me can see where there horse is. The reason i say that is pretty obvious. How can trackside ignore that with the drone coverage its only possible for viewers to follow the one horse,you do that by fixating on its movement from the start point? As to where the other horses are in the race,there is simply no way any viewer can focus on several runners. Its roo hard from the drone coverage to follow the movements in the first 200m.Its hard enough to follow one,let alone 14. I've tried it and i can't do it and i know every horse and its colours.Its especially true in the bigger fields Compare that to a normal shot and anyone watching can tell you where every horse is.

I just read mr butterfly"s headlines,not a subscriber. I think he has good instincts myself, but if he's suggesting the hope's a have a potion then i'm pretty sure he is wrong. To me,the hope trained horses have never run like they have ever used a potion.

No doubt ben hope used all his knowledge and also tapped into the wise heads of those who run and work at the hope stable to get the improvement in pure courage. Certainly was a major improvement but i'm sure it just came down to skill that saw the turnaround in form. I don't know mr james ,the previous trainer,but i think he does a nice job and red harbour has been a star for his stable. I do remember talking to a trainer who once pulled off a similar win with a horse that he bought from mr james,. It too won first up and they pulled off a winning punt. From memory that trainer told me how mr james was a hard working person who he sometimes would see race his horses at night some distance away,then be would see him drive past early in the morning on the way to work. I like seeing people like that do well and red harbour is one of my favorites. i wonder where he is at the moment. Anyway ben hope must have seen something in pure courage that others may not have and has reaped the rewards. Interesting that they put it in the amateur race. Horses just seem to always run for the wigg sisters. Forbury i think your being a tough judge on mr hope's driving. Your entitled to your opinion and i agree sometimes he can be a bit frustrating from a punting perspective,but his record shows he's one of the best when it comes to drivers of trotters in nz,not just the good ones.i think he drives the pacers ok ,just does tend to drive a bit for luck more with the pacers and doesn't always get it. And punters always like seeing the horse with their money on get a run at the right time,even if that isn't a realistic expectation.

i think the dunn stable has dropped off in performance just in the last 3 weeks. Since the 8th of october,in the south island they have had 37 starters. Of those 37 starters, 5 were favorites,4 second favorites and 4 third favorites. They have ran 2 seconds and 2 thirds from those 37 starters. Their current yearly udr is .2566,so the latest 2 weeks results clearly indicate a drop off in form. Personally i think its been noticeable. All stables have there runs,its just this one seems to have seen a slight drop off in most of their teams performances,in my opinion. Prior to that they had been going great,which is the norm for them mostly. Some may say,thats being a bit negative,i don't think so myself,i'm just quoting the stats to make the point i made earlier. One thing about the dunns is they are known for their consistency and because of that are good to follow. One stable i have trouble following is the R Todd stable. Its like about 3 weeks ago,in just a few days he took 9 horses to the races. Only one managed to not run last,or 2nd last if he had 2 in the same race. When the Todd trained horses run well,they run very well,but its hard guessing just when that will be sometimes.

I backed just the one tonight. Jahi race 11. the equal 2nd favorite..I thought he had the perfect draw.I have noticed,in my opinion,all the dunn team have been running about 3 lengths below what they had 3 weeks ago and thought the $2 favorite they had in that race would underperform. Unfortunately as to my pick,well i just can't work out that drive. Bob butt tried hard but couldn't quite make the trail,but still ended up in the perfect 1/1 sit following the other equal 2nd favorite. To my amazement he gave up that position and switched to 3 back the fence after 700m.. In that move it appeared he virtually gave up any chance he had, with the race unfolding as expected from there with him not getting a clear runfrom the position he elected to place it. The horse who was following him originally took his position in the 1/1 and got the perfect run,as you could see would happen, and won. I know i'm talking through my pocket,but what was going on with that drive?

A well written article. terrible decision after terrible decision by those who ran the ATC.Did they ever get anything right? Interesting that they choseto lose tens of millions of $ by not invoking the sunset clauses. Mind boggling that those who ran the ATC would rather have the ATC ruined financially than do that.They must have known that. Ask yourself this. Would the people like the Bruce Carter mentioned,have done the same if it was his money that he could recover. I think he would have. If you were cynical you could say,Oh well,only the ruin of trotting in the north island. Not a big deal. PActually its just realism,not cynicism.

