mardigras

Thomass loves his little comparisons and why Not Usual Current was so good in the G1. Here's one for him considering he claimed a mdn 2yo performance is worthless. Same day as the mdn run, Paulownia won the race after. In a slower time, same distance. Next start runs 2nd in a G2 beaten a nose by Scott Base that had already won the Karaka Million 3yo race earlier that year. He'll just discount it since both horses were runs in maiden races. Who knew?

Pretty sure I can do more than one thing at a time. As for you, I knew you had totally screwed yourself as usual. I come on here to reinforce it due to you actually thinking you know things about punting. NZ racing is having enough difficulty attracting punters without reading your crap. Black type blah blah blah. You're full of it. Shit that is. You love stats. Cos you're stupid. Would you like the stats from just Black Type HQ performances?

Yeah - success rate on here is 100% or very close to it. Legendary. Clearly he has sold us a lemon to put us off the trail.

Finally we all agree. This shit is what matches your blue print for down in grade. And there is no doubt, it is shit. Good to see you catching on.

Wonderful mare. Liked the run of 2nd!

Look, not the best day. 43 selections and four winners - $19.50. As for the black type specials, I think it was just an off day. 19 selections and 1 winner at $2.30. At least we have tomorrow and beyond. These results must just be a figment of my imagination.

Sure did - and available at $15 on betfair - but not for much. Good selection from Weasel (& barryb)

Imagine my surprise to see it was the only horse in the race that wasn't down in grade from black type universal class!

Here we have a few runners today (even I Suggest!!). I can imagine the response if that wins. I've added the special indicator for black type specials. And time of race to avoid missing out! Those having performed to the universal black type level - finishing with 5L of the winner. Enjoy. Track race easterntime # runnername class black type special Te Rapa 1 12:45:00 PM 1 ASSIGN OPEN * Te Rapa 1 12:45:00 PM 2 GALLANTE OPEN * Te Rapa 1 12:45:00 PM 4 JOCHEN RINDT OPEN * Te Rapa 1 12:45:00 PM 6 YOUWANTMORE OPEN * Te Rapa 2 1:20:00 PM 2 MY GIFT BM65 Te Rapa 2 1:20:00 PM 9 PRODIGAL SON BM65 Waverley 2 1:41:00 PM 2 KOTAHI BM65 Waverley 2 1:41:00 PM 7 MISS LIZZIE BM65 Te Rapa 3 1:55:00 PM 2 HE'S CAVALIER BM82 * Te Rapa 3 1:55:00 PM 3 WAIPIPI LAD BM82 * Te Rapa 3 1:55:00 PM 4 GRAND RIO BM82 * Te Rapa 3 1:55:00 PM 5 ANGEL IN BLUEJEANS BM82 * Waverley 3 2:16:00 PM 2 TICKET CLIPPER BM72 Waverley 3 2:16:00 PM 3 NITRO TED BM72 Waverley 3 2:16:00 PM 4 EVA JENSINE BM72 Waverley 4 2:49:00 PM 2 BATABULLET BM72 Waverley 4 2:49:00 PM 3 CHOICE ATTITUDE BM72 Waverley 4 2:49:00 PM 5 BROTHER ONE BM72 Waverley 4 2:49:00 PM 6 COOL MOON BM72 Waverley 4 2:49:00 PM 8 GLORY DAYS BM72 Te Rapa 5 3:05:00 PM 2 STACCATO BM72 Te Rapa 5 3:05:00 PM 5 OHCEEDEE BM72 * Te Rapa 5 3:05:00 PM 7 GRIS DAME BM72 * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 2 DOLCETTO OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 3 LADIES FIRST OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 4 DUFFERS CREEK OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 5 RINGO OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 6 SAMPSON OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 7 DARCI MAC OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 8 NYMPH MONTE OPEN * Waverley 5 3:24:00 PM 9 HELLO M'LADY OPEN * Waverley 6 3:59:00 PM 1 DURHAM BM65 Waverley 6 3:59:00 PM 4 THAT'S FUNNY BM65 Waverley 6 3:59:00 PM 11 DO YA BM65 Waverley 7 4:34:00 PM 5 ONEFORTHEDITCH BM65 Waverley 7 4:34:00 PM 6 MR COOL BOY BM65 Waverley 7 4:34:00 PM 9 MASTER PATRICK BM65 Waverley 7 4:34:00 PM 11 I SUGGEST BM65 Te Rapa 8 4:50:00 PM 4 GABRIEL BM65 Te Rapa 8 4:50:00 PM 7 ARTISTE BM65 Te Rapa 8 4:50:00 PM 8 BLACK LACE BM65 Te Rapa 8 4:50:00 PM 9 PEARLESCENCE BM65 Te Rapa 8 4:50:00 PM 11 MASTER GENIE BM65

Some I quite like. Gilgandra R4 #3 Sparkling City (up against an odds-on) Gilgandra R6 #7 Girl Most Likely - should be at big odds! Tatura R10 #11 Punjab Rocket - also at massive odds. Newmarket 14:45 (R2) #6 Neola Most at big odds, Should they all lose - I'm sure I'll hear about it.

