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Bit Of A Yarn

the galah

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Everything posted by the galah

  1. Yes. The first birthday of horses born since last year no longer counts.Thats for all foals born prior to 31 december,which would i guess be about 98%.They turn 0 on their first birthday and turn 1 on their 2nd birthday,etc. Previously they turned 1 on their first birthday when it was 1 august.Thats one of the reasons its confusing.
  2. I see since 19 july 48 harness horses have been exported to china from nz. of the 48... 43 are mares or fillies,12 are aged 9-11.. 1 is aged 13 but she was sold with yearling filly foal as well. 5 males.. but 1 of those is 1yo and with its mother. The other are No terror(4yo 4win n stallion) ,2 yearling colts,one of whom its half sister was exported earlier in the year. 1 3yo colt. Thats a lot of horses going to china. 28 went to australia and the USA in that time frame. theres a handful of mares who had been racing this season.I would say theres a definite patter in most of the type of mares being sold. I guess when it comes to the figures when it comes to what happens to many of the harness horses once they are no longer racing propositions,hrnz can say ... number were exported rather than are now dead i suppose. Maybe some will claim its better for the horses that way,hopefully some do end up in good homes,but that seems very debatable. No one is coming forward with any knowledge of their fate.
  3. I wonder how hrnz updates the ages in their system given the january 1 birthday doesn't get applied in a horses first year of birth. i.e. born on say 1.10.22 doesn't have a birthday on 1 january 2023,but turns 1 on 1 january 2024. Maybe they created some new type of computer programme to get around it? And i wonder what they do in the usa,because a nz 2 year old born before 1 january is in fact a 3 year old by usa standards.
  4. It takes a while to get legislation through parliament.They need to change the racing act.Several parliamentary sittings involved .Has to be drafted,then has 3 readings,may be referred to select committee then it is ranked priority wise as to whether it goes before parliament. HRNZ would have known that when they decided to change.No denying its confused most people.
  5. Its not about the need to be right.You may think thats my aim,but i know myself better.I just say what i think and never worry whether someone disagrees.Debating things on bit of a yarn gives me something to do when i'm bored and helps me use my brain which doesn't get as much use as it should to stay sharp. Besides I haven't been suggesting you were wrong when you say 6 months more age on a young horse before its pressured in training will help its longevity. Thats a given. I have been discussing whether changing 2 races to the end of the year will cause trainers/owners to give their horses more time to develop when you consider the $12,000 extra they get when getting the first 2 year old win throughout the year. My point has been most trainers will still race them when they are ready to race,not before,not after.
  6. Showing only that part of my comment does not put what i said anywhere near the context if you read what i have said in total. Thats like me saying to you Your kidding? you won the 2 higher stakes races in december and you had no idea 6 months earlier that could happen.. Or gee,how stupid do you feel. You had my horse ready to win the $12,000 bonus in march,but you gave him a bit of time to develop because you were sure he would win those 2 big races in december.By the way,your fired as my trainer.
  7. I was just reading how the Breeder of brookies jaffa got an $1100 bonus when it won the other night. Apparently it can go up to $10000 if its bred to a nz bred stallion. Michael house seemingly thinks its a great idea. But heres what confuses me. Your rewarding a breeder for the decision he made 9 years ago to go to a sire that was nz bred,when obviously 9 years ago the decision to go to auckland reactor would have had nothing whatsoever to do with receiving bonus's. Theres no way the owner could have factored in that in 9 years time HRNZ would change things to help him,just as there is no way other breeders who didn't bred to a nz bred,knew they were excluding themselves from any bonus. Now here we are 2023 and they have announced these bonus's . Ask yourself this. What guarantee have you got that HRNZ won't change their breeding incentive policy in 3 or 4 years. The last one only lasted 1 year. It doesn't make much sense to me how this currently works.Surely it would have been best to use the funds being paid to brookies jaffas owner and instead guarantee those who go to a nz bred this year will receive the bonus's promised.
