Thomass Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Melody Belle back in her paddock tonight with The Shark... ...he doesn't recognise her without the Blinkers obviously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 5 hours ago, mardigras said: I don't. I've stated that many times previously. Incredible. No video analysis of races or trials. You would be the first and only form analyst that I could name to anyone that fails to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Thomass said: She ran at least 0.35 secs FASTER than her previous Blinkerless head... ....You and your sister clueless curious haven't got the faintest idea about Compensatory Considerations when it comes to FORM ANALYSIS...so GIVE UP even trying.. "prove BO makes them go faster" is already transcribed on your combined love nest tombstone Crypts NZ Racing disagree. The rest of your mumbo jumbo is just the opinion of a loser. Faster track, and according to them, managed to run faster over the race distance by 0.01 of a second. Imagine if she had run on as slow a track. You're a delusional loser. Somebody best suited to continuing with your old profession of cleaning up shit for Messara. Eh Mr Fraud. What a joke you are. As usual, no evidence, just sfa. Just images running around in your head. I'd seek help for those 'ghosts' You're a fraud - you're not worth wasting time on. it's especially sad that you pretend to be something you aren't. That should be the signal for you to seek help. How very very sad. if I was you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, All The Aces said: Incredible. No video analysis of races or trials. You would be the first and only form analyst that I could name to anyone that fails to do so. I am also probably the only form analyst you could name that actually profits from betting year in, year out (apart from some of the other credible people that have offered assistance on this and other sites). If you socialised with those that win at punting, I expect they would helped you understand some very simple things that you clearly don't. Such as the elusion of 'down in grade'. Please tell us just one person you socialise with, that actually wins long term. Your brother? You? Yeah, sure. We get it. Edited November 25, 2019 by mardigras 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, mardigras said: NZ Racing disagree. The rest of your mumbo jumbo is just the opinion of a loser. Faster track, and according to them, managed to run faster over the race distance by 0.01 of a second. Imagine if she had run on as slow a track. You're a delusional loser. Somebody best suited to continuing with your old profession of cleaning up shit for Messara. Eh Mr Fraud. What a joke you are. As usual, no evidence, just sfa. Just images running around in your head. I'd seek help for those 'ghosts' You're a fraud - you're not worth wasting time on. it's especially sad that you pretend to be something you aren't. That should be the signal for you to seek help. How very very sad. if I was you. WTF...you're as CLULESS on this as you are on advising REDZEL's trainer he's WRONG! She COVERED EXTRA GROUND, requiring extra COMPENSATORY TIME CONSIDERATIONS.. Dan O'Sullivan recognises this fact... ...in fact ANYONE that has a f in CLUE does...except YOU.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 I expect covering extra ground is an advantage. Like she did in the Guineas. Which makes her time on the Good 3 even worse. I have never said Redzel's trainer is wrong. He has an opinion. I have an opinion. They differ. It's one of those indeterminable things. No one can say who's opinion is right and who's opinion is wrong. They are just opinion. Which you seem to base your entire approach on - even though you once tried to claim that you NEVER listen to trainers. What's your next lie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Pretty clear these discussions have come to an end. I've achieved what I wanted to do - expose the fraud for what he is. Given the responses he gets on other threads, I think his place is well known. I'll let ATA and the fraud engage with each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 9 hours ago, mardigras said: I expect covering extra ground is an advantage. Like she did in the Guineas. Which makes her time on the Good 3 even worse. I have never said Redzel's trainer is wrong. He has an opinion. I have an opinion. They differ. It's one of those indeterminable things. No one can say who's opinion is right and who's opinion is wrong. They are just opinion. Which you seem to base your entire approach on - even though you once tried to claim that you NEVER listen to trainers. What's your next lie? Oh my...are you STILL here? If REDZEL's trainer says "this horse NEEDS BLINKERS"...he needs Blinkers... Hes the PROFESSIONAL HORSEMAN... You picked up Haysey's Training partners horse poo one day after it unloaded on your foot before floating.... That must have been EMBARRASSING, as indeed your dissertations on ANYTHHING to do with Market %'s and/or HORSEMANSHIP is... In fact your LITANY of LUNACY re Neddy's now stretches into the stratosphere Rocketboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Fish Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 sigh, horse betting pool$ are driven by a pool of heterogeneous punters! sites like these are are heterogenous as well! Both the above can be good and bad for one's mental, physical, spiritual and economic health! Life has taught me that sometimes you just have to agree to disagree.... otherwise it very much Groundhog day, day, day, day.... sigh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Interesting reading value concept on the other site. Mardi's brother Bazza has had 1547 so far this year. This is the