ALLIGATOR BLOOD v catalyst

[Murray Fish]

46 minutes ago, curious said:

Or under pressure and not good enough?

it almost look as if he took a bit of a beating up! once the race got to the serious stage!  good to hear the trainer say that the horse had come through it all well! will Lane now be jumping off?

 

[Mooncoin]

I was surprised that  Troy didn't  get the leg up when Lane was suspended! If Lane does jump ship, will Troy get the ride? Or has he lost his flying wings?

[Rusty]

I think the hood is going back on next start. 

[Freda]

The horse has been well looked after, and had his races carefully managed,  to the credit of Chipperfield.

But,  the stock of Darci Brahma, although winning prolifically here,  do not, as yet,  look stellar in Australia.

He does not deserve the bagging he has been getting,  he is a very, very good horse.  If he isn't up to the tough Aussie competition, well, he certainly isn't the first.

The hiding he got in his first run over there couldn't have benefitted a horse who may just be on the delicate side.....and he clearly showed the pressure he felt when turning his head and lugging last time.   Sore?  possibly...but flattened looks a more likely scenario...and the All Star Mile would not be on my list for him.    Something more modest to get his confidence back maybe -  but all the best to connections regardless.

And why do people jump on the blinkers option?  plenty of horses, good and bad,  wear them.

One knowledgable commentator from way back was very critical of 'blinkers'  being termed the 'badge of the cheat' .   He reckoned that many good and game horses were not allowed blinkers because of this ill-thought comment.   I think Alycidon was the horse he used as his example,  one of the best and bravest of his time,  but not effective without them.

 

[Fred]

Well summed up Freda.

It is unfortunate that jockeys [momentarily in charge] sometimes think they are driving racing cars rather than riding a delicate animal.

It appeared to me that McDonald in the first Australian run was concentrating on beating AB rather than concentrating on winning the race. Hence riding the horse upside down, Catalyst  [and Dragon Leap] are 'flashy' types who like things to go their way, alter their accepted pattern and smack them often and they will chuck in the towel. Don't get me wrong -they are exceptional horses that have yet to grow up. Given the blinkers and a quiet settled ride Catalyst could be amongst them in the big one

[Chief Stipe]

I think there is a bigger problem that blinkers on or off won't solve.

In my opinion he is either sore somewhere or as Freda suggested the C. S. Hayes busted his gut up against a very seasoned horse.

I also think Lane went too early on him.

[nomates]

53 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I think there is a bigger problem that blinkers on or off won't solve.

In my opinion he is either sore somewhere or as Freda suggested the C. S. Hayes busted his gut up against a very seasoned horse.

I also think Lane went too early on him.

I do agree regarding Lane going too early , i was thinking watching it "he's exposing him too soon ". His last 150mtrs was poor , not sure if tired from the previous run or more along the lines of what Clayton said regarding the horse not being used to horses coming up along side and not being used to it and wasn't really sure how to react , certainly appeared to be having a good look . No matter where they decide to go , IMO i'd put the blinkers on and ride him stone cold and saved for one crack . Blinkers wont make him go any faster than he can but that's not their purpose , they can't make a horse go faster than their engine allows , they will focus him and hopefully get him to run to his full potential . Whether that is good enough at this level time will tell .

[Dark Beau]

He had a “gut buster” under McDonald and simply hasn’t had a proper chance to get over it. 
I all honesty I expect him to regress even more in the All Star Mile. 
I wish I saw it another way, but I don’t. 
 

[Ronaldo]

Now at a vet's clinic after having back problems.  There had  be something wrong when he got beaten by horses in that race that he breezed past in his first start over there.  If he'd finished a well beaten 2 nd or 3rd you'd have thought just beaten by better horses but he's heaps better than many of the others who finished in front of him. 

[Rusty]

Catalyst coming home. Bruised fetlocks. 

[All The Aces]

Boom three-year-old New Zealand galloper Catalyst has been withdrawn from the $5m All Star Mile after suffering a multiple fetlock injuries following his run in the Australian Guineas.

Trainer Clayton Chipperfield has advised Racing Victoria stewards that his star horse Catalyst has been withdrawn from the All Star Mile field after suffering bruising to the horses four fetlocks.

[Chief Stipe]

If you look at the C. S. Hayes run again you'll see his galloping action is different to his normal style and it got worse in his Guineas run.

I suspect he has something else wrong probably a back problem which they have referred to.

Nothing to do with blinkers!

[All The Aces]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

If you look at the C. S. Hayes run again you'll see his galloping action is different to his normal style and it got worse in his Guineas run.

I suspect he has something else wrong probably a back problem which they have referred to.

Nothing to do with blinkers!

Exactly and his run on Saturday was terrible from him. For horses to run past him like that showed there was something wrong and it was no surprise that they undertook scans etc with him. 