  8. Akuta won 2 group 1 races in May when a 2 year old. So he would have been under the same pressure as krug to get ready for the big 2 year old races in may of his year as krug would have been. But it makes sense when you say its what Aluta and Krug were asked to do racing starts wise after that, which lead to Akuta having a much better chance at a longer racing career age wise. To say that trainers will not pressure their 2 year olds to race early now they have moved a couple of races to latter in the year is assuming the trainers think they have a horse that is good enough to do so. They had to make the same call just it was 5 months earlier anyway and it is only for a couple of races after all. Did anyone use the argument about the jewels being a bad thing in reducing a horses longevity when the jewels was around. Those suggesting it now seemed rather silent then. Hrnz has put forward the same argument of suggesting trainers will not pressure their horses as early simply because the birthdays have changed. Well its hard to take them seriously because it is HRNZ that has prioritized 2 year old racing over all other and said we will pay the connections an extra $12000 when you win your first 2 year old race.That is a totally contradictory message they are sending out. Does anyone seriously think trainers will not want to find out whether they have a 2 year old good enough to win early and instead wait and take their chances of becoming the very top 2 year old and winning 2 races in december. No ones ever been able to explain yet why HRNZ,through the $12,000 extra,considers 2 year old winners more important than any horse 3 and above.
  9. I have always thought the way to attract young people into the sport is exposure through the family connection. Firstly you have to look at the age demographics of those that bet on horse racing and the age of the owners and attendees on racetracks. They are pretty much all similar for all three groups. It is those that are over about 45,more men than women. The highest participation seems to be the 50-70 age group. why is that. Well the most obvious and important answer is they have enough money to do so. Of course theres other reason as well,but without being financially able to bet or own or afford to take their family to the races,they would not be there. Now not many people seem to think like me,(which i never understand),but it is this age group who the industry should always be targeting to attract more of their like,because its pretty obvious that any investment of time or money is going to achieve better results if you focus on the area where you will get the greatest return. To me its just plain common sense.What business that ever hopes to survive uses their resources to target people who they will get the least returns from.The answer to that is a business that is destined to shrink and fail. Its from that platform and thinking that you then develop a strategy that encourages the over 45 years to bring their younger families to the races,thus gaining that exposure and sowing the seeds of future participation in the sport when the younger generations reach the point of financial stability as they grow older. That is why its so important that harness racing put promotional funds into the venues that are family friendly and create an experience on course of enjoyment,relaxation and fun.And of course harness racing has those venues. They are the grass track meetings and grass track meetings are run during the time of year when the weather,which is so important for attendance,is at its best. Grass track meetings should be marketed as family days.Its already where people and families go so once again your target should be to attract more of the same type customer.Obviously that type of promotion is only realistic over the warmer months. These sunday winter meetings at addington are essential for so many reasons,but they will never attract many as the atmosphere and setting isn't attractive. Its not the racing thats much different,its the weather and surroundings that are. Therefore those running those meetings should focus on what they can do for their core customer.i.e. The 40 and over age group. A start would be having somewhere warm where they could sit and watch. Seems pretty basic that,but addington on a sunday doesn't have it.
  10. Yes your correct there chief. Horses birthdays,premierships are from january to december. My take on it is the confusion arose right from the start when they first made the change and said they were having a transitional season. If the racing season was to remain august to july because that was what was in the racing act and they couldn't change that ,then why did they use the words transitional season? The fact that most are still confused is proof they did a poor job of explaining it all.
  11. I went to addington last week ,the first time for a couple of years. I left after 2 races because it just wasn't doing anything for me.The only part of the stand that was open was the bar at the bottom next to the birdcage. It appeared to be relatively busy but i guess that was because it wasn't a big area and was the only place anyone could go.I had hoped to go and sit out of the cold behind the glassed area above the bar,but that was all closed up. I don't understand why they locked that up. I looked around in the area where the seats are in front of that glassed area and everyone looked pretty much the same,like they were cold even though the sun was out.As far as having a bet. The totes were open in the bar area once i found them. They only had 3 operators working,but i placed my bets just 1 minute before race start and both times was the only one placing a bet. I spoke to just 1 person,who i did not know,and we reminisced about what things used to be like after i asked him where to place a bet. He told me he still comes to addington but not as much. He said he used to go to the nz cup religiously,but doesn't anymore as last time it had cost him $70 to enter and and all he did was have to stand up the straight all day. I can see why hardly anyone turns up. I wouldn't go again. As you point out,it is winter and has been very cold and wet everywhere,but addington in winter is not an inviting place. They need to at least let the public use the facilities they have,i.e. a glassed in area and they need to reward people that go to these type of meetings with some sort of system that can get them a discount on the days when they are charged for like nz cup day. For example they could have a scan in system and say each time someone goes to addington on a lower key meeting they scan in and as a result receive a $5 reduction on the entry fee on the bigger days.Or at least some type of reward at some stage during the year. That way you would also identify who actually attends these meetings and could maybe target them with promotions. We live in a world where regular customers are rewarded with something. Why ,because it works. E.g. Like using a discount card at the supermarket.
