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Everything posted by Joe Kidd
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The whole Ardern is bad but National is good is not only incredibly boring. It's total horseshit. This part of the forum is about horses so perhaps your contribution is appropriate. Some couldn't be more ignorant and naive about the benefits of medicinal cannabis if they tried. The dark ages bullshit and scaremongering from the anti brigade is well under way as we head into the 2020 referendum and we can look forward to much more of the same. Still peddling the same shit that cannabis leads to schizophrenia and weed is a stepping stone to heroin bla bla bla despite that nonsense being comprehensively disproved decades ago . Safe bet that many spouting this baloney were strong advocates for lowering the drinking age. They say fuck all about the carnage we see from alcohol on every level (road deaths, health issues, violence both domestic and general, crime etc etc etc) yet have a loud voice scaremongering about cannabis. How dare anyone have the audacity to show there is another side to the debate. To anyone who wants to see an "educated" side to this debate should watch this doco below. It should be compulsive viewing for every politician.
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Blenheim Trots today. Chance for me to atone for my Burlington tip that went South. Two runners I'm really keen on are both from the same stable. First is in race 7. It's the Margo and Pete trained mare Madeleine Stowe. I tipped her out at Nelson on the second day after a solid first day run. A trotting mare in form invariably hard to beat. She was poorly drawn and no hope with the finish dominated by the runners near the top. Madeleine Stowe ran home well without ever looking a winning hope. If she's any nearer to the top turning in today I believe she is a royal chance of saluting the judge. Stablemate Givemewhatineed starts in the last and I'm picking a hollow victory. There is nothing in that field that worries me. Worked hard at Addington so is very fit. Easily the most progressive horse in this field. A stable in form always hard to roll. I confidently suggest you anchor him in all bet types. The last time I confidently tipped him out he had a formline of 0090P....won by five + lengths. Same again today. Both horses will likely back up again on Sunday. You can expect repeat performances. Both horses are quaddie legs today. First and last legs so we need to find the winners of the legs in-between. Second leg looks open. Cheezel looks ready to step up and the draw helps. Scotlynn Harry also helped by the draw and stable in form. Mordecai very solid at Nelson and a winning hope. Pauls Verdict has won here before and not out of this. Stablemate of Scotlynn Harry is That Alexander Guy who is poorly drawn but is in this race up to his ears. Paddyproudfoot and Storm Prince look a deadset quinella but Doitson has performed well here before and with John Dunn a shots eye to win the following race he is best included here. Sociable been knocking. I can see Storm Prince with a fornline in upcoming weeks that looks like a picket fence. My quaddie. 1st leg. Madeleine Stowe. 2nd leg. Cheezel...possible anchor if funds running low. Scotlynn Harry. Mordecai, Pauls Verdict and Alexander Guy. (there is scope for an upset here so if you have extra dosh you may want to take an extra quaddie with F in the box. 3rd leg. Paddyproudfoot, Storm Prince.....probably all you need but throw in Doitson and Sociable as cover. 4th leg. Givemewhatineed........look no further. Final three legs of the quaddie are treble legs. Looks a straightforward treble to harvest some $$. Good luck punting amigos.
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Great horse but like Vinny with Popular Alm, they wouldn't get away with the thrashings their champions copped along the way if they did that now.
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Turn It Up or Turn it Out or Turn Me Off?
