mardigras

He does. And I've found the ones that seem to want to scream that the loudest are the most insecure - and have the realisation that things aren't what they are continually trying to claim. If he tells us enough times, there is a chance someone might start believing him. curious may be able to shed some light on such a disorder.

Clearly a typo.

FTF, the rules I have don't go back more than 20 months (that takes out the Irish form in maidens) - that was based on Thomass siting Black Lace. And I also have a distance variance limit for races of higher class. If that limit is incorrect, we'll end up with a lot more horses - I thought 74 yesterday was already enough!

I think that's called assessing when a horse is capable of running a strong race. And so it has proven.

That will only count if it wins. Will have to update the rules if so.

And this discussion is around the supposed correlation between the class of race, raced in and the chance of the horse in a future race. Funnily enough, I don't think the horse knows what class it raced in. And there is no correlation.

I expect some of these may well win. The punters seem to as well. But are they value?

After a tough day yesterday with a total of 74 starts winning 8 races - with a total TAB SP return of $43.90. Today we will reverse that trend! Today is the day we are going to bring home the bacon. track race # runnername class superior recent class comment Ruakaka 1 1 HELLO IT'S ME BM82 G2/LR/multiple superior LR perfromances over shorter trips, and a G2 winner - in a R82. Unbeatable Ruakaka 1 3 MEMORIES ONLY BM82 G3/LR very unlucky in a G3, wide throughout. Lump on. Ruakaka 2 3 ROCANIC BM65 BM75 Littered with R75 performances - in a R65. it's a no brainer. Added advantage of the Blinkers off and the rest is easy. Ruakaka 2 6 WILIJONMCBRIDE BM65 BM75 Running in superior races Forgive LR runs at HQ. Very unlucky and often wide. This will be too easy. Ruakaka 2 7 ANGELINE BM65 G2/G3 G2&G3 performances and now at the right distance. Nose band On which is the second best legal go fast. Take an Armourguard truck to the TAB. Ruakaka 3 14 POWER OF STRENGTH MDN 2Premier Premier 2yo performance down to a lowly maiden. Ruakaka 6 8 DUBLIN ROSE MDN 2Premier Premier 2yo against a bunch of no-hopers. What margin? Ruakaka 8 2 AMAZING AZ MDN MDN SPEC Special Cond maiden against a bunch of scrubbers. Lump even more on. Ruakaka 8 11 ADIS MDN G2/multiple A G2 2nd - still in maiden grade. Blinkers on first time. This ticks all the boxes. Mortgage the house. Ruakaka 9 2 DANGER DEE BM65 BM75/multiple Top runs in R75 and an unlucky run in a G2. Won't be beaten. Ruakaka 9 4 O'GUY BM65 LR Stamped himself a horse of far superior class with a close up 4th in LR. Rating 65 - get real. Shadow Roll goes on - and the only thing the opposition will see is his shadow lengths in front.

If I'd know that, i would have dumped him. Where did he finish - 4th. Sounds about right.

All above board me. I can't make Thomass look bad - he is very capable of doing that without me.

They were probably the ones that won. But 4 winners from 30 is not good given the prices. And of the next 18 (which I can put up), 1 has been a winner at 6s. 5 winners from 48 starts - about the ratio you would get with a dartboard. Probably get some at better odds with a dart as well.

Yes, those results from curious seem better than expected. No doubt I'll find out some more rules on Monday.

Just thought that for 4 - that was 20% which seems popular as a number.

How many hooves? 5% for each I expect.

I think Stokers Rock could go well also, but at $12 NZ TAB, too low for me. I price him at $14 (inclusive of margin)

At around 7s, I like Ascot (UK) 13:05 (R1), #2 El Astronaute

..Or black type company in Germany) LOL

Yep - both make the ultra reliable Down in Grade list - so all good. Fill ya boots.

Definitely ignore price. When it wins, it is by default "value" and the others weren't - based on what I've read on here.

And I stopped where I did because I got to Pukekohe R5 and I couldn't come up with any new comments for the 8/11 remaining runners in that race that all have 'superior' performance - all though you'd have to go Tattybogler given the significant gear change of Hoof Pads( Front) Off. If I had to include Pi, I'd probably have to bring up all 11 runners and how would that help anyone

I do all of these selections without using a brain - like Thomass does.

