Dipshit & his brother

[barryb]

Where have T & ATA gone?, incredible how those 2 seem to take a holiday together.

The Chief catches T out on a complete bullshit and he goes away sulking with his brother.

[theshu]

Yes funny how they are both noticeable by their absence. Hopefully they have both gone to another site to F  that one up like they have tried to do to this once good site. Personally i think if they are gone,this site will get more contributors. JMO. I know i for one would start to visit the site more instead of reading all the crap that the local village idiot spurts out. 

[SLB2.0]

It's also funny how you give them attention when they're clearly trying not to attract it upon themselves.

Who's the real attention seeker here, Barry?

[Mark D]

1 hour ago, SLB2.0 said:

It's also funny how you give them attention when they're clearly trying not to attract it upon themselves.

Who's the real attention seeker here, Barry?

Yip Barry you're being negative again

[All The Aces]

Not interested in discussing Rita or Racing Bill Submissions etc but concentrating on backing winners Bazza.

You might enjoy this.

https://bit.ly/2CqaGEN?fbclid=IwAR2dGgRLteMB10ZQ6Du5uC2Jal2Rex1dPUwwyd_k0k81E-Tz-1o-QKkrMWo

 

[SLB2.0]

Great to listen to as I sit here doing the form.

More pro punters need exposure, especially to the general public, who think we are down at the local TAB all day every day.

[All The Aces]

Where have ballbag Bazza and his brothers gone?    

Absolutely nothing regarding the pro-punters video. 

[SLB2.0]

ATA - do you believe you need a database to be a successful professional punter? I believe both of them said yes, but I know a lot of pros who don't use databases as the be-all end-all of punting.

Also interesting how one of them exclusively bets on Victorian maidens. You wouldn't see that every day, but sticking to what you know best is always a great strategy. 

[SLB2.0]

Something you find funny, Leo?

[mardigras]

4 hours ago, All The Aces said:

Absolutely nothing regarding the pro-punters video. 

What would you like to discuss from the video. Nothing particularly starting from the punting side of things. Mostly pretty standard stuff I would have thought.

But I certainly agree with the comments about taxing bookies etc and how good it would have been if they had done things differently way back, and had bookies offering fixed odds - excluding the ability to offer tote derivative prices. And keeping tote as a valid offering.

Pretty well exactly what I stated 13 years ago pre the shift of the TAB to offer fixed odds. It's funny how no one wanted to consider that back then, and now we have a couple of guys suggesting the same thing. All too late of course. And in NZ's case, just how sad the results are to the industry of getting it so badly wrong.

[curious]

3 hours ago, mardigras said:

Pretty well exactly what I stated 13 years ago pre the shift of the TAB to offer fixed odds. It's funny how no one wanted to consider that back then, and now we have a couple of guys suggesting the same thing. All too late of course. And in NZ's case, just how sad the results are to the industry of getting it so badly wrong.

And here's a bit of the hard data from OIA requests shortly after that which evidence the risk they took for the huge increase in costs.

Domestic Racing 2008/09     2009/10     2010/11     2011/12     Turnover GBR   Turnover GBR   Turnover GBR   Turnover GBR FOB 42,591,832 4,059,581   52,709,045 1,628,421   57,310,826 6,688,593   70,615,380 8,683,330 % margin 9.53%     3.09%     11.67%     12.30%

[Chief Stipe]

Thomaas has probably spat the dummy because his posts are now under moderation.  He hasn't made any posts since I made that decision.

He is NOT banned.

The reason I made the decision to moderate him was I had reached the point where I had had enough of his belligerence.

The tipping point was his continued repeat posting of a racially offensive phrase albeit under disguise.

I had to hide the particular post repeatedly after he continued to post it even though he was warned.

He bit the hand once too often.

[mardigras]

On 24/02/2020 at 2:41 PM, mardigras said:

What would you like to discuss from the video. 

 

On 24/02/2020 at 10:33 AM, All The Aces said:

Absolutely nothing regarding the pro-punters video. 

Seems that whilst barry had nothing to comment on regarding the video you put up, that you don't have anything regarding the video yourself.

Did you notice the top factors from Mark. Ability and fitness. I'm surprised he didn't mention things like down in grade, gear changes, 3yo after Christmas or apprentices in the wet in his top 5. Perhaps your brother should send him the blue print.

Edited February 25, 2020 by mardigras

[SLB2.0]

Nothing about barriers either, right?

[Fred]

3 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Thomaas has probably spat the dummy because his posts are now under moderation.  He hasn't made any posts since I made that decision.

He is NOT banned.

The reason I made the decision to moderate him was I had reached the point where I had had enough of his belligerence.

The tipping point was his continued repeat posting of a racially offensive phrase albeit under disguise.

I had to hide the particular post repeatedly after he continued to post it even though he was warned.

He bit the hand once too often.

At least he kept the site alive/

[All The Aces]

On 2/24/2020 at 12:26 PM, SLB2.0 said:

ATA - do you believe you need a database to be a successful professional punter? I believe both of them said yes, but I know a lot of pros who don't use databases as the be-all end-all of punting.

