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5 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

 Do you ever take note of what weight a horse carries when it has won Bazza. A lo of horses are unable to carry decent weights to win. They get to a certain winning weight level, get handicapped above their maximum winning weight and then struggle to win. When they lose enough points and their allocated weight has come back down to what they can win with they can hit winning form again.  

Thats very true.

Some years ago I trained two medium-sized geldings,  one was unable to win carrying anywhere near topweight,  despite being [ as I thought ] a pretty fair horse.  Once started up a couple of grades and down to the bottom of the weights,  he was very effective and won a black-type race.

The other guy,  although much inferior,  could plug along and earn a dollar in highweights despite not being a big horse.

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15 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

 Do you ever take note of what weight a horse carries when it has won Bazza. A lo of horses are unable to carry decent weights to win. They get to a certain winning weight level, get handicapped above their maximum winning weight and then struggle to win. When they lose enough points and their allocated weight has come back down to what they can win with they can hit winning form again.  

Where do I find the information on what weight a horse can carry before they are a over there maximum winning weight.

Again as per the chief, you have posted a subjective analysis that cannot be determined, its purely a guess.

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You stated that horses rising in weight have a significant advantage over those dropping in weight, yet you don't factor this into your betting.

If it's such a significant advantage, surely you'd have a "system" finding horses rising in weight and those dropping in weight, to help with your "value" finding.

Or... is it not that significant?

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Barry - clearly you're a system punter, which is fine.

Tell us what notable systems you've used in the past to good effect.

Please post your +/- as I'm looking to add system plays to my repertoire and want to learn from the Punting Ace himself.

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29 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

You stated that horses rising in weight have a significant advantage over those dropping in weight, yet you don't factor this into your betting.

If it's such a significant advantage, surely you'd have a "system" finding horses rising in weight and those dropping in weight, to help with your "value" finding.

Or... is it not that significant?

Did I say they represent value?  No. You are the one chasing multitudes of winners, maybe you should be including it in your criteria.

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1 hour ago, SLB2.0 said:

Barry - clearly you're a system punter, which is fine.

Tell us what notable systems you've used in the past to good effect.

Please post your +/- as I'm looking to add system plays to my repertoire and want to learn from the Punting Ace himself.

 

I would be most wary to any of Barry's systems SLB2.0. He doesn't factor in weight, nor any gear changes and whatever else, who knows, and his last two punting systems have been shown to be complete disasters which he continually refuses to admit. 

He seems a person unable to make any shift/change in his punting thinking, which is not a bad thing, as it ultimately helps us on the tote. ? 

Unfortunately a lost soul that cannot be helped. ?  

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I'm not going to argue against the stupid who are distorting the markets based on weight but here's some data I have from NZ handicaps .... about 20,000 runners. That's after excluding horses that didn't carry their carded weights and those on the minimum from out of the handicap. Draw your own conclusions but I think it will be consistent with what barryb has told you 100 times.

Males carrying carded weight – all handicaps

Weight band

Class

 

 

 

Wins vs expected

 

60.5kg+

All

 

 

 

130.8%

 

 

59.0 - 60.0kg

All

 

 

 

117.7%

 

 

57.5 - 58.5kg

All

 

 

 

102.8%

 

 

56.0 - 57.0kg

All

 

 

 

98.4%

 

 

54.5 - 55.5kg

All

 

 

 

88.8%

 

 

54kg-

All

 

 

 

86.1%

 

 

 

Females carrying carded weight – all handicaps

Weight band

Class

 

 

 

Wins vs expected

 

60.5kg+

All

 

 

 

46.1%

 

 

59.0 - 60.0kg

All

 

 

 

154.3%

 

 

57.5 - 58.5kg

All

 

 

 

115.1%

 

 

56.0 - 57.0kg

All

 

 

 

134.0%

 

 

54.5 - 55.5kg

All

 

 

 

114.2%

 

 

54kg-

All

 

 

 

88.2%

 

 

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6 hours ago, All The Aces said:

 

Bazza will still be a denier SLB2.0 and refuse to accept any such a concept. 

 

I must say I take my hat off to anyone that puts their bollocks on the line and puts up tips on this or any other forum as Barry and Mardigras used to do, it's not easy but easy for people to criticize in hindsight. 