Joe Kidd replied to Happy Sunrise's topic in Trotting Chat
I make no mention of Greg O'Connor as a presenter. If I did on say Cup Day for example, I would be very positive about him. The team they assemble help make Cup day viewing the pleasure that it is. My comment is the way he steers the box seat. There are many issues that need addressing in the game that are the elephants in the room. The moment anyone even goes near it, Greg trots out his "moving right along". Shows like Fair Go etc had appeal because they are confronting. They put people on the spot including insurance companies etc and are not put off by the barking and snaring bull mastiff. Horse racing needs a similar approach rather than the Pollyanna bullshit we've always had. The box seat is the perfect vehicle to address controversies in the industry but O'Connor is the perfect man to push the TAB's ethos that everything in racing is 100% pure. They are ostriches as they have considerable vested interest but don't expect me to be one hence my disliking of being treated as such. As to who JJ is online. He's a leading All Star cheerleader who will still be spouting off that the absolute blue dominance in elite NZ harness racing is great for the sport when that stable is the only one left and the sport has become a novelty here. Anyone who has the audacity to express a different perspective is just envious and is subjected to his usual passive aggressive fluff throwing. As for the voice we have here. I appreciate it but I'm not naive enough to believe what we express here carries much weight. Nobody gives a flying fark what is said here or on that other stinking cesspit run by that idiot cartoon dog. We are just yarning. -
Turn It Up or Turn it Out or Turn Me Off?
Joe Kidd replied to Happy Sunrise's topic in Trotting Chat
If so, penny should have dropped for me sooner. Talk about vested interest. Mick will never say a word against his good mate as the daily supply of inside word would dry up quicker than you could say Jack Robinson...or JJ Flash. What a shame we don't have investigative horse racing journalists in NZ that are not already in the back pocket of the very people they should be investigating. Obviously all codes in NZ Racing are as pure as the driven snow. We are the role model for World Racing. As Mick would say ever so patronizingly...if anyone wants to compete with his good mate they need to work harder and lift their game.....or did he mean lower their game. As for Greg O'Connor. I feel he destroys The Box Seat with his Pollyanna style. Anytime anything remotely controversial is mentioned. O'Conner immediately reaches for his favourite saying..."Moving right along"....he is the Mr Vanilla of NZ Racing. -
Turn It Up or Turn it Out or Turn Me Off?
Joe Kidd replied to Happy Sunrise's topic in Trotting Chat
Excuse my ignorance on this but is Mr Passive / Aggressive head MP cheerleader the offsider of Mick Guerin? -
Turn It Up or Turn it Out or Turn Me Off?
Joe Kidd replied to Happy Sunrise's topic in Trotting Chat
Callers represent an era in our own harness racing journey. They can be as iconic as the horses we remember from yesteryear. Would love to hear a recording of a Lochie Marshall racecall. I can't remember how good a caller or otherwise he was. The one call of his that has stayed with me was when Lord Module raced at Forbury. Lochie felt Ces Devine was pulling up Lord Module in a race and not trying. He said so in his call. The one and only time I've ever heard a caller say this in a call. People often rate Reg Clapp as a superb caller. I felt he was with his neck and neck, stride for stride but unfortunately Reg stayed on too long. He mistook the number of rounds several times and made routine errors so his legacy was somewhat tainted. The caller I'd most like to hear a recording of is Jack O'Donnell. He covered the top of the South Island and West Coast during the 70's and 80's. "Always started his calls with "this time"..or "racing this time". Haven't heard his voice for decades and nothing on Youtube. I know Jack part owned Cup class pacer Happy Asset who won 14 races. Unsure if he was also involved with the awesome Take A Moment. -
1) Keith Haub....was shafted and NZ racing was poorer as a result. Considerable distance to ... 2) Peter Kelly. 3) Mark Mac. 4) Reon Murtha 5) Sentimental favourite...Jack O'Donnell 6) Syd Tonks. Screamers such as Tony Lee are automatically disqualified. Callers who routinely describe horses as flying home, storming home, rocketing home when they are only plodding home also automatically disqualified. Sorry Davy Mac. Callers who are only ok but have dominated NZ racing forever automatically disqualified. Sorry George Simon. Callers who were superb but carried on for too long and were routinely farking up toward the end also automatically disqualified. Sorry Reg Clapp. .....Reon Murtha nearly made that category. Worst callers. Mike O'Sullivan. Aaron White. ...total crap at the trots with his obsequious pet name calling but very good at the gallops.