Also interesting how one of them exclusively bets on Victorian maidens. You wouldn't see that every day, but sticking to what you know best is always a great strategy. 

If you have the time to build a database then do so as it certainly doesn't hurt and you can adapt to how you want to use it however these days there are enough websites with so much information re form, with ratings and video's you can easily use these successfully if applied properly.

I did think it was interesting, and what I believe also is the different ways one can bet to make a profit. You will note that both bet in different jurisdictions and different markets with Dan happy to bet on maiden races in Victoria. Each to their own specialization, different strokes for different folks but making use of what is successful for their individual approach. There is no one rule for all. 

    

[All The Aces]

7 hours ago, mardigras said:

 

Seems that whilst barry had nothing to comment on regarding the video you put up, that you don't have anything regarding the video yourself.

Did you notice the top factors from Mark. Ability and fitness. I'm surprised he didn't mention things like down in grade, gear changes, 3yo after Christmas or apprentices in the wet in his top 5. Perhaps your brother should send him the blue print.

 

Well they did mention 200+ factors in their database and of course they didn't have enough time to go through those so who knows, however, blinkers, draws and movement of running rails were mentioned which are factors that you ignore.

By your own previous admission you don't have the ability to look at a horse to determine it's fitness.  You will also note Dan's" number one" factor was video analysis, again something you don't do.

My interpretation from reading your posts is believing you are a Pittsburgh Phil disciple from the 1880/1890s and of course there weren't video replays, TV coverage etc in those days. You have your database like Phil did and follow his value theory but of course by not knowing how a horse looks or by not doing video analysis you are setting a limitation on your form analysis.

My report card for you is a b+ "not bad but could be much improved if he applied himself better." 

As for Bazza, well we all saw those failed betting systems didn't we.   He gets a big "F

 

      

 

   

[Mooncoin]

Ace, everyone has a data base in there own way, be it on a spreadsheet or a little black book and success (about 20/30 racing bets pa) for me is the bottom line every  12 months and then starting again with a clean slate.

The Pro's like B,M ,C, T  etc would have a totally different approach and maybe they could enlighten us how they foresee their systems. 

I see someone  else is blaming "the gear" for a lose this week. Or was it the weight? Me thinks he was simply out boxed!

A mate of mine who hates the Gypsy King with a passion put those sentiments aside on the weekend and voted head over heart by dropping a monkey (and he's not a  big punter) on Fury after seeing  his condition and guns at the weigh in!

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Mooncoin

[mardigras]

8 hours ago, All The Aces said:

 

Well they did mention 200+ factors in their database and of course they didn't have enough time to go through those so who knows, however, blinkers, draws and movement of running rails were mentioned which are factors that you ignore.

By your own previous admission you don't have the ability to look at a horse to determine it's fitness.  You will also note Dan's" number one" factor was video analysis, again something you don't do.

My interpretation from reading your posts is believing you are a Pittsburgh Phil disciple from the 1880/1890s and of course there weren't video replays, TV coverage etc in those days. You have your database like Phil did and follow his value theory but of course by not knowing how a horse looks or by not doing video analysis you are setting a limitation on your form analysis.

My report card for you is a b+ "not bad but could be much improved if he applied himself better." 

As for Bazza, well we all saw those failed betting systems didn't we.   He gets a big "F

 

      

 

   

How privileged I am to receive a report card from you. We can't give you one since we have nothing to grade you on.

I use hundreds of factors myself, none of them are population statistics based however. Since they are flawed.

To respond to your other points.

Blinkers. Mentioned them almost mockingly. And in somewhat of a conflicting statement. Since they talked about the issue of a horse massively drifting and if it ticks all the boxes, you'd be worried. Even though had talked about a horse that had drifted massively (and that had blinkers on first up) that you could get massive overs on your price. I guess he meant therefore that the 'old school' method of blinkers on wasn't something that ticked all the boxes. Certainly is 'old school', no doubt about that.

I didn't hear much mentioned in relation to draws outside of if they perceived there to be track related fast lane(s). I did hear them say that unless the rail was absolutely the place to be, they'd rather be three wide with cover than on the fence. Haven't they heard of pi?

And yep, I ignore those things. I've never stated what I do is perfect. But these guys have been doing this for 3 - 6 years. I've only been doing this professionally for 20 years. One can always improve.

I've always said there are many ways to go about punting and many ways that can win. I've not said what are the ways that work, I've stated what are the ways that cannot work. Population based statistics applied to horse racing cannot work. If you understand statistics, you'll be able to grasp why. The blue print is all 100% population statistics based.

I don't have the ability to assess fitness by looking at a horse. Quite correct. However, I still do an assessment of the horse's fitness using other information I do have. If I had to look at every horse before it raced to assess fitness, I'd be betting on very few races (and probably none overseas).

Dan's video analysis. Yep, I've never stated video analysis has no place. It just has no place for me. For me to benefit, I'd expect that I would have to analyse (and record), what I discovered for every single horse, every single race. Quite time consuming I imagine. And what for? I don't really need to do it to improve things by some very small % costing me many hours. It's a cost/benefit thing to me.