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I have on the very first page stated:

"Superior horses in lower grades weight factor is insignificant but you state you DON'T factor weight in ANY of your per race analysis."

"I believe it is a factor in the "major handicaps" and what more proof do you need than looking at the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup (two of the biggest handicaps around) over the past 70 odd years.  History clearly shows top weights have a very tough job to win those races yet you have no consideration for this aspect."

And my discussion throughout has been re "major handicaps" and more specifically Cups races which I outlined earlier.

Your stats Curious I gather cover ALL handicap races over All grades and All distances?  

Lets take the Wellington Cup for example this century:

Winning weights have been: 52kgs, 53kgs, 52.5kgs, 51.5kgs, 53.5kgs, 57.5kgs, 55kgs, 53.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 57kgs, 53kgs, 56kgs, 54kgs, 52kgs, 52.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 56.5kgs, 53kgs, 53kgs - Average 53.5kgs. 

Auckland Cup this century:

Winning weights have been. 56kgs, 55.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 51kgs, 52kgs, 53kgs, 52kgs, 52.5kgs, 55.5kgs, 57.5kgs, 54.5kgs, 55kgs, 54.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 52kgs, 55kgs, 53.5kgs, 54kgs, 53.5kgs -  Average 53.5kgs

Which is pretty similar to the Melbourne Cup stat of average winning weight of the race = 54kgs.

 

 

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And what is the average weight of all runners in those races for that period ATA? If it is close to the average weight of the winners then that's what you would expect isn't it and you've shown no variance from that in your examples.

Yes, what I posted is all classes as I stated and all distances. I can tell you though that the analysis for open class middle distance races looks much the same. There is no significant difference based on class or distance of race.

What you need to consider is that if you take a race like the MC with 24 runners, then in a perfect handicap you'd expect the top-weight to win 4.2% of runnings so about once every 25 years. That's why my above analysis shows the percentage of winners to what would be expected. In a race with say an average of 12 runners you'd expect the top-weight to win in 8.3% of occurrences.

I don't have enough data to check just major staying races where they were run under the same or similar handicapping conditions but I have no reason to believe that the findings would be any different.

Edited by curious
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3 hours ago, All The Aces said:

Winning weights have been: 52kgs, 53kgs, 52.5kgs, 51.5kgs, 53.5kgs, 57.5kgs, 55kgs, 53.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 57kgs, 53kgs, 56kgs, 54kgs, 52kgs, 52.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 56.5kgs, 53kgs, 53kgs - Average 53.5kgs. 

Auckland Cup this century:

Winning weights have been. 56kgs, 55.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 51kgs, 52kgs, 53kgs, 52kgs, 52.5kgs, 55.5kgs, 57.5kgs, 54.5kgs, 55kgs, 54.5kgs, 52.5kgs, 52kgs, 55kgs, 53.5kgs, 54kgs, 53.5kgs -  Average 53.5kgs

Which is pretty similar to the Melbourne Cup stat of average winning weight of the race = 54kgs

I don't see your point about averages.  No mention of Standard Deviation.  Plus in each of the two cups only ONE horse has carried the average weight to win "this century."  So I don't see how weight would help you select either the winner or value.

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9 hours ago, Flagship uberalles said:

I must say I take my hat off to anyone that puts their bollocks on the line and puts up tips on this or any other forum as Barry and Mardigras used to do, it's not easy but easy for people to criticize in hindsight. 

My tips are on sites all around the world. They get 1,000,000 times more coverage than posting tips on a forum does, but each to their own.

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20 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

My tips are on sites all around the world. They get 1,000,000 times more coverage than posting tips on a forum does, but each to their own.

Yes, but if I put $1 to win on all of your tips at generally available prices, would I be a winner? 

If not, then your tips arent really tips, they just a set of selections.

If you did that with every selection I have put out on any forum you can find, you will have easily been a winner. Doubled your money even.

If your tips don't make a profit on level stakes, I'm pleased they are seen by millions. Helps with those punters that prefer winning than following tips such as yours.

So thanks.

Edited by mardigras
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6 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I don't see your point about averages.  No mention of Standard Deviation.  Plus in each of the two cups only ONE horse has carried the average weight to win "this century."  So I don't see how weight would help you select either the winner or value.

Curious has confirmed that the analysis he has provided is generic ie across all grades and distances and confirmed that he didn't have the data to confirm major staying races which are the races I have referred to throughout in my comments in this thread.