  12. The racing season wouldn't be going back as it never changed in the first place. Its still august to july like its always been.
  13. He might have to start driving them himself. His anchor in tonights quaddie, Le major(ben butcher) waited until the lights were almost out before making his run,flying home for 3rd.
  14. I understand where your coming from,i just don't agree that there were many trainers who had been pushing their horses to race in the higher stake races in april/may anyway.I thought the most popular thought was,whats the point running them early because only 2 or 3 stables win those races.Better off to give them another 4-6 months to develop.So i think not much will change other than the winners will be the horse thats in the best form in november instead of may.As you say,that may give some horses more time to catch up on those that were earlier developers. The reason you will get more 2 year olds racing latter in the year is because you already had lots of 3 year olds doing that,so now you change those 3 year olds back to aged 2,obviously that means there will be more 2 year olds race. Why would a horse that previously was not ready to race until november be at an advantage when in reality he will be racing the very same horses that he would have been prior to the change.
  15. I don't agree with your assessment there doomed. I think its written in a way thats easy to understand.Have you read the whole survey? Having the opportunity to express an opinion to the decision makers has got to be a good thing. I think your a bit out of touch if you think the trainers and drivers and owners are happy just racing at addington.Don't think they are the ones driving the centralization strategy. When you say the topics raised in the survey is unlikely to get much comment on here. I would say where have you been? I would suggest you fill the survey in. You should fill the survey in as well nowornever.You have opinions worth hearing. It would be a strange strategy for hrnz to conduct a survey,get results which indicate people have opinions the same as yours nowornever,then have hrnz implement changes that the survey results indicate aren't supported by its participants. Now that may happen,but that doesn't seem to make much sense. So i think you should fill the survey in ,in good faith so to speak,and see what the overall results of it are. The problem with racing in canterbury over winter is the weather is so bad that who wants to train horses in the rain all the time. It started raining about 6 months ago and has hardly stopped since.Bring on el nino.
  16. To the whales credit,he has changed things around a bit this week. Hes given a preview of the late quaddies at this weeks harness meetings. That will confuse the bookies at the tab a bit and they won't be able to use his knowledge to sucker in punters as easy. Giving a more varied preview where he says in some legs there may be a standout, but in other legs there are 3 or 4 main chances,at least gives the punters some good advice while inviting them to use some of their own brain power if they want to select just one of those mentioned. Also there is a greater possiblity of higher returns if punters do invest on his suggested quaddie and it came home..
  17. Oh and i have discovered why HRNZ said horses birthdays, the premierships and all that which go from january 1 to december 31, are different from the racing season which is still 1 august to 31 july. Its because the racing act refers to the season as being from august to july and it takes some time to change such things. And of course factor in the thoroughbreds have never changed so that would mean that also means changes in the racing act,thats why it is as it is. The result is 2 years on and people are still confused about the harness racing season
  18. Its actually an interesting subject and i think there was always more logical reasons to keep things as they were and not change. The main reason seemed to be because australia have done it,we had to. Now when a horse oficially turns 1 its really about 1 year 1-2 months old whereas in the past that same horse might have only been 10-11 months old. Sure they may be better developed when it comes time for the bigger races that could be programmed later in the season,but its only the select few that run in those races. They aren't actually adding anything to a horses racing longevity. HRNZ claimed there is scientific evidence it extends a horses racing career.How on earth do you get scientific evidence around something when its never had a chance to be tested? Thats like claiming the covid vaccine has no long term side effects for anyone. Its a bit like moving the goal posts while at the same time moving the field so as to compensate for the goalposts being moved. The aussies also said it brought them in line with the horses born in the likes of the USA. That seemed a strange argument because the reason the recognised birthdays was different was because the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere have different climate seasons.That one is a bit of a no brainer so there was never any logic in that one. Thoroughbreds in the southern hemisphere haven't changed. They seem to recognise that the climate seasons are the major factor in when horses come into season and are born,and base there seasons around that. Both aussie and hrnz said they hoped it may increase numbers being bred. That was like saying i wish the sun comes out in christchurch each day over winter. It was nothing but wishful thinking and never deserved a mention. There were other reasons given,but they weren't convincing either. What i wonder about was how it will effect the timeframes around mares being bred. For example we had a mare who always carried her foals about 11 months 3 weeks. a couple of times we only sent her to stud in late december and she had foals that were born after january 1.She was always easy to get in foal(no additives earlier in life always helped that),but won't they now limit some mares from being served after january 1. Like i said its an interesting subject.
