All The Aces

Good luck Weasel. Not sure if that draw is the best though as they usually head to the outside fence on a heavy track at Wanganui.

It was all explained to you in my very first post on page 1 of this thread Barry: "Of course there was a huge bias at Te Rapa on Saturday. The rail had been moved into the true position leaving a beautiful strip of three metres that had not been used at their last three meetings which were all in May. It was obvious before the meeting even started where the best place to be on the track would be." I wasn't rocket science to figure out where the bias would be from the start of the day. Punting 101 Barry.

It's like banging your head on the dunny door! If you don't believe Thomass or myself then take this in from a large betting website from Australia: Hopefully you will learn something instead of burying your head in the sand at Te Rapa. Track bias has become a hot topic in racing over recent years and an understanding of the concept is essential for every punter. Once upon a time there was actually debate in racing circles about whether bias actually existed or whether it was a myth… simply punters reading too much into results on the day that could be explained by race tempo or other factors. Nowadays track bias is accepted as a real factor in racing and debate is more about whether it existed at a given meeting and to what extent. What is track bias? When we use the term “track bias” we are referring to anything that creates an advantage or disadvantage to horses racing in a certain position and / or certain part of the track on a given day. For example, at Flemington on Newmarket / Australian Cup Day (2017), horses racing on the rail or one off were advantaged compared to those that tried to run on 3 or more horses off the fence in the straight. Since re-opening the Eagle Farm track in June 2016, we have regularly seen horses racing well off the fence in the straight do much better than those that were closer to the inside. The presence of track bias not only has an impact on how you might perceive winning chances and betting opportunities on that day, but also how you interpret individual horse performances out of the meeting. What causes track bias? There are a number of factors than can cause or at least influence track bias: Wear & Tear Wear from previous races or track gallops is a key factor. If the rail is moved or left in a position which exposes the ground from a recent race meeting, then that worn ground can become either a clear advantage or disadvantage. If the turf has recovered well without damage from the last meeting, then it will generally be more compacted and firmer (faster) for horses to gallop on compared to the fresh ground. If the ground still shows signs of being marked / damaged from the recent meeting, then it won’t hold together as well once horses start running over it again. The fresher ground away from the wear and tear will be faster to gallop on. Taa DaaaH!!! "Exactly as happened at Te Rapa on Saturday" There can also be wear from track gallops or trials / jump outs at certain venues where they use the course proper. That’s typically well away from the inside fence, but again, it can make those sections of the track firmer to softer to gallop on at a future meeting. It would be nice if all race meetings were held on fresh ground, but that’s not always possible so previous wear and tear certainly plays a role. How much difference can bias make in a race? The effect of bias on a race will largely depend on how significant the factors creating the bias are. Rest assured though that the presence of notable track bias will have a clear impact on the results of each race. Betting on the day Bias is still one of the factors which the market does not fully compensate for in its pricing, even as it develops on the day. That means you have the opportunity to improve your betting results by adjusting your decision making in those cases where you’re confident that a bias either will exist (if predicting before the meeting) or actually does exist after a couple of races. Depending on the bias, I can offer you the following advice for betting: 1. If you expect or notice that runners closer to the inside and / or closer to the lead are likely to be advantaged: Don’t back any horse you think will settle further back than 1st to 4th in the run, no matter how much you like them. History shows that when those closer to the fence / lead are advantaged, horses further back in the field lose a significant amount on turnover (>40% POT). Is the market really making a 50%+ mistake in the price of the horse you like? It takes discipline as you will miss the odd winner, but over time those bets will cost you a small fortune and you will be far better off avoiding them. If you like an on-pace runner, then bet with confidence. Don’t be put off by a wide barrier, uncertainty about the distance, weight or any other secondary factor. The percentages are in your favour. Scenarios where you like a horse that will settle handy to the lead and the main danger is likely to settle back are especially appealing. 2. If you expect or notice that the inside will be a disadvantage and horses off the fence will be best suited: Consider passing on the entire meeting, depending on how significant the bias is. Horses that get wider can still be disadvantaged if not wide enough or in the fastest lanes (i.e. those that might have been compacted more by track equipment driving over them.) Furthermore, the pattern can change as the meeting progresses with winners coming progressively wider in the straight. This scenario makes confident betting very difficult. If you decide to bet, then barriers should be viewed in the opposite way to the common perception. i.e. inside barriers are a disadvantage and wider barriers are an advantage, regardless of likely in-run position. Statistically speaking, barriers 1 to 4 when the inside section of a track is clearly a disadvantage have a 4 x worse POT% compared to barriers 10+ Horses that are drawn inside and are likely to settle midfield or worse in the run are the very worst type of betting prospects. On the other hand, they can be good lay betting prospects. The best type of betting prospects in this scenario are mid to wide drawn horses that will settle midfield or just off and look to peel wide and run on in the straight. Conclusion Track bias is an important factor in racing and while it may be easier to ignore, a little bit of understanding and thought can make a big difference to your betting results over the course of a year. You don’t need to become obsessed about it or look to attribute every unexpected result to bias in the track. However, you should maintain a general awareness when watching races and pay attention to respected experts that might comment on it either before or during a meeting. When it seems relevant, use that information with the above guidelines to help make your betting decisions. There are no fixed rules, it’s about weighing up all of the information and making decisions that feel right to you, regardless of the race outcome. If you do that consistently, your results will definitely improve and every extra percentage point you gain is great for both your confidence as a punter and of course, bank balance.