I don't know who Pittsburg Phil is so don't feel able to comment. But I am happy taking the limitation of not using video analysis and not knowing how a horse looks. Others should be happy since punting is about betting against your fellow punters and by me not doing that, that should give them an edge. 

Interesting to me that the likes of Mark, run a subscription service. You could of course buy his selections for a year for the small price of A$2699. Get on board. I don't want to put you off or anything, but maybe it'd be worth knowing that for the last year, his selections through the service have resulted in bets on 419 races, 91 winners for a loss of 58.74 units (based on his results spreadsheet).

Plenty of winners, but not a lot of what I'd call success. At least he has his subscribers to assist him.

Picking winners is easy, profiting not so easy. In the races I assessed price on last year, I rated over 6000 winners on top. If I'd backed all my top rated runners irrespective of price (at level stake), I'd have just fallen short of breaking even. 

Edited February 25, 2020 by mardigras

[curious]

8 hours ago, All The Aces said:

Well they did mention 200+ factors in their database and of course they didn't have enough time to go through those so who knows  

No they didn't. They mentioned that the big syndicates had that number of factors weighted but they needed to focus on key factors like ability and having a key number to hang their hat on.

[Murray Fish]

12 hours ago, mardigras said:

I don't have the ability to assess fitness by looking at a horse. Quite correct. However.... If I had to look at every horse before it raced to assess fitness, I'd be betting on very few races (and probably none overseas)

you have me down to a t.....  and it can be rather frustrating attempting to base any bet 'on looks/presentation' etc when the pictures presented don't allow you to actually see all the horses in a race!  

[All The Aces]

14 hours ago, mardigras said:

I don't have the ability to assess fitness by looking at a horse. Quite correct. However, I still do an assessment of the horse's fitness using other information I do have. If I had to look at every horse before it raced to assess fitness, I'd be betting on very few races (and probably none overseas).

Dan's video analysis. Yep, I've never stated video analysis has no place. It just has no place for me. For me to benefit, I'd expect that I would have to analyse (and record), what I discovered for every single horse, every single race. Quite time consuming I imagine. And what for? I don't really need to do it to improve things by some very small % costing me many hours. It's a cost/benefit thing to me.

I don't know who Pittsburg Phil is so don't feel able to comment. But I am happy taking the limitation of not using video analysis and not knowing how a horse looks. Others should be happy since punting is about betting against your fellow punters and by me not doing that, that should give them an edge. 

 

And that is why I gave you a rating of B+ and not an A. In my opinion the ability to assess a horse's condition and use video for analysis before and after a race are high on my list of priorities. 

Now before someone goes on about after race I will mention that I went to our local meeting today and backed two horses. Both favourites. Both were from top stables and both had top rider Opie Bosson up. Two strong factors already. The first was Robusto, a horse in good form with the 2200m obviously going to suit her. Happy to take the $2.20FF on her. The other was Exaltation in the last. A horse who won first start at Riccarton last year and was fresh up. She had a recent trial finishing fifth of the six horses and was nine lengths off the winner at the line. Hardly an inspiring form line from that trial on paper however by looking at the video of that trial a totally different perspective is gained. She got up and won very nicely after being held up and paid $2.10 on the tote but earlier you could have got over $3s on her. I went and looked at her in the back parade ring noted how well she presented and promptly put some more on. Here is her trial the other day.

 

      

[mardigras]

ATA, that's all fine. But I note I priced Exaltation at 1.74 and I didn't see the condition of the horse in the parade ring, and didn't watch any trial. Each to their own, so long as you don't suggest you can apply some population based stat to form analysis to support your views.

Edited February 26, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

9 hours ago, mardigras said:

ATA, that's all fine. But I note I priced Exaltation at 1.74 and I didn't see the condition of the horse in the parade ring, and didn't watch any trial. Each to their own, so long as you don't suggest you can apply some population based stat to form analysis to support your views.

Thomass loves these. Here are my prices before the track condition changed and the last race scratching. How long did you spend watching videos and checking out their condition pre-race? 

[All The Aces]

You seem to under an assumption that I check every video of every horse in every race.  If you have been constantly following form that is not necessary, although one of my rules is to look at any trial of one in a field.    

For example I was already clear on Robusto's form and runs coming into the race and knew the 2200m would suit and as already stated happy with the $2.20FF that I could get around him. 

With regard to Exaltation (a half sister to Melody Belle) she hadn't raced since her debut win because of injury so there were two reasons I looked at the trial video. 1 As stated above I look at every trial if a horse has trialed in the race & 2 because of being off with that injury I wanted to assess where she was fitness wise. I was very happy with what I saw in that trial so backed her accordingly.

The bonus was, because I was on-course I was also able to view her close up which gave me even more confidence where she was at, so I had another go at her as I was confident she was indeed ready. Relatively simple I would have thought and hardly time consuming plus I didn't have to go and put an actual price on every runner as you do. I look at the runner that I believe will win and consider what I will take on that runner.  

PS It won't be her last win.