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What a champion you are. Say diddly when I nail a finish in one yet throw your cheap shot when I get it wrong. Nice. Happy to admit I do get it wrong along the way hence me giving up on being a professional punter. The logic I applied with Burlington was sound. Most impressive winner on day one for me. Horses that have been trying to win for a while but for whatever reason including bad luck have been beaten, invariably win a few in a row once they find their winning form. Brent White had a superb time at Nelson and was 1st and 3rd in the following race with Tokoyo Jo and Ardee Trouble highlighting a stable in excellent form. As I've stated numerous times, a stable in form is invariably very hard to beat. I mentioned four horses in the Nelson Cup. 1st, 2nd,3rd and last. I said you only needed three horses in the last and two ran the quinella. $176 treble was not that hard to find with the in form Brent White horse starting fav and winning the middle leg. Burlington's run was a shocker. Unsure what went wrong but as punters we turn the page. One horse can make you look like a genius...or a mug. Happy to own the mug hat on that one. As for Kings Landing. Something clearly not right with the horse. Established he's not a fan of any rain on the track when only managing third behind Speeding Spur in the G1 but him breaking after having an easy run as a raging hot fav behind Valloria next up highlighted the horse had an issue. Mark Purdon the right man to resolve such issues but his lack of racing since provided no evidence either way. https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=264162&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE No, I didn't back him in the Jewels. I didn't back anything in the Jewels as I was indisposed. If I had have been in NZ and was punting, I wouldn't have backed Kings Landing for three big reasons. The first being the rain on the track. Second being the big question mark over him from his previous start and thirdly the fact Sundees Son was terrific at Auckland and looked one of the best hopes all day of there being a non All Star winner. Kings Landing is a magnificent trotter. I'm certain of this and hopeful he will come back better than ever. I look forward to that happening. Not to prove my point but because I love seeing top trotters going up against each other. Imagine a Dominion Handicap with Sundees Son, Kings Landing, Winterfell, your boy etc and possibly ex pat Tornado Valley. That's worth traveling a long distance to watch. Enhance Your Calm could be anything and Tickle Me Pink looks like she will win plenty. Trotting ranks looking exciting for the next few seasons.
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ahhhh. correction. Don't get on. Burlington.......last...Yes.
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No problem. I'm happy to take $4 but with Storm Prince, Change Is Good and Spot On all attracting solid money and performing well on the first day, Burlington may get out to 4.50 even 5. Then again, may come in to 3.20 to 3.50. It's the first leg of a treble . In the second leg I was taken with Mandeine Stowe on the first day. (named after a beautiful lady who was in a favourite movie of mine The Last of the Mohicans. In the third leg you only need three. Cullens Bet for Brendon Hill. His team looked good on day 1. Adieu Flirt found the drop back in class after the Jewels appealing on the first day as expected could double up and the only other winning chance is Jay Tee Tyron who was very strong on Friday. Run your trebles around these runners and you'll be smiling come 4.30pm.
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Nelson is my old home town. Always love the racing there. First day form at Nelson always huge for the second day. Yes. Stable in form first day. Yes. Horses that have been longing for a win almost always win two or three in a row once they finally win. Yes. Horses that have had a run of bad luck almost always go on and win a few in a row when the luck comes right for them. Yes. Most progressive and Impressive winner of the first day. Yes. Race in question today. The sought after Nelson Cup. Yes. Horses name. BURLINGTON. Yes. Winner. Yes. Thank me later.
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The concept of The Jewels is sound but the end result has often been a bit flat with the same old same old. Not helped of course by the same stable dominating every year. Yahoooo...not. People will soon get pissed off with Christmas if all they get each year is to watch the same group of people opening their presents while they get what Paddy shot at....again. I'd like to see it change to a NZ wide event. One year in Nelson. Next year at Auckland, the following year at Invercargill etc. Some venues will obviously need an upgrade but just turning the same audience onto harness racing is doing sweet F.A to increase the appeal of chariot racing. I'm bored with the Jewels but wasn't when it started. I also think the timing is wrong. Difficult enough as it is trying to entice people to the races without deliberately timing the event to be brass monkey time.