The Einstein on the other site meanwhile stated "His run wasn't that bad on Saturday. Just not up to it on the day." 

 

[Chief Stipe]

It didn't look that "rough" a race to me.  Maybe the track condition played a part too.

 

[mardigras]

On 4/03/2020 at 10:34 AM, All The Aces said:

The Einstein on the other site meanwhile stated "His run wasn't that bad on Saturday. Just not up to it on the day." 

 

Odd comment. Whoever the Einstein is, seems to be spot on. Hardly Einstein level though. The comment is obvious.

Or would you like to say that he was up to it on the day? Go for it. Because the result wouldn't agree.

And would you say his run was terrible on Saturday? Go for it. Beaten 4.3 lengths by a star in a G1 - if that's terrible, I'd like to have one like that.

You should be more worried about the idiots views than the Einstein's views. So please expand, are you agreeing with the 'Einstein' or would you like to suggest you disagree? If you disagree, please tell us which part you disagree with? Not that I need a good laugh, but what the heck, go for it.

[All The Aces]

What's wrong with being called Einstein? Truly I am in absolute awe your powers and that you would deign to communicate with us mere mortals.

I mean, a horse that had won a maiden down South in October, had not started since due a several injuries and who had run 5th of 6 in a trial two weeks before resuming ( a trial that you didn't even bother watch) and you state that you were confident it would win. That is genius.....real Einstein stuff. Surely you must be flattered. A mere mortal such as myself I had to watch the trial to make up my mind and then reaffirm after looking at the horse in the back parade ring.

So after reading that you thought Catalyst's run on Saturday wasn't that bad I am again feeling such inadequacy. You see I thought his run was poor for him as posted earlier on this thread . Fourteen days earlier in the CS Hayes Stakes Alligator Blood beat him by a head but this time kicks his head in by over four lengths and 1kg worse off at the weights. Three horses that finished behind Catalyst in the CS Hayes, Chenier, Soul Patch and Dalasan, the latter two some three lengths in arrears all beat him home in the Guineas, again all three meeting him 1kg worse at the weights. His action was poor in the Guineas and it has come at no surprise that he is suffering injury necessitating a spell back home in NZ.

However, the conundrum I now face, seeing you thought the run wasn't bad, is do I contact Clayton Chipperfield and tell him a punting icon, a genius of Einstein proportions felt he went ok in the Guineas. So perhaps they should continue into the The Allstar Mile after all?

What to do...…. 

 

     

     

Edited March 5, 2020 by All The Aces

[mardigras]

7 hours ago, All The Aces said:

So after reading that you thought Catalyst's run on Saturday wasn't that bad I am again feeling such inadequacy. You see I thought his run was poor for him as posted earlier on this thread . Fourteen days earlier in the CS Hayes Stakes Alligator Blood beat him by a head but this time kicks his head in by over four lengths and 1kg worse off at the weights. Three horses that finished behind Catalyst in the CS Hayes, Chenier, Soul Patch and Dalasan, the latter two some three lengths in arrears all beat him home in the Guineas, again all three meeting him 1kg worse at the weights. His action was poor in the Guineas and it has come at no surprise that he is suffering injury necessitating a spell back home in NZ.

However, the conundrum I now face, seeing you thought the run wasn't bad, is do I contact Clayton Chipperfield and tell him a punting icon, a genius of Einstein proportions felt he went ok in the Guineas. So perhaps they should continue into the The Allstar Mile after all?

What to do...…. 

 

     

     

So now you are actually thinking horses are robots. Horse A beats Horse B - therefore that's what would be expected again, otherwise the run is terrible. I didn't say the run wasn't bad. I said the run wasn't that bad. If you could read, you would have noted it was a comparative statement to some earlier posts.

Yep, a terrible run no doubt. From a horse that had had, one prior start over 1600m. In a Group 1. Won it on a  Good 3. On a track that delivers similar times to Flemington for higher rated horses running on a Good 3.

Then the horse comes out and runs faster at Flemington over 1600m than when he won, over 1600m, and his run is terrible.

No wonder you have to tell us the winners after they've won.

[Fred]

Comparing times is stupidity

[mardigras]

15 minutes ago, Fred said:

Comparing times is stupidity

If you say so. I'm pretty confident however, that the horse that runs the fastest from the starting point to the finish line - is usually called the winner.

And I must be stupid since I've been winning at punting for 20+ years - and comparing times has been the biggest factor in that for all those years. Must have been lucky I guess.

And Catalyst had never run faster in a race over 1600m than he did last Saturday. 

Somehow, the first time he met Alligator Blood, I priced Catalyst at 2.66 and Alligator Blood at 2.58 - pretty close. How did the race pan out?

