~The Champions sprint...because...

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, holy ravioli said:

So that hasn't changed...yet...your backing price for Imperatriz was-' I make her $1.60 chance. '...latest update....Just that by my pricing Imperatriz is now backable at $2.😐

Do you understand the concept of "value" in a punting strategy?

[holy ravioli]

Just now, Chief Stipe said:

Well then FFS learn how to use the quoting system properly!

Usual problem...your comprehension ,deficiencies.

Anyway we now know Curious has a methodology that oscillates like a weather vane.

[holy ravioli]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

Do you understand the concept of "value" in a punting strategy?

You can argue black is white...all you want.

'Value' is just another subjective ...variable.

[Gammalite]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

Last win over 1200m was October 2021 - over two years ago.

Carried 51.5kg.  Now 56.5kg at WFA.

1st win in over a year.  Ran 12th in the Newmarket.  Dropping back to 1200m.  Think It Over  About It now looking for further (bred to be a miler!).

The straight Six at Flemington is a strange beast Chief.

Flemington straight 6 Is Very Well suited to 1400m specialists , that finish hard late on. (compared to a standard 1200m race at any other track)

Espiona eats up 1400m , as do In Secret and Bella Nip (both race well Flemington 12's already )

I think Imperatriz is big risk here.  

(would of loved a straight six with some of my pacers Chief 😄 I would of been do'in the NAJEM SUHAIL lol . can't wait for race 5 Flemington today to see if he does it again like Saturday 😂  ) 

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, holy ravioli said:

You can argue black is white...all you want.

'Value' is just another subjective ...variable.

What Is Value Betting?
A value bet is when you calculate the true odds of an event happening. Then you compare this to the bookmaker’s odds to see if you can make a positive return on a wager. This approach to sports betting requires knowledge of expected value (EV bets) and the bookmaker margin.

First, the EV of any wager is the difference in probability placed by the bettor and the bookmaker. Second, the bookmaker margin is the difference between true probability of an event happening and the odds set by the betting brand.

Or in 101 terms for the Pasta:

If you price a horse at $1.60 and a bookie offers you $2.15 then that is a value bet.

[holy ravioli]

'Chiefly logic'....

As I suspected In Secret's sectionals overall in comparison weren't exceptional.  Very good all the same.  The fastest last 600m of the field.  Her last 200m slower than her second last which in my opinion would indicate she had used up all her gas. 

and....'Private Eye ran the fastest last 600m.  Only beaten a short half head.'

Go...figure.🤣

 

[Chief Stipe]

7 minutes ago, holy ravioli said:

Anyway we now know Curious has a methodology that oscillates like a weather vane.

@curious doesn't actually.  His method is very much a standard betting strategy although his weighting of certain variables may differ from others he is essentially still looking for value.

[holy ravioli]

2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

@curious doesn't actually.  His method is very much a standard betting strategy although his weighting of certain variables may differ from others he is essentially still looking for value.

'A value bet is when you calculate the true odds '

I see, so are only you and Curious able to ascertain these 'true value...odds?

The professional bookmakers must be in....awe!😁

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, holy ravioli said:

'Chiefly logic'....

As I suspected In Secret's sectionals overall in comparison weren't exceptional.  Very good all the same.  The fastest last 600m of the field.  Her last 200m slower than her second last which in my opinion would indicate she had used up all her gas. 

and....'Private Eye ran the fastest last 600m.  Only beaten a short half head.'

Go...figure.🤣

 

What we've figured is you can't use the quoting system.  Part of your obfuscation strategy.

Private Eye did run the fastest last 600m.  He made up more ground than the winner and just got pipped on the line.  As I said the run of the race in my opinion.

[holy ravioli]

6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

What we've figured is you can't use the quoting system.  Part of your obfuscation strategy.

Private Eye did run the fastest last 600m.  He made up more ground than the winner and just got pipped on the line.  As I said the run of the race in my opinion.

All the same the quotes are 100% accurate.

I accept your defence ...though...'can't ..recall'!🤣

[Chief Stipe]

9 minutes ago, holy ravioli said:

'A value bet is when you calculate the true odds '

I see, so are only you and Curious able to ascertain these 'true value...odds?

The professional bookmakers must be in....awe!😁

So you don't bother to work out a price at all?  So therefore you can't possibly work out what is value - just gut feel based on emotion?  I'm picking @curious if In Secret was priced at $4.50 and Imperatriz at $1.80 wouldn't have a bet.  But you'd be "piling it on like brylcreem"!  

 

[holy ravioli]

Just now, Chief Stipe said:

So you don't bother to work out a price at all?  So therefore you can't possibly work out what is value - just gut feel based on emotion?  I'm picking @curious if In Secret was priced at $4.50 and Imperatriz at $1.80 wouldn't have a bet.  But you'd be "piling it on like brylcreem"!

You're diverting...as per usual.

My point is these so called 'true odds'...cannot be substantiated....because they are mere...opinion.

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, holy ravioli said:

You're diverting...as per usual.

My point is these so called 'true odds'...cannot be substantiated....because they are mere...opinion.

I'm not diverting.  Anyone's "true odds" don't need to be substantiated - that's the price they have put on a horse winning.  Anything better than that is value.  How did you determine $4.50 was a good price?  

[holy ravioli]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I'm not diverting.  Anyone's "true odds" don't need to be substantiated - that's the price they have put on a horse winning.  Anything better than that is value.  How did you determine $4.50 was a good price?  