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The Secret of the All-Stars Stable Finally Revealed
Joe Kidd replied to Happy Sunrise's topic in Trotting Chat
haha..inter changeable of course with JJ. Takes all sorts I guess. -
Unsure if the trendy naming is just marketing or to distinguish the venue from similar racecourses etc across the ditch. There is a Canterbury in NSW so our Canterbury becomes Riccarton Park. There is a Wellington in NSW near Mount Arthur where they run the time honoured Wellington Boot so our Wellington becomes Trentham Gardens. There is a Hamilton in Victoria but the Kiwi version race at Te Rapa so no need to change. I'm only guessing but assumed this was behind the name changes. If there is no identical name in Australia there will be no change here.
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The Secret of the All-Stars Stable Finally Revealed
Joe Kidd replied to Happy Sunrise's topic in Trotting Chat
The secret is where they ram it. I'm fairly confident that if they were going to ram it up your identical spot, you'd run fast also. -
I invited opinions on what unfolded and yours does have some merit but overall I believe you're incorrect in two important aspects. One being that John Dunn contributed to his own downfall and that Ohoka Matty was being authentic in terms of being driven in the best manner to obtain the best outcome for himself . I've watched a million races over the years where stablemates are in the field. It's not rare for one of the runners to need to be covered up to show it's best while the stablemate can work and still be in the finish. One may need a genuine pace while the other prefers a more sedate affair. Seeing stablemates and or family members assisting each other in races has become a pet hate of mine. It's rife. One minor bit of assistance during the race can make the difference between a stablemate winning and being beaten. I agree that the driver of Ohoka Matty made the race more exciting but since when has that been a priority? Obtaining the best possible placing in the priority isn't it? When I arrive at a conclusion with these types of events I look at a horses previous record and where and how it finished after it's deeds. You say you marked Ohoka Matty as fourth selection. Fair enough but I feel the punters got it right when they made it 11th in the betting out of 14. Horse is not known for it's stamina. It had a terrible draw. Question marks on it's form and the driver will not have most punters reaching for their wallet. More likely they would be reaching for Rosary Beads I've seen Blair Orange drive Ohoka Matty quietly during races several times and the horse still get run over. Caller Mark McNamara stated more than once previously during races, "was this the day Ohoka Matty got it's win?". Working and winning has not been the horses forte. I would have expected that had O.M won yesterday it would have needed to get a drag into the race with cover and then things fall into place in the run home with gaps opening up at the right time. Seeing the horse rush around the field from the back with no cover was a genuine shock to me. It immediately got my radar up. Driver was not looking for cover even when it got outside the leader. One could be forgiven for thinking he was driving a horse like Lazarus with those tactics. Should also be remembered the horse in front was being driven by John Dunn a noted front running driver who does not generally hand up. You'd agree that most drivers are fully aware what their charge has done during the race and how much fuel they have remaining? Go look at Ohoka Matty at the 500 after working so hard leading up to that point. He knows the sharp end of the race is coming up with the Mot straight yet he presses on for another dig for the front. Surely he could see that the leader was not spent and know he needed to box smart yet shortly after his charge starts to tire and is gone with 300 metres still to run. Did he misjudge the distance of the home straight and how much fuel O.M had left? The horse was tired and finished a well beaten 12 lengths behind his stablemate. You feel that performance was authentic. I don't share that view. The fact it's stablemate benefited from what unfolded by getting up late to narrowly beat the horse O.M had attacked may just be a coincidence...... but maybe not. One thing for sure. it was unmistakably the difference between Pay Me Visa winning and running a placing. As for John Dunn's tactics. His charge had the perfect draw to lead so no surprise whatsoever to see that unfold. John Dunn obviously spends time studying his opposition as most of the better drivers do. He has the lead and control of the race. If he is going to hand up and potentially lose control of a race he has at his mercy, it must only be to the right horse. You feel that right horse was O.M. I disagree. Dunn would almost certainly know O.M would likely faint and he find himself in a hopeless position getting dragged out of contention. You see that as being a viable option. I didn't and neither did John Dunn. I feel John did everything to win the race and was stiff to get rolled especially due to the actions of a well beaten Ohoka Matty. That's how I say the race anyway. It would be a tad boring if we all agreed with each other Let me take you all the way back to 1988. Dillon Dean was the pride and joy of Don Dwyer. They win the NZ Derby at Addington beating the Purdon trained Godfrey. Along comes the Great Northern Derby. How can the result be reversed? Duel Fuel, another Purdon runner went out and attacked Dillon Dean in front and harassed him for most of the race. MM couldn't hand up as there was no passing lane and no doubt Duel Fuel would have handed up himself shortly after getting to the top. They turn for home and Duel Fuel is exhausted and ran a distant last. By far the worst run of it's career. Godfrey on the other hand who had been quietly smoking the pipe got up very late for Tony H to narrowly beat Dillon Dean. Coincidence? I think not. Cheers.