The second time he met Alligator Blood, I priced Catalyst at 9.60 and Alligator Blood at 1.90 - quite a variance. How did the race pan out?

[All The Aces]

Well Einstein, if you are going to apply the theory of relativity then at least compare apples with apples not grapes to watermelons.

He has only run one  other 1600m which was back in November and the 1000 Guineas in NZ was nothing more than a dawdle and a sprint home down the straight with Catalyst breezing by after being held up and shouldering another runner at the 400m to run his last 600m in 32:16. His last 600m by the way on Saturday was 33.59.

The comparison more aligned to apples with apples must surely be as I have already highlighted. All four horses he met in the CS Hayes that started in the Guineas despite all four being 1kg worse off at the weights were able to improve by at least three and a half lengths on him. Alligator Blood left him in his wake this time and the other three that he easily beat all beat him home this time.

 

  

Edited March 5, 2020 by All The Aces

[Fred]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

If you say so. I'm pretty confident however, that the horse that runs the fastest from the starting point to the finish line - is usually called the winner.

And I must be stupid since I've been winning at punting for 20+ years - and comparing times has been the biggest factor in that for all those years. Must have been lucky I guess.

And Catalyst had never run faster in a race over 1600m than he did last Saturday. 

Somehow, the first time he met Alligator Blood, I priced Catalyst at 2.66 and Alligator Blood at 2.58 - pretty close. How did the race pan out?

The second time he met Alligator Blood, I priced Catalyst at 9.60 and Alligator Blood at 1.90 - quite a variance. How did the race pan out?

As a self proclaimed expert you have a lot to learn

timing methods vary in different countries yet you compare Australian and New Zealand times

Track ratings differ between the two countries also -yet you consider them the same

Everyone wins at punting -some though lose more than they win

[mardigras]

24 minutes ago, Fred said:

As a self proclaimed expert you have a lot to learn

timing methods vary in different countries yet you compare Australian and New Zealand times

Track ratings differ between the two countries also -yet you consider them the same

Everyone wins at punting -some though lose more than they win

Where am I a self proclaimed expert? I am a professional. By being a professional builder, does that make the builder a self proclaimed expert on building? Odd thinking.

I am always happy to learn. But in this case, it is you, for all your years, have forgotten the most basic. Perhaps next time learn not to assume stuff.  Try that in the future. See how you go.

The things you've assumed I do, I don't do. 

I'll have a go at assuming something. I'm assuming you fit the category of your very last statement. Don't worry, you have a lot to learn and can always improve.

 

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, All The Aces said:

Well Einstein, if you are going to apply the theory of relativity then at least compare apples with apples not grapes to watermelons.

He has only run one  other 1600m which was back in November and the 1000 Guineas in NZ was nothing more than a dawdle and a sprint home down the straight with Catalyst breezing by after being held up and shouldering another runner at the 400m to run his last 600m in 32:16. His last 600m by the way on Saturday was 33.59.

The comparison more aligned to apples with apples must surely be as I have already highlighted. All four horses he met in the CS Hayes that started in the Guineas despite all four being 1kg worse off at the weights were able to improve by at least three and a half lengths on him. Alligator Blood left him in his wake this time and the other three that he easily beat all beat him home this time.

 

  

You are the one that is thinking Catalyst's run on Saturday was terrible. I don't think it was that bad. Below expectations by a little perhaps. I've stated why. And your only reasoning is that the horse didn't run like a robot and beat the same horses it beat last time.

I hardly think your example is comparing apples with apples. Between the two runs, the condition of the track and the distance were both different. 

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, mardigras said:

You are the one that is thinking Catalyst's run on Saturday was terrible. I don't think it was that bad. Below expectations by a little perhaps. I've stated why. And your only reasoning is that the horse didn't run like a robot and beat the same horses it beat last time.

I hardly think your example is comparing apples with apples. Between the two runs, the condition of the track and the distance were both different. 

I think it was significantly below his best.  Although he ran half a second faster than his 2000 Guineas win his last 600m was 2 seconds slower.  One of his slower last 600m in his career.

In my opinion Lane went too soon on him but in saying that his galloping action looked off - in that he seemed to be over-reaching.

He'll keep.

[Fred]

4 hours ago, mardigras said:

Where am I a self proclaimed expert? I am a professional. By being a professional builder, does that make the builder a self proclaimed expert on building? Odd thinking.

I am always happy to learn. But in this case, it is you, for all your years, have forgotten the most basic. Perhaps next time learn not to assume stuff.  Try that in the future. See how you go.

The things you've assumed I do, I don't do. 

I'll have a go at assuming something. I'm assuming you fit the category of your very last statement. Don't worry, you have a lot to learn and can always improve.

 

You call yourself a professional - I assume you aspire to being a professional punter yet you do not know the basics like the different timing systems and track classifications between N Z and Australia