holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: Just a little bit more value. Haha,too funny. Her form does not stack up =$19...more than I assessed her at. Quote
nomates Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: I can't see her running top 4 in that field...mind you I have been wrong.....b4! No Never . Quote
nomates Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: $19's!!!....what do you want in life? You don't give her much hope , so i want 60's . 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Haha,too funny. Her form does not stack up =$19...more than I assessed her at. Well I reckon might be able to get more. Quote
nomates Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Haha,too funny. Her form does not stack up =$19...more than I assessed her at. Can't see her running top 4 but rate better than 19's , odd ???? Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, nomates said: Can't see her running top 4 but rate better than 19's , odd ???? Not really ..there are 15 in the field,the fav is @4's,the outsider @60's....she is the 8th highest rating,has a nice draw and aussies top hoop. 19's is good value imo. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Not really ..there are 15 in the field,the fav is @4's,the outsider @60's....she is the 8th highest rating,has a nice draw and aussies top hoop. 19's is good value imo. So on that basis you'll be having a lick? Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 TAB NZ has her at 15's which isn't good value at all. Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: TAB NZ has her at 15's which isn't good value at all. 15/16 is about my rating. Over 1400M Entriviere beat Icebath,and ran 3rd to Vangelic/Nimalee...a line through that form,if you consider Amarelhina better ,makes it an enticing proposition,one would think. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: 15/16 is about my rating. Over 1400M Entriviere beat Icebath,and ran 3rd to Vangelic/Nimalee...a line through that form,if you consider Amarelhina better ,makes it an enticing proposition,one would think. Well give you more credit than @Thomass unlike him you've actually put something up BEFORE the race! Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: TAB NZ has her at 15's which isn't good value at all. Typical NZ TAB 'bookies'....wait for aussie prices to come out,then shorten them up a few points....hopeless! Quote
nomates Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Typical NZ TAB 'bookies'....wait for aussie prices to come out,then shorten them up a few points....hopeless! They know they will get NZ money so the gutless pricks are protecting themselves as usual . 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, nomates said: They know they will get NZ money so the gutless pricks are protecting themselves as usual . But how much do they lose? Isn't that hard to open an offshore account. I'd take the 19's but wouldn't look at 15.1 Quote
nomates Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: But how much do they lose? Isn't that hard to open an offshore account. I'd take the 19's but wouldn't look at 15.1 Most people can't be bothered with offshore acct's , too much hassle , and a vast majority are simple working folk so not that tech savvy , no matter what the TAB or cretins think , so they will take what is on offer and the bookies know that . Historical betting would show them that these sort of unders are still taken . Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 10 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: But how much do they lose? Isn't that hard to open an offshore account. I'd take the 19's but wouldn't look at 15.1 How much the horse is paying shouldn't affect its performance. If you think it can win ,you back it. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: How much the horse is paying shouldn't affect its performance. If you think it can win ,you back it. Yes you definitely belong to the @Thomass school of punting. I'm looking for value relative to what I assess its chances of winning are. 1 Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Yes you definitely belong to the @Thomass school of punting. I'm looking for value relative to what I assess its chances of winning are. What do you assess its chances of winning at? You said you would take 19's...have you?I expect it will shorten. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 Aegon is at 26's TABCORP - only 18's TAB NZ!!!! A bit of value there as Baker will have him wound right up. If he starts! Draw a shocker. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 27, 2021 Author Posted October 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: You said you would take 19's...have you?I expect it will shorten. Is that the JMac factor? Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Is that the JMac factor? Partly. As for Aegon,alot of the big guns have horror draws in that race.With Apache Chase and Ellsberg in good slots,hopefully the field breaks up a bit.Rosehill is a real frontrunners track. Quote
Doomed Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 4 hours ago, holy ravioli said: How much the horse is paying shouldn't affect its performance. If you think it can win ,you back it. That's a strange way of punting. Every horse has its price. Quote
holy ravioli Posted October 27, 2021 Posted October 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, Doomed said: That's a strange way of punting. Every horse has its price. The horse doesn't know what its paying. There are so many variables to consider and often luck is the decisive factor. Pricing horses is usually done by strict form analysis..i.e what is known about performance. Why did Romancer pay $124.50 to win early this year? Quote
Chief Stipe Posted October 28, 2021 Author Posted October 28, 2021 Damn. Got no show now! Flemington hosts the VRC Derby, Empire Rose Stakes and the Hotham Handicap where a win would elevate them into the Melbourne Cup. Amarelinha(Race 5, No 9) 9. Amarelinha (4) J: James McDonald (56.5kg) Flucs:$16, $17.97, $14.5 $17 AMARELINHA (Race 5 No 9) There will be no room for the faint hearted at the finish of this race. This Kiwi mare has form over further having won the Sunline Vase at 2100m and the NZ Oaks over 2400m at Trentham – she may have had enough when fourth in the Australian Oaks. Her two runs this time in have been fair, I did like the last start when she carried 59kg giving at least 3kg to all her rivals and was three wide yet battled on well to go down two lengths to Mirra Vision, a horse she meets 5.5kg better. She has form going the Melbourne way having won at Te Rapa and Trentham, she is one for one third-up and James McDonald rides from a soft draw. I will be including Hungry Heart in exotics. BET: EACH-WAY Quote
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