Busy day today - and armed with the new rules from Thomass. We are going to have a great day. Here are just a few of the races to start with. Let's see how we go. Even added some comments to help the punters. actualtrack race # runnername class superior recent class comment Riccarton Park 2 8 AJAY TEE MDN LR From a 1.6L LR down to a maiden. This will be a walk in the park. Riccarton Park 2 12 LET HER RIP RILEY MDN SPEC MDN Riccarton Park 3 1 AMUN RA BM72 OPEN/multiple 5th in a G2 HB Guineas and a 3rd beaten 1L in the Open Waimate Cup. Easy Riccarton Park 3 2 MANHATTAN STREET BM72 OPEN/multiple 4.6L off them in an Open race in the Nth Island. Only bad luck beats him Riccarton Park 3 3 KENSINGTON BM72 BM85 HQ form in R85. Ready to pounce. Riccarton Park 3 5 GALWAY GARRY BM72 BM80 Strong run is superior class. Looks the goods. Riccarton Park 3 6 WISE MOVE BM72 OPEN A 1.2L 4th in a Open race. What beats him wins. Riccarton Park 4 1 LOCALLY SAUCED BM72 OPEN/multiple Riccarton Park 4 2 WHAT'S UP ALF BM72 OPEN/multiple Riccarton Park 4 3 THE MAN BM72 BM82 Proven handles the quick backup. Can't lose. Riccarton Park 4 4 HAND IT TO JONESY BM72 OPEN/multiple 0.4L off the winner in the Whyte Hcp. With the addition of the Tongue Tie,, this will be a doddle. Riccarton Park 4 5 SATIN GURU BM72 BM85 R85 performer if you please. What more do you need to know? Riccarton Park 4 7 LADY BEALEY BM72 BM85 Superior performer. Forgive last start - was wide! Riccarton Park 4 8 LIN BM72 BM80 Riccarton Park 4 9 SPIDER LILY BM72 BM90/multiple You only have to read the stipes report when beaten 3L in a R90 to know this one won't lose. "Over-raced in the early stages. Hung for the majority of the event and lost ground near the 700 metres when making the bend awkwardly. Held up over the final 50 metres" Pukekohe 2 4 SMEDLEY BM72 OPEN Who could forget this horse winning the Whangarei Gold Cup - twice! Blinkers off today - get on. Pukekohe 2 7 SHE'S ALL CLANG BM72 OPEN 2nd Te Awamutu Cup - now ina R72. How easy is this. Pukekohe 2 8 WHERE ARE YOU BM72 BM85 Injured from a 2.4L R85 event. Back racing and showing the right signs. Riccarton Park 5 1 TABARD BM72 BM82 Riccarton Park 5 2 KING COUGAR BM72 BM82 Riccarton Park 5 3 KENSINGTON BM72 BM85 HQ form in R85. Ready to pounce. Riccarton Park 5 4 MR CONDUCTOR BM72 OPEN/multiple Riccarton Park 5 5 THE CZAR BM72 BM80 Riccarton Park 5 7 ISHINKTAATLEDO BM72 BM85 Riccarton Park 5 8 VICE MARSHALL BM72 OPEN/multiple Riccarton Park 5 15 FREE AND EASY BM72 BM82 Blinkers On - racetrack certainty. Feel The Fear - if this wins, it will be all because of the blinkers! Pukekohe 3 1 MIGHTY ME BM72 BM85 Pukekohe 3 2 SOLMIZATION BM72 BM85 Blinkers on today. Margin will be huge. Pukekohe 3 5 SANTA MONICA BM72 BM85 Pukekohe 3 6 MIDNIGHT RUNNER BM72 LR/multiple 4.9L off them in a LR and very unlucky. Head to the back of the tote. Pukekohe 3 10 MYRCELLA BM72 BM85 Riccarton Park 7 3 SALAMANCA OPEN G3/multiple A G3 performer against this lot? Riccarton Park 7 4 TWOZNOTENOUGH OPEN G3/multiple Multiple Black type perfromer and LR winner. Load it up. Riccarton Park 7 6 TIMY TYLER OPEN G2/multiple G2 superior performer and LR 2nd. Times and margins please judge.

And whilst we know (by we, I mean everyone except Thomass), that strike rate is not the best indicator. However, I had to put something up that he is capable of understanding. I could have worked it based on things like 'punter chance' from starting prices, or many other ways. The reality is (and has been known for a long time), you have to understand the impact to the individual horse, not guess something will happen because the trainer is a top trainer, or the horse is one of Thomass' post race selections. We have been trying to tell him that applying rules the way he does, is just idiotic.

I gotta say, the Hayes factor when it comes to blinkers on first time is astounding. From 4 years of info, Hayes has managed to achieve a blinkers on first time strike rate of 11% (across all starters 14%). Those runners have provided an ROI if you backed them all of 61% back in the $. (across all starters 78% in the $). Looks to me like the punters follow them in like you - and wonder why they lose - like you.

Like that will ever happen. Frauds don't tend to do that sort of stuff.