Thats the point isn't it. The current leadership have worked hard and may well be able to continue,but going forward are they going to have the income to match their expenditure,given they have sold the majority of their prized assets that generated previous income. Lets be honest,we need to look back and see the justification they used to proceed with the project in 2014. In media reports from the likes of barry lichter,it quoted kerry hoggard,ATC chairman as saying the justification for taking on the very risky development was... They needed to generate further income to carry on as their income sources were being eaten away. And here we are in 2023 ,with things so much worse. It must be remembered that as well as the latest 100million of assets sold,they also sold other revenue generating assets worth over $50 million a couple of years ago. So the obvious question is,if they couldn't sustain harness racing in auckland when they had all the assets and income back in 2014,then how could they possibly do it now? Actually its interesting to read an article that Barry Lichter wrote in 2014.It was concerning the meeting of ATC members who voted resoundingly in favour of the proposed development. It seems only 6 voted against it. Kerry hoggard said they could indeed pocket $30 million up front and not get into the property development business,but that they were worried the developerm would get close to $25 m and they would only be ledt with $5m.By becoming property developers themselves they would increase their assets by $42m. One member at the meeting,a gavin logan, a former property developer himself,called the decision as MADNESS,saying you simply don't appreciate all the risks until you do it. He said property development is the most dangerous game you can play. He said we all know of the finance companies that went broke in the last financial crisis,well this proposed project is exactly the type of project that sent them broke"... Anyway while they may live to fight another day,for how long is the answer.

So Barry lichter has just written an informative story on the state of finances at the ATC.Good on him for actually informing people.No one else in nz media or hrnz seems to have thought the future of harness racing in the north island deserved any coverage. Although he doesn't actually say it,reading between the lines what he has wriiten,it appears the ATC can indeed continue operating at alexandra park in the future. This seems to be conditional on the settlement of the sale agreement of the current training facilities at pukekohe which they sold for $100million.It seems it all comes down to whether the sale proceeds and according to J mackinnon,ATC president,its expected it will do so.The hold up has been things like council and evironment court consents,but they have now come through. Should the sale not be confirmed as expected,then it will get trickier as the club is paying $100,000 a week interest on their borrowings from the failed developments.The ATC owe $78 million and will pay over $5 million more before the balance of the purchase price is settled(in 12 months). Its unreal to think just how bad a decision makers that the ATC had on their board previously, to have put their club in such a terrible state from the development decision,but you can't change history and the ATC may still have a bit of life left in it. They obviously aren't out of the woods totally as they have sold the training facilities so many auckland trainers use and now have just a couple of years and only 15-20 million dollars to find somewhere and develop it in the next 2 years as a training centre. Jamie Mackinnon obviously is a pretty single minded person who seems to have unnecessarily annoyed a few people ,but if you look at his achiebement to bring the club back from the brink,perhaps he deserves a lot of credit should the club be able to continue. Also the ATC now want HRNZ to contribute $ towards the new facilities. That seems a bit rich that the ATC would expect the likes of south island clubs and trainers/drivers/owners to pay for their incompetence.Then again maybe HRNZ may end up doing that. My suggestion if they do consider that,would be to cancel the extra $8000 they will be paying to the winners of 2yold races next year. In other words some of the decision makers at hrnz would be benefitting from the 2 y old bonus,so make them have a consequence to a decison t provide the ATC funds,should they do so.

Not really.I know he is a good reporter though. I find ray green may be a very good trainer but i don't rate him as a tipster going by the comments he makes about his runners each week. Maybe mr greens tipping has got better since i stopped reading what he had to say? I do check into the lincoln farm website if they have one of their horses running in queensland. Their trainer over there,M DUX seems very accurate with his predictions.