Think is a definite chance in that race - although just under what I rate it at currently ($10). For value, look at the Q with Wonder Lass.

Looks to me like Thomass has single-handedly argued successfully against his own stupid idea. He'd make a great lawyer - for opposing council. The performance data I put up was exactly what he wants. Apples with apples. It is based on runs in black type at a track such as Ellerslie compared to ONLY runs at Ellerslie, same condition, same distance. Where they fall outside the 'universal times' for each class at that track ONLY. There is no comparison in any of that, between a horse running at Ellerslie and a horse running at Trentham. There is no comparison between a horse running on a track rated 6 with a track rated 3. It is solely track/condition/distance based (as was mentioned - but the remedial reading class isn't helping Thomass). He doesn't do time. But he also doesn't know when a performance is outside the 'universal time' for each class. It is the funniest thing. An aside from all that, he has openly admitted he cannot in any way compare a maiden that ran over 1200m at Trentham with a maiden that ran over 1200m at Ellerslie. He just uses a dartboard when they meet. No wonder he came back on this site last night and read this thread - and didn't write anything. He's shot himself in the foot with his lack of punting knowledge. He's a novice - and a fraud.

I'd certainly agree that Greyhounds are subsidising Thoroughbreds - and to a large extent. Thoroughbreds get all favours. NZ Greyhounds don't even get to run meetings on Saturdays and have them aired during the busiest period of racing betting. They let Thoroughbreds and the occasional Harness meeting go it alone. Their costs associated with production (I'm talking TAB production) are significantly less. They are getting shafted. Even if they were following the original definition of S16, they'd still be getting shafted. I expect they are the only NZ racing code that could sustain itself from earnings it earns for itself. There isn't a hope in hell of the other two doing that.

Sorry, are you attempting to say something intelligent to me? I haven't compared NZ times on completely different tracks. Where have i done that?

I didn't give two examples about why your claim is false. You are seriously confused. You are going on about my assessment of a runner. The info I presented is unrelated to what I think of the performance of any horse. It IS the actual performance of horses in black type compared to actual times for the same track/condition/distance based on where those black type performances sat compared to all runners. I knew you didn't understand it. So I'll spell it out. Black type performers that don't run up to a level of performance(something you stated to be universal), do not perform well when racing down in grade subsequent to that black type performance. The slower, the worse the results are. Understand? No, didn't think so. Performance trumps class - and massively so. It's there - only you don't comprehend it as remedial maths is a long way off completion for you.

Yep, as discussed, he must just get off on having people respond to him. It has to be a wind up.

Still nothing I see. Oh sorry, you've got one example to supposedly support your notion. That's all you ever have. Stupid one off examples post race. That's just further evidence that you are out of your depth. The information I put up wipes your entire idea and throws it down the toilet with the rest of your crap.

You've proven nothing. You have nothing. And your post above confirms that Mr Fraud. ps - which runner of the two at Tauranga has the highest rating in NZ?

I mention it for YOU. YOU would have to adjust the time to be even faster. Makes your G1 run look like a track gallop. And the facts I put up about black type follow on performance that you call a 'figment' are evidence otherwise.

It doesn't mean almost everything. It is the measure of how long it took a horse to run a race. And races are won by the horse that does that in a race, the fastest. Other things can relate to performance apart from just overall time . Some will use sectional times, some maximum speed and how long, or fitness level at the time. Some might even use things like being held up. These things are what the horse did/incurred in the race. Class isn't involved. The horse didn't know what class of race it was in. Sane people will assess a real factor relating to the performance. Not a factor that has no bearing on what the horse actually does. Like class of race.

Why would they. Black Type is a simple classification. Simple as that. Time is far too complex for you to understand yet you think breeders would be able to come up with a classification that people could understand. Funny thing is, when I'm betting on a race, I don't look at the breeding catalogue. And the next funny thing is, you lose at punting yet claim class to be the best factor. I've already presented evidence that it is clearly not. Refute my evidence. Show us where what I put up is wrong.

