Hey Chief…. Views on Damask Rose?

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Thanks Hesi…. at last some common sense. Simple as, not up to that class. 

In your opinion.  We don't know yet.  There are a number variables that you sitting at home have no idea about nor do I nor does @hesi .  Certainly she is up to Grp 3 level as proven in her last two starts.  The best you can offer is starting in an R85 at Kangaroo Island.  I must remember not to send a horse to any stable you rate.

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, hesi said:

Same thing for all intents and purposes.

Have a look at the nominations for the Queen of the Turf Stakes, the cream of Aus female racing.  She is just not even close to that class

I don't disagree that she will have to improve.  BUT sometimes these fields drop away really quickly.  

Personally I think they are aiming for something else.  Both you and @Newmarket being supreme form analysts will have worked out by now the patterns available to her and the path towards them.  Although @Newmarket says she isn't even up to OZ Grp 3 which she obviously is and would send her to Kanagaroo Island or prep her for the Kumara Gold Nuggets.  

[hesi]

Drawing a long bow there CS.  This debate is about the merits of a horse based on what we have seen, not on what she just might improve enough to do, which is very nebulous.

Yes the fields do fall away, but there are so many good genuine G1 quality horses in Aus, that she would still be up against several horses rated well above her.

It does show that these restricted races in NZ are at about G3 level, and at best our racing is at G3 level, notwithstanding that we are still capable of producing some extraordinary horses that are well up to G1 level in Aus.  Let's hope that both Well Written and Ohope Wins carry on that trend.  Neither has beaten much, just the way they have ability to make up so much ground.  We saw that in recent years with horses like Legarto and Verry Elleegant

[Murray Fish]

17 hours ago, curious said:

Just had a look myself at the run. I thought it was pretty good. I'd be happy with that if she were mine.

same,  looked tight there down on the rail,  looks like a mare with plenty of fight still in her!

 

[Chief Stipe]

16 minutes ago, hesi said:

Drawing a long bow there CS.  This debate is about the merits of a horse based on what we have seen, not on what she just might improve enough to do, which is very nebulous.

But what have you "seen"?  At least @hesi you have given some justification for your opinion.  In terms of "improving" being nebulous perhaps I should have said if she gets back to the level she has shown in the past then she will be competitive in races better than Grp 3 in OZ.

20 minutes ago, hesi said:

Yes the fields do fall away, but there are so many good genuine G1 quality horses in Aus, that she would still be up against several horses rated well above her.

She is currently rated at 103 which is just a few points below the elite level.  When she first raced in OZ her rating was 104.  Her first campaign lost her a point.  There have been any number of horses that have won a Grp 1 with a lower rating at this stage in her career.

25 minutes ago, hesi said:

It does show that these restricted races in NZ are at about G3 level, and at best our racing is at G3 level, notwithstanding that we are still capable of producing some extraordinary horses that are well up to G1 level in Aus.

Then you rate Evaporate as only a Grp 3 horse?

[Chief Stipe]

The other thing I would point out and not wishing to be a smart arse but it is published knowledge that after the KiwiB Damask Rose underwent fetlock chip surgery.  So her lead up to OZ racing wasn't that straightforward.

In her 2 and 3 yr old seasons she wasn't too far behind the likes of Velocious, Alabama Lass and Captured by Love.

 

[Shab]

Nice horse but kiwi win was a fluke when Blake got a lucky run. Not gunna get that much luck too often but no harm in trying as good enough to win a group 2 or 3 when such luck comes again.

[Murray Fish]

19 minutes ago, Shab said:

good enough to win a group 2 or 3 when such luck comes again

hence!    making her a valuable Mare in the current Market!

[hesi]

2 hours ago, Shab said:

Nice horse but kiwi win was a fluke when Blake got a lucky run. Not gunna get that much luck too often but no harm in trying as good enough to win a group 2 or 3 when such luck comes again.

Great ride, but yes, never went around a single horse

[hesi]

5 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

The other thing I would point out and not wishing to be a smart arse but it is published knowledge that after the KiwiB Damask Rose underwent fetlock chip surgery.  So her lead up to OZ racing wasn't that straightforward.

In her 2 and 3 yr old seasons she wasn't too far behind the likes of Velocious, Alabama Lass and Captured by Love.

 

You are starting to sound like Brendan Popplewell

[Murray Fish]

12 minutes ago, hesi said:

You are starting to sound like Brendan Popplewell

(from the slowlearnersclub)pray tell,  explain better?