I once talked to a consultant from auckland who was in town giving advise to the local council. He had many years experience in that field. This was at a time when the development had just started and there were inital delays. At the time a couple of other similar projects in auckland were reportedly in trouble. When i asked him about the ATC development his comments were along the lines that yes they can make good money but that he found it surprising the ATC were taking on such a venture outside their wheelhouse given all the pitfalls that could occur and given there were many examples to prove that such a big project could easily fall off the rails for several reasons. I remember him smiling and saying something along the lines that we will just have to wait and see how that turns out for them. At the time i thought that he doesn't sound very positive and he says hes an expert in giving advice on such projects. By the way gammalite. I just watched a race at albion park. I noticed the number 2 horse almost doubled its dividend in the last 2 minutes. A horse called Archilles driven by matt elkins. To me it looked like a clear case of M elkins getting a good run through good luck as the race unfolded,then with 400m to go the driver realising he may actually get somewhere unless he steers it to the inside so to ensure it ran nowhere. i watch things like that and think why do people bother betting on racing in queensland when you have drivers seemingly fixing races.

How come it takes an australian to inform new zealanders about what may be happening in nz harness. Is the auckland trotting club just another of those no go topics that the nz harness media don't talk about? According to the peter profit headline which anyone can read if they google it...it quotes the auditors report ...as at 31 july 2023 the ATC lost another $6.8 million for the year ended 31 july 2023 and that as at that date, its liabilities exceed its assets by $47.3 million....and that the auditors had signiicant doubt that it should continue as a going concern. several times before i have pointed out the lack of and subsequently proven inaccurate information that some racing journalists have peddled in relation to the ATC in the past.Nowdays they don't do that,they just ignore the subject and say they can't talk about it because its sensitive business infromation. Is this not further proof that people should be skeptical of much of what the harness media say around sensitive subjects and that certain media have a..Head in the sand ...attitude.. Also,if the auckland trotting club continues to rack up the massive losses and the auditors are saying they should stop trading,then why are they still going. Shouldn't they just accept the inevitable and fold before the debt goes even higher.. And given all that why no comment from hrnz to stakeholers about what,if any plans there are to enable harness racing in the north island to continue. Does the silence mean that they have no credible plans ?

You did well to analyse the form and recognise that a win may come soon for that horse. It started at 60/1 i think.I know when you do the study and have one of them come home and pay a big place dividend like portelli did,that it can be very satisfying. Horses that start at those prices and end up running somewhere are getting harder to find these days. I think the punters that are still betting these days mostly have good knowledge of the form.The number of uninformed punters betting is dropping and that is why its getting harder to find a horse at a good price that actually delivers. I also know that when you do spot one at long odds like portelli,that your hoping it gets the right run and pays a dividend before others recongnise its potential and its future potential dividends are significantly shortened.

Nice picture to make your point. But that picture is at the 200m just as the horse in the trail has moved into the passing lane . 50m later the gap is closed and unlikely portelli could have picked up the 2 lengths to take the gap in such a short distance.Also i'm not sure pulling the hood earlier when he was still on the back of the trailing horse would have achieved anything. Sure it may have perked him up a little but he also may have had to take hold and lose momentum just prior to the passing lane had the horse got keen. I just think being an inexperienced non win trotter its hard to see how the driver did anything that cost him a chance of a closer finish.Also he did break the previous start in the home straight and the driver would have been aware of wanting to keep him in a nice rhythm to ensure he didn't this time as well..We will have to agree to disagree,but i can see your point.

I agree with your comments about the cameron drive.Just following a horse who's form indicated it would not take it into the race. But as you say she was driving a horse that always seems to be driven for one late run at them,so maybe just following instructions. As to the portelli drive.In my opinion I don't think it had a clear run at any stage and didn't see anything wrong with the driver taking a couple of seconds to see if a gap would appear before he pulled the earplugs. Not much point in driving into a non existant gap.

I accept everything you say there but believe their are many successful trainers who take those steps.Obviously the willingness of owners to pay costs associated with what you say is a factor.But many of those trainers once viewed as top trainers simply are not able to match a couple of stables when it comes to the big races. So the dominance of a couple of stables in the big races and the perceived improvement seen on those big days leads people to lose hope of ever owning or training a big race winner.Many people used to once have hopes and aspirations of owning a big race winner but thats not todays reality. That has been a factor in the industries base of participants diminishing in numbers. Not the only reason but certainly an important one.