18 hours have passed and not one person thinks you are correct Barry. Hmmm.....

???

Er Thomass...It is Te Teko today. Ruakaka is on Saturday.

You are the one who mentioned No Loitering however those sheeple as you call them could consider themselves unlucky (no I didn't back him but he is a black booker on the run). Go and look at his run. Drew the outside gate of 14. Jumped and went forward but Noble Star drawn just inside him also went forward and kept him out. At no stage did No Loitering get to the lead. Instead he ended up four wide the entire trip and ended up fourth only three quarters of a length from the winner. Considering the tough run four wide without cover and all the extra ground covered one could consider him a certainty beaten. You keep doing what you are doing Barry and take no notice of any advice given, after all the two systems that you tried to show everyone so far this year have proven to be dismal failures...…....now perhaps if you had considered track bias......?

It's relatively simple. You really do surprise me that you never factor this into your betting. In general terms find something that can run on or near the lead that has drawn well or one that can begin quickly and get over up front. The others further back then need luck to get through on a narrow fast strip and those that can't have to then come out wider in the slower part of the track to make their runs. You will find that the effort tells and after looming don't finish off whilst the ones inside on the faster lane keep going.

Of course it is a valuable tool Barry. Get a shopping trolley. Is it easier to run it on rough cut up ground or smooth even ground?

O,k it is taken that Barry does not subscribe to the fact that by re-positioning the running rail to the true position that it can create a bias by providing a fast lane of better ground, particularly when the inside hasn't been used in recent meetings. How many others think he is correct?

She was ridden exactly as she had been at her previous two starts ie in the trail and instead of coming outside the leader as she did in both those runs she got a lovely run through along the fence at the 500m and it was all over red rover from there. From gate two she was always going to be sitting up handy and was always going to be on the better part of the track also. When you get clubs protecting the inside part of a track by putting the rail out for a number of meetings and then bringing the rail back to the true position exposing a better surface it can create a fast strip ie a less worn and cut up section of the track. Most serious punters are aware of this and would never fail to check where the rail has been positioned at prior meetings.

I ended up well in front Barry because the evident bias so much favoured Italian Lover that I had a decent bet on her to win and got a nice slice of the trifecta. That made for a winning day and it was boosted by backing Richard Of Yorke in the last at Trentham. Thanks for asking. ?

Barry, if you don't believe that the shifting of a running rail can create a bias then you probably shouldn't be punting. ?

Of course there was a bias which was made by positioning the rail in the true position, just go and look at the videos. Only two winners came from outside of that three metre strip all day, R5 Gabriel who was only just off it and R8 Sarabande out in centre track who was the widest winner all day. R1 Birdsong - fence R2 - Scarfi - one off R3 Super Hoof - fence R4 Sultan Of Swing - 3 off. R6 Italian Lover - Fence R7 Star Treasure - fence R9 Money Trail - Closest to the fence of the runners on the 3 metre strip. Virtually any horse outside that strip couldn't win on Saturday.

Of course there was a huge bias at Te Rapa on Saturday. The rail had been moved into the true position leaving a beautiful strip of three metres that had not been used at their last three meetings which were all in May. It was obvious before the meeting even started where the best place to be on the track would be.

I have no desire to see and hear what they have done etc leading up to race day, all I want to know is how the track will play. ie best section of the track.

And punters walking away also Freda, so the others will have to look for new jobs as well. The whips they use today are not like the old days. Hit yourself with one and see if it hurts. As you know many horses are bludgers and if you take the whip away they simply won't try. The whip these days is more about the noise.

Of course he was- nose band was applied and the tongue tie was removed. If you were so confident Bazza where was it on the other site where you put your tips? You know, the one with bugger all traffic set up by the two agitators from here . If you were that keen you would have got back some of the losses you currently have over there. ☺️ Two systems you have used. $20 win bets and that one went awol after losses were standing close to $1000.00 and the current one when you started with a thousand and are working backwards to somewhere around $500.00 now. Anyway back to the original topic. How is the track going to play at Ellerslie tomorrow?

Deli Belly. Shit..I never want the trots.

I think that you will find that is was Craig Grylls. Andrew Calder was riding at Wanganui Thomass. ?

It is a farce doing it two days out. When the rail is out 11 metres at Te Rapa and there is rain, the track where the rail is positioned is no place to be. The outside is, in the better footing and there is less kick back of sand also. That track with the rain they had was never going to a be Dead 5 and you could tell watching the first it was a slow track. For Wanganui's meeting on Saturday and I don't live anywhere near Wanganui they will be coming wide and all trying to get to the outside fence as per usual when they get a heavy track there. As Thomass says give us all the readings so we can work it out where the best place to be is. The track manager's video report for Te Rapa was a waste of time. Let's see what the one from Wanganui will have to say when that goes up. .

Isn't this just a farewell tour to be fair Thomass (Posted in wrong thread yesterday). Surely he's going, going...gone.

What do you get out of it SLB2.0 for people signing up through you?

Isn't this just a farewell tour to be fair Thomass….

Bonneval is a prime example that it isn't Freda