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Bit Of A Yarn

Thomaas and Mardigras - Tancred Stakes


Chief Stipe

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No need to PM. Happy to put my current odds up. You won't get anything from Thomass because he needs to hear what the winning trainer states post race etc. My market to 100%. I'd certainly not be touching the fav even as the most likely winner. The rest of the field is fairly even. 

   

Mardigras

TAB

1

AVILIUS

$3.40

$1.60

2

MUNTAHAA

$16.00

$51.00

3

RED CARDINAL

$15.00

$7.00

5

SOUND

$32.00

$101.00

6

PATRICK ERIN

$20.00

$35.00

7

VENGEUR MASQUE

$30.00

$51.00

8

BIG DUKE

$12.00

$12.00

9

VENTURA STORM

$21.00

$71.00

10

YOGI

$15.00

$18.00

12

BRIMHAM ROCKS

$15.00

$31.00

13

ACE HIGH

$13.00

$35.00

14

RONDINELLA

$40.00

$15.00

15

NETTOYER

$16.00

$31.00

16

DOUKHAN

$28.00

$61.00

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

No need to PM. Happy to put my current odds up. You won't get anything from Thomass because he needs to hear what the winning trainer states post race etc. My market to 100%. I'd certainly not be touching the fav even as the most likely winner. The rest of the field is fairly even. 

 

 

 

 

   

Mardigras

 

TAB

 

1

 

AVILIUS

 

$3.40

 

$1.60

 

2

 

MUNTAHAA

 

$16.00

 

$51.00

 

3

 

RED CARDINAL

 

$15.00

 

$7.00

 

5

 

SOUND

 

$32.00

 

$101.00

 

6

 

PATRICK ERIN

 

$20.00

 

$35.00

 

7

 

VENGEUR MASQUE

 

$30.00

 

$51.00

 

8

 

BIG DUKE

 

$12.00

 

$12.00

 

9

 

VENTURA STORM

 

$21.00

 

$71.00

 

10

 

YOGI

 

$15.00

 

$18.00

 

12

 

BRIMHAM ROCKS

 

$15.00

 

$31.00

 

13

 

ACE HIGH

 

$13.00

 

$35.00

 

14

 

RONDINELLA

 

$40.00

 

$15.00

 

15

 

NETTOYER

 

$16.00

 

$31.00

 

16

 

DOUKHAN

 

$28.00

 

$61.00

 

 

Interesting you have ace high at $13 mardigras, it gives me some hope, I thought it a great place chance.

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11 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said:

Interesting you have ace high at $13 mardigras, it gives me some hope, I thought it a great place chance.

Based on his record, he wouldn't want it to get wetter. Him and Muntahaa are the two I'm favouring most at this point. 

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10 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Based on his record, he wouldn't want it to get wetter. Him and Muntahaa are the two I'm favouring most at this point. 

Muntahaa, great 2nd up record, not sure what the Sydney weather is doing tomorrow, as you elude to both need the track a bit dryer.... well done for putting your bollocks on the chopping block and putting a market up Mardi, Good stuff!

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Looks like heavy rain in the early hours and morning. 

I'm going to stick with the Duke :)  - he's been running on in the softer going and has good course/distance stats.  He won't mind if it gets wetter.  Followed him to this point so not keen to drop him now  :)    He and Avdulla seem to get on well.

 

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2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Well Muntahaa has no wet track form.

As mentioned, I wasn't wanting a wetter track. At the current level, I wouldn't bet on the race, although with Muntahaa, I wouldn't say the track is a problem, just an unknown.

Edited by mardigras
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on wet track and course stats looks like Avilius, Red cardinal and Big Duke 3 horse war as the market suggests...

James Mac adds to the Favs resolve...double ya money to be up out of your seat and  on the verge of a heart attack, watching Red Cardinal sail home for a place (could even steal it)...well that's my 2 cents worth ...for whats its worth !

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1 hour ago, porky said:

on wet track and course stats looks like Avilius, Red cardinal and Big Duke 3 horse war as the market suggests...

James Mac adds to the Favs resolve...double ya money to be up out of your seat and  on the verge of a heart attack, watching Red Cardinal sail home for a place (could even steal it)...well that's my 2 cents worth ...for whats its worth !