My determination that $4.50 or better represented a 'good' price was comparing it to  who I considered her main rivals prevailing...quote.

Surely Imperatriz fans are taking this opportunity to double their money...and even 'pile it on ...like....'😉

Or maybe they have ...doubts after all the bullish..sentiment.

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, holy ravioli said:

My determination that $4.50 or better represented a 'good' price was comparing it to  who I considered her main rivals prevailing...quote.

Surely Imperatriz fans are taking this opportunity to double their money...and even 'pile it on ...like....'😉

Or maybe they have ...doubts after all the bullish..sentiment.

"good price" - sounds subjective.  So $5.50 would be value?

There's no such thing as a certainty in racing.  

[curious]

8 minutes ago, holy ravioli said:

Surely Imperatriz fans are taking this opportunity to double their money...and even 'pile it on ...like....'😉

Absolutely. Not because I'm an 'Imperatriz fan' though, but because the bookies think she's a less than 50% chance and I think she's a 60+% chance.

[holy ravioli]

43 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

"good price" - sounds subjective.  So $5.50 would be value?

There's no such thing as a certainty in racing.  

 it's 'subjective'...duh.

'There's no such thing as a certainty in racing'...you're so...profound!☺️

[holy ravioli]

33 minutes ago, curious said:

Absolutely. Not because I'm an 'Imperatriz fan' though, but because the bookies think she's a less than 50% chance and I think she's a 60+% chance.

Good luck.I'll still take her in the Quaddie.

Be interesting what tactics they will employ.Up on the pace with cover...my guess.

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, holy ravioli said:

Good luck.I'll still take her in the Quaddie.

Be interesting what tactics they will employ.Up on the pace with cover...my guess.

Will they split?  Or will they go left or right?

[holy ravioli]

15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Will they split?  Or will they go left or right?

Down the hey...diddle...diddle.

8M out.

[curious]

2 hours ago, Gammalite said:

The straight Six at Flemington is a strange beast Chief.

Flemington straight 6 Is Very Well suited to 1400m specialists , that finish hard late on. (compared to a standard 1200m race at any other track)

Espiona eats up 1400m , as do In Secret and Bella Nip (both race well Flemington 12's already )

I think Imperatriz is big risk here.  

(would of loved a straight six with some of my pacers Chief 😄 I would of been do'in the NAJEM SUHAIL lol . can't wait for race 5 Flemington today to see if he does it again like Saturday 😂  ) 

Maybe but she has won a couple of Group races at 1400, so I'm not sure that would bother her.

[Doomed]

7 hours ago, Gammalite said:

The straight Six at Flemington is a strange beast Chief.

Flemington straight 6 Is Very Well suited to 1400m specialists , that finish hard late on. (compared to a standard 1200m race at any other track)

Espiona eats up 1400m , as do In Secret and Bella Nip (both race well Flemington 12's already )

I think Imperatriz is big risk here.  

(would of loved a straight six with some of my pacers Chief 😄 I would of been do'in the NAJEM SUHAIL lol . can't wait for race 5 Flemington today to see if he does it again like Saturday 😂  ) 

As Curious mentioned Imperatriz has won three Group 1s over 1,400 and 1,600, plus a Group 2. So best not to consider her a 1,000m and 1,200m specialist.

[Doomed]

7 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

What Is Value Betting?
A value bet is when you calculate the true odds of an event happening. Then you compare this to the bookmaker’s odds to see if you can make a positive return on a wager. This approach to sports betting requires knowledge of expected value (EV bets) and the bookmaker margin.

First, the EV of any wager is the difference in probability placed by the bettor and the bookmaker. Second, the bookmaker margin is the difference between true probability of an event happening and the odds set by the betting brand.

Or in 101 terms for the Pasta:

If you price a horse at $1.60 and a bookie offers you $2.15 then that is a value bet.

Value is a very interesting concept. I am very much a value punter and always have been.

Interestingly, it is not a concept that some people understand.

I once knew a very keen and very regular punter who believed that if you liked a horse you backed it, regardless of price. He would happily back a horse at $1.50 that I rated a $5 chance. Many punters in fact get extra confidence if a horse that should logically be paying $5 is only paying $1.50.

A lot of punters are more likely to get scared off if a horse is paying too much.

[holy ravioli]

1 hour ago, Doomed said:

As Curious mentioned Imperatriz has won three Group 1s over 1,400 and 1,600, plus a Group 2. So best not to consider her a 1,000m and 1,200m specialist.

I think a case for her could be made for being a Moonee Valley...specialist...3grp1's in Oz..all at MV.

Roll on Saturday...

[Gammalite]

2 hours ago, Doomed said:

10 hours ago, Gammalite said:

I would of been do'in the NAJEM SUHAIL lol . can't wait for race 5 Flemington today to see if he does it again like Saturday 😂  ) 

As Curious mentioned Imperatriz has won three Group 1s over 1,400 and 1,600, plus a Group 2. So best not to consider her a 1,000m and 1,200m specialist.

Loved the way Imperatriz was able to 'go forward' at her last start.

Hope they (Opie and the mare)  get to use the  FAST LANE that Najem Suhail used today to great effect . It drew barrier 9 today which is about the lane Imperatriz has drawn >>>> so hope Opie was watching very closely today . 

MUMBAI MUSE used that same 'lane' to great effect as well to gather in Saltaire today in the 7th race. is quite important in those straight sixes as finishes are often decided narrowly. 

She has the Alley and LANE to win . Just gotta keep up there early .