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Bit Of A Yarn

any longshot tips for today 10 to 1 over


wally

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Im giving Invincible Gem one more crack, Kris Lees horses haven't been going the best the last fortnight but hopefully this one can get me out of the Quagmire!

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23 hours ago, mardigras said:

Some I will be looking at today.

Morphettville R2 #6 Burn Off
Doomben R5 #4 I Am Impinge
Donald R7 #12 Lindsay Alfred
Quirindi R5 #12 Sammi Jain
Beaudesert R5 #4 Ace Stryker
Randwick R9 #13 Timing
Doomben R9 #2 Bassett
Toowoomba R7 #5 The Irons

And some in NZ in different races to barryb

Riccartion R7 #13 Lin
Tauranga R2 #3 Kitaya
Tauranga R6 #9 Its A Kinda Magic
 

Gee.....I hope you only looked at them and not bet on them!! At this rate you could get a job tipping on trackside.....HaHa

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On 23/06/2018 at 10:37 AM, barryb said:

bop R01  5 Come Back Tiger  
bop R03  1 Nailed It        
bop R04  2 El Disparo       
ric R06  7 Elfee            
ric R08  6 Saronic Miss     
bop R08 13 Seconds Out      (huge smokey, taken at $81)

Bloody tough going on those bog nz tracks yesterday....

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6 minutes ago, Kakama said:

Gee.....I hope you only looked at them and not bet on them!! At this rate you could get a job tipping on trackside.....HaHa

Backed two of those Kakama. Both lost. Still, do you expect to get many winners from horses paying $10 plus. Do trackside tipsters show a profit from all their selections - might have to apply if that is the case.

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7 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Backed two of those Kakama. Both lost. Still, do you expect to get many winners from horses paying $10 plus. Do trackside tipsters show a profit from all their selections - might have to apply if that is the case.

Just having you on mate....good to see you posted a few....either a zero or hero when anyone posts tips...

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4 minutes ago, Kakama said:

Just having you on mate....good to see you posted a few....either a zero or hero when anyone posts tips...

Gee - just looked - backed three of them actually. All lost. Still, on this thread, would be easily in profit - does that count me out of tipping on trackside?

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2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Gee - just looked - backed three of them actually. All lost. Still, on this thread, would be easily in profit - does that count me out of tipping on trackside?

You would be too good for trackside. They like all their presenters at the same level.....bad

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OK lets have a go at Singapore. In Race2 it seems between three horses Our Showcase, Fame star, and Autumn Assault.

All three seem to have good trial form. The 2yo's with huge weight advantage in these races really perform well in Singapore.

However Autumn Assault has poor draw and is a bit dicey behaviour wise.

Therefore at 20:1 I think Royal Pavillion with Vorster at 49kg has a great chance. A big 2yo obviously better with time but loooking at his trials I believe he could knock the favourites off.

But N.B. I've been wrong before.

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On 23/06/2018 at 7:32 AM, Portfolio said:

Well, 

No surprises to see what this thread has turned into. Just shows, you only need one know it all to spoil a thread, maybe label a horse rather than the usual bitch fight stuff

Threads develop don't they?

It can be like a virus (Mardi grass) at times...but just inserting a whole bunch of 'tips' at 10's for willy Wally to suck other peeps brains over is a tad f in boring isn't it?

Its best willy develop his own strategies on 'how to' select winners from other punter's years of experience methinks...

Bazza reporting fresh from the course worked well and and was 'value added'

...tips without explanation, like Mardi grasses, is like smoking a pipe full of ink weed...

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On 23/06/2018 at 4:38 PM, barryb said:

its drawn the carpark, idiots like Thomass over react to shit like that.

As I've said before Bazz..I ignore barriers for the punt...most are way overs and good Jockeys often ride for luck...

What I do, post race, is factor in neddys caught wide..especially without cover

Thats a big part of form analysis obviously...slow, over racing, checked, unlucky et el

This is part of form analysis 101...

Keewees going to Oz better be at the top of their game...

or they'll be badly found out...as many have yet again

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2 hours ago, Thomass said:

...tips without explanation, like Mardi grasses, is like smoking a pipe full of ink weed...

They come with an explanation. They are based on having a greater % chance than a price of $10+ suggests. Seems to have worked out that way as well.

And that explanation happens pre race as well. Like the selections do.

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It's not helping willy long term if you're successful...

Its a brief moment in time to make your jingles jangle...nothing more

B/s like algorithms don't work here...that's why you can't operate on NZ racing

...just stick to Gundy Gai...and eeking out a small % to buy your magic mushrooms for the day...

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It helps a lot more than things like blinkers on, 3yo after Christmas down in grade, 3kg claimers in the winter or any of the myriad pieces of advice you've given. 

Since they lead to the poor house. 

As for long term, no one's individual selections on here can lead to long term success. But if a punter is able to work out chance well (which is the basis for my selections) then that can certainly lead to long term success. And that would be the best advice I can give - after the advice of ignoring every idea you go on about to do with punting,  of course.

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11 minutes ago, curious said:

Which is why I put the chance estimate alongside my Gulfstream tip. It lost but I didn't back it anyway at 7/2. Nor the one that was first time in blinkers or lined up with any of Thommo's other theories.

Estimate to what correlation?

When you put your finger up its ass...it felt warm enough to become a 20% chance?

...oh your algorithms are all about sectionals aren't they?

...but nothing extra if the trainer estimates...like you do at 20%...it'll improve an extra 5% with the Blinkers on...after observing it running around gawking....all curious like...

...then Harry Houdini forgot to tell you where the fast lane was after he walked the track...bug her

#shouldhavestayedinbed

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Estimates are not to do with any correlation or I'm not sure what you mean by that. If there's anything that will improve a fit horse by 5% please let me know. That's the difference between a decent maiden and Black Caviar. And no, I don't use sectionals at all. I find them irrelevant, but that's just me.

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