Hey Chief…. Views on Damask Rose?

[Chief Stipe]

37 minutes ago, curious said:

Do you mean this? it's a pretty small difference isn't it?

 

From the 6:00 AM raceday inspection, the following values were recorded:

• Inside: 9.0
• Outside: 8.6
• Shear: 11.3
• Moisture: 35%

7% isn't it?  Isn'r that significant?

[curious]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

7% isn't it?  Isn't that significant?

What does that equate to in race time? I didn't see any races from there which is why I asked. I knew from those readings that it was likely to be marginally better on the inside.

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, curious said:

What does that equate to in race time? I didn't see any races from there which is why I asked. I knew from those readings that it was likely to be marginally better on the inside.

They essentially all won on pace and on the inside.  The OZ commentors (which I rate)  explained Damask Rose's odds lengthening from $4.4 to over $6 was due to the prevailng pattern working against her draw and racing style.  Under the circumstances her run had a lot of merit.  Especially when she was 3 wide albeit with cover for most of the race and wider on entering the straight.

In the Newmarket it was noticeable they didn't split and all tried to get to the inner.

[curious]

From what I can see for the 4 straight sprints, 3 were won on the outside, only the Newmarket on the inside?

[Chief Stipe]

34 minutes ago, curious said:

From what I can see for the 4 straight sprints, 3 were won on the outside, only the Newmarket on the inside?

Ok so now you are looking at the races you didn't see yesterday.  Go back and look at those sprinr races.  Compared to the Newmarket they were small fields.  The barriers that the horses started from were in the middle of the lane i.e. there was an even number of empty gates each side of the track.  Over 1000 and 1100m a Jockey in a small field would be brain dead to go more distance to get to the inside.

The Newmarket was a large field spread across the track. After 100 to 200m they all went to the inside.

[curious]

6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Ok so now you are looking at the races you didn't see yesterday.  Go back and look at those sprinr races.  Compared to the Newmarket they were small fields.  The barriers that the horses started from were in the middle of the lane i.e. there was an even number of empty gates each side of the track.  Over 1000 and 1100m a Jockey in a small field would be brain dead to go more distance to get to the inside.

The Newmarket was a large field spread across the track. After 100 to 200m they all went to the inside.

That maybe. I'm not disagreeing necessarily but it seems that concluding the pattern favoured the inside prior to the Newmarket is a bit of a leap.

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, curious said:

That maybe. I'm not disagreeing necessarily but it seems that concluding the pattern favoured the inside prior to the Newmarket is a bit of a leap.

Look at races 4, 5, 6, and 7.  Plus 8.

When they got to the Newmarket the Jockeys weren't keen on staying out wide.  That could have been a collective mindset.  It created a logjam.

Regardless I first made the comment in respect of Damask Rose's chances.  It did put me off Tentyris.

[curious]

The track drying out during the course of the day may have been a factor too.

[Huey]

15 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

@Huey I don't recall you ever posting any tips just boring negativity.  No one likes a grumpy old man sadly.  Why don't you line up for your nightly tot of rum and let the rest of us enjoy racing.?!

Once again a good horse beaten by the track.  Inside was the place to be all day today at Flemington.

Read back in the thread, I tipped the winner, before it ran and without bringing up nonsense about sectionals,  what are you the Bride of Aidan Rodley or something?