I have provided four major staying races which show they are incompatible with that generic list. I have provided the winning weights for the Wellington and Auckland Cups run since 2001 which do not marry up to that list and only put the average in just as an indication that it is much lower than the average would be on Curious's list.

Curious also states he would expect the topweight to win the Melbourne Cup about once every 25 years. We have had only one top weight win in the last 65 years.  (Caulfield Cup 1 in 69 years)

Personally I don't really care if people such as Barry completely ignore weight in such races, I do factor it in and cognitive of history in the major staying races.      

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I, personally, don't see it as drawing a line through a horse. It's factoring in various elements related to weight.

If a horse is carrying 61kg and is topweight, I don't automatically rule it out. I gather information as to whether it has carried that weight to win in the past etc etc etc.

BarryB and Curious don't have to factor weights into their handicapping. That's their prerogative, but to ambush people that do is just childish, naive and far too systematic to warrant my praise. 

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14 hours ago, curious said:

I'm not going to argue against the stupid who are distorting the markets based on weight but here's some data I have from NZ handicaps .... about 20,000 runners. That's after excluding horses that didn't carry their carded weights and those on the minimum from out of the handicap. Draw your own conclusions but I think it will be consistent with what barryb has told you 100 times.

Males carrying carded weight – all handicaps

 

Weight band

 

Class

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wins vs expected

 

 

 

60.5kg+

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

130.8%

 

 

 

 

59.0 - 60.0kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

117.7%

 

 

 

 

57.5 - 58.5kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

102.8%

 

 

 

 

56.0 - 57.0kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

98.4%

 

 

 

 

54.5 - 55.5kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

88.8%

 

 

 

 

54kg-

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

86.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Females carrying carded weight – all handicaps

 

Weight band

 

Class

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wins vs expected

 

 

 

60.5kg+

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

46.1%

 

 

 

 

59.0 - 60.0kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

154.3%

 

 

 

 

57.5 - 58.5kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

115.1%

 

 

 

 

56.0 - 57.0kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

134.0%

 

 

 

 

54.5 - 55.5kg

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

114.2%

 

 

 

 

54kg-

 

All

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

88.2%

 

 

 

 

 

Have I got this right? you exclude all that are not carrying their handicapped weight then conclude that the remainder are carrying their handicapped weight. How could it be otherwise?

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57 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

I, personally, don't see it as drawing a line through a horse. It's factoring in various elements related to weight.

If a horse is carrying 61kg and is topweight, I don't automatically rule it out. I gather information as to whether it has carried that weight to win in the past etc etc etc.

BarryB and Curious don't have to factor weights into their handicapping. That's their prerogative, but to ambush people that do is just childish, naive and far too systematic to warrant my praise. 

I think you are over reacting somewhat.  Others have their own strong opinions and they are free to express them.  Hardly a "systematic, childish, naive ambush"!

 

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12 hours ago, Flagship uberalles said:

I must say I take my hat off to anyone that puts their bollocks on the line and puts up tips on this or any other forum as Barry and Mardigras used to do, it's not easy but easy for people to criticize in hindsight. 

Nor do I have a problem with those that do so either, good on them, however Barry is a different kettle of fish. He has such a superiority persona and arrogance that he states he knows more than 99% of punters and bangs on about this and about "value"  ad infinitum.

That arrogance led him to start a thread to "prove" this regarding "value" which proved exactly the opposite, with him abandoning the concept when losses closed in on the four figure mark. In anyone's language losing bets are not any value at all. Not to be outdone he then started a different thread to prove another system of his would work. Starting off with a $1000.00 pool beginning with $20 bets and reducing the amount of the bet following a loss. The pool was close to halfway gone and the bets becoming smaller and smaller when that too was went quiet. The way that was going was even if he found a decent winner the bet would be that insignificant not to matter. This arrogance has continued by refusing to acknowledge that he fell flat on his face in both.

I make no claim to even knowing anything more than most punters just content to quietly chip away finding a winner here and there (even a blind squirrel finds a nut every so often) and enjoying a bet. I form my own analysis from experiences which I consider a help and try to bet accordingly and like most others have winning and losing days. Thoroughly enjoying the ride though.         

   

Edited by All The Aces
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