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If we all joined forces today we will have made a bob. I first started punting Givemewhatineed offshore @ 11's so lots of smiles. Hope some of our BOAY punters got onboard, especially with the exotic bets. Trifecta, First 4, treble and quaddie all paid handsomely. Tick over 40k says it was a very happy day Without wishing to be wise after the event, Givemewhatineed was never going to lose today. I started smiling when he began safely and that smile turned to a giggle when he got an uncontested lead and still with a full tank. Was also smiling listening to MM talk it down just prior to the start. He was right to express reservations especially when you look at his record which is exactly why I advised not to be put off by the formline. We are off to the UK in the morning so I will be hanging up my NZ punting boots for a while. Good luck to all and go well. Cheers. Duncan.
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100% All we can do is rely on what has been our own experience with what we witness. Win movers are so reliable to my eye that they have become a critically important betting tool. To be honest, I wish that wasn't the reality. I can watch hundreds of race replays, compare all the form and ability of horse, trainer, driver / rider and find the winner only to have that all go out the window by very late betting movements. It can be very frustrating especially if it's too late for whatever reason to unload on a saver. Where ever I've punted around the world the one fact that always remains a constant is that money speaks all languages. There is no single set in stone way of interpreting that money in relation to wagering. Some connections prefer to get their investments on early. They may drop the price from $20 to say $6. Punters notice this and invariably follow like sheep. As the race gets nearer to start time the pools increase and early wagers can become diluted. Punter see that $6 drift to say $10 and from appearances sake, it appears the horse got the blows but that is not the case at all. You can have a small pool on a chook raffle type race a relatively small bet can send that pool into meltdown. That bet could mean nothing so is best ignored. The best win movers in my experience are in fields with decent pools and when the moving happens in the last 10 minutes before race start. If the betting is relatively steady and then one starts to come in sharply, that is invariably a great indicator. If on the other hand no money comes for another leading contender, that is also usually an excellent guide. Those two situations often work together. Connections of the horse being punted have expressed their confidence while the connections of the horse getting the blows have likely expressed their reservations etc. It's uncanny just how reliable these numbers are. People bet late for any number of reasons. They may just like having as much time as possible to see the whole picture. Prelims, stable and driver form and that of rivals etc etc. Some of the big punters I've crossed paths with bet late very deliberately simply to avoid attracting the sheep. Reading win movers can be almost an art form. Without blowing my own trumpet I feel I''m ok at it. Most important factors will always be ability and form of the horse but I will not touch a horse EVER if the stable / driver / rider are not in form. Predicting patters is helpful. Say a stable have three runners engaged on the day. The one you're really interested in starts late in the day. If the earlier runners are expected to perform but don't, I will pass completely on my intended wager later in the day. If the earlier runners are rough but go well then get onboard bigger and better later. If they run a quinella early on my confidence rises considerably for my intended wager later in the day. I was a professional punter for just over three years on both sides of the ditch but especially in Australia. There are syndicates operating that I watched in action. Their activities can be eye opening to say the least. In my experience, Speaking in general terms, Australian punters are onto it more than Kiwi punters. Punting can be as easy as falling off a log. It can also do your head in. I gave up a modestly successful business to take my punting full time but eventually returned to a more conventional and reliable method of earning. Needs must and I saw more than enough to satisfy myself the game can be as bent as a dogs hind leg. Good luck with whatever method you choose to use. Must be fun. Coincidentally, the more often you win, the more fun you have