bloke that tried to prove to everyone two betting theories on how to make money with both ending disastrously very quickly with both threads abandoned. Anyone following either concept would go broke. Mardigras You say your system selects around 500 a horses a year, do you back all or cherry pick from the one's selected? I would total 150-170 bets per year no more and have never exceeded 200 in a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 50 minutes ago, All The Aces said: I would total 150-170 bets per year no more and have never exceeded 200 in a year. Across how many/what jurisdictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Fish Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, All The Aces said: I would total 150-170 bets per year no more and have never exceeded 200 in a year. for me, about 40 bets on racing! re the racing, 30 nz and 10 au almost never bet when there is rain on the day. almost no bets may through august. unlike many, i love betting into small fields... "small fish are sweet" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 23 hours ago, curious said: Across how many/what jurisdictions? Don't you and you boyfriend feel massively guilty for encouraging the likes of LFV into arising at 5 am every morning.. working the whole day on the 'shangri la' of 'systems' then losing his part time job... ...oh and you telling us you're only a "part timer"? ...'investing' only maidens here...because you ain't got a f in clue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 (edited) 23 hours ago, curious said: Across how many/what jurisdictions? . Edited November 27, 2019 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Mardigras, is your computer system based on a similar system that Bob Benter and Allan Woods used in Hong Kong in the early 90s? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, All The Aces said: Mardigras, is your computer system based on a similar system that Bob Benter and Allan Woods used in Hong Kong in the early 90s? I don't know enough of how their analysis worked. But they were certainly trying to place bets where they perceived the return amount was greater than the chance level - even in exotics. My approach is a very simple one. I am only looking to assess ability between starters in a race (given the race conditions). It could probably be improved by spending time reviewing things daily. But I don't see the value in doing so. It can't be improved by considering things like down in grade or gear changes, and it can't be improved by 3yo after Christmas either. Who knows whether it could be improved by analysing unlucky runs or trials as well. In saying that, the majority of keener punter are probably doing those things and identifying those unlucky runs or quality trials. So the prices of those runners reflects those things. I don't expect a horse is unlucky every start (or if they were, maybe they will be likely to be again). And I don't expect that a particular unlucky run is necessarily the defining performance the horse has undertaken. If it is and it wins next time, I'll know of its ability then. And I'm happy to miss those. As for the 500 - that is across UK and Oz, no cherry picking. I don't do automatic betting on NZ racing since there is no liquidity there. I bet manually there separately. That 500 is from around 22,000 races I analyse per year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: It can't be improved by considering things like …. gear changes And by that I mean, it can't be improved simply by understanding the trainer has changed gear or other generic things relating to gear changes. If I had a reason to support the idea the horse would actually perform better because of the gear, then who knows. I don't have the ability to decide that. That would have to be 100% horse dependant. Nothing to do with horse form, horse trainer, jockey opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 They used a sophisticated computer generated algorithms system to determine "win expectation" ie Multiplying the "horses" computer calculated probability by it's current odds. They both made hundreds of millions with Bob Benter striking a massive Triple Trio of $16 million which he never collected instead the Jockey Club giving it away to charity. They had a massive operation with a lot of people working for them. They both had teams of expert analysts including several Kiwis watching every race and video for subjective factors such as wide runs, unlucky runs, tempos etc. They found by doing this it made the algorithms far more effective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 And in doing that, they would be analysing every single horse for every single run. And they'd be pricing the whole field - which some on here say is stupid since so many don't have any chance??? And hours and hours of effort. As I've stated, some aspects of horse performance is something I fully support could be of value, even though I don't do it, such as analysis via video. Anything that relates to a specific horse, and is considered in relation to the specific horse, that is certainly not going to get a negative response from me. And in jurisdictions like NZ, the approach is not scalable. You can't simply increase your analysis effort and have the rewards increase in a linear fashion. The markets don't support it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Don't you and you boyfriend feel massively guilty for encouraging the likes of LFV into arising at 5 am every morning.. working the whole day on the 'shangri la' of 'systems' then losing his part time job... ...oh and you telling us you're only a "part timer"? ...'investing' only maidens here...because you ain't got a f in clue? I see you are replying on behalf of your brother