  19. The confusion certainly seems to be in the wording of some of the previous press statements from HRNZ. Its confusing anyone who reads them. The latest press release seems to say there is a harness racing year from 1 january to 31 december but at the same time there is a harness racing season from 1 august to 31 july.It says that in the latest press release on hrnz. Back on 6 august 2021 they said there was a transitional season between 1 august 2021 and 31 december 2021...... so you would have thought that meant the new season started on 1 january. Then in that same press release said the premierships would be january to december and horses birthdays on 1 january. It reminds me of one of those early scream movies ...its the perfect crime cindy,BUT WAIT,THERES MORE.... Now they have always said they will do the renewing of licences at the tradional time,on 31 july so at least that part wasn't confusing. They never changed when the future racing dates would be released,but that never seemed to get much of a mention. But wait theres more......the new funding of stakes came into effects from 1 august,but did all the increases start then....well no,the 2 year old bonus comes into effect from 1 january next year. Now back in 2021 they said in a couple of press releases there seems to be some confusion over when the new season starts.......Ya reckon much has changed? Those early scream movies were much funnier than the latest one that came out a couple of years ago. Maybe more appropriate would be that music from the tv series soap that was so popular back in the late 1970's early 80's. The one that normally ended with...confused,tune in next week...
  20. Who really has the answers for what happens in china. Thats the point.. Theres an undeniable link between pregnant female horses and the use of a product taken from their blood to help reproduction in livestock,primarily pigs. Currently china is importing 100% female horses from nz. Maybe its the free trade agreement that helps. Nz was one of only 26 countries that had one with china in 2022. Chinas the largest importer of donkeys yet they have the 2nd highest number in the world.China still this year importing as many donkeys as they can get their hands on from africa.Africa has the most donkeys in the world(ethiopia having the most) . Many african countries now have banned the legal donkey trade with china due to it pushing the donkeys prices too high in their countries.. horses were listed as the 559th most traded product in the world. Canada seems to rank 8th as the exporter of horse meat.European countries are their biggest markets. Canada now has a lucrative live horse export market with japan.They get fattened up and sold for horsemeat. Those horses reportedly sell for between $8-9,000 in japan.Thats canadian $ so would be about $11,000 nz dollars. So obviously if the horse is valued at something similar for the horsemeat in a country like china,then surely it follows they would be valued far greater if they could be used in a blood farm. Its a strange old world sometimes. All about the money i suppose.
  21. So if you look at the stakes being paid out by clubs who have received the extra funding its pretty obvious some clubs have not passed on the extra funding in most of their races. Take the races at addington on sunday. Most of the races are being run for $10,000 The hrnz model which said the stakes would be increased, referred to the provincial standard meetings getting $11,500 per race. So in effect thats $1500 per race the club isn't passing on. ($12,000 for the whole day). Furthermore,the stakes are just the same as they were at the end of last year. The meeting on friday at addington i assume is classed as a metro 2 meeting(the lower funded of the metro meetings according to the hrnz model) For that the clubs are funded $15,000 a race. Yet most races are only being run for $13-14,000. Overall $8000 less being paid out than they are funded. Compare that to aucklands next thursday meeting. Auckland has passed on the extra funding. Ashburton the same with their stakes- $10,000. Methven have increased their stakes to $11,000. Winton intend paying mostly stakes of $12,000. So like we have seen before,these supposed stakes increases often never materialise. Its all just hot air for some clubs and for other clubs,they are doing their best to pass on the increases. This week,Addington have no one to compete against to attract horses as the only 2 meetings in the whole of the south island are at addington. Thats why they know,well if you don't race here,you can't race anywhere else ,so we will take a bit of your money and probably put it into the higher class races down the track. If history is anything to go by,addington will only pass on the extra funding when they have to compete against other canterbury clubs running meetings the same week.