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I put this out there for folk to decide for themselves. I will declare I had no wager on the event myself. Race 3 @ the Mot. Andrew Stuart had two runners. Pay Me Visa who looked a reasonable chance and stablemate Ohoka Matty who was drawn the outside of the second row. A very poor draw indeed for a horse who has missed winning several races over the last season when stamina was needed in the home straight after enjoying an easy time of it. When he finally did win it was at Reefton when drawn 4. Few expected Ohoka Matty to be in the finish today from that draw especially. Change Is Good for John Dunn looked a very strong chance from the draw and that was reflected in the betting. Horse trained by Mitch Kerr in the Mitch Kerr Pace. Pay Me Visa also attracted a lot of support late where as stablemate Ohoka Matty attracted no late support at all. It was friendless.. One thing we can say for certain is that Andrew Stuart would have been aware of exactly who his biggest danger was. The horse most of the money came for. Change Is Good. So off they go and Change Is Good has an uncontested lead. Most would recognize that John Dunn would not surrender the controlling spot from the front without a fight so if you're going to have a crack you need a runner with stamina. Who is that runner going to be? Surprise surprise. It was Ohoka Matty of all horses. Went at the 1400 from a long way off the leader with a full head of steam and really put it to Change Is Good. I found these tactics with this horse VERY surprising. It was of course a race to the finish, NOT a race to the home turn. Ohoka Matty attacked Change Is Good again at the 500 and was then out of fuel at the 300. The winning post at the Mot has not been moved so a miscalculation of distance by the driver who knows the horse well? Finished down the track 12 lengths from the winner and will sleep very well tonight. He was the first horse to turn around and head back after the finish. The finish. Pay Me Visa manages to get up and beat Change Is Good late by half a head after enjoying an easy run for Blair Orange. Very good drive by Blair as we've come to expect. It's my opinion that if you ran that race again 100 times without the actions of Ohoka Matty, the stablemate Pay Me Visa would not have beaten Change Is Good in any of the 100 reruns. Probably just a coincidence but there have been questions asked of certain trainers and drivers in the last few months and some of those questions involve participants in this race and are at this time, unresolved. My question. Was Ohoka Matty driven in a manner best suited to that horse obtaining the best possible placing.........or did he get the job done in other ways? https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=263987
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Best bet over Easter runs tomorrow. We've been punting it via several betting platforms all day so we've got our price. As a result I am happy to now share. Barring accidents it will win the 8th at the Mot so anchor it through all exotic bets. It's name is Givemewhatineed. Don't be put off by the formline. Is nailed down and wins. Enjoy. Stablemate won at Addington yesterday and that was very enjoyable. This will round off the Easter weekend beautifully. Well done Margo and Peter.
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100% Flag. I'm sure the turn keys would happily turn their backs while some of the fine gentleman residing there "reeducated" the man who is on par with what is left behind on the track by the greyhounds.
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For sure. I've been told by numerous honest and very reliable folk that hundreds of cats, kittens, rabbits, baby rabbits etc have met a gruesome and diabolical end under his watch. What a far king awesome human being.
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Just hearing that human excrement's name makes me feel unwell. It's an appalling reflection on all concerned in the greyhound industry that he and his vile ilk are able to continue. I would happily set up a givealittle page to send that wonderful human being to Africa so he could be live bait for the Hippo. Allow Cole to be chased by the Hippo for 20 minutes and if he survives the experience, he can continue his involvement with greyhounds. Sounds like a fair deal.
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The good folk with only one book have always been determined to steer the ship away from things we enjoy.