mardigras

You wait til a good priced winner comes in - and there you have it!!!! It's the same as the Thomas blue print.

This blue print shit is too damn easy.

I forgot to mention, today's blue print letter is C. Back horses in Aus and NZ starting with the letter C. Good luck.

Yes, what a day for the blue print. Thomass has every opportunity to claim these aren't blue print runners for whatever reason - before the races. But it doesn't happen. I put all these up prior to the race - I should end up with egg on my face. So today, 35 runners, 3 winners at $1 win each, got back $31.70. Just over 90%. If you take 85/price for each runner, you would have expected more than 3 winners from the odds backed for those 35 runners. if you had used a dartboard, you would have expected to get the same return from your $35. And the $13 winner - gets in the 'down in grade' specials with a 6.6L 5th in a listed race - in it's 6th race since. Now compare that to your selections. A profit. And even if you take your selections and only back them at higher than my prices, still a profit. This is not unusual. You could go back over time and find exactly the same thing across these threads. Today, just another day of losses for the down in graders - even with two double figure winners.

Maybe the Down In Grade thing is back to front. Suspense wins a Premier meeting $30k R72 after winning a $10k midweek Maiden. Might have to look at that.

My assessment in brackets. Good luck. My prices for Ellerslie based on a track still around the 3/4 up to 5 range.

Will it be a feast or famine? All of these are 'superior performance in superior class back in grade'. Super BT specials Track Race # Runner Gear Changes Ellerslie 1 3 STEVEN JAMES Ellerslie 1 5 MARCELLINA Ellerslie 3 2 STRATOCASTER Ellerslie 3 5 AKOYA Blinkers On Ellerslie 3 6 JOY ANNA Ellerslie 3 8 MERLINI Ellerslie 3 10 HAMMER KING Ellerslie 4 2 MORRIE OCK Blinkers Off Ellerslie 6 4 FIONESAY Ellerslie 6 7 MAKTOUM Ellerslie 6 8 LE CASTILE Ellerslie 6 9 RONDINELLA Ellerslie 6 12 SANDRINE Ellerslie 6 16 MERCY HILL Ellerslie 6 18 IFFINDOUBT Blinkers On Ellerslie 7 2 GIOVANNI CANALETTO Ellerslie 8 6 FANCY MORE Ellerslie 8 7 FISCAL FANTASY Wanganui 4 6 HANK MOODY Wanganui 5 2 LAAFFAIRE Wanganui 5 3 SLIMLINE Wanganui 5 4 PETITE EN JEU Wanganui 8 6 LARIMA 2nd tier specials Ellerslie 1 14 SMEDLEY Ellerslie 4 9 SPINDLE Ellerslie 7 3 RONCHI Ellerslie 7 8 ELUSIVE TREASURE Wanganui 2 2 BROTHER ONE Wanganui 3 10 PIRIWAI Wanganui 4 1 CHIC Wanganui 6 4 CHOICE ATTITUDE Wanganui 7 1 BEEFEATER Wanganui 7 3 HIGHLAD Wanganui 7 6 SAMPSON Nose Band Off, Tongue Tie Off Wanganui 7 9 CHINA STAR

Look forward to that. I'll have all the blue print specials ready later. I don't have the answers myself, except the answer that the blue print is flawed. Every horse I put up met the blue print of 'superior performance in superior class back to lower grade'. All of them.

If you think so. What was crap. that he is dreaming that stakes will double in the next year. Or the part where the racing industry is a small contributor to tax. Or both. The first part, we'll only have a year to wait to see who is right. The second part is known already.

Dreaming. What a load of bollocks about tax to the government. The racing industry (as opposed to the breeding industry) are small employers, small contributors and I think many industries employ people and pay tax without getting handouts back to the level NZ racing does. Just ignorance.

24mm - I understand Flemington got around 35mm when the rains came cup day. And then had a couple of track condition upgrades during the afternoon and it was not hot. Will we get that?

This isn't a new problem. He is just a continuation. I don't solely blame NZRB, the codes themselves are just as culpable - they have strongly supported the 'initiatives' that have led us here. It's very typical of local and national government as well, to have zero accountability.