now and as usual with nothing to do with the question I asked. If LFV chooses to sleep in till 5 am that's his business. Haven't invested on a maiden race in NZ for at least the last 6 or 7 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Thomass said: Don't you and you boyfriend feel massively guilty for encouraging the likes of LFV into arising at 5 am every morning.. working the whole day on the 'shangri la' of 'systems' then losing his part time job... ...oh and you telling us you're only a "part timer"? ...'investing' only maidens here...because you ain't got a f in clue? Shove it you jumped up turd. My contract came to an end because the charity was merging it's branches and no longer needed my services. Stop insinuating that I lost my "job", it was a contract that they no longer needed: "We will be managing the website and social media internally, so I am sorry to say that from this point we will no longer be contracting with you for your website services for us." The data I am inputting is not part of a system you moron. No one is encouraging me to rise at 5am. Go back to your after the race boasts you fraud. Get help. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 37 minutes ago, curious said: I see you are replying on behalf of your brother now and as usual with nothing to do with the question I asked. If LFV chooses to sleep in till 5 am that's his business. Haven't invested on a maiden race in NZ for at least the last 6 or 7 years. But he thinks it's the ONLY way to win long term... ...clearly you and your boyfriend have encouraged him into having no life, locked up in his room all day...entering data ...when there's other alternatives... Thats right 'Maidens in da States' was it.... You agree with your bf and Bazz that Whangas 11 is best value on the rail uh? No wonder you can't win here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 2 hours ago, mardigras said: I don't know enough of how their analysis worked. But they were certainly trying to place bets where they perceived the return amount was greater than the chance level - even in exotics. My approach is a very simple one. I am only looking to assess ability between starters in a race (given the race conditions). It could probably be improved by spending time reviewing things daily. But I don't see the value in doing so. It can't be improved by considering things like down in grade or gear changes, and it can't be improved by 3yo after Christmas either. Who knows whether it could be improved by analysing unlucky runs or trials as well. In saying that, the majority of keener punter are probably doing those things and identifying those unlucky runs or quality trials. So the prices of those runners reflects those things. I don't expect a horse is unlucky every start (or if they were, maybe they will be likely to be again). And I don't expect that a particular unlucky run is necessarily the defining performance the horse has undertaken. If it is and it wins next time, I'll know of its ability then. And I'm happy to miss those. As for the 500 - that is across UK and Oz, no cherry picking. I don't do automatic betting on NZ racing since there is no liquidity there. I bet manually there separately. That 500 is from around 22,000 races I analyse per year. Wow, what an incredible life you must have.... Travelling the World with your loving partner and Daughter in tow living it up at Ass Kit with a tip top hat on and Grey flannels... ...in Punce Pee Doh Andrew's closeted box next year after an invite perhaps? Its a real shame you can't encorporate KPI races into your amazing stats, or unlucky, or Course Specialsts, esp. at HQ though.. ...or 3yo against older horses after strengthening...in line with our Handicapping philosophy of diminishing allowances... When you're at Ass Kit next...You should book a meeting with the Brit Handicappers and tell them what they're doing wrong... But that Shrew Herman says we need to show some respect to you... ..because you're DA MAN... yea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 (edited) I think the Brit handicappers are pretty good. Don't think they're doing a lot wrong there except for allowances - which are not required. NZ and Australia could learn massively from them. Such as one win horses being rated very highly based on performance. Or the ability to re-rate a horse when it hasn't even started since the last time they rated it. As for generic weight scales - that is exactly what they are. And have zero relationship with an individual horse. Horses don't all mature at the same rate. But you think they do. Odd. Edited November 27, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 23 minutes ago, Thomass said: But he thinks it's the ONLY way to win long term... ...clearly you and your boyfriend have encouraged him into having no life, locked up in his room all day...entering data ...when there's other alternatives... Thats right 'Maidens in da States' was it.... You agree with your bf and Bazz that Whangas 11 is best value on the rail uh? No wonder you can't win here... coward can't respond to me it looks like. I don't lock myself in any room, unlike you in your residential home for the bewildered. I was entering data way before I got to know the fine gentlemen you try to malign but fail big time. Try pulling your head out of your arse and getting a life...a real life, not a made up one. I know your type, helped many of them over many years in my line of work. Some changed their lives, some didn't. That is life. Anyway, I only came back here to defend my reputation (a very good one too by all accounts) so au revoir and good luck with your self development (1000-1 against). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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