  22. I'm not a subscriber to peter profit but do occasionally look at his headlines and one that catches the eye is his recent reference to the horses being exported to china.I don't have access to what he has written. Its a topic that i have always found very interesting. Anyone who bothers to have a look at the recent HRNZ exported list must have noticed something odd is going on with the exports to china.Every horse exported to china was female. Numbers wise more than half of the total number of harness horses exported last month from nz went to china. (more than australia) I posted on this topic 3-4 years ago. At the time my comments were viewed as one for the conspiracy theorists,but is peter profit suggesting he has information confirming my theory. The topic i raised was about the possiblilty that the mares/fillies exported to china and in particular inner mongolia, could be destined to a rather frightening eventual fate. To remind people,4-5 years ago swine flu hit the world and china being the biggest producer and consumer of pork was especially hard hit.Between 2018-2019 it was estimated the number of pigs dropped by 225 million, pigs either died or were put down due to the swine flu. Fast forward to today and chinas pig numbers have bounced back to their highest in 5 years. This year china is estimated to have over 452 million pigs,which is over half the worlds total pig population. So whats the connection with nz harness horses.. Well there is massive demand for the pmsg hormone(pregnant mare serum gonadotropin) which when used with progestogen promotes regular ovulation and maintaining pregnancy in pigs and other livestock.In other words pigs ovulate on command so they produce more offspring.It tricks the bodies into producing larger litters of pigs and brings them back into season quicker. So pregnant horses produce this pmsg,known as red gold,early in their pregnancy up to 140 days.Mares being used for this purpose are generally aborted and then reserved so they can again fall pregnant and start the pmsg cycle again. Disturbingly, malnourished mares produce more concentrated pmsg hormone. So given the northern part of china and in particular inner mongolia are the areas in china which have seen big increases in pig farms, is it not beyond being considered a reasonable assumption that if they aren't going to race,WHY WOULDN"T THEY end up at these blood farms. They are so VALUABLE as producers of this hormone. If those exported do give birth,what is the fate of their progeny. Going by what i have read,it seems if they are female they pretty much end up the same as their mothers. Now these blood farms seemingly are all around the world. I knew of one not far from where i once lived. Very secretitive and it eventually moved to way under the southern alps,a long way from prying eyes.I was told it wasn't a big deal in nz at the time and at least in nz they would have some type of regulations and cruelty oversight,but overseas many countries don't. Big pharma worldwide apparently make big money off the blood farms.As to the pig farmers,for example its estimated 4 out 5 german sows have the horse hormone used on them. So its not just china,but china do have some unusual traditions. Like it was only about 10 years ago that china was blamed for cutting africas donkey population in half as they sought to use the donkeys in their medicines. But its china who are taking the nz horses and in particular the areas in china. Which leads to the inevitable. Here i was last week getting this email form HRNZ about a horse in my care that i had given away to a good home 20 years ago.Fair enough,they should keep records,but surely people must be able to see the double standards as relates to all the mares that are being exported to china.Does anyone seriously believe they are going to china for harness racing. It does make you wonder about how the horse is often treated as just a commodity by many.
  23. So he got 2 winners,2 2nds and 1 3rd. from his 8 selections.The highest dividend being a $2.20 winner.That one did open at $3.20 before the whales influence crunched its odds. The hrnz website always has a video clip of his selections yet they never have the unhinged clips. Hard to work it out sometimes.
  24. So to prove the point,take this weeks whale watch selections as an example. He selected 8 starters and 1 scr. Of the 8 starters,6 have or will start hot favorites,with the other 2 starting 2/1 in the betting. All paying unrealistic short odds. When the tab slash his selections ff odds throughout the day,they never lengthen the other horses odds until the very last minute. Its extremely rare for him to tip a horse at a reasonable price. I do remember one that he did because i had thought it would win myself. It was spirited belle about a year ago and it opened at $41 and closed at $11. It could have proven one of the best whale tips ever,but s abernethy the driver failed to get the memo and drove like he was waiting for next week and every move he made blocked it in and it finished hard held.The following week in a similar field it won paying under $3,with the whale tipping it again.
  25. we've all seen the TAB bookmakers open his selections at realistic ff odds,then the whale obviously backs his horses as soon as the markets come out on 2 or 3 accounts,and then the bookmakers immediately slash the odds to about half of what would be a realistic price. There are occasions when his selections odds don't change at that early stage,and i believe they are the times the whale thinks his selections are too far under the realistic odds. So because of this,not long after the ff odds are out,his selections are not at realistic prices and no one should be betting on them for that reason alone. Anyone who claims they can make money from following the trackside whale watch selections overall is either living in the past or simply aren't telling the truth.In one recent period of 3 months i wrote down all his selections and did a profit/ loss record and there was no way you would come out ahead. So the upshot of it all is the whale may be able to make money by getting on at the opening prices,but those who bet on his whale watch selections will not. The question i would ask,by him being on trackside do turnovers increase or decrease.Personally i think trackside have more suitable presenters than him. No one denies his knowledge. But theres no doubt he is an asset for the TAB bookies who do the ff .Thats why they hype him so much on trackside. Harness racing betting pools are clearly dropping. Less people are participating in betting.This has been happening while we see more of the whale and the tab hype his selections more.The whales influence on ff and tote prices has become greater as the betting pools drop.Thats not a good thing.
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