I hardly bet here because there is no money here. I don't bet using a keyboard or sitting on a computer or going to a TAB so the only time I bet here is when i go to the races for a day out here. So, given there is no money in NZ racing, there is no point betting here. The 2yo maiden effort was better. That's my opinion of course. But it is backed up by the fact it ran a lot faster on a slower track and with more weight. And last time I looked, races seemed to be won by the horse that ran from the start to the finish line the fastest. Your opinion hasn't been backed up by anything except class of race and comparing it to other horses. Do you want me to compare the counties time to other horses? As for measuring distance. That can be said about any track. Just spend five minutes and understand the information I presented. if the performance in Black Type can't even achieve a time within the top 30% for that track/condition/distance - the follow on results are no better than a dart thrown at a racebook. And even worse than that is that you have zero ability to work out the difference between a performance at Ellerslie and one at Trentham. You have to rely on class of race. Which is clearly flawed. You are a novice when it comes to this stuff. Finally you get to the point. We don't have a clue about how you apply your stupid guidelines. And since no-one knows, it makes your 'blue print' worthless. Yet you continue going on about it. Don't, and I won't have to destroy it with facts. Anyone following your blue print should be put in the padded room beside yours.

Sure did select it as value when it ran at 60s+. Didn't go nuts when it placed. Just ridiculed you because you labelled the horse a total no-hoper maiden. I've never seen a total no-hoper maiden run a place before in my entire life. But you managed to get one to. Twice. Well done.

According to this, we have someone who doesn't use times. Just uses class of race. And that Black Type almost always are run at a good clip. Surely with around 5% of races in NZ being Black Type and they are solid runs - almost always the horses will run faster than other classes of race. So what would that mean for Black Type. Almost always, the times for these races would be in the top 15th percentile, the top 30th percentile? Surely at least that high - since 30% of the starts will be that fast - and these races are superior. So I had a look. And here are the results of horses starting in Black Type in NZ since 1st Jan, 2017 that raced in a low grade race subsequent. From rating 65 and below. These Black Type horses should be massively superior - according to our resident fraudster. I was keen to see whether the margin in the black type event made much difference to their follow on performance. Or whether time seems to correlate better. And here are the results. Within 15th Perecentile Greater 15th Perecentile Margin BT Starters Winners Win Divs Strike Rate ROI Starters Winners Win Divs Strike Rate ROI <=4L 123 27 $128.50 21.95% 1.045 302 45 $226.00 14.90% 0.748 <=5L 156 35 $167.10 22.44% 1.071 407 54 $289.00 13.27% 0.710 <=6L 199 42 $213.10 21.11% 1.071 468 60 $350.80 12.82% 0.750 <=7L 217 46 $275.10 21.20% 1.268 615 73 $430.50 11.87% 0.700 <=8L 229 47 $279.20 20.52% 1.219 712 87 $500.00 12.22% 0.702 Within 30th Perecentile Greater 30th Perecentile Margin BT Starters Winners Win Divs Strike Rate ROI Starters Winners Win Divs Strike Rate ROI <=4L 234 48 $210.90 20.51% 0.901 191 24 $143.60 12.57% 0.752 <=5L 297 59 $264.40 19.87% 0.890 266 30 $191.70 11.28% 0.721 <=6L 377 73 $371.80 19.36% 0.986 290 29 $192.10 10.00% 0.662 <=7L 452 81 $448.50 17.92% 0.992 380 38 $257.10 10.00% 0.677 <=8L 484 85 $460.80 17.56% 0.952 457 49 $318.40 10.72% 0.697 Thomass won't understand this. But it is pretty clear that a) there are a heck of a lot of horses racing in Black Type that perform time wise outside the top 30th percentile on a track/condition/distance basis. b) The strike rate of those running slowly in Black Type was largely unaffected by the margin they were beaten by in Black Type - strongly suggesting that time is the key ingredient when assessing performance. c) those horses that actually perform to more like a Black Type universal level(such as in the top 15th percentile), also perform better in their follow on races and their strike rate is also largely unaffected by the margin beaten - again strongly suggesting that time is the key ingredient when assessing performance. d) the further away from running to a Black Type level that a horse runs, the less likely their follow on races will be winning ones. Of course Thomass just blindly bets based on class. It is people like him that make my job easier. This is the reason why he rates horses like Firebird Flyer and Adis as being superior. The obvious news is - that the better the performance with the bigger margin, the greater likelihood that punters will ignore it - because they don't understand how to assess a horse from one track to another and base a lot of 'form' on placings and margins. Horses don't know they are in Black Type. They don't race better in a slow Black Type race than they do in a slow R65 race. Why would they? I expect the usual from Thomass since he hasn't graduated past remedial maths. But those are the facts.

But that's because someone told you this a long time ago - and you believed them. When it is far from the case.