The complete opposite to Mardi, he has it as a terrible unders runner. Like Mardi, I have it at $13.00, poor value.

I have Avilus at $3.40 again poor value, opposite to Mardi as I have Rondinella at $8.00 great overs for me. 16 Doukan is great overs, I have it at $16.00, Yogi also great value as I have it rated $9.00

 

Edited by barryb
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38 minutes ago, barryb said:

The complete opposite to Mardi, he has it as a terrible unders runner. Like Mardi, I have it at $13.00, poor value.

I have Avilus at $3.40 again poor value, opposite to Mardi as I have Rondinella at $8.00 great overs for me. 16 Doukan is great overs, I have it at $16.00, Yogi also great value as I have it rated $9.00

 

Good one barry. I'd say I can often underestimate the level of horse from NZ in Oz, so for a horse like Rondinella, the level I have assessed it at in NZ is lower than the runners it is against today - hence why I have it at the longest odds. But that's what makes racing so good - differing views and assessments.

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12 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Good one barry. I'd say I can often underestimate the level of horse from NZ in Oz, so for a horse like Rondinella, the level I have assessed it at in NZ is lower than the runners it is against today - hence why I have it at the longest odds. But that's what makes racing so good - differing views and assessments.

Yep for sure, even selections after the days racing have a place, although that place is fairy land.

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25 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Good one barry. I'd say I can often underestimate the level of horse from NZ in Oz, so for a horse like Rondinella, the level I have assessed it at in NZ is lower than the runners it is against today - hence why I have it at the longest odds. But that's what makes racing so good - differing views and assessments.

dont get me wrong Baz...I would love Rondinella to do it.

Any Kiwi win is special..;mate we had some hair-raising Brisbane Carnivals when Roughy was "stickin it up em"

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFhfmgddFVk 

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My update.

 

 

Mardigras open

TAB open

Mardigras upd

TAB upd

1

AVILIUS

$3.40

$1.60

$3.50

$1.60

3

RED CARDINAL

$15.00

$7.00

$11.00

$6.00

5

SOUND

$32.00

$101.00

$32.00

$101.00

6

PATRICK ERIN

$20.00

$35.00

$18.00

$26.00

8

BIG DUKE

$12.00

$12.00

$9.00

$10.00

9

VENTURA STORM

$21.00

$71.00

$23.00

$61.00

10

YOGI

$15.00

$18.00

$13.00

$18.00

12

BRIMHAM ROCKS

$15.00

$31.00

$12.00

$26.00

13

ACE HIGH

$13.00

$35.00

$12.00

$31.00

14

RONDINELLA

$40.00

$15.00

$34.00

$14.00

15

NETTOYER

$16.00

$31.00

$15.00

$26.00

16

DOUKHAN

$28.00

$61.00

$22.00

$51.00

 

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20 hours ago, mardigras said:

My update.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mardigras open

 

TAB open

 

Mardigras upd

 

TAB upd

 

1

 

AVILIUS

 

$3.40

 

$1.60

 

$3.50

 

$1.60

 

3

 

RED CARDINAL

 

$15.00

 

$7.00

 

$11.00

 

$6.00

 

5

 

SOUND

 

$32.00

 

$101.00

 

$32.00

 

$101.00

 

6

 

PATRICK ERIN

 

$20.00

 

$35.00

 

$18.00

 

$26.00

 

8

 

BIG DUKE

 

$12.00

 

$12.00

 

$9.00

 

$10.00

 

9

 

VENTURA STORM

 

$21.00

 

$71.00

 

$23.00

 

$61.00

 

10

 

YOGI

 

$15.00

 

$18.00

 

$13.00

 

$18.00

 

12

 

BRIMHAM ROCKS

 

$15.00

 

$31.00

 

$12.00

 

$26.00

 

13

 

ACE HIGH

 

$13.00

 

$35.00

 

$12.00

 

$31.00

 

14

 

RONDINELLA

 

$40.00

 

$15.00

 

$34.00

 

$14.00

 

15

 

NETTOYER

 

$16.00

 

$31.00

 

$15.00

 

$26.00

 

16

 

DOUKHAN

 

$28.00

 

$61.00

 

$22.00

 

$51.00

 

 

 

So 9 neddys rated at value...you back all 9 or is it still only top 4 you indulge?

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