You've been getting some good placing ftf. Imagine if you'd followed the blue print. Here are today's specials. Super BT specials Track Race # Runner Otaki 1 1 BALHAM Otaki 1 2 DIESEL Otaki 1 5 MISSY MOO Otaki 3 9 FICTITIOUS Otaki 4 4 DIVINE POWER Otaki 4 9 WHAT A SMASHER Otaki 6 2 CARICATURE Otaki 6 3 LEADING ROLE Otaki 8 8 DANCE FOR MONEY Other specials Otaki 3 6 NITRO TED Otaki 5 6 BELLE DU NORD Otaki 5 7 SWEEPSTAKE Otaki 6 5 TINKALICIOUS Otaki 6 10 EM KAY POPS Otaki 8 9 PLAY THE FIELD

It may well do. It also may not. I can give you examples of horses doing that, that have never won a race. What it doesn't do is show whether it has greater ability than the horses it is racing against in THIS race. And what it also doesn't do is relate to the horses CHANCE in THIS race. You keep writing stuff that is so easily refuted. And yet, I'm sure you'll be back again. And I'll be sure to give your posts another miss for a week. It has the same relationship with chance that the quote of yours above has. None. So I agree with the part about the letter of the horse's name not relating to chance. Well done. Why concern yourself with what others do that you don't understand. Others aren't telling people what can work for them long term. And that they have the answers. You're the one telling everyone your blue print is what can help them with their punting. I've provided a massive amount of strong anecdotal evidence that you and your blue print are wrong. All you've done is provide post race winners. Which I can do as well - take Nocturnal as an example. Great price and followed the blue print of starting with the letter N. Tomorrow, I'll add to the blueprint and give you a different letter. As for unlucky or any of that other stuff, I'm not sure what knowing that I ignore that stuff provides you. Not all punters bet based on trying to work out what a horse does from one race to the next. I don't. If I did, maybe I'd care. But I don't. I'm far more interested in assessing the horses ability overall - something one race is highly unlikely going to tell me.

Brainless. The BP that is akin to choosing a letter from the alphabet. Could have just chosen the letter N yesterday and had a nice collect off Nocturnal. The facts are that the BP has the same relationship with chance of a horse in a race as choosing a letter of the alphabet does. Zero. With the volume of anecdotal evidence I have put up pre race, (as opposed to winners post race), it's hard to argue with any form of intelligence against that. Let alone basic logic which also states that there is no relationship. Not that he'd understand that either.

I suspect our resident nutter will come on claiming O'hara and Jimmy Rocket were Blue Print specials, and what are you complaining about. Yet from yesterday and today, there have been 12 of them - and those were the only two winners. There are always going to be winners, but so many losers. The winners look good after they have won.

The whole topic of times is interesting - but they are only comparable imo, if you understand the tracks and conditions. If you look at straight times and compare a race run a Te Teko for example with a race run at Woodville, then your comparison will be flawed. It's an area I believe most punters don't consider when assessing performance. And of course there are the many that don't even consider time at all. That's their call. I prefer the ability too compare a performance at one track with a performance at another by understanding the track factors and associated track based performance.

As fantastic as that would be, I expect the timing of the Arc along with prospective weights make it unlikely.

It's always nice to see the state governments give a little of their bounty back. Totally different model there to here. Vic could give $45 mil every year back to the industry and still not give back more than they get just from Tabcorp license fees.

8 wins in 3 years might be brilliant. I can't tell as I'd expect winners to come from horses that have the ability to win. Strike rates and number of wins doesn't define that.

It was a top effort - beating the previous best Japan Cup by 1.5 seconds. So whatever way you look at it, the performance is brilliant, best run or not. And she would have won 3 wide, no problem in my view. That's just one of those things we'll never know. The run of Kiseki was also top class.

Yes, a few do it. Makybe Diva broke 2 minutes when she won the Australian Cup. In Japan, it is more frequent.

I have read it is on turf. Might be on any surface.

Brilliant performance She ran 45.8 for the final 800m. Kiseki ran the opening 2000 in a tick over 1.57!

I'd go Cheval Grand and at odds, Satono Crown.