Hey Chief…. Views on Damask Rose?

[Chief Stipe]

37 minutes ago, curious said:

Do you mean this? it's a pretty small difference isn't it?

 

From the 6:00 AM raceday inspection, the following values were recorded:

• Inside: 9.0
• Outside: 8.6
• Shear: 11.3
• Moisture: 35%

7% isn't it?  Isn'r that significant?

[curious]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

7% isn't it?  Isn't that significant?

What does that equate to in race time? I didn't see any races from there which is why I asked. I knew from those readings that it was likely to be marginally better on the inside.

[Chief Stipe]

6 minutes ago, curious said:

What does that equate to in race time? I didn't see any races from there which is why I asked. I knew from those readings that it was likely to be marginally better on the inside.

They essentially all won on pace and on the inside.  The OZ commentors (which I rate)  explained Damask Rose's odds lengthening from $4.4 to over $6 was due to the prevailng pattern working against her draw and racing style.  Under the circumstances her run had a lot of merit.  Especially when she was 3 wide albeit with cover for most of the race and wider on entering the straight.

In the Newmarket it was noticeable they didn't split and all tried to get to the inner.

[curious]

From what I can see for the 4 straight sprints, 3 were won on the outside, only the Newmarket on the inside?

[Chief Stipe]

34 minutes ago, curious said:

From what I can see for the 4 straight sprints, 3 were won on the outside, only the Newmarket on the inside?

Ok so now you are looking at the races you didn't see yesterday.  Go back and look at those sprinr races.  Compared to the Newmarket they were small fields.  The barriers that the horses started from were in the middle of the lane i.e. there was an even number of empty gates each side of the track.  Over 1000 and 1100m a Jockey in a small field would be brain dead to go more distance to get to the inside.

The Newmarket was a large field spread across the track. After 100 to 200m they all went to the inside.

[curious]

6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Ok so now you are looking at the races you didn't see yesterday.  Go back and look at those sprinr races.  Compared to the Newmarket they were small fields.  The barriers that the horses started from were in the middle of the lane i.e. there was an even number of empty gates each side of the track.  Over 1000 and 1100m a Jockey in a small field would be brain dead to go more distance to get to the inside.

The Newmarket was a large field spread across the track. After 100 to 200m they all went to the inside.

That maybe. I'm not disagreeing necessarily but it seems that concluding the pattern favoured the inside prior to the Newmarket is a bit of a leap.

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, curious said:

That maybe. I'm not disagreeing necessarily but it seems that concluding the pattern favoured the inside prior to the Newmarket is a bit of a leap.

Look at races 4, 5, 6, and 7.  Plus 8.

When they got to the Newmarket the Jockeys weren't keen on staying out wide.  That could have been a collective mindset.  It created a logjam.

Regardless I first made the comment in respect of Damask Rose's chances.  It did put me off Tentyris.

[curious]

The track drying out during the course of the day may have been a factor too.

[Huey]

15 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

@Huey I don't recall you ever posting any tips just boring negativity.  No one likes a grumpy old man sadly.  Why don't you line up for your nightly tot of rum and let the rest of us enjoy racing.?!

Once again a good horse beaten by the track.  Inside was the place to be all day today at Flemington.

Read back in the thread, I tipped the winner, before it ran and without bringing up nonsense about sectionals,  what are you the Bride of Aidan Rodley or something?

[Newmarket]

16 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I bet there are questions asked about the track bias at Flemington today.

Well… i have to agree with you there. Did favour those on pace, so those making ground did ok, even the Rose. 

[Chief Stipe]

“Damask Rose just missed getting up over 1600m at Flemington on Saturday and she’ll run next in the Sunline Stakes (Gr.2, 1600m) at Caulfield on Saturday week."

[Newmarket]

On 10/03/2026 at 8:36 AM, Chief Stipe said:

“Damask Rose just missed getting up over 1600m at Flemington on Saturday and she’ll run next in the Sunline Stakes (Gr.2, 1600m) at Caulfield on Saturday week."

Thats good to know… we can discuss again

[Chief Stipe]

On 23/02/2026 at 4:00 PM, Chief Stipe said:

I see the beached cannine @Comic Dog the self judged more learned and knowledgeable online commentators have needed to go talk to a horse valuer to challenge my assessment that Damask Rose is probably worth around $1.5m+ (NZD!) as a broodmare at this stage of her career.  Valuing any bloodstock is a subjective exercise and only an auction gives the true market value. 

But having followed the Magic Millions National Broodmare Sale for a number of years I would say my analysis was close to the mark.  You only have to look through the sales results to see broodmares sold around the AUD$1.3m mark that have done far less on the racecourse to say that contrary to one persons view if Damask Rose sold for AUD$500k you would be quite disappointed.  Some people should really graduate from reading comics and watching cartoons!

https://catalogue.magicmillions.com.au/sale/25GWM

Just for the @Comic Dog - NOTE - I didn't say $2m - I said around $1.5m.  BTW that was my opinion i.e. I didn't "ring a couple of valuers" as you did to form your opinion.

[curious]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

  BTW that was my opinion i.e. I didn't "ring a couple of valuers" as you did to form your opinion.

I didn't think there was a right way and a wrong way to form an opinion, though some can be more informed than others. However, I guess that's jmo.