mardigras

I've priced Jorda at $7.20, so that would be my go. Good luck.

And to think I put my prices up last night when NZTR said it was an 8. I'm happy using 8 until I decide otherwise.

I haven't miscalculated anything to do with the track rating. I've used the rating as per NZTR. When that changes, then I may change my prices. My post had the rating that applied at the time.

No problem with the response. I wouldn't call the climate of Moe or MV the same as NZ however. I'm not sure we get many days in the 40s in NZ and the ground temperature in Victoria is going to be higher than it is in NZ. And Launceston race nearly all meetings from October through to April.

Remember, not all Strathayr have been successful. I'm pretty sure Kensington was Strathayr and that was considered a disaster. Here's a couple of snippets. One question I'd be asking is whether there would be any issues in a colder climate in combination with the level of rain. From Daily Telegraph. (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/superracing/peter-robl-gives-a-close-up-take-from-the-saddle-of-randwicks-new-kensington-surface/news-story/1bdb27855ca9423bf43ea207c076051f) Kensington will give Sydney five major racetracks – along with Randwick, Rosehill, Canterbury and Warwick Farm – and its superior drainage will drastically limit the number of race meetings that will potentially be lost due to inclement weather. It is also expected to host twilight meetings during the summer months, which can be watched from Royal Randwick’s new $170 million grandstand. ATC general manager of racing Matt Rudolph said the Kensington track provided an all-weather turf racing solution. “Having all five ATC tracks back in full operation will allow us to space the scheduling of meetings to enable the best racing surfaces, not just for carnivals but also year round," Rudolph said. The ATC hopes to boost attendances by opening the gates and offering free entry to all naval and defence personnel from around the world who are docked in Sydney for Naval Week celebrations. The Kensington 2100m track with its Strathayr surface consists of 40,000 square metres of washed Village Green Kikuyu turf. Also from Daily Telegraph (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/superracing/nsw-racing/chris-waller-applauds-atcs-decision-to-rebuild-randwicks-kensington-track/news-story/125d98296d31992573dc6b992f26ebba) The Kensington track has been a costly failure since it was opened during the spring of 2013 as it soon became apparent the surface could not sustain the pressure of consistent race meetings. Randwick’s inner-course hosted only 21 race meetings but none since November, 2014, when it was agreed the race surface was not up to standard. In consultation with Racing NSW, the ATC plans to build a modern and superior drainage system as a major part of the design of the new Kensington track surface with the aim to be back racing there in the summer of 2017-18.

Hey VC!, Portfolio, Newmarket, others - give this a crack. More the better!

It definitely is. Whatever happens, we won't see anything from Thomass until after the race.

No probs barryb. Will do.

With current TAB odds. Based on track rated 8 Bonecrusher Stakes # Runner Predicted Time Price Chance% TAB Thomass Curious FTF barryb Other? 9 Langkawi 1:26.94 $5.90 16.95 $8.00 2 Star Performance 1:26.94 $6.00 16.67 $9.50 12 Surely Sacred 1:26.94 $7.00 14.29 $13.00 7 Hypos 1:27.18 $10.00 10.00 $11.00 5 Spirits Aubeer 1:27.27 $12.00 8.33 $8.00 11 Roll The Dice 1:27.27 $12.50 8.00 $35.00 3 Masetto 1.27.29 $16.50 6.06 $4.20 8 Cantstopthefeeling 1.27.29 $19.00 5.26 $23.00 6 Cavallo Veloce 1:27.29 $24.00 4.17 $21.00 1 Bocce 1:27.29 $26.00 3.85 $13.00 10 Quizmaster 1:27.29 $27.00 3.70 $16.00 4 Total Excess 1:27.30 $40.00 2.50 $4.80 13 Musical Blues 1:27.73 $500.00 0.20 $31.00 99.98

Hesi suggested putting up some info for this race. Early days and will update my views as things change. This race isn't one I'd bet on even if I was an NZ punter. Most horses have had very few starts, which reduces my confidence around their ability. So here are my assessments including prices. As at now. Punters may want to get on Total Excess, or even Masetto - but no. Based on track rated 8 Bonecrusher Stakes # Runner Predicted Time Price Chance% 9 Langkawi 1:26.94 $5.90 16.95 2 Star Performance 1:26.94 $6.00 16.67 12 Surely Sacred 1:26.94 $7.00 14.29 7 Hypos 1:27.18 $10.00 10.00 5 Spirits Aubeer 1:27.27 $12.00 8.33 11 Roll The Dice 1:27.27 $12.50 8.00 3 Masetto 1.27.29 $16.50 6.06 8 Cantstopthefeeling 1.27.29 $19.00 5.26 6 Cavallo Veloce 1:27.29 $24.00 4.17 1 Bocce 1:27.29 $26.00 3.85 10 Quizmaster 1:27.29 $27.00 3.70 4 Total Excess 1:27.30 $40.00 2.50 13 Musical Blues 1:27.73 $500.00 0.20 99.98

As FTF stated, he writes fairytales. He put up 4 selections. One won at 2s. He added 3 other selections as backup/savers. Then claimed all sorts of multis and success because two savers won. And he's gone back into hiding as far as putting up anything pre race, which is little wonder.

