How long will we remain in Level Four in New Zealand?

[curious]

23 hours ago, curious said:

Now 25. 2 in ICU I see

Now 34 I see. 40% < 40 which seems surprising for a disease that only seriously affects the elderly and those with underlying conditions.

[curious]

On 28/08/2021 at 10:24 AM, Brodie said:

Curious, you are a mental health expert, that doesnt think that lockdown doesnt  affect mental health?

Just to be clear Brodie, I don't think I ever said that or even thought it.

[Chief Stipe]

4 hours ago, curious said:

Now 34 I see. 40% < 40 which seems surprising for a disease that only seriously affects the elderly and those with underlying conditions.

How many of the under 40 have comorbidities?  

60%+ of the Pasifika population are obese.

Another issue is the "abundance of caution" approach.  They will be measuring oxygen levels and assessing alongside comorbidities.

[curious]

9 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Ioannidis is probably the world leader on meta-analysis.  So far he seems to be accepted by ALL sides of research.

Yes it's a very clever systematic analysis especially since he had to patch data together from media reports and whatever from most places. A bit irrelevant to NZ though. Seroprevalence research here suggested a figure of about .1% cf. > 10% in the likes of the US and Europe where the pandemic has been poorly controlled. Don't think Ioannidis included any NZ data.

"The very low seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand implies that undetected community transmission has been limited. This seroprevalence is broadly similar to a recent study conducted in the low prevalence city of Sydney in Australia [3], and markedly lower than estimates of >10% from serosurveys in Europe and North America where the pandemic has been poorly controlled (https://serotracker.com).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8365046/

[Brodie]

The funniest things I heard on the radio today for a long time came from our expert Michael Baker!

You could bot make this up lol.

He stated that there was no evidence of the virus being contracted when outdoors and therefore didnt think it was necessary for us to be wearing masks outside, and yet our medical expert Ardern is telling us to wear them outside to stop the spread lol!

Ne also stated that he had no evidence of the virus being caught off hard surfaces and questioned the need to be locking business down to clean it! Lol

You couldnt make this up!

You are listening to a bunch of loonies!!!!

[Freda]

On 28/08/2021 at 9:32 AM, curious said:

 

I am a MH professional and have educated 100s of mental health professionals. 

Can I send you my flatmates?   

Now there's a challenge.

[Chief Stipe]

11 hours ago, curious said:

Yes it's a very clever systematic analysis especially since he had to patch data together from media reports and whatever from most places. A bit irrelevant to NZ though. Seroprevalence research here suggested a figure of about .1% cf. > 10% in the likes of the US and Europe where the pandemic has been poorly controlled. Don't think Ioannidis included any NZ data.

"The very low seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand implies that undetected community transmission has been limited. This seroprevalence is broadly similar to a recent study conducted in the low prevalence city of Sydney in Australia [3], and markedly lower than estimates of >10% from serosurveys in Europe and North America where the pandemic has been poorly controlled (https://serotracker.com).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8365046/

Ask the question why the Government hasn't done any comprehensive seroprevalence testing?

[curious]

2 hours ago, Freda said:

Can I send you my flatmates?   

Now there's a challenge.

Happy to see them, including by Zoom. Might help pay some training bills.

[curious]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Ask the question why the Government hasn't done any comprehensive seroprevalence testing?

They have. That's what the above is. Funded by the MBIE.

[Chief Stipe]

31 minutes ago, curious said:

They have. That's what the above is. Funded by the MBIE.

I take it you are not a scientist?

Don't you see the flaws in the survey?

[curious]

10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I take it you are not a scientist?

Don't you see the flaws in the survey?

Other than the noted limitations, what flaws do you see?

[Chief Stipe]

3 minutes ago, curious said:

Other than the noted limitations, what flaws do you see?

Before I start on that don't you find it disturbing that 6 of the seropositive samples were traced back to CONFIRMED Covid-19 cases?  Aside from the questions it raises about the "randomness" of the sampling I would have thought that given the relatively short time frame of the pandemic that Covid-19 recovered individuals would be excluded from being blood donors?

