curious

I agree. If re-opening is contingent on a substantial proportion of the population being in an effective vaccination status by the end of the year say, re-opening can't happen based on the current vaccine strategy and the evidence at hand. Even the short-lived re-opening strategy with Australia has failed miserably and any re-opening is as much dependent on the rest of the world as it is on NZ. We may be in our own national bubble for some time to come.

Why? Given that even freshly vaccinated, the benefit evidence against Delta is doubtful, if the current outbreak is quashed in NZ and there is no other and therefore no risk for say 6 months, it will certainly be largely ineffective by then, especially against any new variant. Already those who were vaccinated early, in Feb and March probably would have little protection against a new variant.

Isolated case but this sort of stuff keeps me wavering on getting the jab.

I haven't seen any media reports only the MoH release. However wouldn't a drop in testing rates likely be due to a fall in new close contact numbers and people experiencing symptoms, so be expected?

53 cases. All in AKL. No unexpected watewater results. We can do this.

Where did you see that. Not in my version that I can see.

Yes. However the authors covered that issue by noting that because of the very low sero-positive incidence finding, the 'n' turned out to be too low to analyse and compare sub-samples

Other than the noted limitations, what flaws do you see?

They have. That's what the above is. Funded by the MBIE.

Happy to see them, including by Zoom. Might help pay some training bills.

Yes it's a very clever systematic analysis especially since he had to patch data together from media reports and whatever from most places. A bit irrelevant to NZ though. Seroprevalence research here suggested a figure of about .1% cf. > 10% in the likes of the US and Europe where the pandemic has been poorly controlled. Don't think Ioannidis included any NZ data. "The very low seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand implies that undetected community transmission has been limited. This seroprevalence is broadly similar to a recent study conducted in the low prevalence city of Sydney in Australia [3], and markedly lower than estimates of >10% from serosurveys in Europe and North America where the pandemic has been poorly controlled (https://serotracker.com). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8365046/

Just to be clear Brodie, I don't think I ever said that or even thought it.

Interesting as she points out, hospitilisation rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated were no different. Not what Cindy told me at 1pm.

Now 34 I see. 40% < 40 which seems surprising for a disease that only seriously affects the elderly and those with underlying conditions.

No point. Just checking if I was understanding that correctly from a quick read. Seems consistent with other studies despite the complexities of trying to assess across countries.

Yes. I was working off the IFR .2% figure. If you use the .15% CFR would be about 2.5%?

Just had a quick read of this Chief. Isit saying that the mortality rate is about 3.5% of lab confirmed cases?

Now 25. 2 in ICU I see

I believe those are the peer reviewed citations acceptable to Nature. Total citations according to google scholar are 290

Try reading the data Brodie, not listening to ill-informed media reports and hear say.

Well that article has been cited 97 times since being published last November. That is the key measure of journal impact.

And btw Nature has the highest impact factor of any journal publishing basic scientific research and is regarded by most as a very prestigious academic journal despite your opinion.

Please post those citations then. I can't find them, at least in peer reviewed journals.

Do you mean risk averse? I'd hope health advisors would be. They are ethically if not legally bound to be.

That is complete bs disinformation. It happened last year too. Read what the coroner had to say about it when he released the suicide data following last year's lockdown which showed a significant DECLINE in suicide rates through June 2020. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/chief-coroner-takes-aim-at-unhelpful-commentary-as-latest-suicide-results-released/SKFQCHU5OAK6UT6ATHF4VDZBPY/# I am a MH professional and have educated 100s of mental health professionals. Neither I nor any colleagues I have spoken to have seen any increase in suicides during this lock down either.