Heaps of people have been asking pertinent questions on here. But you're too scared to answer. I'll put up Saturdays down in graders. Front up and say which ones meet the blue print and which ones don't. Before the races. Can't be difficult so that us mere mortals can understand what you claim. What odds on you fronting up?

You do whatever you like. I subjectively operate it and it resembles a turd. No one else can use it since no one resembles your lack of intelligence to come up with the same or similar subjective answers. Yet you've repeatedly claimed it is the secret to punting riches for others to follow, when it's just a blue print on how to get to the poor farm. Why can't you tell me my horses aren't actually down in grade superior performance when I put selections up, before the race so that your blue print is better understood. You've had ample opportunity.

There is zero arrogance in my posts about the blueprint. It has been stated it can be used by punters to improve their punting success and help feed them. The blue print can't be subjective to allow that to happen. Yet when you apply the rules, you end up broke. As I've said, I didn't write it. I simply analyse it. And as is logical, it doesn't stack up. There are no reasons why it would.

Your blueprint is statistical and able to be analysed that way. I didn't write it, you did. And it can't work long term. I've demonstrated that.

Looks like we have an update to the blueprint. Not if horse finished within 1 length of winner last start as no value. Funny how blinkers on only works for runners that we only find out about - after they've won. And horses that finish a longer distance off the winner, but are down in grade from 2 years ago, they aren't just being given a last chance throw at the dice. This time the trainer is serious - because it won and we're told- again after the race.

It's not an assumption. I deal in facts.

Only had a quick glance myself - but I plan to comment. The initial read was that 'aint a pretty result' looks to be an understatement chief!

These horses must have all been on their last chances. Either that or the trainers in Oz don't know what they're doing. Performance of horses in Oz with blinkers on first time, that finished <= 1 length from winner at previous start. From 2012 until start of June. I don't bother obtaining the info anymore, it has no value. Year Runners Winners TAB Div Strike Rate ROI Avg Div 2012 1231 132 $740.10 10.7% 60.1% $5.61 2013 1593 160 $1,083.60 10.0% 68.0% $6.77 2014 1634 180 $1,358.00 11.0% 83.1% $7.54 2015 1578 163 $1,201.64 10.3% 76.1% $7.37 2016 1743 190 $1,379.60 10.9% 79.2% $7.26 2017 573 62 $336.00 10.8% 58.6% $5.42 8352 887 $6,098.94 10.6% 73.0% $6.88 A dartboard would give you the same strike rate and an ROI of around 85%. Couldn't even do that in any of those years.

This stuff from the guy who claims to be so successful at punting yet isn't restricted. How odd.

Try this for anecdotal. I've observed that horses that finished within 1 length of the winner at its last start, over a number of years, that then have blinkers on first time, produce a lower ROI from tote betting than using a dartboard. Compared to the anecdotal evidence on Redzel. She needs blinkers. Hohohohoho. Merry Christmas.

I see the idiot is trying to tell others the meaning of words. Of course the evidence I present is anecdotal. Not proof. There is no proof. But it is of such sufficient quantity and quality it is massively outweighing the contra anecdotal evidence, such that it stands up to scrutiny. Which is something your posts don't. The team here is spot on. You aren't worth the effort responding. You're thick. Get help.

You do. But you're not a punter. You're an idiot. I've already provided massive anecdotal evidence that you are wrong. Next you'll be telling me horses that finish within a length of the winner last start are a last chance throw at the dice. Of course they are.

1. I acknowledged that. 2. I acknowledged that. 3. Not relevant to trying your idea out which you said we could as the ideas on here were more complex than necessary. The info I posted is as useful as your idea is for people to try. Useless. I quite agree. But I think people that might want to consider your idea may like to know what the results are like if you vary the dates, and points 1 and 2 from your method. Which is starting to make your approach no longer simple after all if you have to know what those dates are, and they don't. My mind is open. I'm not controlling anything. I simply responded to your post. It seems you didn't like my response. I would have thought my response could help you. Clearly not.

So, sometimes they cause the horse to run faster. Therefore sometimes they don't. And sometimes they make the horse run slower - or is that not the case? So how does a punter decide beforehand which of the 3 'sometimes' is going to occur? And when the sometimes happens to be 'run faster', how do you know how much faster? Before the race of course.