[Freda]

1 hour ago, curious said:

Happy to see them, including by Zoom. Might help pay some training bills.

Oh, they don't pay, their ills are medicated at the expense of the taxpayer....grrr.

Two are former meth users, another just uses cannabis, but at forty - plus and using since teenage years, disfunctional in the workplace except in small ( six weeks ) doses.  Then the need to get up in the morning beats her and she leaves or gets the sack.

The other is a current user and boy,  does he have issues. 

[Chief Stipe]

First flaw:

Am I correct that the sampling is skewed i.e. Auckland and Waikato are significantly underrepresented in the sample?  

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, Freda said:

Oh, they don't pay, their ills are medicated at the expense of the taxpayer....grrr.

Two are former meth users, another just uses cannabis, but at forty - plus and using since teenage years, disfunctional in the workplace except in small ( six weeks ) doses.  Then the need to get up in the morning beats her and she leaves or gets the sack.

The other is a current user and boy,  does he have issues. 

Geezus Freda - are good flatmates that hard to get in Christchurch?

[Chief Stipe]

30 minutes ago, curious said:

Other than the noted limitations, what flaws do you see?

Second Flaw:

They only tested for IgG antibodies in the first instance but did do further antibody type investigation on the positive samples.  IgG testing alone does not prove there has been a past infection of Covid-19.  A number of reasons for this:

1. IgG levels rapidly drop off;
2. This is accentuated in asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 where in some cases IgG is not produced and in most they decline more rapidly than symptomatic cases.  Research shows that at least 40% of asymptomatic cases become sero-negative to IgG very quickly.  Even symptomatic cases show a rapid decline with about 10% becoming sero-negative during the recovery phase of their illness;
3. I'm not sure but focussing on the Spike protein response is flawed......I need to do more research on that BUT we have seen the antibody response to those vaccines e.g. Pzifer that focus on the Spike protein.

[Chief Stipe]

BTW I'm naturally sceptical of a research paper that makes political conclusions I.e. "this study proves that the New Zealand lockdown strategy has been successful...."

[curious]

36 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

First flaw:

Am I correct that the sampling is skewed i.e. Auckland and Waikato are significantly underrepresented in the sample?  

Yes. However the authors covered that issue by noting that because of the very low sero-positive incidence finding, the 'n' turned out to be too low to analyse and compare sub-samples

[curious]

11 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

BTW I'm naturally sceptical of a research paper that makes political conclusions I.e. "this study proves that the New Zealand lockdown strategy has been successful...."

Where did you see that. Not in my version that I can see.

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, curious said:

Where did you see that. Not in my version that I can see.

Ok I paraphrased.....

This study provides robust, serological evidence of New Zealand's successful elimination strategy ahead of vaccine roll-out

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, curious said:

Yes. However the authors covered that issue by noting that because of the very low sero-positive incidence finding, the 'n' turned out to be too low to analyse and compare sub-samples

That's a cop out.  It doesn't excuse the fact that the "random" sample is skewed.  The question is why?  The % of samples from each region should have been the same % as that regions population weighting.  

[curious]

53 cases. All in AKL. No unexpected watewater results. We can do this.

[Nowornever]

56 minutes ago, curious said:

53 cases. All in AKL. No unexpected watewater results. We can do this.

The media are pulling the wool over your eyes and the rest of New Zealand.

Yes the cases dropping by 64% is great news. What they don't like you to work out is that the number of tests also dropped by over 60% so false advertising is more likely the case in this situation!

[curious]

31 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

The media are pulling the wool over your eyes and the rest of New Zealand.

Yes the cases dropping by 64% is great news. What they don't like you to work out is that the number of tests also dropped by over 60% so false advertising is more likely the case in this situation!

I haven't seen any media reports only the MoH release. However wouldn't a drop in testing rates likely be due to a fall in new close contact numbers and people experiencing symptoms, so be expected?

[Chief Stipe]

First Vaccine related death.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126225003/covid19-woman-with-medical-issues-dies-from-myocarditis-rare-side-effect-of-pfizer-vaccine