[hesi]

9 minutes ago, Murray Fish said:

(from the slowlearnersclub)pray tell,  explain better?

His whole basis of form appraisal is based on who franked who.  Embarrassing to listen to.  That's where CS was heading lol

[Chief Stipe]

18 hours ago, hesi said:

His whole basis of form appraisal is based on who franked who.  Embarrassing to listen to.  That's where CS was heading lol

Isn't that how any form analysis or ratings are calculated?  Isn't racing all about winning and who you beat?  Then compared to who they are up against next?  I'm sure the irony of what you are saying doesn't escape you when the whole basis of your critique is who DR has raced against and been beaten by!

[Chief Stipe]

I see the beached cannine @Comic Dog the self judged more learned and knowledgeable online commentators have needed to go talk to a horse valuer to challenge my assessment that Damask Rose is probably worth around $1.5m+ (NZD!) as a broodmare at this stage of her career.  Valuing any bloodstock is a subjective exercise and only an auction gives the true market value. 

But having followed the Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale for a number of years I would say my analysis was close to the mark.  You only have to look through the sales results to see broodmares sold around the AUD$1.3m mark that have done far less on the racecourse to say that contrary to one persons view if Damask Rose sold for AUD$500k you would be quite disappointed.  Some people should really graduate from reading comics and watching cartoons!

https://catalogue.magicmillions.com.au/sale/25GWM

[Newmarket]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I see the beached cannine @Comic Dog the self judged more learned and knowledgeable online commentators have needed to go talk to a horse valuer to challenge my assessment that Damask Rose is probably worth around $1.5m+ (NZD!) as a broodmare at this stage of her career.  Valuing any bloodstock is a subjective exercise and only an auction gives the true market value. 

But having followed the Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale for a number of years I would say my analysis was close to the mark.  You only have to look through the sales results to see broodmares sold around the AUD$1.3m mark that have done far less on the racecourse to say that contrary to one persons view if Damask Rose sold for AUD$500k you would be quite disappointed.  Some people should really graduate from reading comics and watching cartoons!

https://catalogue.magicmillions.com.au/sale/25GWM

I dont think anyone would disagree with you…. told us all many times you are never wrong. 

[Chief Stipe]

4 hours ago, Newmarket said:

I dont think anyone would disagree with you…. told us all many times you are never wrong. 

I haven't EVER said I was NEVER wrong.  That's not to say I'll never back up my statements with rational logical argument.  Still waiting for @Newmarket and @JJ Flash to post something that does.

[Newmarket]

10 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I haven't EVER said I was NEVER wrong.  That's not to say I'll never back up my statements with rational logical argument.  Still waiting for @Newmarket and @JJ Flash to post something that does.

When have you ever posted….

Sorry all, i was wrong with my comments i posted previously…

You will be hunting a long time, as for me, i admit when wrong because i am not an arrogant arsehole.

[Chief Stipe]

44 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

When have you ever posted….

Sorry all, i was wrong with my comments i posted previously…

You will be hunting a long time, as for me, i admit when wrong because i am not an arrogant arsehole.

That's a bit rich coming from someone who starts a Topic with the intention of bagging a horse that has just picked up a couple of Group 3 placings in OZ.

I'm not arrogant enough to tell Mark Walker one of NZ's most successful trainers that he should race his horse for $46k at Kangaroo Island.  Instead the Grp 3 OZ placing has added more residual value.

I then stick my neck out giving an opinion on what I think that residual value currently is knowing full well that I will be on the end of trolling and derision.  I then post a brief rationale of how I determined that figure.  No one else as done that one way or another just like I provided an opinion backed by analysis on her performances.  

One troll from another site @Comic Dog     read my residual value comment and supposedly rang a couple of bloodstock valuers to try and score points.  Probably because they are not as knowledgeable as they make out to be or too lazy to do some research.  Mind you the same types think Jamie Richards is doing really well in Hong Kong when the statistics show otherwise.  4 seasons to get 100 winners and has always been in the bottom half of the trainers premiership.   

If you want to be in a misogynist  echo chamber where only those that agree with each other are allowed to comment or where the site owner bans you for posting the very type of post you just did then go for it.

[Chief Stipe]

51 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

You will be hunting a long time, as for me, i admit when wrong because i am not an arrogant arsehole.

Why would I go "hunting" for those posts when there is @Newmarket , @JJ Flash , @Huey and @Comic Dog doing it for me?