curious
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Everything posted by curious
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They'll be the same statistics that show that horses with blinkers on first time generate a greater ROI than those without, or similarly those dropping back from black type races. That is, there are none. It's another hunch being fraudulently promoted by the resident fraudster.
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Just read this bit of what mardigras wrote Thommo since you don't seem to understand the rest.
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Btw, overall time is a significant factor in assessing performance for me, the most significant, but it's not the only one.
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Yep. I invest next to nothing on NZ racing except for the odd day out. No issues with the variables between the straight 6 and HQ. What I can't figure out is the ability of horses to handle tracks that are a Fast 2 down the back, like my cow paddock and a dead 4 round the turn and a decent Good 3 in the straight on the outside fence and a Slow 7 on the rail. I know some can do it but at this stage it's beyond me. I'd rather race and bet where there are consistent surfaces.
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Each to their own and whatever works for you MM. I don't have much time for sectional times though I know successful punters who do. All the races I've seen were won by the horse that went the fastest from the starting gate to the finish line. As to the other factors you mention, I consider them wind noise. A multitude of variables can affect race times of course but I would argue they can all be accounted for by the difference between expected time and actual time, although variables such as tempo mean that a single race is not necessarily a good arbiter of that.
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Obviously you had a day off yesterday while the primary teachers were on strike. Why don't you just download a free random number generator app and run it twice for each race. First time limit it by field size to come up with your selection. Second time make it 0 or 1 to determine whether you should add 20% or not. You'd probably be better off and also save a lot of time.
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What's got me flummoxed is that he says that all punters know about "universal times for each class" but how could he calculate those (for ANZ racing) when he doesn't know how to generate a variant that allows comparison of a straight six at Trentham with the same distance at Ellerslie, and goes further by saying you can't do that. Maybe, by "universal times for each class", he's referring to the average amount of time it takes him to complete his remedial maths and reading classes?
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I don't know of a bot that could be that dumb and illogical, though I guess some programming genius may be able to create one.
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Yep. Rely on hearsay Thommo. The good thing is that I'm no longer worried that newbies to the game might take your bizarre theories on board, lose their money and depart the game. If they haven't yet figured out your fraudulent claims then they probably deserve to lose it. Someone has to or the rest of us couldn't win.
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Fair enough MM but for me, I think the action of the SPCA is shameful and I am shocked by their actions in this story. I'm going to a birthday party on Saturday where in lieu of presents, I'm invited to drop a coin or some notes in a bucket for the SPCA. I was intending to contribute a hundred bucks which is maybe about what I would have spent on a present. After reading this I will probably contribute somewhere between nothing and a token gold coin if it is going to be used to kill horses rather than save them.
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Shocking indeed but I'm not sure who is worse. They are resilient creatures. Worm it, do its teeth, give it a feed, find it a loving home. No, they shoot the poor bloody thing. Shame on them.
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Is Winnie in Thommo's remedial reading class maybe? I'm not convinced that either will graduate.
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Hiring consultants to conduct studies can be an excellent means of turning problems into gold, your problems into their gold.
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Could Kementari be the one to knock Winx off?
curious replied to Chief Stipe's topic in Galloping Chat
It was a soft win though. -
Good thing you didn't ask Thommo that MF. He'd want you to wait until the result was provided, then put up the odds.
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Well that's because I didn't understand what you meant by a speed rating. It now appears that you meant average time for each rating group for a given distance.
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I don't think anyone's saying that isn't true or that it's different here, though I haven't looked. What I am saying is that you can not use average times for a population to assess individual performance. That's just dumb.
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Don't know. You'd have to compare the winning percentage of those first time in blinkers with the same horses the start before; or somehow show that the blinkers performance was better than the horses's previous best without blinkers.
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I don't think he was thinking
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Here ya go....
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I actually think we agree on that though I don't really care about the company, just the good individual performance. That though, is simply not true. It's the same generalisation and the same error.
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Thommo, it's your usual error. You are applying a generalisation about a population (black type performers) to an individual performance. You can't do that. Well you can but it won't generally be helpful. It makes an assumption that could easily be ruled out. Why can't you compare a Trentham straight six to Ellerslie, or any performances on different tracks for that matter? Of course you can. How else could you assess performance if you can't then compare the individual assessments? Have you completed your remedial maths course yet and got your sis to explain the ecological fallacy??
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Oops, sorry mardigras. Snap! Thommo will probably now be convinced we are the same person ...lol.
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Don't get me started on the handicapping system CS. I agree with you though, having the likes of rote rating penalties for maiden wins is a joke. It's not even really a handicapping system.
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Oh really. So are you related to Thommo? He also puts up the winners after the race. Though to be fair he doesn't have a go beforehand like you did.
